NFL Week 5 Preview: A Card With a Face Only a Mother Can Love
Some cards are pretty. This is not one of them. This card has a lazy eye, three teeth, and smells like a Meadowlands parking lot in January. We’re backing a 1-3 Jets team, two 0-4 teams, a winless Chargers squad with no tackles, and a Commanders team that just started its third-string quarterback in London. If you need your bets to look good in a photo, go bet the Cowboys. We’re here to cash ugly.
JETS ML vs. Browns
On paper, this is a 3-1 team visiting a 1-3 team, and you’re asking why we’d back the 1-3 side. Fair question. Here’s the answer: Cleveland’s record is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
The Browns have led on barely a quarter of their offensive snaps this season. They aren’t controlling games. They’re surviving them, then winning at the buzzer. Last week took a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. Credit to the kicker, but eventually you need a plan that doesn’t involve asking a guy to boot it from the next ZIP code.
Cleveland’s identity is a defense that brings pressure and lives on big plays, with Deshaun Watson trying not to ruin everyone’s afternoon on the other side. That style creates chaos, and chaos cuts both ways on the road.
The Jets’ offense has been awful. No argument there. But their defense has kept them alive, and they haven’t surrendered a single point off a turnover all season. Considering the offense they share a locker room with, that should qualify them for some kind of humanitarian award.
If New York keeps this in the teens and makes Watson produce a drive with the game on the line, I’ll take my chances. Cleveland has escaped enough of these already.
Jets win a game that RedZone will visit only when legally obligated.
TITANS +7.5 vs. Texans
Two 0-4 teams, and one of them is being asked to win by more than a touchdown. That’s a hell of a sales pitch.
With the total sitting in the 30s, points are already expected to be scarce. Getting a touchdown and the hook matters even more when neither offense looks capable of putting together three good possessions without needing a cigarette break.
Houston isn’t a team I trust to create separation on the road. Last week, the Texans led Dallas 23-13 in the third quarter and still lost. Before I ask them to win comfortably, I’d like to see them finish a game without accidentally handing it to the other team.
Tennessee at least showed a pulse against Baltimore. Down 24-7 at halftime, the Titans shut out the Ravens after the break and made it a one-score game. Nobody is hanging a banner for that, but when you’re 0-4, a pulse is progress.
Home team, division rival, low-scoring game, and a hook on top of the touchdown. Even if Houston finally gets a win, I expect Tennessee to stay close enough to make everyone uncomfortable.
That’s pretty much the theme of the afternoon.
DOLPHINS +7.5 vs. Bengals
Miami is ugly. I won’t pretend otherwise. The Dolphins scored 10 points in Minnesota, which is barely enough to justify making the trip.
But they were down only 12-10 entering the fourth quarter against an unbeaten team. Their defense held Minnesota to 15 and gave them a chance despite an offense that spent most of the game buffering.
That’s the template here: keep the score manageable, make Cincinnati earn every possession, and hang around long enough for something stupid to happen.
The Bengals’ receiver situation gives me another reason to take the points. Ja’Marr Chase is in concussion protocol, Tee Higgins is banged up, and there are questions further down the receiver room. Depending on who suits up, Joe Burrow could be checking name tags between plays.
Cincinnati just lost at home to Jacksonville after scoring three points in the first half. Now it’s laying more than a touchdown on the road against a defense that just kept Minnesota in check.
Burrow is good enough to win this anyway. I just don’t trust a potentially depleted offense to create the separation this number requires.
Miami can lose by seven, look disgusting doing it, and still do its job for us.
STEELERS -2.5 vs. Colts
The scheduling is what puts me on Pittsburgh.
Indianapolis spent last week in London, beat a Washington team that was down to its third-string quarterback, flew back across the Atlantic, and now has to play another road game against the Steelers. No bye to recover. No easing back into things. Just a trip to Pittsburgh to get hit by people who consider that hospitality.
