UFC 331 Preview: Van-Pantoja 2, Tsarukyan-Ruffy and a Card Full of Violence
UFC 331 is here, and I really like this card.
We’ve got a title rematch that lasted all of 26 seconds the first time around, Arman Tsarukyan getting one of the most dangerous strikers in the division, Gable Steveson continuing his carefully supervised journey through the heavyweight division, and a bunch of really fun fights scattered throughout the card.
Van-Pantoja 2 is especially interesting because we learned absolutely nothing the first time. Van technically has a win over Pantoja and took his belt, but unless his game plan was to telepathically make Pantoja’s elbow dislocate, I’m not sure there’s much we can take away from those 26 seconds.
Tsarukyan-Ruffy might actually be the fight I’m most excited for. Ruffy has looked like an absolute killer, but now he gets the exact type of matchup everyone has been waiting to see him against. If he can deal with Arman’s wrestling, we’re going to be having a very different conversation about Mauricio Ruffy on Sunday morning.
There are prospects being tested, veterans hanging on, some matchmaking that feels borderline criminal, and apparently people have convinced themselves Tai Tuivasa is going to start wrestling.
Let’s get into UFC 331.
Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
As I sit here writing this preview for UFC 331 in LA, I still have no idea which side I want to be on in this fight.
The first time these two faced off, around 10 months ago, I had the same difficult time picking a side, so I opted for the under. That didn’t take long to cash. I was right, but for the completely wrong reason.
Obviously, what happened to Pantoja was a freak accident. Yes, being as decorated as he is in BJJ, he should know how to fall, but it seemed harmless. Posting with that left arm looked like it would safely stop the fall and allow Pantoja to get back to his feet. Instead, his elbow popped out.
Luckily for Pantoja, it was just a dislocation that didn’t require surgery and appears to have healed very well. He was back in the gym pretty quickly and barely missed much training time at all.
What makes this rematch so interesting is the price. Pantoja was north of a -200 favorite the first time around. Now, he finds himself as a growing underdog.
Joshua Van is as clean and crisp a striker as there is in the sport. His combinations are nasty, he packs a punch for a little dude, and his cardio is very, very good. His wrestling and grappling have improved leaps and bounds, but we did see Tatsuro Taira have a ton of success early in their fight.
While Taira is probably the closest thing we have in the UFC to Pantoja, they’re still very different grapplers and fighters overall. For starters, Pantoja is a much better striker than Taira. Taira stops shots exclusively with his face. Pantoja is definitely hittable, but his striking defense is better.
They’re both predominantly grapplers, but Taira specializes in back takes, while Pantoja is more comfortable operating from mount and on top, where he can unleash his nasty ground-and-pound.
My biggest concern is simply Pantoja’s age.
As I always preach, fighters reach their expiration dates a lot sooner the lower you go in weight class. Typically, one of two things goes first: your chin or your speed. Pantoja hasn’t shown obvious signs of losing either yet, but Father Time is undefeated and nobody is safe from him.
I’m through this entire breakdown and I still haven’t convinced myself on a side. What I do think is that we see a finish, so I’m going back to the well for the rematch.
Can Van wear down the older Pantoja to the point of a stoppage? Can Pantoja get this fight to the mat, flatten Van out and end things there?
No fucking clue. But I’ll say one of them does.
Keep the live lines open.
Prediction: Under 4.5 / Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy
I love Mauricio Ruffy. I think he’s one of the most electric sharpshooting snipers we have in this sport.
That being said, this is a NIGHTMARE matchup for Ruffy.
Arman Tsarukyan, for my money, may be the best lightweight in the world right now. He’s so skilled everywhere in the octagon. Everyone wants to talk about how great of a striker Ruffy is, and he absolutely is, but Arman can really strike too.
And when this fight gets to the mat, it’s no contest.
It’s also not a matter of IF this fight gets to the mat. It’s WHEN.
Arman may not have been extremely active in the UFC over the last couple of years, but it seems like he’s wrestling in RAF every week. He’s winning those matches with ease, and those are against real wrestlers. What the hell is he going to do against a non-wrestler?
I know, Ruffy has been training with Volk, and they’ve put out some videos of Ruffy stuffing a couple of takedowns.
Big deal.
This is like Steph Curry working with Shaq on shooting threes. You either got it or you don’t.
There’s only so much you can improve in one specific area at this stage of your career over such a short period of time. I really don’t think it’s going to make enough of a difference here.
To me, this fight is all Arman. I think he gets Ruffy down, takes over and finds a finish in the middle rounds.
Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan by Submission (Arm Triangle)
Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi
This fight and the main event are the two toughest fights of the night for me to call.
Pitbull is ancient, but Choi is pretty old himself. Let’s not forget about the years Choi lost from his career while completing his military service.
Pitbull looked very good in the first round of his last fight against Aaron Pico, but after that, he looked stuck in the mud. The Bellator legend may simply be a shell of his former self at this point.
