NFL Week 6 Sunday Card: Seven ATS Picks and the Costanza Pick of the Week
Seven picks against the spread, one Costanza special, and a full Sunday of questioning why we voluntarily do this to ourselves.
The NFL has reached that beautiful point in the season where half the league is injured, the other half is pretending not to be, and sportsbooks are still asking us to lay points with backup quarterbacks.
I’ve got seven plays on the Sunday slate, plus the debut of a weekly tradition inspired by the greatest unemployed man in television history, George Costanza.
One rule before we get started: shop your number. A half-point might not seem like much until you’re staring at a three-point loss and contemplating whether the television would survive a short flight through the living room.
The books aren’t your friends. They’re your landlords.
Browns +4 vs. Ravens (1:00 ET)
Lamar Jackson’s ankle has apparently decided it’s had enough football for the time being, which means Tyler Huntley gets another start.
I respect Huntley the same way I respect a spare tire. I’m glad he’s there when you need him, but I wouldn’t plan a road trip around him.
And I’m certainly not interested in laying four points with him on the road.
The sharper money has already shown interest in Cleveland at +4.5 and +4. With the total hovering around 40, we’re looking at the kind of divisional rock fight where every first down feels like a personal achievement.
Nobody’s asking Cleveland to put on an offensive clinic. Just run the ball, make Huntley uncomfortable, and try not to do anything that reminds everyone why you’re the Browns.
This has field goal game written all over it. Possibly several field goals, none of them particularly enjoyable to watch.
Prediction: Browns +4
Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Steelers (1:00 ET)
Tampa Bay played Thursday. Pittsburgh played Sunday.
Give me the team that’s spent the extra days resting, watching film, and remembering what it feels like to walk without ice packs strapped to both knees.
The Buccaneers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game in football, which should make life considerably less enjoyable for Pittsburgh’s offense.
Then there’s Aaron Rodgers against Todd Bowles. Rodgers’ teams are 1-2 in those matchups, averaging just 16.7 points.
Rodgers is 42 years old. At this point, every blitz should come with an AARP notification.
Pittsburgh might be the better team on paper, but this is a lousy spot to ask Rodgers to manufacture offense against a rested, physical defense.
I’ll take the points and trust Tampa to keep this ugly.
Prediction: Buccaneers +2.5
And if you find +3, congratulations. You’ve found yourself a better bet.
Falcons +1.5 vs. Bears (1:00 ET)
Caleb Williams is back after missing three consecutive games with what he described as a hamstring tear rather than a strain.
That’s wonderful news for Chicago, assuming the hamstring has also been informed that he’s back.
A quarterback returning from a torn hamstring, playing on the road, in a game that could require him to move around and extend plays? What could possibly go wrong?
Michael Penix Jr. isn’t exactly arriving in bubble wrap-free condition either, but he’s off the injury report and expected to start despite the rib issue.
At least Atlanta knows what it’s getting.
Chicago might have the more explosive quarterback when both guys are healthy. The problem is that I have absolutely no interest in laying points with a quarterback whose hamstring has recently filed for divorce.
Atlanta’s at home, getting points, and facing a quarterback who hasn’t played in three weeks.
That’ll do.
Prediction: Falcons +1.5
Panthers -3 at Eagles (1:00 ET)
The Eagles are returning from London without Jalen Hurts, who’s sidelined with a blood clot. Tanner McKee gets the start.
Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off a bye week.
So one team spent last Sunday resting and preparing. The other spent it playing overseas before climbing into a flying aluminum tube for eight hours.
Sounds fair.
Philadelphia’s injury report is longer than a CVS receipt, and Will Shipley has already been ruled out.
The market hasn’t exactly been subtle about this matchup either. Philadelphia was favored by 2.5 on the lookahead line. Now Carolina is laying as much as 3.5 at some books.
That’s a massive adjustment, and admittedly, we’re arriving at the party after most of the good food has been eaten.
Still, Carolina has the healthier roster, the rest advantage, and the luxury of facing a backup quarterback.
The Panthers don’t need to do anything spectacular. They just need to avoid becoming the Panthers we’ve all grown accustomed to.
A bigger challenge than it sounds.
Prediction: Panthers -3
I’m not chasing this to -3.5. Three is the number.
Chargers +7.5 at Chiefs (4:25 ET)
I know. I know.
The Chargers are 0-5. Justin Herbert has been sacked 17 times and thrown seven interceptions. His offensive line has spent most of the season operating like a nightclub security team that lets absolutely everyone through.
And now they’re going into Arrowhead to face Patrick Mahomes.
Sounds like a terrific idea.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Kansas City hasn’t recorded a sack since Week 1, while the Chargers’ defense has forced eight turnovers, tied for fifth-most in the league.
That’s not exactly the matchup you’d expect from an undefeated team facing a winless one.
We’re also getting more than a touchdown in a divisional game with a relatively low total.
Do I think the Chargers are better than the Chiefs? Absolutely not.
Do I think the Chiefs could spend three quarters screwing around, win by six, and leave everyone wondering why they didn’t put this game away an hour earlier?
That’s practically a Kansas City tradition.
The Chargers don’t need to win. They just need to lose with a little dignity, which admittedly hasn’t been their specialty this season.
Prediction: Chargers +7.5
Raiders +5.5 vs. Bills (4:25 ET)
Buffalo is playing its second consecutive road game on a short week after an emotional overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
Instead of flying home, the Bills stayed out West.
