CFB Week 3 Preview
College football gave us plenty to chew on through the first two weeks, and now we’re getting into the part of the schedule where we can finally start figuring out which teams are actually good and which ones spent two weeks beating up on glorified tackling dummies.
I’ve got five games on my radar this week, starting with a couple of Friday night games before we get into a loaded Saturday.
We’ve got a team total I want no part of going over in Winston-Salem, an under in a ranked Big 12 matchup in Lubbock, a ranked ACC game where I’m trusting the home team, Alabama looking for revenge, and then the main event in Oxford, where Lane Kiffin might need a police escort just to get from the team bus to the sideline.
Let’s get into it.
Miami at Wake Forest
The play: Wake Forest Team Total Under 17.5
We’re getting the week started Friday night in Winston-Salem, and I’m going to immediately do something incredibly fun: root for a team to not score.
Give me Wake Forest team total under 17.5.
On the surface, this probably looks a little crazy. Wake Forest is 2-0 and has scored exactly 38 points in each of its first two games.
That number needs a little context.
Wake’s 38 against Purdue came in double overtime after the game was tied 23-23 at the end of regulation. The Demon Deacons also opened the season by putting 38 on Akron.
Gio Lopez has looked really good since transferring in from North Carolina. He’s thrown for 575 yards through two games without an interception.
But Wake’s rushing success hasn’t just been Lopez running around playing backyard football. Ty Clark was the story on the ground against Akron, ripping off 105 yards on only seven carries. Lopez did become more of a factor with his legs against Purdue, leading Wake with 59 rushing yards and scoring twice.
So Miami has to defend both.
The Hurricanes have allowed 13 total points through two games, and their defense hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown yet. Seven of those 13 points came on a Florida A&M fumble return in a game Miami won 77-7.
That’ll do.
Yes, the competition Miami has faced deserves to be mentioned. Stanford and Florida A&M aren’t exactly 2019 LSU. But the Hurricanes have allowed just 406 total yards across those two games.
The biggest concern with this bet isn’t Wake running the football.
It’s Lopez throwing it.
Wake has already shown it can create explosives through the air. Two of Lopez’s touchdown passes against Akron went for more than 70 yards. And when you’re betting a team total under 17.5, one busted coverage can completely change the complexion of the bet.
That’s especially worth mentioning with Miami banged up at corner.
So I’m not pretending 17.5 is some wildly mispriced number. Miami is laying around 20.5 with a game total around 55.5. Do the math and the market is basically telling you Wake should score right around this number.
I’m just taking the under side of it.
I think Miami’s front can make Wake work for everything, and I don’t think Wake is going to consistently string together long scoring drives against this defense.
There’s also a reason I’m playing the team total rather than laying three touchdowns with Miami.
I don’t need Miami to score 45.
They can win 31-10. They can win 34-13. They can have one of those weird Friday night road games where the offense takes a quarter to wake up. I genuinely do not care.
My entire handicap is that I don’t believe Wake Forest gets to 18.
Wake has looked good. Lopez has looked good.
Going from Akron and Purdue to this Miami defense is a slightly different fucking sport.
Miami 34, Wake Forest 13.
Houston at Texas Tech
The play: Under 52.5
We’re staying with Friday night football and heading to Lubbock for a ranked Big 12 matchup between Houston and Texas Tech, and I’m going to continue doing something that is never particularly fun: root for punts.
Give me the under 52.5.
My projected score here is 27-20. That’s 47 points, giving me more than a field goal of room underneath this 52.5 total.
Texas Tech is obviously the more talented team, but I think Houston is built to make this game ugly enough to keep the score down.
Willie Fritz has quietly done a really nice job with this program, and Houston comes into this game 2-0 with what has been an absolutely suffocating run defense. Through two games, the Cougars are allowing just 10 rushing yards per game.
Yes, Southern is doing some heavy lifting for that number, but Houston also held Oregon State to 26 yards on the ground in Week 1.
There is a pretty obvious counterargument here.
Houston gave up 376 yards through the air against Oregon State, while Texas Tech allowed 413 passing yards in its matchup with the Beavers.
So no, these secondaries haven’t exactly been the Legion of Boom.
And both teams’ games against Oregon State went over.
I’m aware.
This is more about how I expect this particular game to be played.
Will Hammond has been extremely efficient to start the season, completing 76.7% of his passes, but Texas Tech hasn’t exactly been asked to chase points yet. Hammond has thrown for 487 yards with two touchdowns and an interception through two games.
On the other side, Houston has a veteran quarterback in Conner Weigman who has been around long enough that I don’t expect the environment in Lubbock to completely rattle him. He’s completing 69% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception.
And I actually think that’s important for an under.
I don’t need Houston to light up the scoreboard. In fact, please don’t.
I need them to sustain drives, run the football, avoid handing Texas Tech short fields and generally make this game as annoying as possible.
Texas Tech has owned this series lately, winning seven straight against Houston, including 35-11 last season. But I’m not particularly interested in laying more than a touchdown in a ranked conference game against a Willie Fritz team.
There are definitely paths to this game flying over if either secondary starts getting torched.
