Kentucky Oaks Preview:
We’ll start with the horse breaking from post position 1:
#1 Explora (6-1 ML)
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Flavian Prat
Explora is the co-third choice in the Oaks, and for good reason. She sports a very impressive race record (7: 4-3-0), never finishing worse than second. She’s trained by the great Bob Baffert, who’s won the Oaks 3 times, and piloted by Flavian Prat, who as far as I’m concerned is the best rider in the country.
My only gripe with Explora, and it’s a big one, is that she hasn’t improved from age 2 to 3 like you would like to see from a filly in a race of this magnitude. She draws a nice inside box and has plenty of speed, and figures to be in front heading into the first turn.
She has never gone off at a price longer than 3/2, so 6-1 may seem like a bargain, but this is much deeper water and she just hasn’t taken the step forward you want to see.
Would it surprise me if she won? Absolutely not. But I am going to try and beat her here for the reasons mentioned above.
She’s an underneath candidate for me.
#2 Zany (4-1 ML)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Zany draws the 2 hole. With connections as impressive as the 1 horse, Zany is the morning line favorite.
Zany is a horse Todd Pletcher has thought very highly of. Maybe not day one, because owner Mike Repole had to lobby pretty hard to get Todd to ship the filly up to New York from Florida to run in the Demoiselle Stakes in December, where she romped by 8 1/2 lengths.
She also began her early training at Todd Pletcher’s C-level strings (Monmouth Park and Gulfstream Park, not to be confused with Palm Beach Downs). That performance in December changed everything.
There were rumors the filly would maybe even target the Blue Grass and try the boys for a chance to punch her ticket to the Derby, but connections ultimately made the right decision keeping her against fillies.
I think I’d be lying if I said her Ashland performance wasn’t disappointing. Did she have an excuse trying to close into glacially slow fractions while taking the scenic route? Absolutely. But ultimately, she was second best to a filly we will get to later as we work through this field.
Like Explora, we haven’t seen that improvement or step forward from 2 to 3.
And I am not a fan of this post for her.
Zany is a big filly, she looks like a colt. She’s been void of early speed in her two races since turning 3, and that’s a problem in a big field like we’ll have on Friday.
She’ll already be inside with this draw, and she’s going to have to navigate around a lot of tired, stopping fillies.
Zany is an underneath candidate for me. Again, I wouldn’t be shocked if she won, she is the favorite after all. But from a value standpoint, and from the trip it looks like she’s going to have to navigate to get the lilies draped across her withers, I believe there are better options.
#3 Search Party (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Mark Casse | Jockey: Cristian Torres
Search Party is the first of the Mark Casse runners in this year’s Oaks.
A filly with a beautiful pedigree to get this 9 furlong voyage, the question is how quickly.
She’s a steady filly who we’re seeing make those small, incremental steps forward coming into this race, the toughest test she’ll face yet. It’s the kind of progress you want to see, not a huge jump where you worry about regression, but enough to show she continues to improve.
Search Party has some tactical speed and figures to be part of that second flight of horses heading into the first turn.
Her jockey Cristian Torres is known for being aggressive and trying to put his horses into the race early, but with this inside draw he may need to ask a little harder to avoid getting crossed over and shuffled too far back early on.
At 30-1 on the morning line, I like this horse to get a piece underneath to round out your tris and supers.
Not quite good enough to win.
#4 Counting Stars (8-1 ML)
Trainer: Mark Casse | Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Stablemate of Search Party, Counting Stars comes in as Mark Casse’s stronger chance at winning the Oaks.
Counting Stars is a filly we’ve seen make a big improvement from 2 to 3 and is a four-time winner.
The doubt I have comes from a couple of races she didn’t win, where she threw in complete clunkers. She’s come back to redeem herself nicely with a couple of good performances, but those types of races always leave a little doubt in the back of your mind.
At 8-1, with better options in here, I think I’m going to toss Counting Stars.
