College Football Week 4: Picks & Preview
College football is finally starting to give us the good stuff.
We’re done pretending we learned something because a ranked team beat Directional State University by 47 points. Conference play is here, the schedules are getting real, and we’re starting to figure out which teams are actually good and which teams spent the first few weeks catfishing us.
Week 4 gives us a little bit of everything. We have Friday night football, massive spreads, ranked conference games, potential look-ahead spots, the Battle of the Orange, a trip to The Swamp and a USC defense that I would like to personally thank for its service to overs everywhere.
Seven games made the card this week. Let’s get into it.
Northwestern at Indiana: Indiana -20.5
Finally, Indiana gets a night game.
The Hoosiers haven’t been pushed yet this season. They’ve outscored North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky by a combined 145-16, capped by a 38-0 shutout of WKU. Even then, they sleepwalked through stretches before getting going. Maybe all they needed was to stop playing football in conditions that feel like the surface of the sun. A night game in Bloomington, cooler weather (low 60s at kickoff) and the start of the Big Ten title defense could be exactly what this team needs.
What stands out is how clean they’ve been. Indiana is second in the country in fewest penalty yards and has turned it over once in three games.
I’m still very high on Josh Hoover. He’s 37-of-51 for 649 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 17.5 yards per completion, and he looks extremely comfortable running this offense. Charlie Becker already has six receiving touchdowns, and Turbo Richard has 315 rushing yards and four scores. I think there’s another level here we haven’t completely seen yet.
Now, credit where it’s due: Northwestern is 2-0 and not a pushover. The Wildcats beat South Dakota State, the No. 2 team in FCS, and then hammered Colorado 41-7. Aidan Chiles was Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after that one. But they’ve done it at home, at a temporary lakefront stadium in front of about 12,000 people. Friday is their first road game, at night, against the defending national champions.
Northwestern’s path to covering is takeaways. They forced four turnovers against Colorado. The problem is Indiana doesn’t give the ball away. And Northwestern just let Colorado run for 180 yards at 5.5 a carry. That’s a bad sign with Turbo Richard coming.
One honest note: this line opened at Indiana -23.5 and has come down to -20.5, with the total climbing from 47.5 to 49.5. The market is leaning Northwestern. I’m happy to take the better number.
This feels like the week Indiana puts together four quarters instead of making us wait around for them to wake up.
The Play: Indiana -20.5
Prediction: Indiana 42, Northwestern 17
Clemson at Cal: Cal +1.5
Friday night in Berkeley. 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
Give me Cal.
Clemson remains a mega fade for me. I watched Bill Belichick’s North Carolina team completely fall apart after the lightning delay last weekend, and Clemson deserves credit for coming back from 17-3 down to win 28-20. But I’m not suddenly convinced everything is fixed.
The Clemson offense is still a dumpster fire, even with the quarterback change. True freshman Tait Reynolds makes just his second career start Friday.
And the defense has problems of its own. Clemson has allowed 25 runs of 10-plus yards this season, dead last in FBS, and gives up 181.7 rushing yards per game. Funny enough, all 11 of North Carolina’s 10-yard runs came before the lightning delay. That tells you more about UNC collapsing than about Clemson being fixed.
Now they have to turn around on a short week, fly across the country and play a late Friday game in Berkeley. Clemson has never played a conference game on the West Coast, and this is its first-ever trip to California Memorial Stadium. This is about as weird of an ACC game as you could have drawn up when conference realignment started.
Cal’s quarterback is excellent.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had a rough season opener in a 45-24 loss to UCLA. He was sacked three times and threw two interceptions. Since then? No picks, five touchdown passes in the last two games, and a career-high 413 yards on 27-of-33 passing against Wagner last week. He’s at 866 yards and seven touchdowns on the season, and he’s already topped 4,000 career yards in just 16 games. Cal’s line has allowed only four sacks all year.
And that stretch includes Cal going across the country themselves to play Syracuse in an early Saturday kickoff and coming away with a 21-18 win. So I’m not particularly worried about Cal being overwhelmed by the moment.
The Bears also have a ballhawk. Kingston Lopa has five interceptions in three games, three of them against Syracuse. That’s a scary matchup for a freshman quarterback making his first road start.
