2026 Kentucky Derby Preview: Run for the Roses Breakdown
#1 Renegade (4-1*)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Renegade comes in with all the hype and it is warranted. He ran massive in the Arkansas Derby to earn himself 100 points and a spot in the starting gate for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. The problem is that spot in the starting gate happens to be the dreaded rail. Renegade lacks any early foot and jockey Irad Ortiz may have to shove Renegade a little bit away from there to avoid being crossed over on by the 19 runners positioned to his outside. Luckily for Renegade, Albus, drawn directly to his outside, is not the fleetest of foot early either. It is very possible Renegade is the most talented horse in the field, but the post position really is a problem. While it is not a total death sentence like it used to be pre 2020 when they ditched the auxiliary gate, where breaking from the rail meant you were breaking directly on top of the rail and had to make a drastic decision right away, I still think with Renegade’s running style it really hurts his chances. He is a fringe underneath candidate for me and may be tossed strictly from a value standpoint.
#2 Albus (30-1)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Manny Franco
I will keep it short with this one. Total toss. This horse does not have a chance. He got a total pace meltdown in a very weak running of the Wood Memorial. Riley Mott is a good upcoming trainer with the pedigree to be here year after year, but 2026 is just not going to be his year. Toss.
#3 Intrepido (50-1)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios
I will keep it simple with Intrepido as well. He had clockers checking their watches with jaws dropped as he ripped off five furlongs over the Churchill Downs oval. Way too fast of a move six days out from the Derby. I also do not think he wants any part of one and one quarter miles. He would be a serious player in the Pat Day Mile, but not in the Run for the Roses. Toss.
#4 Litmus Test (50-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Another toss for me. Bob Baffert at 50 to one tells you everything you need to know about Litmus Test. At 150 to one he is still a toss, respectfully of course.
#5 Right to Party (30-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Christopher Elliot
Another late runner from a terrible Wood field with a pace meltdown. Great story for owner Chester Broman and jockey Christopher Elliot, son of Kentucky Derby winning jockey Stewart Elliot, but he is simply not good enough. Toss for me.
#6 Commandment (6-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Commandment broke his maiden over the track on Breeders Cup day in the fall and has continued to improve ever since. He is not a particularly good or flashy work horse in the mornings, but they only pay you for your work in the afternoon. With Commandment, I wonder if we have a case of seeing too much improvement and development in a relatively short period of time. He also does not possess much early speed, but is well drawn in here and figures to get a great trip to put himself in contention late. I think he will run a good race, but I do not think he is the winner. Underneath for me.
#7 Danon Bourbon (20-1)
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey: A Nishimura
Danon Bourbon comes in undefeated, all around two turns, and figures to be Japan’s best shot at winning the Derby this year. It is hard to know what he has really faced prepping in Japan, but he has been visually impressive. He is just not a big enough price to take a flyer on such an unknown. A Derby win from Japan may be coming, but I do not think it is with this one. Include him lightly underneath.
#8 So Happy (15-1)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike Smith
I just do not like this son of Runhappy. On paper he has not done anything wrong, but he is just not good enough. Trainer Mark Glatt is not the same when he ships away from his home base in Southern California, and this is another one I have doubts about at the one and one quarter mile distance. I will toss him.
#9 The Puma (10-1)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
The Puma is an interesting horse here. Had he skipped the Florida Derby and just come in off the impressive Tampa Bay Derby win, I think I would like him a whole lot more. I think The Puma is a case of doing a lot, maybe too much, in a very short period of time and running four huge effort races in less than four months. He is a very talented horse, so I would not toss him completely. But connections may be redlining the engine here. I do not think he wins, but he can maybe find enough to get a piece underneath. He may need a bit of a freshening after this one.
#10 Wonder Dean (30-1)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
He is just not good enough. He has had his passport stamped too many times for my liking as well. That is a lot to ask of a young colt. Toss for me.
#11 Incredibolt
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Torres opts for this Riley Mott runner over the number 2 Albus, and to be honest, I do not think it makes a difference. I do not think either has a shot to win this race or even get a piece. I hate the one turn prep for a one and one quarter mile Derby, and I really just think he is not nearly good enough. Toss from me.
