College Football Week 6 Preview: Eight Games, Two Screens, No Plans to Move:
Week 6, and we’ve reached the point where coaches hired ten minutes ago are already getting fired by people with cartoon profile pictures. Penn State can’t stop the run, USC needs a permission slip to leave California, and James Franklin has taken his talents to a new school without leaving the bullshit behind.
Meanwhile, Georgia and Alabama are trying to play the biggest game of the weekend around a hurricane, and Oregon is handing the offense to Nebraska’s ex.
Six plays and two leans this week. A little offense, a little misery, and a weather forecast that’s getting entirely too involved in my weekend. Here’s what I’m on.
Georgia at Alabama: LEAN ALABAMA ML
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Bryant-Denny Stadium
The biggest game of the weekend has a co-star nobody invited: Hurricane Isaias.
ESPN moved College GameDay off the quad and into Coleman Coliseum, so Pat McAfee will finally be told to use his indoor voice. The latest storm projections offer some hope that the worst conditions move through before the night game, and James Spann’s updated outlook has been more encouraging for kickoff. When the local weather legend is becoming part of your football breakdown, you know it’s been a strange week.
As for the football, both teams are 5-0 and 3-0 in the SEC, and neither has had much trouble scoring.
Alabama is the only FBS team to put up at least 45 points in every game. Georgia leads the SEC at 51.4 points per game and hasn’t trailed all season. These teams have spent September treating opponents like they accidentally selected freshman difficulty.
Paul Finebaum is calling Alabama the most complete team in the conference. Finebaum saying something nice about Kalen DeBoer is rarer than an October hurricane, so apparently it’s been a historic week all around.
I lean Alabama at home.
Kirby Smart has yet to beat DeBoer in the regular season, and last year Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game home winning streak. Georgia got its revenge with a 28-7 beating in the SEC title game, which I’m sure nobody in Tuscaloosa has mentioned since. Very relaxed fan base. Famous for letting things go.
Keelon Russell is the other reason.
His ability to tuck the ball and run matters if the passing conditions get ugly. I’d rather have a quarterback who can create something with his legs than watch somebody spend four quarters trying to throw a wet bar of soap through the wind.
The offensive line still needs to hold up. Russell took four sacks against Mississippi State, and getting Jayvin James back would help. I like Alabama’s chances of establishing itself up front at home, but that part has to show up on the field.
The market has flipped, too. Georgia opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the number swung to Alabama -1.5 despite reports of heavy early action on the Bulldogs. That doesn’t win the game for us, but it’s an interesting move toward the home team.
The total has also dropped from 56.5 to 51.5, so the weather has already made its way into the number.
Why is this only a lean? Because I’d like to know whether we’re watching football or twelve separate fumble recoveries interrupted by a weather delay.
If the worst of the storm clears before kickoff, I like Alabama to win a tight one at home. If the conditions linger, one bad snap or slippery exchange can make an entire week of analysis look pretty stupid.
I’m skipping the 1.5 and leaning Alabama straight up at around -125.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Georgia 24
Lean: ALABAMA ML
BYU vs. Iowa State: UNDER 47
Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU has Iowa State on Friday and Notre Dame next Saturday. One is a conference game they need to handle. The other has everybody in Provo checking ticket prices and wondering whether they actually need both kidneys.
That’s the spot.
Iowa State is the dentist appointment the day before your vacation. You show up, answer a few questions, and spend the entire time thinking about something else.
BYU’s offense already looked half asleep last week, finishing with just 216 yards in the win over TCU. The defense handled the heavy lifting, and Bear Bachmeier supplied enough with his legs to get them out of there. It worked, but nobody was asking for the offensive coordinator’s autograph afterward.
I’m expecting another slow start. A few three-and-outs, handoffs into a pile of bodies, and an entire stadium waiting for something more interesting to happen.
And even when BYU wakes up, this offense isn’t exactly built to start chucking it around. The Cougars run for 235.5 yards per game and throw for 179.8. Their defense allows just 75 rushing yards per game and 14.3 points.
Run the ball, stop the run, shorten the game. Your grandfather would love this team. He’d also complain that the players celebrate too much.
