NFL Week 3 Preview: Six Plays for Sunday
Two weeks into the NFL season, and apparently the biggest challenge isn’t figuring out who’s actually good.
It’s figuring out who’s still alive.
Guys are dropping like flies.
We’re two weeks into the season and injury reports already look like CVS receipts. Quarterbacks are going down, skill-position players are disappearing, offensive lines are getting shuffled around and half the league seems to be one bad drive away from calling somebody off the practice squad.
My fantasy team has been hit so hard that I’m not even sure I can field a starting lineup this week. I open the app and it looks less like a fantasy roster and more like an emergency room waiting list.
And somehow we’re only in Week 3.
The injuries also make figuring out this league even harder. The 2-0 teams are Super Bowl contenders. The 0-2 teams are dead. Every rookie quarterback is either the next face of the league or should start filling out applications for Enterprise Rent-A-Car.
In reality, we still don’t know shit.
But Week 3 is where things start getting interesting. Desperation kicks in, scheduling spots start to matter and we finally have enough football to begin questioning what we’ve seen through the first two weeks.
I’ve got six games on the card this Sunday. Some are teams I actually like. Some are spots I like. And one requires me to hold my nose, ignore nearly every instinct in my body and trust the altitude of Denver, Colorado.
Let’s get into it.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars -3
I think this is a great bounce-back spot for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars went into Denver last week and things completely fell apart in the second half. Denver scored 17 unanswered points after Jacksonville had taken a 13-3 lead, and the Jaguars left with a 20-13 loss.
I’m willing to forgive some of that.
Denver has made life miserable for quarterbacks and offenses for years. That’s a brutal place to play, and Jacksonville’s offensive line got pushed around.
Now they get to come home.
Meanwhile, I don’t love the spot for New England. The Patriots are coming off a win and have Buffalo waiting for them next week. I’m not saying they’re going to completely overlook Jacksonville, because it’s the NFL and that’s usually lazy analysis, but this certainly isn’t the game circled on the calendar.
I expect Trevor Lawrence and this offense to look much more comfortable at home than they did in Denver.
Give me Jacksonville to bounce back.
The play: Jaguars -3
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Texans ML -125
A divisional battle between two 0-2 teams.
Somebody has to win.
I think Houston is simply the better football team.
The Texans have the defense I trust significantly more, and the Colts defense has been absolutely horrific through two weeks.
That’s not a defense. That’s a guided tour to the end zone.
Houston has had its own problems offensively, but this is the matchup where I think they can finally get things going.
I also want to see a much heavier dose of David Montgomery. They didn’t lean on him nearly enough last week, and against a defense that’s been getting gashed on the ground, there is absolutely no reason to make this more complicated than it needs to be.
Run the football. Control the game. Let your defense do its job.
The desperation factor is real here, too. Both teams are 0-2 and the loser leaves this game 0-3 with a divisional loss attached to it.
I don’t think Houston is as bad as its record.
I think Indianapolis might be.
The Texans leave Indy with their first win of the season.
The play: Texans ML -125
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants: Giants -2.5
Welcome to the shitshow.
Cam Ward. Jameis Winston. A nor’easter. Wind. Rain. Two teams that probably shouldn’t be trusted with your emotional well-being.
What could possibly go wrong?
The weather is expected to be a legitimate factor at MetLife, and that changes how I look at this game completely.
Jameis Winston had the full week working with the ones after the Giants lost Jaxson Dart, and while Jameis throwing a wet football in heavy wind sounds like the beginning of a true-crime documentary, I don’t think the Giants should be asking him to throw it 40 times anyway.
Run the football.
Cam Skattebo. Najee Harris. Tyrone Tracy.
Three different backs who can give Tennessee different looks, and I think that’s ultimately where this game gets decided.
This feels like one of those games where neither quarterback is particularly comfortable, somebody throws a ball directly to a defender they never saw, special teams become an adventure and we spend three hours wondering why we voluntarily chose to watch Titans-Giants.
Beautiful football.
I expect it to be ugly, low scoring and filled with mistakes. If that’s the game we’re getting, I’ll take the home team with the rushing attack I trust more.
The play: Giants -2.5
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers +1.5
I know it’s Week 3.
