NFL Week 2 Preview
Week 1 is over, which means we finally have actual football to overreact to instead of spending four months overreacting to training camp clips.
I’m not going to sit here and pretend one game tells us exactly what every team is. It doesn’t. But it does give us something to work with, and there were definitely a few things last week that caught my attention.
I’ve got four games for Week 2. A dog I think wins outright, two unders for completely different reasons, and an over that I probably like more than I should considering Drew Lock is involved.
Let’s get into it.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Houston Texans
Give me Cincinnati +3.
Nico Collins is out, and that is a massive problem for a Texans offense that already has enough problems of its own.
This offense just looks completely different without Nico Collins. He’s the guy who makes everything else work. Take him away and now you’re asking the rest of this offense to create against a Bengals team that I think is perfectly capable of hanging around.
And that’s really all I need here.
Because on the other side, Cincinnati has one of those offenses that can score against any defense in football.
Houston can play defense. I’m not disputing that. But when you have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on the other side, I’m not laying a field goal with an offense I don’t trust to consistently score points.
I think Cincinnati keeps this close throughout, and I actually think they win the game outright.
Bengals +3
Final Score: Bengals 23, Texans 19
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans: Under 40
The Titans suck.
There really isn’t a more sophisticated way for me to put it.
And what the hell are they doing offensively?
How do you come into Week 1 and give your starting running back seven carries? Seven. Tony Pollard had seven carries for 35 yards.
What are we doing?
Robert Saleh may have Lane Kiffin syndrome from over a decade ago. Maybe he just needs to work for somebody else and be a coordinator. Some guys are really fucking good at one job and that doesn’t automatically mean they need to be running the entire operation.
Tennessee scored 10 points last week, and even that makes the offense look a little better than it actually was because seven of those came in the final three minutes.
Now they get the Eagles.
I don’t think Philadelphia needs to do anything crazy here. Run the football. Control the line of scrimmage. Control the clock. Make Tennessee put together long drives and actually prove they can score.
Good luck.
The total is only 40, which is usually low enough to scare me away from an NFL under.
Not here.
I don’t see this game getting particularly close to 40.
Eagles-Titans Under 40
Final Score: Eagles 27, Titans 10
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: Over 40
I love this play.
I know. Divisional game. Backup quarterback. Usually not exactly the formula that makes you sprint to bet an over.
I don’t care.
Drew Lock can sling it a little bit.
I’m not telling you Drew Lock suddenly turned into Josh Allen. Relax. But if I’m betting an over, I’d much rather have a backup quarterback who is willing to let the fucking thing fly than somebody who is going to check it down 14 times and pray his defense wins the game for him.
I also really liked what I saw from Jadarian Price in his NFL debut. He didn’t get a massive workload, but he looked good when Seattle gave him the football. I think he earns more touches this week, especially against an Arizona defense that I think is shitty.
And then we get Jacoby Brissett on the other side.
We know what Brissett is at this point. He’ll stand in there and sling it, and Arizona has surrounded him with some really nice young offensive pieces.
The best part is the number.
40.
That’s it.
I don’t need this to turn into Rams-Chiefs from 2018. Give me 21-20 and we’re already home.
I think both offenses can score here, and I think this game sails over the 40.
Seahawks-Cardinals Over 40
Final Score: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 21
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Under 47
Sunday Night Football.
Colts visit the Chiefs, and I’m going right back to an under.
Kansas City is coming off a short week, and this feels like a game where we’re going to see a whole lot of Kenneth Walker and Jonathan Taylor.
And I am perfectly fine with that.
Hand the ball off. Get four yards. Hand it off again. Move the chains. Keep that fucking clock running.
Mahomes is obviously Mahomes, so I’m not sitting here expecting Kansas City to score 13 points. The Colts can score too. I just don’t think either team needs to play this game at some insane pace.
Kansas City is at home on a short week. Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor. Both teams have every reason to lean on the run and try to control possession.
That’s exactly what I want when I’m holding an under ticket.
I think we get a good Sunday night game. I just don’t think we get 48 points.
Colts-Chiefs Under 47
Final Score: Chiefs 23, Colts 20
Final Thoughts
It’s Week 2. Nobody actually knows what the fuck any of these teams are yet.
That’s part of the fun.
Maybe the Bengals offense goes into Houston and wins outright. Maybe Tennessee discovers that you’re allowed to hand the ball to your running back more than seven times. Maybe Drew Lock makes me regret ever typing the words “I love this play.”
We’ll find out soon enough.
For now, I’ve got four spots I really like: Bengals +3, Eagles-Titans Under 40, Seahawks-Cardinals Over 40 and Colts-Chiefs Under 47.
See you on the other side.