Iowa State shouldn’t do much to disrupt that arrangement. Jimmy Rogers has the Cyclones in a transition year, which is a polite way of asking everyone to lower their expectations without lowering their donations. They’re 3-2, with losses to Iowa and Utah, and this isn’t an offense I’m expecting to drag BYU into a shootout.
The danger is Bachmeier deciding he’s tired of participating in our little punt festival. He can create explosive plays with his legs, and a couple of those can turn a comfortable under into me staring at the television at 1 a.m. asking why nobody tackles anymore.
Still, I see BYU doing enough to win and very little to entertain.
Prediction: BYU 24, Iowa State 13
Pick: UNDER 47
Indiana at Nebraska: NEBRASKA +8
Saturday, Memorial Stadium
Nebraska has lost 31 straight games against ranked opponents.
Thirty-one.
The last time the Huskers won one, people were walking into traffic trying to catch Pokémon. An entire generation of Nebraska fans has grown up thinking a ranked win is something their parents exaggerate about.
Fortunately, I’m asking them to cover eight points. We can save the documentary about restoring the program for another week.
Indiana is very good. The Hoosiers are the defending champs, they’ve won 21 straight, and they’re 32-2 under Curt Cignetti. Josh Hoover has thrown 15 touchdown passes without an interception.
That’s the case against this pick, and it’s a pretty substantial one.
But Indiana has shown some vulnerability in the secondary. North Texas’s quarterback went 22-of-28 against the Hoosiers in the opener, and the cornerback group has dealt with injuries and lineup changes. Those early injuries alone don’t tell us who will be available Saturday, but the pass defense has given opponents something to attack.
The pass rush hasn’t consistently erased those problems, either. Indiana was a three-touchdown favorite against Northwestern and won 29-23, recording two sacks and no quarterback hits.
Give Anthony Colandrea time at home, and Nebraska has a chance to move the ball. The Huskers’ scoring offense ranks ninth nationally at 43.6 points per game. They don’t need to hang 40 on Indiana. They need enough sustained offense to keep this within one score.
Then there’s the schedule.
Indiana is playing its second straight road game with Ohio State coming to town next week. That doesn’t mean Cignetti forgets to coach on Saturday, but it does make this a less comfortable spot than the Hoosiers’ record suggests.
Cignetti said he’s never been to Nebraska and is looking forward to it. Somewhere, a tourism employee in Lincoln just printed that quote and framed it.
I’m expecting Indiana to get pushed here. Nebraska has enough offense to stay involved, and at +8, a seven-point loss still gets us paid.
The Huskers can continue their deeply depressing ranked-game tradition. Just keep it respectable.
Prediction: Indiana 30, Nebraska 24
Pick: NEBRASKA +8
UCLA at Oregon: LEAN OREGON -11.5
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Autzen Stadium
Somewhere in Lincoln, a Nebraska fan watched Dylan Raiola carve up USC in an Oregon uniform and found out what it feels like when your ex gets hot after the breakup.
With Dante Moore out as he continues recovering from a concussion, Raiola gets the start against UCLA. In relief against USC, he completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in Oregon’s 41-27 win. That’s a pretty convincing audition.
Honestly, I like this offense with him running it.
This isn’t some freshman getting thrown into the game because he’s the only quarterback who remembered his helmet. Raiola is a two-year Big Ten starter getting an opportunity in a better offense with better players around him.
The line barely moved with Moore ruled out, which suggests the market isn’t expecting Oregon’s offense to fall off a cliff either.
Now let’s discuss UCLA’s 4-0 start.
Bob Chesney’s Bruins haven’t played a team ranked in the top 60 of CBS’s rankings. Their toughest opponent so far has been the 405 at rush hour.
They’re scoring 44.8 points per game, sixth nationally, and I’m not going to pretend winning four games means nothing. But there’s a pretty substantial difference between looking good against that schedule and walking into Autzen.
The matchup gives Raiola plenty to work with.
UCLA’s pass defense ranks 91st, allowing 225.8 yards per game. The Bruins also give away 85.8 penalty yards per game, which ranks 134th nationally.