I’m betting on Fritz being able to keep Houston competitive enough that the game never completely opens up.
Give me long drives, field goals, punts and every other thing that makes your friends ask why the hell you’re watching a football game on a Friday night.
Texas Tech 27, Houston 20.
SMU at Louisville
The play: Louisville ML
This one is pretty simple for me.
I’m taking Louisville at home.
SMU is really good. Kevin Jennings is really good. I’m not going to sit here and pretend otherwise just because I’m betting against them.
But there is one Jennings number that immediately jumped out at me: 19 career interceptions on the road compared to just five at home.
That is not a typo.
And we just watched SMU turn the football over four times at Florida State in Week 1.
Now Jennings has to go into Louisville for a ranked conference game against a Jeff Brohm team that I think is much better than its 1-1 record suggests.
The Cardinals lost their opener to Ole Miss 41-38 on a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer after coming all the way back from a 14-point deficit. Then they turned around on a short week and put 59 on Villanova while piling up 635 yards of offense.
Lincoln Kienholz has also given Brohm a legitimate running threat at quarterback. He has 111 rushing yards through two games, and Louisville’s read-option game has been extremely effective.
And I don’t want to oversell SMU’s defensive performance against Florida State as some giant weakness, because it wasn’t.
SMU outgained Florida State 585-330 and held the Seminoles to 2-of-15 on third down. The Mustangs played well enough defensively to win that football game.
They just kept giving the damn thing away.
Four turnovers.
That’s what I’m interested in here.
And then there’s last year.
SMU beat Louisville 38-6.
That sounds pretty terrible until you remember Louisville went into that game without its starting quarterback and without Isaac Brown or Keyjuan Brown. They essentially showed up to Dallas missing half the offense and got their doors blown off.
Now SMU has to come to Louisville and deal with the actual version of this offense.
Louisville is sitting around -1.5, with the moneyline priced accordingly. I’m willing to pay the small premium to remove the spread from the equation entirely.
Give me the moneyline.
I trust Brohm at home, I like what Kienholz’s legs add to this offense, and Jennings’s road turnover history is enough to make me think Louisville gets an extra possession or two.
Just win the game.
Louisville 34, SMU 31.
Florida State at Alabama
The play: Alabama -19.5
Normally, laying nearly three touchdowns in a game between Alabama and Florida State would make me want to throw up.
Not this year.
Give me Alabama -19.5.
I think they beat the brakes off Florida State.
Obviously, we have to start with what happened last year. Florida State stunned Alabama 31-17 in Tallahassee in the season opener.
It wasn’t some fluky game where Alabama turned it over five times and somehow lost. Florida State ran the ball down their throat, controlled the game and flat-out beat them.
I have a feeling Alabama remembers.
Kalen DeBoer can give us the coach speak about this being a new season and a new team all he wants. That’s great. Very mature. I’m sure nobody in that locker room remembers getting embarrassed by Florida State on national television last year.
Now Florida State has to make the return trip to Tuscaloosa, and I think they’re walking into a buzz saw.
The funny part is that I wasn’t completely sold on this Alabama offense coming into the season.
I’m starting to wonder if they might actually be pretty damn good.
Last week against Kentucky was almost two completely different football games. Alabama was a mess offensively in the first half. Keelon Russell threw two interceptions, lost a fumble, Alabama had FIVE rushing yards and they went into halftime trailing 17-13.
Then somebody apparently reminded them they were Alabama.
They came out in the second half and absolutely demolished Kentucky.
Alabama scored 32 unanswered points, piled up 215 yards of offense after halftime and didn’t allow a single point. Kentucky managed just 62 second-half yards.
What looked like a potential upset at halftime ended 45-17.
That’s the version of Alabama I’m betting shows up Saturday.
Now let’s acknowledge the obvious issue with laying 19.5.
Alabama averaged only 5.4 yards per play against Kentucky. Both of these teams have played at relatively slow tempos. Florida State also had last week off, so they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game.
The market has Alabama -19.5 with a total around 48.5. That’s basically an implied score in the neighborhood of 34-14.
I’m calling for 41-13.
So yes, I’m making a much more aggressive statement about Alabama’s offense than the market is.
That’s intentional.
Russell is still going to make some young-quarterback mistakes. I’m not expecting him to suddenly turn into Peyton Manning because he had a good second half against Kentucky.
But the talent is obvious.
And if Alabama can run the football effectively and keep Russell out of obvious passing situations, everything gets significantly easier for him.
Florida State is 1-1 after losing at home to SMU despite forcing four turnovers. Now they have to go into Bryant-Denny and face an Alabama defense that just completely suffocated Kentucky for an entire half.
Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels can absolutely hurt you with his legs. Alabama should know that better than anybody. Daniels was Auburn’s quarterback last season and ran for 108 yards against them in the Iron Bowl.
But if your path to staying within three touchdowns in Tuscaloosa is Ashton Daniels repeatedly bailing you out against this defense, good luck and God bless.
The number is enormous.
I understand that.
I just don’t think it’s enormous enough.
