College Football Week 5 Preview
Ten plays.
That might be a few more than I normally want on a college football card, but apparently the books decided to hang a bunch of numbers I like this week, so here we are.
We’ve officially reached the point of the season where September résumés start getting exposed. Everybody looked great beating Directional State University by 38. Now conference play is here, teams are actually playing opponents with a pulse, and we’re starting to figure out who is actually good and who spent the first month of the season catfishing us.
There’s a pretty clear theme to this week’s card. We’re taking points with teams I think are being undervalued, fading a few hype trains, attacking some very questionable defenses, and, most importantly, grabbing every hook the books are dumb enough to leave lying around.
We even get a Friday night appetizer before Saturday turns into complete degeneracy.
Let’s get into it.
Friday Night Lights: Pittsburgh +3 at Virginia Tech
Two undefeated teams. Friday night. Blacksburg. Enter Sandman.
I already know what the broadcast is going to sound like.
You just can’t understand how loud it is down there unless you’ve experienced it.
Cool.
The crowd isn’t playing defense.
Against FBS opponents, Pitt is putting up 6.4 yards per play while allowing 4.6. Virginia Tech is sitting around 5.2 offensively while allowing 5.6.
That’s a pretty massive efficiency gap.
Virginia Tech also just had to fight for its life to beat Boston College 21-14 as a two-touchdown favorite. James Franklin left Penn State, but apparently the habit of making easy games as stressful as humanly possible followed him to Blacksburg.
Now, I’m not pretending there isn’t risk here.
It’s Pitt’s first road game. Mason Heintschel is walking into one of the louder environments in college football. Jeff Overton just ran for 209 yards against Boston College.
And, most importantly, Pat Narduzzi is still Pat Narduzzi.
There is approximately a 97% chance he does something in the fourth quarter that makes absolutely no sense and forces me to stare at my television wondering why I bet on a football game coached by this man.
But I think Pitt is the better team.
Give me the field goal.
If you can find +3.5, even better. Shop around for the hook. That half-point looks useless until somebody loses 24-21 and you’re either celebrating or staring at your betting app like it personally betrayed your family.
The play: Pittsburgh +3
Alabama at Mississippi State Over 60.5
I don’t need to figure out who wins the Kamario Taylor vs. Keelon Russell Heisman pageant.
I just need points.
A lot of them.
Alabama is averaging 48 points per game. Mississippi State is averaging 43. Alabama is 4-0 to the over.
Taylor has already thrown 14 touchdowns, including nine from 20-plus yards. Meanwhile, Alabama’s pass defense is allowing 7.8 yards per attempt.
That’s not exactly the combination I’m looking for when trying to bet an under.
The final scores make Alabama’s defense look better than the secondary has actually played. They’ve had stretches where opposing quarterbacks have moved the ball, and now they’re dealing with an offense that isn’t afraid to play fast and take shots.
Mississippi State’s defense isn’t exactly the 1985 Bears either. South Carolina and Missouri both went over 400 yards against them.
So what exactly are we waiting for?
The biggest concern here is turnovers.
Taylor threw two picks against Missouri, and Alabama has the kind of pass rush that can completely wreck a drive. Nothing murders an over faster than a quarterback throwing a pick at the 15-yard line after an eight-play drive.
But I think Alabama scores.
And if Alabama gets ahead early, Mississippi State has to chase.
That’s exactly what I want.
Let Starkville turn into a track meet with cowbells.
The play: Alabama-Mississippi State Over 60.5
Washington Team Total Over 23.5 at USC
I watched Washington’s offensive line against Minnesota.
Unfortunately.
Demond Williams was sacked seven times. Washington ran for 40 yards on 27 carries.
Forty.
On twenty-seven carries.
That’s 1.5 yards per attempt, which is roughly what I average when I get up from the couch to grab another drink.
So why the hell am I betting their team total over?
Because USC plays defense.
USC is scoring nearly 40 points per game and somehow still can’t consistently cover numbers because the defense keeps handing points back like Costco samples.
Oregon just went into the Coliseum and dropped 41 on them.
With USC around -9.5 and the game total around 58.5, the market itself is basically implying Washington around 24.5 points.
I’m sitting here with Over 23.5.
I’ll take that.
I also like the potential game script. If USC scores early and Washington falls behind, Williams is going to be throwing the ball all night. That’s not necessarily a bad thing against this secondary.
And Williams can still create when everything breaks down.
I’m not betting this because I suddenly think Washington has the 2019 LSU offense.
I’m betting it because I don’t trust USC’s defense to hold a competent opponent under 24 points.
There’s a difference.
Sometimes you don’t need to believe in your team.
You just need to believe the other team’s defense stinks.
The play: Washington Team Total Over 23.5
Missouri +5.5 vs. Florida
Florida is 4-0.
Gator fans are happy.
The Gator Chomp is back.
People are probably already looking at flights to Atlanta.
Everybody relax.