Smart move for the body clocks. Dangerous move when the destination is Las Vegas.
I’m not saying Josh Allen spent the week at the blackjack tables, but if he comes out wearing sunglasses and asking for a Bloody Mary, we’ll have our answer.
The Raiders are coming off a 45-17 beating courtesy of New England, which isn’t exactly the kind of performance that inspires confidence.
But that’s also why we’re getting 5.5 points at home.
Brock Bowers presents a legitimate problem for a Buffalo secondary that’s been vulnerable, and the Bills are walking into a classic letdown spot after a physical Monday night game.
Sometimes the best bets are the ones that make you feel a little sick when you click the button.
This is one of those bets.
I don’t need Las Vegas to win. I need them to hang around, make Buffalo work, and preferably avoid whatever the hell happened last week.
Prediction: Raiders +5.5
Bills win. Raiders cover. Everyone goes home miserable except the people holding Raiders tickets.
Packers -1.5 vs. Cowboys (8:20 ET)
Dallas just gave Tampa Bay its first win of the season, and apparently the Cowboys’ defense has decided that tackling is more of a suggestion than an actual job requirement.
The over is getting plenty of attention, and I understand why. Dallas has been giving opposing offenses the kind of hospitality normally reserved for paying hotel guests.
Please, come right in. Make yourself comfortable. The end zone is down the hall.
But rather than get involved with a total that’s already attracting plenty of attention, I’ll take Green Bay at home.
Lambeau Field. Sunday Night Football. Jordan Love against a defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed with a roll of paper towels.
And all we’re laying is a point and a half.
There’s no need to overcomplicate this one.
The Packers don’t need to win by 20. They don’t need to cover some ridiculous double-digit spread. They just need to win a football game at home against a Dallas team that seems allergic to defensive fundamentals.
If Green Bay can’t manage that, I’ll happily accept that I know absolutely nothing about football.
Wouldn’t be the first Sunday.
Prediction: Packers -1.5
The Costanza Pick of the Week: Saints ML (-115) at Giants (1:00 ET)
There’s a famous episode of Seinfeld where George Costanza realizes that every instinct he’s ever had has been wrong.
So he decides to do the opposite.
And suddenly, his life starts working out.
I’ve spent enough Sundays staring at losing tickets to recognize that George might have been onto something.
Welcome to the Costanza Pick of the Week, where we identify the obvious play, acknowledge that it makes perfect sense, and then do the exact opposite.
This week, every instinct I have says take the Giants.
They’re 3-1-1. They’re leading the division. They’re at home. They’re playing a 1-4 Saints team that has absolutely no business being favored on the road.
New Orleans is a dome team traveling to New Jersey in October. That’s the football equivalent of taking a house cat camping.
Even the guy at the deli counter told me to take the Giants.
That’s when I knew.
We’re taking New Orleans.
My name is OFS Joe. I’m unemployed and I bet the Saints.
Now, before you call the authorities, there’s actually a case to be made here.
New Orleans has scored 118 points through five games and somehow has just one win to show for it. That’s not an offense that can’t move the football. That’s a team that’s found increasingly creative ways to lose games.
The Saints lost by one point in Detroit and went into Baltimore as 8.5-point underdogs and won outright.
That’s a much better résumé than 1-4 would suggest.
Now let’s look at the Giants.
Their signature achievement is a 12-7 win over Tennessee in which they failed to score a touchdown.
Twelve points. Against the Titans.
Hang the banner.
When they faced the Rams, they got smoked 28-6. And last week, they managed to tie Washington after missing a field goal in overtime and then fumbling the football.
A tie in the NFL is like kissing your sister, and the Giants are still standing there with their lips puckered.
Defensively, New York is allowing 5.19 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in the league. Abdul Carter is questionable, Andrew Thomas is banged up, and the trenches aren’t exactly inspiring confidence.
Then there’s Jameis Winston facing his former team.
Ah, yes. The revenge game.
Jameis revenge games are a beautiful concept because you never know whether you’re getting four touchdowns or three interceptions and a heartfelt postgame speech about overcoming adversity.
Sometimes you get both.
The Saints have enough offensive firepower to exploit this defense, assuming Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are healthy enough to go.
That’s the one condition here. Check the inactives before kickoff. If Kamara and Olave are both active, I’m comfortable backing New Orleans to win outright.
Does it feel good betting on a 1-4 road favorite?
Absolutely not.
Does it make me question every decision I’ve ever made?
Of course.
But that’s the whole point.
The Giants are the sensible pick. The Saints are the Costanza pick.
And for one glorious Sunday, we’re doing the opposite.
Costanza Prediction: Saints ML (-115)
Serenity now. Insanity later.
Final Thoughts: Seven Picks, One Bad Idea, and a Full Sunday Ahead
Seven spreads. One Costanza special. Eight opportunities to convince myself I’ve finally figured out a league specifically designed to make people look stupid.
Some of these picks are based on rest advantages. Others come down to quarterback injuries, defensive matchups, or getting a few extra points in games that should stay close.
And one of them is based on a fictional character who lived with his parents and once pretended to be a marine biologist.
I’d argue that’s a more respectable handicapping system than whatever half the gambling industry is selling.
Remember, shop your numbers. Don’t turn a good bet into a bad one because you’re too lazy to check another sportsbook. And if the entire card goes sideways, there’s always next Sunday.
That’s both the beauty and the psychological damage of football season.
See you Monday.