To be fair, the Syracuse win was ugly. The Orange outgained Cal by nearly 200 yards and Lopa bailed them out. Cal’s run defense ranks 110th, and Clemson running back Gideon Davidson just posted his first 100-yard game. If Clemson can lean on the ground game, this gets tight.
Clemson has the bigger name. They probably have more highly recruited players. I don’t care.
Until this Clemson offense gives me a reason to stop fading it, I’m going to keep doing it.
The Play: Cal +1.5
Prediction: Cal 27, Clemson 20
Illinois at Ohio State: Illinois +28
This is less about me believing Illinois is secretly great and more about the situation Ohio State finds itself in.
Ohio State has to go to Iowa next week.
That screams look-ahead spot. It’s the Buckeyes’ first trip to Kinnick since 2017, and Iowa is ranked and 3-0 with one of the best defenses in the country.
You’re asking Ohio State to completely empty the tank against an in-conference opponent when they have a ranked road game waiting the following week. They also just made their point last week by beating the hell out of a lowly Kent State team 59-3. That came after choking away the Texas game with an epic fourth-quarter collapse, blowing a 23-3 lead in Austin and losing 24-23.
Message received. Ohio State can still flex its muscles. ESPN’s FPI still has the Buckeyes as the No. 1 team in the country, even after the loss.
And for what it’s worth, I think this Ohio State defense is for real. Ohio State’s defense has been legitimate, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry, one of the best marks in the country. That’s actually part of why I like Illinois getting four touchdowns. When your defense is suffocating teams and you’re up big, there’s no reason to keep pressing on offense.
I can see Ohio State controlling this game from the beginning, getting out to a comfortable lead and then taking its foot off the gas. They don’t need style points here. They need to win, stay healthy and move on.
Illinois isn’t great. The Illini lost to Duke 31-27 and rank 86th in yards per play allowed. But they can score. Katin Houser has put up good numbers, and Illinois has hit the over in all three of its games. That’s what you want from a big dog: an offense capable of a garbage-time backdoor.
For context, Ohio State beat Illinois 34-16 last October in Champaign. That’s an 18-point margin in a game the Buckeyes cared about. This is also Illinois’ first trip to Columbus since 2017, and this game means a hell of a lot more to Illinois than it does to Ohio State.
Four touchdowns is a lot to lay in that situation.
Ohio State wins comfortably. Illinois sneaks inside the number.
The Play: Illinois +28
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Illinois 13
Texas at Tennessee: Texas -4.5
The Battle of the Orange.
No. 1 Texas hits the road Saturday for the first time this season, and it’s the program’s first-ever trip to Knoxville. Neyland is obviously a completely different environment from anything they’ve dealt with so far. Add College GameDay, a presidential visit and Peyton Manning in the building, and this is about as loud as a noon kickoff gets.
I still like Texas.
Arch Manning has been uneven. He’s 59-of-96 for 661 yards, seven touchdowns and two picks. He threw for 305 and four touchdowns against Texas State, struggled most of the day against Ohio State before leading a 21-0 fourth quarter comeback, then went just 16-of-32 for 161 yards against UTSA. The deep ball is still the issue. He’s completing about 44% of his throws of 15-plus yards, the same rate as last year.
But I think this could be the game where we finally see Arch really get things going with his legs. He ran it 10 times for 53 yards against UTSA, and that mobility gives this offense another dimension that becomes especially valuable on the road when things inevitably break down.
More importantly, I think this Texas defense is legit. The Longhorns allow 12 points per game and under 300 yards per outing. Since the first half of the Ohio State game, they’ve allowed three field goals. Last week they held UTSA to 142 total yards and stopped 10 straight third downs.
Tennessee has looked good offensively, and the numbers are loud: 47.7 points per game, 298.7 rushing yards per game (fourth nationally) and freshman Faizon Brandon without an interception on 64 attempts. But look at who produced those numbers: Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State. The Vols’ strength of schedule ranks 104th. This is by far the best defense they’ve seen, and Brandon’s first real exam.
There’s a weakness on the other side, too. Tennessee’s defense has given up 10-plus yards on 18% of carries, which ranks 128th nationally. New coordinator Jim Knowles built Ohio State’s 2024 title defense, but he’s got work to do.
There will probably be a stretch where Neyland gets rocking and Texas has to weather it. That’s the test when you go on the road in the SEC. It’s also the one real knock on this team: Texas went 0-5 against the spread on the road last year and scored just 31 first-half points across those five games.