#12 Chief Wallabee (8-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Chief Wallabee was a bit disappointing in the Florida Derby. I expected him to roll and he was third best on the day. He did get very washy in the post parade, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott adds blinkers for the Derby, which I absolutely love. Chief Wallabee is green and still figuring things out, and he has a tendency to run in spots. When he puts it all together, I think there is no doubt he will be the best of this three year old crop. It is just a matter of getting that light switch flipped on. I think we may very well see that this Saturday. Chief Wallabee is one of my two serious win candidates in this one.
#13 Silent Tactic (20-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Silent Tactic is intriguing as a longshot to round out your tris and supers. He is one without much speed, but he has shown an ability to close into slow fractions. Unlike Chief Wallabee, he has a lot of racing seasoning, having run six times, with each race being better than the previous. I like the spacing coming into this one, and I think he can navigate a good trip to be a player for the minors. Use underneath.
#14 Potente (20-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
The far superior Bob Baffert runner in this year’s Derby, but I just think he wants no part of one and one quarter miles. He will be there early, he is well drawn, and he is trained by a guy who knows how to win this race. I think it is possible he is sitting on a career best effort, but the distance is the issue for me. He also worked extremely fast six days out, clipping off five furlongs in 57.4. It is scary to throw out Baffert, but I do not think he can win this race. Use defensively underneath.
#15 Emerging Market (15-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Flavien Prat is probably the best jockey by average finishing position in Kentucky Derby history. He has a win, a second, and a bunch of thirds, and I think that is an outcome we can see here with Emerging Market. Very lightly raced, the undefeated son of Candy Ride took down the Louisiana Derby in only his second career start. This is a really impressive colt to be in the gate making just his third career start. I do not think he is quite good enough to win, but he can certainly pick up a piece underneath.
#16 Pavlovian (30-1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
He really ran too good to lose in the Louisiana Derby. He set a quick pace and did all the dirty work while dueling, then got nailed late by Emerging Market. Trainer Doug O’Neill certainly knows how to win the Derby and has a knack for lighting up the board with big upsets in big races. As Doug would say, why not us. There is just something about this horse that makes him hard to completely toss. I think he outruns his odds and I will include him underneath.
#17 Six Speed (50-1)
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Six Speed would need six legs to win this race. He is simply not good enough. I am also not a fan of horses making the trip across the world and coming back on just five weeks rest. Not for me. Toss.
#18 Further Ado (6-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
I love this horse. Since stretching out to two turns in his maiden breaking score at Keeneland last fall by 20 lengths, yes 20, he has been a different horse. He lost a gutsy photo to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby off the layoff and really showed a lot in defeat. He was not fully cranked for that race with the Grade 1 Blue Grass circled, and he followed that up with a dominant win by 11 lengths. People want to push the narrative that he just loves Keeneland, but he did win the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill as a two year old. As amazing as that Blue Grass performance was, watching him train out of the race is even more impressive. He is a total freak and just wants to do more and more. Brad Cox is doing his best to keep a lid on him and will have him ready to fire a big shot. The 18 post is not ideal, but if Brad Cox likes it, that is good enough for me. This is my other win candidate.
#19 Golden Tempo (30-1)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Golden Tempo is a nice horse. Zero early speed, and from post 19, Jose Ortiz may be forced to drop toward the back early. I do not think he is good enough to overcome the post. His best racing will come later, but I will toss him here.
#20 Fulleffort
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Fulleffort comes in from Brad Cox’s very productive Turfway group. He has yet to run on dirt, but his morning preparation and pedigree suggest he should have no issue handling it. His sister Power Squeeze won the Grade 1 Alabama on dirt at Saratoga and improved as the year went on. Fulleffort looked like he was plateauing a bit but took a big step forward in the Jeff Ruby. Is he good enough to win. I am not sure. But I am confident he will handle the distance, his outside draw will keep him clear of kickback, and he will be in a good position when it is time to make his move. Strong underneath use for me.
Suggested Betting Strategy with a $300 Bankroll
$40 to win on the longer price between #12 Chief Wallabee OR #18 Further Ado
$20 exacta box 12, 18
$15 exacta 12, 18 over 6, 12, 15, 16, 18, 20
$5 exacta 1, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 18, 20 over 12, 18
This Derby feels like a two horse war at the top with Further Ado and Chief Wallabee, but the chaos underneath is where tickets get paid. You have pace questions, distance doubts, and half the field trying to prove they belong. That is what makes this race the Derby. If you are right up top and survive the madness underneath, you are not just cashing, you are printing. Buckle up.