The travel doesn’t guarantee the Colts fall apart, but it’s another thing working against them in a game that should demand four physical quarters. If this is close late, I’d rather have the rested home team than the one whose luggage has seen more countries than I have.
Pittsburgh has had extra time to recover and stew over that Cleveland loss. The Steelers were down 21-10 at halftime, fought back to tie it with under two minutes left, then watched a 56-yard field goal beat them with 10 seconds remaining. All that work just to stand there while a kicker ruins your week.
And I’m not giving Indianapolis too much credit for the 30-13 win in London. Beating a team using its third-string quarterback is a different assignment from dealing with Pittsburgh’s defense on the road. You don’t get to put “solved football” on your résumé because Washington ran out of quarterbacks.
Rest advantage, home field, and a Colts team facing a much tougher test than it got overseas. Laying 2.5, I’m on Pittsburgh.
Steelers by a touchdown.
COMMANDERS -3 vs. Giants
This comes down to one name: Jayden Daniels. This pick assumes he returns from the elbow injury. If he doesn’t, I’m off it.
Washington looked dead last week because it was down to its third-string quarterback in London after Marcus Mariota got hurt. At that point, the offensive game plan is mostly an emergency contact sheet.
Getting Daniels back changes the entire offense. Washington’s 1-3 record needs some context when the quarterback who makes everything work hasn’t been available.
The Giants are 3-1 and entertaining, but look at how they got their last win. Jameis Winston threw three touchdowns and two interceptions, then New York won on a 98-yard pick-six on the final play.
Great television. A deeply unstable way to pay the bills.
That’s the Jameis experience. He’ll make a throw that convinces you he’s figured it all out, then give a linebacker the best birthday present he’s ever received. The Giants can move the ball, but Washington should get opportunities, too.
With Daniels back, I trust the Commanders to turn those opportunities into points. At home, laying a field goal, I’m backing Washington to make New York’s weekly escape act a little less successful.
CHARGERS +3.5 vs. Broncos
This is the one even Mom can’t love.
The Chargers are 0-4. Both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, are expected out. Ladd McConkey is dealing with a foot injury. Justin Herbert has struggled badly, and now he gets a pressure-heavy Denver defense with backup tackles protecting him.
Yes, I read all of that before picking them. No, I don’t have a satisfactory explanation for my general condition.
The football explanation is that Denver has problems scoring, too. The Broncos were tied 3-3 with San Francisco at halftime last week and finished with 14 points. They can make Herbert’s afternoon miserable without necessarily putting the game away.
The Chargers’ best path is to run the ball, keep the game manageable, and limit the obvious passing situations where those tackles become a public safety concern. Jim Harbaugh should be perfectly comfortable turning this into three hours of punts and minor workplace injuries.
I’m expecting a tight division game with very little separation. Denver can win by a field goal and we still cash.
The hook is why I’m here. The Chargers certainly aren’t.
RAMS -3 vs. Bills
Monday Night Football
This is the one bet that actually looks like a bet.
The Rams were the preseason Super Bowl favorite, and they’ve been sloppy. But they just climbed out of a 20-10 fourth-quarter hole in Philadelphia with two touchdowns in the final four minutes. The offense can still put points up in a hurry, even after spending most of the afternoon making you question every decision that brought you there.
Buffalo is coming off a brutal finish against New England. The Bills surrendered the go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes left, then Josh Allen threw an interception on the possession that could have tied or won it.
Now they get a Rams offense that can punish another stretch of late defensive mistakes. That’s the part I’m backing. Los Angeles just showed how quickly it can turn a couple of possessions into 14 points, and Buffalo just failed to get the stop it needed with the game on the line.
Allen can absolutely trade scores with them. I’m expecting a competitive game, but I trust the Rams’ offense at home to finish more drives and force Buffalo to chase late.
Rams by a touchdown. Give me one evening where backing a team doesn’t require a character witness.
Seven plays, zero beauty pageants. If you see me celebrating a Titans field goal like they just won the Super Bowl, mind your business.