That’s a lot of free real estate to hand an offense this good. You can survive some dumb penalties against an overmatched opponent. At Oregon, that’s how a manageable drive turns into a touchdown before the broadcast finishes showing the replay.
On the other side, Oregon ranks second nationally in third-down defense, allowing conversions just 21.2% of the time. UCLA is going to have to sustain drives against a much tougher defense while trying to communicate in one of the loudest stadiums in the conference.
The Bruins do have a path to keeping it close. Their run defense ranks 16th, and they’re third nationally in turnover margin at +8. If they limit the run and win the turnover battle, they can make this uncomfortable.
That’s why I’m keeping it as a lean. UCLA hasn’t done anything wrong yet. It just hasn’t been asked to do anything this difficult.
This is the Bruins’ first game as an underdog all season. Autzen is a pretty rude place to discover the difference.
Prediction: Oregon 38, UCLA 24
Lean: OREGON -11.5
Virginia Tech at Cal: CAL +10
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Berkeley
James Franklin lost a close game he should have won.
Good to know some things survive a change of address.
Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499-295, and Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for a career-high 434 yards. The Hokies still lost 35-33 because four turnovers and a missed 36-yard field goal are a pretty effective way to waste an entire afternoon.
Now they get to fly across the country and try to shake that off, with Georgia Tech waiting next week.
That’s a miserable trip even before somebody in the middle seat takes both armrests.
Cal has its own problems. The Bears averaged 18.3 points and 4.4 yards per play in their first three FBS games, and Tosh Lupoi changed play-callers at halftime against UNLV.
At halftime.
That’s breaking up with somebody at the restaurant before dessert arrives. Things have to be going pretty badly for you to decide you can’t tolerate another thirty minutes.
Cal scored 24 points in the second half, so at least there was a response. I’m not declaring the offense fixed, but there was enough improvement to make taking ten at home interesting.
The major condition is Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Cal’s quarterback remains questionable after entering concussion protocol. This pick assumes he plays. If he’s out, I’m off Cal. I’m willing to back an ugly home underdog. I don’t need to audition for a hostage situation.
With Sagapolutele available, I think Cal can do enough offensively to stay within the number against a Virginia Tech team coming off a brutal loss and a long flight.
The Hokies can win. I just don’t need them winning comfortably.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Cal 20
Pick: CAL +10, provided Sagapolutele plays
Duke at Georgia Tech: UNDER 43.5
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pack a poncho. Maybe bring something that floats.
Atlanta is under a flood watch and a high wind watch for Saturday. The forecast calls for heavy rain, possible thunderstorms, east winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts as high as 45. That’s a forecast for the day, so the conditions during the game will matter, but it’s plenty ugly enough to have my attention.
Forty-five-mile-per-hour gusts can turn a punt into a return-to-sender situation. Kicking gets harder, downfield passing gets less reliable, and everybody handling the football gets to experience what it’s like trying to pick up a bar of soap in the shower.
The wind is the biggest part of this for me. Rain is annoying. Strong wind can take entire pieces of an offense off the menu.
Duke is 4-0 under Manny Diaz and has covered every game. The Blue Devils have also been playing in totals considerably higher than this one, while Georgia Tech’s last five conference games have gone over.
Fine. None of those trends gets to put on shoulder pads and block the weather.
Georgia Tech is 1-3 and breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Learning a new offense is difficult enough when you can feel your hands and the play sheet isn’t dissolving.
I expect Duke to lean on the run, play defense, and make Georgia Tech earn its points through long possessions. If the conditions are as bad during the game as the forecast suggests they could be, neither team should be in a hurry to start throwing it all over the place.
The total has already dropped from 50.5 to 43.5, so the weather isn’t some secret I discovered while everyone else was asleep. This number needs a messy game, and that’s what I’m predicting.
The biggest danger is a short field or a defensive or special-teams touchdown. There’s nothing quite like watching two offenses accomplish absolutely nothing and still losing an under because somebody dropped a punt.
I’m taking my chances with the wind.
