UFC 330 Preview: Two Title Fights and a Whole Lot of “How Is This on a Numbered Card?”
We’re back with another UFC numbered event, and I’ll give them this: the two title fights at the top are legitimately intriguing. Islam Makhachev defending his belt against Ian Machado Garry is a fascinating matchup, and Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson has enough intrigue to make the co-main worth watching.
After that? Jesus Christ.
This is a numbered UFC card? There was a time when seeing a number after “UFC” meant something. You knew you were getting a loaded card. Multiple huge fights. Big names up and down the lineup. Back in the day, they would’ve charged you $60 for this thing, and apparently part of that $60 would’ve gone toward the privilege of watching Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando play tummy sticks.
Imagine explaining that purchase to your wife.
“Yeah, I spent $60 tonight.”
“On what?”
“Lucas Fernando.”
Divorce papers would be on the kitchen counter before Bruce Buffer finished the introductions.
The good news is that there are actually some fun fights buried throughout this card. Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes has violence written all over it. Edson Barboza is being wheeled back into the Octagon to see if there’s another beating left in the old man. Neil Magny returns for his 900th UFC fight to once again decide whether somebody is actually good enough to enter the welterweight rankings. And somewhere along the way, we’re getting Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus on the main card of a numbered UFC event, which feels like something Congress should probably investigate.
So no, UFC 330 isn’t exactly UFC 100. But there are two title fights, a few spots I really like, some violence to be found, and several fights where I have absolutely no idea why they’re happening.
And of course, I’m still going to watch every fucking second of it because I love this sport way too damn much. They could put two guys they found fighting over a parking spot outside the arena on the prelims and I’d probably have a breakdown and prediction ready by Saturday morning.
That’s the sickness. That’s why we’re here.
Let’s get into UFC 330.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry:
The main event of the evening. Despite all the puzzling love and fascination all over my feed, Islam Makhachev is still over a 3.5-1 favorite in this title fight. Seeing that number in a title fight is rarely appealing, but I think they have it lined properly. I know Ian Garry has a sparkling 17-1 record in his professional career. I know he has a distinct size advantage (which, watching these two face off at the Rocky statue, may not be so distinct after all). And I know Garry is one of the most technical strikers in the UFC, but he has pillow fists.
So while the reach advantage may be a real thing, his lack of danger in his striking shouldn’t slow Islam down from trying to enter into range to shoot takedowns. Are we supposed to be impressed by Ian Garry’s close, yet decisive decision win against Belal Muhammad? A guy we saw Gabriel Bonfim dominate for 5 full rounds? A Bonfim who has had major cardio questions over the course of his career.
This is going to be a different level of wrestler than anything Ian Garry has ever seen. I know, he fought Shavkat to a “close” decision, but Islam is different. Shavkat also blew his knee out in that fight, and 3 knee surgeries later, we still haven’t seen him back and I’m not sure that we should or will.
The bottom line is Ian Garry doesn’t throw the bombs necessary to put doubt into anything Islam is going to shoot at him. Not to mention, Islam has the best coach in all of MMA with Khabib Nurmagomedov in his corner. The remarkable thing about Khabib is that as great of a fighter as he was, probably top 5 all time, definitely top 10 all time, he’s an even better coach. I know he has Islam ready, and Ian Garry will not be the man to stop him.
Prediction:
Islam Makhachev by Decision.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson:
The co-main event of the evening, with belt implications on the line. I like Gillian Robertson, I really do, but this is a nightmare matchup for her. Gillian’s biggest strengths are her wrestling and her top control. Too often she loses that positioning chasing submissions, and against Mackenzie Dern you don’t want to get into a jiu-jitsu-off. Dern is more than comfortable fighting off her back.
Dern is also miles ahead of Gillian in the striking department. Anything Robertson can do to Dern on the ground is class relief from what she just saw with Virna Jandiroba, who’s a superior wrestler and grappler to Robertson.
I guess my main question is, how is Robertson cutting the line to get this title shot? Looking through the rankings, there’s certainly 4 or 5 ladies with better or more deserving resumes. Gillian is on a great run in the strawweight division, but who has she really beaten? Her last win against Amanda Lemos was by far the biggest of her career, and we’ve seen the fast decline of Lemos over the last 18 months.
