NFL Week 1 Preview: Five Games That Have My Attention
We are officially back!
After months of pretending preseason depth-chart battles matter, convincing ourselves that every rookie is a future All-Pro, and talking ourselves into teams that will inevitably have us questioning our sanity by October, real NFL football is finally here.
Week 1 is always one of my favorite weeks of the season because nobody actually knows anything yet. We think we do. Coaches think they do. Vegas probably knows more than all of us, which is annoying. But until these teams actually get on the field, we’re working off offseason moves, projected improvements, training camp reports, and whatever lies coaches have been feeding reporters for the last six weeks.
I’m not going to pretend every game on the board deserves a dissertation. These are the five that intrigue me the most heading into Week 1.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
The Play: Texans +1.5
As stinky as it sounds, give me Houston.
I know. We’re starting the NFL season by voluntarily putting our money behind the Texans against Josh Allen. Nobody said this was going to be comfortable.
But this Houston defense is legit, and I really like what they did this offseason. Bringing in David Montgomery gives them a legitimate bell-cow back who provides a completely different style from Woody Marks. Montgomery can hammer away between the tackles, Marks gives them another dimension, and suddenly Houston has a backfield that can dictate how it wants to play rather than simply taking whatever it can get.
More importantly, they finally invested heavily in fixing the offensive line. That has been the giant blinking red light hanging over this offense, and if the Texans can even turn that unit from a liability into something respectable, the entire operation becomes much more interesting.
Now, I love Buffalo long term.
For my money, Josh Allen is the best quarterback in football. And because apparently having Josh Allen wasn’t enough, Buffalo went out and handed him a shiny new toy in DJ Moore. That’s borderline offensive.
My concern isn’t Buffalo’s offense. They’ll score.
It’s the defense.
I have some major questions about what that unit is going to look like early in the season, and Houston is exactly the type of team that can make an unsettled defense uncomfortable. Run the ball, shorten the game, play good defense, and don’t let Allen turn the afternoon into one of his personal superhero movies.
I’m not calling Buffalo fraudulent. Quite the opposite. I think they’re going to be one of the best teams in football.
I just think Houston is catching them at the right time.
Give me Texans +1.5.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Play: Browns +8.5
Eight and a half points is a lot in the NFL.
Especially against a team whose entire organizational identity for roughly the last 20 years has been playing disgusting football games that somehow remain within one possession.
The Browns lost the anchor of their defense and one of the best players in football when Myles Garrett left. There’s no sugarcoating that. You don’t “replace” Myles Garrett.
But adding Jared Verse is about as good of a response as you can realistically have. Is he Garrett? Absolutely not. But he’s young, explosive, incredibly talented, and gives Cleveland another legitimate building block on a defense that should still be capable of keeping them in games.
Obviously, there are major concerns at quarterback.
My response to that would be: When aren’t there major concerns at quarterback in Cleveland?
Bad quarterback play hasn’t exactly been a new development for the Browns. Their formula has basically been the same since the invention of the forward pass: play defense, run the football, make the game hideous, and hope the quarterback doesn’t burn the stadium down.
And they have a nice young group of running backs capable of doing exactly that. Run the ball, control the clock, keep Trevor Lawrence standing on the sideline and make Jacksonville work for everything.
On the other side, the Jaguars are entering life after Travis Etienne, who was a huge part of both their rushing and passing attacks.
I actually like Trevor Lawrence more than most people do, and I think Liam Coen is a really good football coach. Jacksonville should be good offensively.
But much like Buffalo, I want to actually see this Jaguars defense before I’m laying more than a touchdown with them.
Getting Travis Hunter back is obviously enormous, but I’d imagine he’s on some type of pitch count early, especially if Jacksonville plans on using him on both sides of the ball. Apparently playing one NFL position wasn’t difficult enough.
I think Jacksonville wins.
I just don’t think Cleveland lets them have a relaxing afternoon.
Jaguars win, Browns +8.5 covers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Play: Bengals -3.5
This might be the most fun game on the entire Week 1 slate.
Joe Burrow against Baker Mayfield. Two explosive offenses. Two quarterbacks who aren’t exactly afraid to sling it around. There should be points.
When Burrow is healthy, he’s easily a top-three quarterback in football. And when is Joe Burrow ever going to be healthier than Week 1?
He’s still got his two-headed monster at wide receiver. Chase Brown gives Cincinnati another weapon out of the backfield. And maybe most importantly, for what feels like the first time in Burrow’s career, Cincinnati enters the season with some actual continuity up front.
The Bengals bring back the same offensive line in its entirety, and that group got noticeably better as last season progressed.