Florida State embarrassed Alabama last year. Now Alabama gets them at home, Florida State is walking into Bryant-Denny after a week off, and Alabama’s offense finally showed me something in that second half against Kentucky.
Maybe that second half was a mirage.
I’m betting it wasn’t.
I don’t want Florida State plus the points. I don’t want to tease them. I don’t want to find some cute way to convince myself 19.5 is too many.
I want Alabama to put them in a locker.
Alabama 41, Florida State 13.
LSU at Ole Miss
The play: Ole Miss +3
And now for the main event.
Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford.
There are revenge games, and then there is leaving Ole Miss before its College Football Playoff run to become the head coach at LSU and coming back to Oxford nine months later.
And let’s not skip over what happened after he left.
Pete Golding took over as Ole Miss’s head coach and led the Rebels to two CFP wins.
So now Kiffin gets to walk back into Oxford wearing LSU colors while the guy who replaced him is standing on the opposite sideline.
I’m sure everyone will be very normal about this.
Give me the home dog.
The official play is Ole Miss +3.
I’m taking the points because they’re being offered to me. That doesn’t mean I think I’ll need them.
The biggest question entering Saturday is Sam Leavitt.
Or at least Lane Kiffin would like us to believe it is.
LSU came out Wednesday and listed Leavitt as doubtful with an upper-body issue. That seemingly came out of nowhere. Leavitt played against Louisiana Tech, spoke after the game and there wasn’t much reason publicly to believe LSU might be without its starting quarterback six days later.
I call bullshit.
Maybe Leavitt really is banged up. It’s football. Everybody is banged up.
But this has Lane Kiffin gamesmanship written all over it.
And apparently I’m not alone. There has reportedly been skepticism inside the Ole Miss program about just how sincere that original doubtful designation was.
Then Thursday came around.
Leavitt returned to practice and magically went from doubtful to questionable.
Shocking development. Who could have possibly seen that coming?
The funniest part is that the SEC specifically has rules designed to prevent teams from using availability reports for gamesmanship. If a school is found to have intentionally submitted inaccurate or misleading information, there can be fines and additional punishment.
So if this is Lane screwing around, there’s a chance his little magic trick eventually comes with an invoice from the conference office.
At this point, it feels like Kiffin is more focused on psyching out his old team than he is on what actually happens between the white lines.
Maybe that’s exactly what he wants.
Make Ole Miss prepare for multiple quarterbacks. Create another distraction. Get everybody talking about whether Leavitt is actually playing. Turn the entire week into the Lane Kiffin Show.
Congratulations, Lane. It worked.
I still think Leavitt plays.
And if he does, he’s thrown four interceptions through two games, including three against Louisiana Tech.
Now you’re asking him to go into what will probably be the most hostile environment he plays in all season, potentially at less than 100%.
There’s also a fascinating familiarity element here.
Golding spent years working alongside Kiffin, while LSU offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was also part of that Ole Miss staff.
These guys aren’t exactly meeting each other for the first time at midfield.
I’m not going to pretend Ole Miss has been the ’85 Bears defensively. The secondary has been a legitimate concern, and LSU absolutely has the talent to punish them.
But LSU hasn’t played anything remotely resembling what they’re walking into Saturday night, either.
Ole Miss already survived a real test against Louisville in Week 1, winning 41-38 at the buzzer. Trinidad Chambliss has also taken much better care of the football than Leavitt so far.
And I don’t think this turns into the shootout the 58.5 total suggests.
That’s actually one of the things I like most about getting Ole Miss +3.
My projected score is 27-23. That’s 50 total points, more than a touchdown below the market total.
I see this being much more of an SEC fistfight where possessions become increasingly valuable as the game goes on.
Ole Miss doesn’t need Chambliss throwing for 400 yards. Protect the football, stay ahead of the chains, make LSU repeatedly drive the length of the field and let Oxford get progressively more insane every time Leavitt walks back onto the field.
And if I’m right about the game being lower scoring, those three points become even more valuable.
Sometimes college football isn’t that complicated.
Top-10 rivalry game. At home. Three points in my pocket. Against the coach who left your program for the team standing across from you.
If Ole Miss can’t get up for this one, they should probably cancel the football program and turn Vaught-Hemingway into a Costco.
I think it’s tight into the fourth quarter. I think the crowd matters. I think LSU makes a mistake or two.
Ole Miss +3 is the play.
But my prediction?
I don’t think we need the points.
Ole Miss 27, LSU 23.
Five games. Two Friday night appetizers and three Saturday games I’m going to be glued to.
There are some uncomfortable numbers on this card. Laying 19.5 with Alabama isn’t exactly bargain shopping. Betting a team total under 17.5 and then watching every Wake Forest possession is probably a great way to develop a medical condition. And taking three points against LSU requires trusting Ole Miss in one of the biggest games Oxford has hosted in years.
But that’s what makes this week fun.
Give me Wake to stay under 18, Houston and Texas Tech to keep it ugly, Louisville to protect home field, Alabama to get its revenge in emphatic fashion, and Ole Miss to send Lane Kiffin home from Oxford with a loss.
See you on the other side.