There are better choices.
#5 Meaning (5-1 ML)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy | Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Meaning ships in from Southern California and is the second choice at 5-1 on the morning line.
Meaning is a filly who has been much more visually impressive than her speed figures would indicate.
Like we’ve seen with a few others, she fits the theme of a filly we just haven’t seen improve much on paper from age 2 to 3.
She’s bred on that Gun Runner/Into Mischief cross that screams for two turns on the dirt.
Meaning figures to be close to the early pace in this one, and being drawn to the outside of Explora, the main speed, she should be able to sit a great trip just off the leaders.
She’s good enough to win this race, and I do prefer her to the similarly priced Explora and Zany.
She’s a win contender.
#6 My Miss Mo (20-1 ML)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph | Jockey: Micah Husbands
My Miss Mo really took a step forward in the Gulfstream Park Oaks when stretching out to two turns for the first time.
This daughter of Uncle Mo carved out the early fractions, but really had things her own way, cruising comfortably on the front end in her two-turn debut.
Despite setting modest fractions, especially for Gulfstream Park, Prom Queen ran by her like she was tied to the quarter pole, winning under wraps.
She loses Tyler Gaffalione, who opts for Bella Ballerina, and picks up the services of Micah Husbands, who will be riding in his first Kentucky Oaks.
I think she’ll play a factor in the early pace and do enough to potentially spoil the day for Explora, but I don’t think she’s quite good enough to win.
She’s a toss for me, respectfully.
#7 Dazzling Dame (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Brittany Russell | Jockey: Luis Saez
Dazzling Dame comes in as a longshot here for Mid-Atlantic super trainer Brittany Russell and has last year’s Kentucky Oaks-winning jockey Luis Saez in the irons.
This filly has big speed and a race over the track at Churchill Downs, but I really question the distance for her.
She ran well in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs, her prep that got her the points to be here, but that race is run around one turn and is generally over a speed-favoring track.
Another one who won’t make Explora’s job easy on the front end and may even find herself in front of her going into the first turn.
I just don’t think she’ll have much to say late.
Pass, respectfully.
#8 Battle of Rouge (15-1 ML)
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Mike Smith
SCRATCH
#9 Always a Runner (10-1 ML)
Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Chad Brown sends out the Gazelle winner in Always a Runner.
The Gazelle is historically a weak Oaks prep. You often catch wintertime Aqueduct horses who just don’t go on to be much, but this filly feels different.
She’s 2 for 2, both starts around two turns, and she still hasn’t really figured out the racing game yet.
She had a really nice morning work over the Churchill Downs surface last weekend, and even if this Friday isn’t her day, she may go on to be one of the better fillies in this field later this summer in races like the Alabama and Cotillion.
She made a big step forward from start one to start two, and did so coming off Lasix.
I just don’t know that she’s quite ready to win a race like the Kentucky Oaks just yet.
I think she’s a must-use underneath because she’ll be running late and the distance is not an issue.
Use underneath.
#10 Prom Queen (8-1 ML)
Trainer: Brad Cox | Jockey: Javier Castellano
Prom Queen is the filly I like the best in the Kentucky Oaks.
The Gary and Mary West homebred comes in off a really nice win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She sat a great trip and won easily without having to be fully asked.
She’s 2 for 2 around two turns and has turned in a few really strong morning works over the Churchill Downs surface.
She’s taken a step forward in each of her starts and comes into the Oaks with an optimal five weeks to prepare.
She’s lightly raced, and I don’t think we’ve seen close to the best from her yet.
I think she’ll get a great trip following Dazzling Dame, who figures to blast off and clear, allowing Prom Queen to tuck in right behind her and sit behind what looks like a wall of speed.
I think Prom Queen wins the 2026 Kentucky Oaks, and trainer Brad Cox goes back to back.
#11 Percy’s Bar (6-1 ML)
Trainer: Ben Colebrook | Jockey: Luan Machado
The Ashland winner comes in with an impressive race record.