But over four quarters, I trust Texas’ talent and defense.
Arch makes a few plays with his legs, the defense gets enough stops, and Texas walks out of Knoxville with its first road win of the season.
The Play: Texas -4.5
Prediction: Texas 35, Tennessee 27
Ole Miss at Florida: Ole Miss +3.5
So square it’s sharp.
Trinidad Chambliss is the truth.
Pete Golding is the next star coach in college football.
And apparently everyone and their mother has suddenly become aware of the concepts of a “letdown spot” and a “trap line.”
Here’s the setup: No. 4 Ole Miss opened as a 2.5-point underdog at No. 21 Florida, and the line has since moved to 3.5. A top-five team getting more than a field goal from a team ranked 21st, and the number is moving toward the home team. Everyone wants to be the smart guy.
I can’t do it.
When the town drunk at the bar starts explaining to me how much he loves Florida on Saturday because “the line says it’s all Florida” and “Vegas is begging you to take Ole Miss,” that’s all I need to hear.
Sometimes the better football team is just the better football team. Ole Miss already has wins over Louisville and LSU, which is as good a résumé as any Power Four team in the country right now.
Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury he suffered in the Rebels’ win over LSU, which sucks. There’s no sugarcoating that. The X-rays were negative and Golding said it wasn’t as bad as feared, but there’s a real chance he’s limited or out. Lacy torched Florida for 224 yards and three touchdowns in Ole Miss’ win last year. And even with him, the Ole Miss ground game has been thin: 342 rushing yards as a team through three games.
But this Ole Miss team has already been battle tested, and Chambliss has played on the biggest stage and performed. He’s 77-of-110 for 924 yards with seven passing touchdowns, two rushing scores and just two picks. He threw for 363 yards against LSU with Lacy banged up. He’s the Heisman favorite at +310 for a reason.
I’m done waiting for him to turn back into a pumpkin.
Florida’s offense has looked great.
But against who?
The Gators beat FAU and FCS Campbell by a combined 118-24, then won a 44-39 shootout at Auburn. That Auburn game is the tell. Florida gave up 39 points, and afterward Jon Sumrall said he was more worried about his defense than his offense.
Jadan Baugh is excellent. He’s second in the country with 458 rushing yards, has eight touchdowns and is averaging 8.5 yards a carry. Florida is talented. The Swamp is going to be rocking. I understand every reason why this is supposed to be the spot where Ole Miss finally slips.
But Baugh is the whole show. Aaron Philo has been efficient, but he hasn’t thrown more than 22 times in a game and his season high in rushing is 22 yards. If Ole Miss loads the box and makes Philo beat them, I like their chances.
This isn’t some cute September story that’s going to disappear the second the schedule gets difficult. This team is a legitimate national championship contender. Golding has this program playing with the type of toughness that travels, and when you combine that with a quarterback who has repeatedly shown he isn’t afraid of the moment, I’m willing to take my chances getting more than a field goal.
I think it’s tight. I think Florida gives them everything they can handle.
Then the class rises to the top.
The Play: Ole Miss +3.5
Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Florida 28
Oregon at USC: Oregon Team Total Over 31
USC’s defense is terrible.
Don’t overthink it.
That’s really the handicap. But let’s show our work anyway.
USC is 4-0 and ranked 12th, and the offense has been a tank: 39-plus points in every game, with Jayden Maiava leading the country in passing yards and touchdowns. The defense is a different story. The Trojans rank 98th in early-down EPA per play, and they’ve gotten there against a soft schedule. The average SP+ offensive ranking of the teams they’ve played is 89.7, and the best of the bunch was Rutgers at 54th. Rutgers still put up 460 yards on them. USC also gave up 26 second-half points to San Jose State, 20 to Louisiana and 21 to Rutgers.
Oregon should drop 50 on this defense.
The Ducks made it a point last week to score 84 points on poor Portland State. Apparently Portland State had to die for Oregon’s sins.
Dante Moore went from being talked about as the surefire No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft to people suddenly asking questions after Oklahoma State shut him down. Reports had him tipping run vs. pass with his stance. Supposedly that’s fixed. Either way, the numbers are still there: 849 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions, with the offense ranked sixth in SP+ and scoring 31 or more in all three games. Oregon is averaging 49.7 points and 501.3 yards per game.