Prediction: Duke 20, Georgia Tech 13
Pick: UNDER 43.5
LSU at Kentucky: OVER 50.5
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, Kroger Field
Lane Kiffin’s offense is cooking again.
LSU threw for 367 yards and ran for 364 against McNeese, and the Tigers have outscored their last two opponents 98-20.
Yes, McNeese. Hanging 63 on McNeese is like beating your nephew at Madden and making him watch the highlights. Congratulations, you’re an asshole. But LSU did what a good offense is supposed to do against an overmatched opponent: moved the ball however it wanted.
Now it gets a Kentucky defense that stops the run like a screen door stops a hurricane.
The Wildcats rank 66th in pass defense success rate and 96th against the run. South Carolina just ran for 212 yards against them. That’s a pretty inviting situation for Kiffin, who doesn’t need much encouragement to keep scoring.
The part I like is that Kentucky can contribute.
The Wildcats erased a 17-0 deficit at South Carolina and won 35-34 in overtime, with Kenny Minchey finding Willie Rodriguez for the winning two-point conversion. Will Stein went for the win on the road rather than signing everyone up for another round of overtime. I appreciate a coach who respects my Saturday schedule.
Kentucky isn’t coming into this hoping to survive on field goals. The Wildcats have shown they can move the ball and keep playing when the game gets away from them early. Against LSU, they might have to.
The total opened at 55.5, and I’m on over 50.5. I don’t need a ridiculous shootout here. Something in the neighborhood of 34-20 gets it done.
LSU should supply the bigger portion. Kentucky just needs to bring something to the dinner besides napkins.
Prediction: LSU 34, Kentucky 20
Pick: OVER 50.5
USC at Penn State: OVER 54
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Beaver Stadium
Matt Campbell is five games into his Penn State career, and fans are already demanding his job.
Five games. The man probably still has boxes in his garage.
Unfortunately, giving up 413 rushing yards to Northwestern will accelerate the moving process. The Wildcats finished with 506 total yards in the first game at their new stadium. They built an $875 million building, and Penn State generously supplied the welcome basket.
Now USC comes to town, and I’m expecting points from both sides.
The Trojans average 467.8 yards per game at 6.65 yards per play. Against a defense that just spent an entire evening getting shoved backward by Northwestern, USC should find plenty to work with.
Penn State’s run defense needs to improve dramatically. I’m not convinced that happens because everyone puts on a white shirt.
The other side of this is USC on the road.
Lincoln Riley’s teams travel east like somebody told them they’re being sent to prison. In USC’s first Big Ten season, the Trojans went 0-3 outside the Pacific time zone, including a 29-28 loss at Maryland that gave the Terps their only conference win of 2024.
Losing to Maryland is like getting beat up by a mall cop. You can explain the circumstances all you want. People are still going to remember it.
Riley has even changed the type of airplane USC uses for these trips. Lincoln, I don’t think reclining another three inches is going to fix the fourth-quarter defense.
I think USC scores plenty here. I also think Penn State gets its offense going at home against a team that has repeatedly found ways to fall apart away from California.
And yes, asking Penn State for 38 after it managed 233 yards against Wisconsin and 291 against Northwestern is asking for something we haven’t seen lately. I watched the same bullshit you did.
But Rocco Becht has had a rough two weeks, not a rough career. I’m backing him to respond in a home night game, and I don’t trust USC to keep the door closed if Penn State finally starts moving the ball.
My Penn State lean requires a rebound. The over has another path: USC keeps exposing this defense, and Penn State spends the night trying to catch up.
Either way, I see enough scoring to get past 54.
Prediction: Penn State 38, USC 34
Pick: OVER 54
One Normal Saturday. That’s All I’m Asking.
There’s a point every Saturday when I realize I’ve spent six hours emotionally invested in a college kid’s ability to catch a wet football, and somehow my response is to watch the late game too.
This week, that process starts Friday night in Provo.
By Saturday night, I’ll have multiple screens going, a rooting interest in the wind, and absolutely no patience left for a holding penalty that has nothing to do with the play.
Make a few tackles. Hold onto the ball. And if your team is down seven late, please remember that kicking a field goal is going to ruin both of our afternoons.