Florida’s offense has been built around running the football. They’re averaging 260 rushing yards per game, nearly six yards per carry, and already have 18 rushing touchdowns.
Unfortunately for them, they’re walking into one of the better run defenses they’ve seen.
Missouri is allowing about 100 rushing yards per game at only 2.77 yards per carry. They’ve allowed two rushing touchdowns all season and have been one of the better teams in the country at stuffing runs at or behind the line.
That’s the matchup for me.
If Missouri can take away Florida’s biggest strength, suddenly you’re asking Aaron Philo to go win a road SEC game with his arm.
Maybe he does.
But I’ll gladly take 5.5 points and make him prove it.
Florida’s run defense has also been a problem, which gives Missouri an opportunity to keep this game on schedule and avoid putting everything on the quarterback.
Missouri hasn’t exactly been perfect. The running game has struggled, the red-zone offense has been frustrating, and if Philo comes out dealing, I may spend three hours wondering why I decided to stand in front of the Florida train.
But this feels like one of those games where everybody looks at the records, sees undefeated Florida, and assumes the Gators should roll.
I’m not there.
Home dog.
Better run defense.
5.5 points.
And barbecue.
The play: Missouri +5.5
Auburn +7 at Tennessee
Apparently losing to No. 1 Texas by three points means Tennessee is now awesome.
That’s basically what this number is telling me.
I disagree.
Auburn and Tennessee have extremely similar underlying efficiency numbers. They’re 37th and 38th in adjusted net EPA per play, and Auburn actually owns the better net success rate.
Yet Tennessee is laying a full touchdown.
Why?
Because Neyland is loud?
We’ve already discussed my stance on loud buildings.
Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown is a fifth-year player. He’s been around. I’m not worried about him seeing 100,000 people wearing orange and forgetting how football works.
On the other side, freshman Faizon Brandon just got sacked ten times by Texas.
Ten.
At some point that’s no longer a pass rush statistic. That’s bullying.
His efficiency has also dropped significantly against Power Four competition.
Now, Auburn isn’t exactly a team I’m dying to trust with my life savings. Brown has thrown an interception against all three Power Four opponents, and Tennessee creates a ton of havoc.
Auburn also barely cleared 300 yards against Vanderbilt last week.
Not ideal!
But I’m getting seven.
Seven matters.
A lot.
This has 27-24, 24-20, 28-24 written all over it.
And if Auburn needs a completely disgusting garbage-time touchdown with 34 seconds left to lose 31-27 and cover?
I have no shame.
Cash is cash.
The play: Auburn +7
Baylor +3.5 at Arizona State
Ah yes.
The 10:30 p.m. Eastern Big 12 game.
College football’s way of asking, “How much of a problem do you actually have?”
If you’re still sitting on your couch watching Baylor-Arizona State at 1:15 in the morning, congratulations.
You’re one of us.
Baylor’s defense is the reason I’m here.
That unit was a disaster last season, but new coordinator Joe Klanderman has completely changed it. Baylor is sitting near the top 20 nationally in yards allowed per play and leads the Big 12 with 15 sacks through four games.
That’s a legitimate improvement.
DJ Lagway being healthy again should also raise the ceiling offensively.
And in a game with a relatively low total, +3.5 becomes extremely valuable.
Give me the hook.
There are definitely reasons to hate this bet.
Arizona State is coming off a bye.
They’re at home.
Baylor is playing for the fifth consecutive week.
There have also been indications of respected money showing up on Arizona State.
Beautiful.
Nothing like making a bet and immediately discovering people smarter than you are standing on the other side.
But I’m comfortable taking more than a field goal in what I expect to be a tight game.
I’ll either look smart around 1:30 in the morning or fall asleep angry.
That’s what college football Saturdays are all about.
The play: Baylor +3.5
Miami at Clemson Under 48.5
Miami is averaging more than 50 points per game.
Naturally, I’m betting the under.
Hear me out.
The biggest problem with betting an over here is that it requires Clemson to participate.
I’m not sure Clemson’s offense received that memo.
The Tigers rank near the bottom of the country in basically every offensive efficiency category that matters. They’re 117th in offensive EPA per play, 102nd in success rate, and 133rd in EPA per pass.
Their quarterback has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
They’re routinely sitting in third-and-forever.
Dabo used to have Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson.
Now he’s got vibes, a lake, and some beautiful facilities.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s defense is actually good.
After getting embarrassed by LSU in Week 1, the Tigers have allowed roughly 12 points per game. They’re preventing explosive plays and forcing opponents to put together long drives.
That’s exactly what I want for an under.
Make Miami work.
Make them snap it 10 or 12 times.
Eat clock.
The obvious nightmare is Miami hanging 38 or 41 by itself.
Darian Mensah has been fantastic, and if Clemson starts turning the ball over and giving Miami short fields, I’m going to be staring at 31 points in the third quarter wondering why I thought betting an under involving Miami was a good idea.
But Clemson’s offense is just so limited that I’m willing to take the chance.
If Miami scores 27 or 30, Clemson may not have enough offense to ruin this.