She’s crossed the wire first in 4 of her 6 lifetime starts (she was DQ’d for interference in the stretch in last year’s Alcibiades).
She’s passed the two-turn test with flying colors and won the Ashland off nearly a six-month layoff.
The only knock I have against her is that everything went her way in the Ashland.
While Zany was taking the scenic route into a glacially slow pace, Percy’s Bar sat just off the lead, saved ground the entire way, and when Machado asked, she took off.
I wish she had one more race prior to the Ashland to really gauge whether she has improved from 2 to 3, but that’s not the case here.
I think Percy’s Bar’s best trait is her handiness.
She’s run well from off the pace, stalking, and even on the lead.
I just have a feeling we may not see her best on Friday, but her résumé makes her hard to toss.
I’ll use her underneath.
#12 Bella Ballerina (12-1 ML)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh | Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Brendan Walsh will take the blinkers off Bella Ballerina for the Oaks, and I love that move.
She was too keen going into the first turn in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and Tyler Gaffalione had his feet in the dashboard trying to get her to settle.
This feels like a move Walsh has wanted to make for a couple of races now and finally has the excuse to do it off the second-place finish.
Walsh won the 2023 Kentucky Oaks with Bella Ballerina’s sister, Pretty Mischievous.
Had she drawn a bit better, she may have been my pick in this race, but I’m having a hard time figuring out the trip she’s going to get.
I think the blinkers coming off will help her settle and make her less speed crazy.
She’s my second choice in here and wouldn’t surprise me at all if she got the job done.
Leave her out at your own peril.
She can win this race.
#13 Pashmina (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Rob Atras | Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
This isn’t your typical 30-1 shot.
She looks as good as a lot of horses at a fraction of the price.
However, she’s one very compromised by the outside post.
She doesn’t have enough speed to cross over and clear, but she has enough speed to get hung wide going into the first turn.
It’s hard to visualize a trip where she wins, but at the price, she’s not one I want to leave off completely.
Use lightly underneath.
#14 Brooklyn Blonde (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy | Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
The other Michael McCarthy runner in this race.
She’s improved significantly since her underwhelming debut at Del Mar, which resulted in a six-month layoff.
She’s really flourished as the distances have increased.
All that said, I just don’t think she’s good enough, and the post does her no favors.
Toss, respectfully.
#15 Lovely Grey (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Kelsey Danner | Jockey: Dylan Davis
Dave Portnoy’s filly draws in off the AE list with the scratch of Battle of Rouge.
Her lone dirt start was poor. It came at 5 furlongs at Indiana over a sloppy track, but she didn’t do much running against a weak group.
Her pedigree suggests she can handle dirt, and she may have needed that first start, but it’s hard to make a case based on it.
She’s run extremely well in her two preps over Tapeta at Turfway Park, closing into slow fractions, but she moves like a horse who prefers synthetic or turf.
She also has no early speed and will have to come from last, taking kickback for the first time at this level.
I hope she runs well and would love to see Portnoy find success in the game, but I don’t think she has much of a chance. Toss, respectfully.
_____________________________________________________________________
This is one of those races where you can talk yourself into six or seven different horses if you want to.
I don’t.
There’s going to be pace. Real pace. The kind that melts races down and turns “good trips” into bad ones real quick.
When that happens, I want the horse sitting just off it, ready to pounce.
That’s #10 Prom Queen.
She checks every box, and more importantly, she hasn’t shown us her best yet. If she runs her race, the number is wrong and we’re getting paid.
I’ll take my chances living and dying with her.
💰 Suggested Betting Strategy ($200 Bankroll)
*UPDATE WITH SCRATCHES*
$20 Win – #10 Prom Queen
$10 Exacta: 10 / 1, 2, 5, 9
$5 Exacta: 1, 2, 5, 9 / 10
$20 Exacta Box: 1,9, 10