I don’t care.
This is a must-win game for Tampa Bay.
You start 0-3 and we can pretty much start writing the obituary on the season.
But I don’t think Tampa has played like an 0-2 team.
They can make a legitimate argument that they should’ve beaten Cincinnati in Week 1. Turning the ball over three times will generally ruin your afternoon, especially when one of those turnovers gets taken back for a touchdown.
Then last week, Tampa looked like it was building toward a win before Mother Nature decided she had Browns + whatever the number was.
A weather delay of nearly three hours completely killed the rhythm and momentum of the game.
Now Tampa comes home desperate, and Minnesota walks in at 2-0.
I am not buying the Vikings’ record.
They got pushed around for most of the game against Green Bay in Week 1 before turning things around, and last week they needed DeAndre Swift to fumble at the one-yard line to escape Chicago with a win.
Now Kyler Murray is back.
Great.
I’m not even convinced how much of an upgrade that is.
Minnesota is undefeated. Tampa is winless. The Vikings have their starting quarterback back.
And yet Tampa is sitting there as only a small home dog.
Give me the desperate team at home.
I think Tampa gets its first win of the season.
The play: Buccaneers +1.5
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: Saints -3
Guys…
The Saints might be OK.
I don’t know how comfortable I am saying that sentence yet, but Tyler Shough looks good. The defense has played well. There are actual signs of competent NFL football happening in New Orleans.
What a time to be alive.
Now they finally get to come home.
The Saints played their first two games on the road, so this is their home opener. The Raiders come in 2-0.
And this is where I’m willing to sell Las Vegas.
I’ll give the Raiders credit. They’ve earned the 2-0 start.
But walking into the Superdome for a home opener is a completely different environment.
When that building gets going, it’s still one of the better home-field advantages in football. The Saints are coming off a road win, Shough is playing with confidence and the defense has given them a chance every week.
I think this is the game where we find out whether the Raiders’ 2-0 start is something real or something we’re laughing about in November.
I’m buying New Orleans.
God help me.
The play: Saints -3
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos: Broncos +2.5
This is disgusting.
I hate it.
Let’s bet it.
The Rams have been put through a ridiculous travel schedule to start this season. They opened the year in Australia, then had to play on Monday night, and now they’re dealing with a short week before traveling to altitude for Sunday Night Football in Denver.
Have fun.
And before anybody gets the wrong idea, this is not me suddenly becoming the president of the Bo Nix Fan Club.
I’m not a Bo Nix guy.
I’m also not entirely sure who the fuck he’s supposed to hand the football to with Denver’s entire running back room going up in smoke.
But this is one of those games where the number keeps staring at me.
The Rams have been taking money all week.
And we’re still sitting below a field goal.
I thought we’d see 3 by now.
We haven’t.
Maybe the market is begging me to take Denver and I’m walking directly into the trap. Maybe Matthew Stafford walks into Mile High and throws for 400 yards while I spend Sunday night questioning every decision I’ve made since childhood.
Fine.
There are times when betting football requires you to stop looking for something pretty.
Denver at night. Altitude. A Rams team in a brutal scheduling spot. A home dog getting points in a game where I think the environment matters.
It is hideous.
Hold your nose.
It’s Denver.
The play: Broncos +2.5
Final Thoughts
This isn’t the prettiest card I’ve ever put together.
That’s probably why I like it.
We’re backing an 0-2 Tampa team. We’re trusting Jameis Winston in a nor’easter. We’re buying the Saints. And we’re finishing our Sunday by putting money behind Bo Nix with no fucking running backs.
What could go wrong?
But there is a common theme throughout the card.
I’m looking for teams whose records don’t necessarily tell the whole story. I’m looking at desperation. I’m looking at scheduling spots. I’m looking at weather. I’m looking at home-field advantage. And most importantly, I’m trying not to overreact to two weeks of football.
Jacksonville gets its bounce-back opportunity at home. Houston gets the Colts defense. The Giants get Cam Ward in potentially miserable conditions. Tampa gets its back against the wall. New Orleans finally gets the Superdome.
And then there’s Denver.
We don’t have to like it.
We just have to hold our nose and click submit.
See you Sunday.