Gillian’s last defeat came against Tabatha Ricci, a fight that she was out-grappled in, and that loss certainly hasn’t aged well. Your best shot at beating Dern is by being a technical striker who presents some danger in your hands and kicks, and that’s just not Gillian’s game.
The UFC organization is thrilled to have Mackenzie Dern holding a belt, and it seems as though they’d like her to hold it for just a little while longer by snubbing Zhang Weili for this title shot.
So what do we have here when we run down the list of attributes?
Striking - big advantage Dern.
Wrestling - a little closer, but still advantage Dern.
BJJ - big advantage Dern.
Fight IQ - Dern.
5-round experience - Dern.
I just don’t see the path here for Gillian. I think we see the lack of experience in 5-round fights also rear its ugly head here. Can Dern find the finish? It’s possible, but it’s also WMMA. If you’re looking to wager on this fight, I think the best way to do that is to lay the 5.5 points with Dern, unless you can tolerate taking 1:2.
Prediction:
Mackenzie Dern
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus:
How is this fight on a main card in a numbered event? Both of these guys have gigantic holes in their games, but Mansur is a great athlete and Stoltzfus is not.
This is a big fight in Mansur’s career, coming off his first loss, and when you have a legitimate prospect, it’s usually the fight that tells you everything you’ll need to know about that fighter. Do they learn from it and improve? Or do they continue on that downward trend to PFL excellence?
I think Mansur has too much raw ability to be a fraud. Turns out his last loss against Yousri Belgaroui isn’t a bad loss at all. Mansur possesses the things that Dustin struggles with most: length, punching power, and he’s the better wrestler.
The only problem I really have with Mansur is how slow he comes out of the gate, but at the end of the day, I think he’s just too much athlete for Dustin here.
Prediction:
Mansur Malik by Decision
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics:
This is a nightmare matchup for the corpse of Edson Barboza. Ribovics can bring the pace, a pace that’ll be just too much for Barboza. Ribovics has really struggled to defend takedowns, but he doesn’t have to worry about that with Barboza.
I think Ribovics just walks Barboza down and lights him up. No need to complicate things here. I’m not telling you anything that the line in this one hasn’t.
Prediction:
Esteban Ribovics by KO
Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez:
Joel Alvarez comes in for his third try at 170. His last fight, he was dominated on the ground by Amosov. Turns out Amosov is a legitimate contender and a top 3 or 4 contender in the 170 division.
Chidi’s last loss is another story. He lost to Carlos Leal. Not really a loss to hang your hat on. His wins aren’t very impressive either.
Joel Alvarez was on a tear before that loss to Amosov, and I refuse to fall victim to the recency bias lunacy we see in the media of this sport. Chidi may have some moments early, but he can’t grapple with Alvarez. He doesn’t have the cardio to hang with Alvarez.
Alvarez has a chance to make a statement on Saturday night, and I think he does.
Prediction:
Joel Alvarez by Finish
Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes:
The boxer against the kicker. This is the dog of the night for me in Kauê Fernandes. His kicks are deadly. Jalin Turner has a big size and reach advantage, but the kicking game of Kauê neutralizes that advantage.
Jalin Turner won’t be able to wrestle here. One thing Jalin Turner has is the power to find a one-punch, flash KO, but if he doesn’t find it right out of the gate, he’ll be up shit’s creek.
He has toothpicks for legs, and Kauê will take his baseball bat kicks to those legs. How many will Turner be able to eat before he’s compromised? 3? 4?
It was a good story. Turner got fucked up and quit in the octagon a couple times. Literally quit against Bahamondes and retired from the sport. Found Jesus, and now he’s back. It may have worked against the corpse of Edson Barboza. It’s not working against the kicks of Kauê Fernandes.
Prediction:
Kauê Fernandes; Kauê by finish.
Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico:
Donte Johnson was a little underwhelming in that last fight against Cody Brundage. It’s never a good look when that bum takes you to a decision, but we saw a good display of high fight IQ from Johnson in that one.
There came a point in the second round where he came to the realization that he had to preserve himself and be there for a 3rd round with enough gas in the tank. Sometimes that time in the octagon is more valuable than an early highlight-reel KO. His cardio passed the 3-round test.