Imagine that. Joe Burrow might actually be allowed to play quarterback instead of participating in a weekly live-fire military exercise.
Cincinnati also finally made a serious effort to fix the defense, which has been a laughable liability for the last couple of seasons. The headline addition is Sexy Dexy Lawrence, who immediately changes what this defense can do up front.
Tampa Bay is interesting because I ultimately think they’re going to be fine.
I still like them to win the NFC South.
I just don’t know if “fine” begins in Week 1.
Mike Evans, the face of that franchise for a decade, is now in San Francisco. The backfield has somehow gone from Bucky Irving looking like one of the best young running backs in football to a 50/50 split with a career backup, because apparently leaving good things alone isn’t allowed in the NFL.
There are still plenty of really good pieces on both sides of the ball. Baker is good. The Bucs aren’t suddenly falling off a cliff.
But Week 1 feels like Cincinnati is ready to go while Tampa is still figuring out exactly what the post-Evans version of this team looks like.
And maybe, just maybe, the Bengals can avoid their annual tradition of spending September looking like they met each other in the parking lot before kickoff.
Bengals -3.5. Cincinnati shakes the Week 1 blues.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The Play: Eagles -6
Last season in Philadelphia ended in complete disaster.
The Eagles went from looking like a team capable of making another serious championship run to a full-blown civil war. Saquon Barkley finally looked worn down after that magical 2024-25 season, the quarterback and wide receiver room turned into daytime television, and the entire offense felt like it was being held together with duct tape.
So Philadelphia spent the offseason cutting out the problems.
AJ Brown is in New England. Kevin Patullo, the main scapegoat and rightfully so, is gone. And the Eagles enter 2026 looking like they’ve remembered what made them terrifying in the first place.
Run the damn football.
The offensive line is as healthy as it’s been in a long time. The pass rush is elite. Sean Mannion comes in seemingly understanding the assignment that this offense should operate through the running game, and Adoree’ Jackson looks capable of helping patch up the secondary disaster we watched last season.
I actually think Washington will be much better this year.
And yes, I’m still calling them the Redskins. I’m not letting a corporate rebrand tell me how to live my life.
I’m a big believer in Jayden Daniels. I think he’s the real deal, and Washington has enough talent to be a pain in the ass all season.
But Week 1 in Philadelphia against this front seven?
That’s a different assignment.
The Eagles can pressure without constantly selling out, they can dominate the line of scrimmage, and if Philadelphia gets the running game moving early, Washington could spend most of the afternoon playing from behind.
Six points feels light to me.
I can see Philadelphia taking care of business without much drama and winning this game by double digits.
Eagles -6.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
The Play: Cowboys -3
We’ll stay in the NFC East to close this out.
And sometimes football doesn’t need to be complicated.
This one comes down to Jimmys and Joes more than X’s and O’s.
Dallas has the better Jimmys.
Dallas has the better Joes.
The Cowboys roster looks legitimately good. They had an excellent draft, significantly improved the defense, and their offensive line looks capable of being a major strength again.
The Giants, meanwhile, continue to look like a dumpster fire that somebody keeps pouring gasoline into because apparently the original fire wasn’t hot enough.
I’ve never been as high on John Harbaugh as most people. I think he’s one of the more overrated coaches in football, and now he’s walking into a situation where his two biggest offensive weapons are coming off major injuries and there’s already internal friction involving disgruntled teammates and the franchise quarterback.
That’s not exactly the recipe for a peaceful September.
Politics in an NFL locker room is rarely productive. When the starting quarterback is sitting in the middle of it, you’re flirting with franchise suicide.
Maybe the Giants eventually get everything pointed in the same direction.
I’m not betting on it happening immediately.
Dallas should be able to control the line of scrimmage, lean on the running game, and let its improved defense make life miserable for a Giants offense that already has enough problems of its own.
Three points isn’t enough.
I think Dallas rolls.
Cowboys -3.
Final Score: Cowboys 27, Giants 13.
Final Thoughts
Week 1 is where confidence goes to die.
Half the league spent the offseason fixing everything. Every offensive coordinator has discovered the next unstoppable scheme. Every rookie is a future Hall of Famer. Every veteran is in the best shape of his life.
Then Sunday arrives and somebody loses 31-10.
That’s why these five games stand out to me. I’m not trying to predict what these teams will look like in December. I’m looking at what they are walking into Week 1 with right now.
Houston’s defense can make Buffalo uncomfortable. Cleveland can drag Jacksonville into the mud. Cincinnati looks more ready-made than Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has the pieces to overwhelm Washington up front. And Dallas gets a Giants team that might already need group therapy.
Football is back.
I’m sure absolutely none of this will make me look stupid by Sunday night.