Oregon has already taken a punch this season, and now they get a ranked opponent, on the road, with a defense that should give them every opportunity to get the offense rolling.
Here’s the math that makes this bet. Oregon is a short road favorite, around 2.5 to 3.5, and the game total sits around 62.5. That implies roughly 32.5 to 33 points for Oregon. So the market’s own numbers say 31 is too low before we even factor in how bad this defense is.
The risk is the offensive line. It’s allowed seven sacks already, and Moore struggles under pressure. Indiana sacked him nine times in two games last year. But USC’s pass rush hasn’t proven much. Five of its eight sacks came against Fresno State.
Forget trying to figure out whether Oregon covers the full-game spread. I don’t need USC to cooperate.
Just give me the high-powered Oregon offense against this pathetic USC defense and let me live with the result.
Thirty-one points isn’t enough.
I think this one flies way above the number.
The Play: Oregon Team Total Over 31
Prediction: Oregon 52, USC 35
Iowa at Michigan: Michigan -5.5
This Michigan defense is national championship level.
The Wolverines have allowed 39 total points in three games and 220 yards per game, 10th in the country. They held Western Michigan, Oklahoma and UTEP to 150, 289 and 221 yards. They’re top 10 nationally in passing yards allowed, tackles for loss, total defense and sacks.
The question is whether somebody can finally unlock the puzzle that is Bryce Underwood.
The early returns are mixed. He’s 40-of-64 for 504 yards and three touchdowns, and he’s actually Michigan’s leading rusher with 156 yards and two scores. He needed a last-second touchdown to beat Western Michigan 13-12, went 9-of-17 for 111 yards against Oklahoma, then bounced back with 19-of-25 for 223 and two scores against UTEP. The real concern is ball security: Michigan has fumbled six times and lost four.
If someone can unlock him, this team can legitimately make the College Football Playoff this year and maybe even win a game once they get there.
Because everything else is there.
This matchup is interesting because Michigan is basically a better version of what Iowa wants to be.
Defense. Physicality. Run the football. Make the opponent miserable. Turn the game into a rock fight and see who survives.
Fine.
I’ll take the team I think is better at it.
Iowa’s defense numbers look great on paper: 6.5 points per game allowed, second nationally. But look at the résumé. Northern Illinois, Iowa State and FCS Northern Iowa, good for the 119th-ranked strength of schedule. The one real opponent, a mediocre Iowa State team, took the Hawkeyes to the wire in a 16-13 rivalry game. That didn’t exactly leave me rushing to the window to back Iowa against a Michigan defense like this. Michigan, meanwhile, beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10.
There’s also a situational angle here that nobody’s talking about. Everyone’s circling Ohio State’s look-ahead to Iowa. Well, Iowa has one too. The Hawkeyes host Ohio State next week, then go to Washington on a Friday night. Kirk Ferentz has also dropped four straight to Michigan.
I was on the fence between taking the under and laying the points with Michigan. With the total at 39.5, I could easily see this becoming the exact disgusting Big Ten football game the number suggests.
But ultimately, I trust the Kyle Whittingham side more. It’s the first time he and Ferentz have ever met.
Michigan doesn’t need Underwood to suddenly become a Heisman quarterback. They just need him to hold on to the football, avoid putting the defense in terrible situations and make enough plays to separate.
The defense handles the rest.
The Play: Michigan -5.5
Prediction: Michigan 20, Iowa 10
Final Thoughts
This is the kind of college football Saturday we’ve been waiting for.
No more trying to convince ourselves that Alabama beating Southwest Arkansas A&M by 56 points taught us something. We’ve got ranked teams on the road, hostile environments, conference games that actually matter and enough potential chaos to ruin half the country’s parlays before dinner.
There’s definitely a theme to my card this week. I’m not scared of the obvious. I think Texas is better than Tennessee. I think Ole Miss is better than Florida. I think Michigan is a better version of Iowa. And I think USC’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed if you handed them a box of tissues.
Sometimes we make this shit way more complicated than it needs to be.
Of course, this is college football, so by approximately 3:47 Saturday afternoon I’ll probably be staring at my television wondering how a 28-point underdog has suddenly forgotten how to tackle and why I voluntarily do this to myself every weekend.
But that’s the deal.
Seven plays. Seven strong opinions. A full Saturday of meaningful football.
We finally made it to the good part of the season.