The play: Miami-Clemson Under 48.5
Michigan State +10.5 at Wisconsin
This is probably the ugliest bet on the card.
Which means naturally I kind of love it.
The total is around 43.5.
In a game expected to have this few points, asking Wisconsin to win by 11 is asking a lot.
We’re talking about something like 24-14 or 27-17.
And I don’t trust Wisconsin’s offense enough to comfortably create that kind of margin.
Their receivers just caught seven of 23 targets.
Seven.
You could hand these guys a pizza and I’m not convinced the box makes it safely to the table.
Wisconsin is also coming off a huge 24-20 road win over Penn State.
Now they come home for Michigan State.
That has letdown spot written all over it.
Big win.
Homecoming.
Noon kick.
Opponent nobody is particularly excited about playing.
Michigan State isn’t good. I’m not going to sit here and sell you the Spartans like they’re secretly Ohio State.
They’re 125th on passing downs, 119th in pass explosiveness and 128th in yards per rush. Cam Edwards is probably done for the season.
Watching this offense can feel like watching a Roomba repeatedly ram itself into the same wall.
But that’s okay.
I don’t need them to score 35.
I need them to lose by 10 or fewer.
Give me something gross like Wisconsin 20, Michigan State 13.
Nobody has fun.
Everybody goes home.
Ticket cashes.
Perfect.
The play: Michigan State +10.5
Michigan -5 at Minnesota
Michigan lost to Iowa on the final play despite outgaining them by 144 yards.
That might be the most Iowa football sentence ever written.
Minnesota, meanwhile, beat Washington by three.
The market looked at those two final scores and moved toward Minnesota.
I’m looking underneath them.
Michigan’s run defense is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry and hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown all season.
That’s a major problem for Minnesota.
If the Gophers can’t consistently run the football, they’re asking Drake Lindsey to beat Michigan’s pass rush.
Good luck.
Minnesota absolutely has some things that concern me. They destroyed Washington’s offensive line, Darius Taylor is back, and Bryce Underwood is still a young quarterback going on the road.
But Michigan has dominated this rivalry for basically my entire lifetime and most of several other people’s lifetimes.
Since 1968, Michigan is 44-4 against Minnesota.
At this point the Little Brown Jug has spent so much time in Ann Arbor it should be paying in-state tuition.
I also got -5.
That’s important.
The market has moved higher in spots, so we’re sitting with a good number.
Now Michigan just has to avoid doing that fun thing where they completely dominate a football game statistically and somehow win 23-20.
Please.
Just once.
Win normally.
The play: Michigan -5
South Carolina -2.5 vs. Kentucky
Everybody is burying South Carolina.
Shane Beamer is getting fired.
The season is over.
The message boards have calculated the buyout.
Some guy named “GamecockFan1987” already has a six-candidate coaching shortlist.
Perfect.
I’ll take South Carolina.
Kentucky’s résumé doesn’t do much for me, and the offense has been horrific on third and fourth down. They’re converting those situations at just over 23%.
That’s 136th nationally.
There are 138 teams.
You almost have to try to be that bad.
And now you’re going into Williams-Brice against a desperate South Carolina team whose season basically depends on winning this football game.
Give me the desperate team.
LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina rushing attack should also have opportunities against a Kentucky defense that has been vulnerable on the ground.
Now, I understand why everyone wants to fade Carolina.
The defense has been atrocious in SEC play.
Dylan Stewart is suspended indefinitely.
Sellers has four interceptions.
They’re 1-3 against the spread.
There are red flags everywhere.
This isn’t me walking onto a luxury yacht.
I’m climbing aboard a boat that’s actively taking on water while everyone else is jumping off.
But sometimes that’s where the number is.
And -2.5 matters.
I don’t need South Carolina to suddenly become a playoff team.
I need them to win a must-win home game by a field goal.
If they can’t do that, Shane Beamer might want to avoid checking Twitter after the game.
The play: South Carolina -2.5
The Card
There it is.
Ten plays across Friday and Saturday, ranging from bets I genuinely feel great about to Michigan State +10.5, which is the type of bet that makes you question the decisions that led you to this point in life.
I know what some of you are thinking.
That’s a lot of underdogs.
Correct.
If I’m going down Saturday, apparently I’m going down clutching a fistful of points and screaming about the hook.
But that’s where I landed this week. There are several favorites being priced like they’ve already proven something that I’m not convinced they’ve proven, a few ugly dogs getting numbers I think are too big, and two totals where I think the matchup matters significantly more than the surface-level numbers.
Will all ten hit?
Of course not.
If I could do that, this website would be called Mentally on a Yacht.
But I like the card.
Friday night, we start in Blacksburg.
By 1 a.m. Sunday, Baylor-Arizona State will either have me feeling like the smartest man alive or staring silently at a television while everyone else in my house has been asleep for three hours.
College football is back.
Now we sit back, watch the chaos unfold, and hope the football gods are feeling generous.