Both of these guys have good enough cardio, but one guy is young and improving and the other one is what he is at this point. This is another fight where you have a fighter that, when you go down the checklist, just has an advantage in every tangible and intangible aspect of this fight.
Prediction:
Donte Johnson by Decision
Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore:
Both these guys are coming off surprising submission wins. Luque somehow got Kelvin Gastelum out of there last time from a choke that wouldn’t make my grandmother tap. You know, the ever-durable Kelvin Gastelum against the quick-fading durability of the internal-brain-bleeding Luque? Yeah. So that happened.
And Gore finally got himself on track with a win against Bekoev. Gore has the speed, power, and cardio advantage in this one, making Luque’s only path to victory finding Tresean Gore’s neck and putting the squeeze on him.
A path that definitely can happen, but he’s going to have to take a lot of damage to get to that point. Physically, I don’t think he can take that. But I also really don’t want to trust Tresean Gore here because, at the end of the day, Luque is still the more skilled mixed martial artist. I just can’t tolerate the fading durability.
I lean Tresean Gore here, but I really want nothing to do with this fight. Let’s take a stab at fight ends by submission. I hate it so much that I love it.
Prediction:
Fight ends by Submission
Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando:
Low-level, greasy fight of the night. These guys suck. I think Tobias sucks a little bit more, and for that reason I’m leaning towards Lucas Fernando, but he’s pretty shitty in his own right.
I learn the same lesson every week, and it’s don’t fade shit with shit. Even if one shit is worse than the other shit, shit is shit.
For the sake of this preview, I will make a prediction, but don’t you dare think of betting this fight. If you do, they’ll have the straitjacket and room with padded walls waiting for you.
Prediction:
Lucas Fernando.
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj:
Neil Magny, the gatekeeper of the division, a name that holds true. If you look at the only guys he’s let enter that “gate,” it’s pretty remarkable. Names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Gilbert Burns, Ian Garry, Michael Morales, Carlos Prates, and Yaroslav Amosov.
All he’s missing is a fight with Islam, which he’ll never get, to have faced arguably the 7 best welterweights in the division. You can’t really fault him for any of those defeats.
Neil Magny is long and very lanky for the division, but he doesn’t like to use that length. He loves to fight in the clinch, and that’s an area where Brahimaj really struggles.
Brahimaj’s path to victory is throwing bombs early and checking the durability of Magny. Can he find that one shot? Absolutely. Will he find that shot? I’m not so sure.
This is a major step up in competition for Brahimaj and a major step down in competition for Magny. I think Brahimaj will definitely have big moments in this fight, but I have to go with the experienced vet, who’s fought the best 170 has to offer for years.
I know one thing, Brahimaj is not Shavkat. He’s not Prates. He’s not Michael Morales or Amosov.
Prediction:
Neil Magny
Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai:
Orolbai put on a clinic against Chris Curtis last time. He looked like a Kirkland-brand Islam Makhachev. Takedowns and control at will.
Jeremiah Wells has good footwork and is fighting in his hometown of Philadelphia, but he doesn’t have a prayer in this fight. Orolbai will take him down whenever he pleases and will coast to victory against Wells.
He’s definitely live for a finish in this one, but I think Wells could be tough enough to make it to the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction:
Myktybek Orolbai by Decision
Final Thoughts
So there you have it. UFC 330. A numbered event with two legitimate title fights, a few really fun matchups, and several fights that look like they accidentally wandered over from an Apex card.
I’m confident Islam Makhachev is still the best fighter in the world, and I don’t think Ian Garry is the guy to change that. I think Mackenzie Dern has been handed about as favorable of a title defense as the UFC could’ve given her. And if you’re looking for my favorite dog on the card, give me Kauê Fernandes and those baseball bat leg kicks against Jalin Turner.
Is this a great card? Absolutely fucking not.
Will I still be planted in front of the TV from the opening prelim until Islam and Garry are hugging after a 25-minute fight? Of course I will.
That’s the problem with loving this stupid sport. The UFC could put Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias 2 in my backyard, charge me admission to my own house, and I’d probably ask what time the early prelims start.
Enjoy the fights. See you next week!