Choi is an exciting striker who can wrestle more than the average bear, but the grappling is still where Pitbull should have his biggest advantage.
This is one where I’d really like to see how both aging fighters look at weigh-ins before committing too strongly to a side.
But as I sit here writing this, because of the price, it’s dog or pass.
Prediction: Patricio Pitbull
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
Another test for Gable Steveson…
Except the test is first-grade math and Gable is allowed to use a calculator.
What are we doing here?
I understand you’re trying to build this guy up to save the heavyweight division, but Sean Sharaf? Was Justin Tafa busy?
This is Gable by murder.
Sharaf is a tough kid, but he sucks.
Prediction: Gable Steveson by Finish (real original)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
This is a fight I’m really looking forward to.
I think we’re overrating Alonzo Menifield’s recent body of work. Wins over Oumar Sy and Julius Walker have aged like milk, and his last win over Zhang Mingyang may eventually age the same way.
Iwo has been nothing but fireworks since joining the UFC.
Has he fought the best strength of schedule? Definitely not. But he’s making quick work of the guys they put in front of him. First-round finishes. He’s not going to split decisions with Julius Walker, who was KO’d on the first punch thrown in his last fight.
I think Iwo sticks to what we’ve seen from him so far and gets Zo out of there quickly.
Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski by KO (Round 1)
Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain
Chito comes into this one on a long losing streak, and a big reason why is that he approaches every fight the exact same way.
He sleepwalks through the first round-plus, finally wakes up, looks pretty good in Round 3, loses 29-28, then throws his hands up like we just witnessed the heist of the year before storming out of the cage with a shitty attitude.
There is one major difference this time: Chito changed camps.
He’s also fighting an opponent in Charles Jourdain who can be a very slow starter himself.
Jourdain has looked better since making the move to bantamweight, but I think this is a pretty significant step up in competition for him.
This is a very winnable fight for Chito, and I’m going to trust him one last time when he says he’s going to start a lot faster in Round 1.
If he doesn’t, I reserve the right to never trust this man again.
Prediction: Marlon Vera by Decision
Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne
If Tai Tuivasa could wrestle at all, he would have a legitimate chance of pulling off a massive upset.
I keep reading and hearing people talk about how Tai is going to wrestle here, get Robelis to the mat and drown him there.
One major fucking problem.
Tai hasn’t landed a successful takedown in his ENTIRE CAREER.
He hasn’t even shot a takedown since 2021.
How are we supposed to believe that an unmotivated Tai Tuivasa is suddenly going to turn into a wrestler? I’m not buying it.
I really wanted to find a way to fade Robelis here. He is quite literally the worst defensive wrestler at this level that I have ever seen in the Octagon.
But the matchmakers did him right for his return to the UFC.
If you want to give Robelis Despaigne a fight where his complete inability to wrestle might not matter, apparently you give him Tai Tuivasa.
I think this is a quick decapitation.
Tai can no longer be trusted after losing to Louie Sutherland.
Prediction: Robelis Despaigne by KO (Round 1)
Michael Aswell Jr. vs. Joo Sang Yoo
I was actually impressed with Yoo in his last fight before he started showboating and got himself caught.
Yoo is well-rounded and has legitimate UFC-level tools, highlighted by his super-clean striking.
Aswell is all striking and forward pressure. He’s not a bad fighter, but I just don’t think he’s on Yoo’s level.
Despite completely dropping the ball in his last fight, Yoo doesn’t suck. I just don’t trust him anymore.
It also feels like the UFC is using this matchup more for Yoo than it is for Aswell.
Aswell is tough, but you really only find out how tough a guy is when he’s getting his ass beat.
I think Yoo does enough here and wins this fight pretty convincingly.
Prediction: Joo Sang Yoo by Decision
Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz
They’re sending Ozzy Diaz off to slaughter for this one.
Gandra has legitimate power and can end a fight with one single punch. I know there are questions about the cardio, but that’s not really a concern when you’re ending fights in the first half of Round 1.
No need to overcomplicate this one.
Prediction: Ryan Gandra by KO
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira
Edmen is the superior striker here.
He has a good kicking game, but his takedown defense is pretty brutal. His offensive wrestling is okay, but he doesn’t use it very often.
This is also a step down in competition from the flag-switcher, Brendan Allen.
Brunno has serious power in his hands and does a pretty good job mixing up his attacks. He can grapple too. He’s a black belt, but he rarely uses it. He can also be taken down himself, and his cardio is just bad.
Edmen’s gas tank has improved quite a bit over his last few fights, and that may very well be the difference here.
Basically, who gases less badly?
Brunno is more dangerous early. If Edmen can survive that early storm, I think he’ll get the job done.
Either way, I have a hard time seeing these two make it all the way to the scorecards.
Prediction: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance
Lean: Edmen Shahbazyan
Casey O’Neill vs. Eduarda Moura
Casey O’Neill has the advantage in basically every aspect of this fight.
She’s better on the feet, she has miles better cardio, she’s probably the better grappler, and she’s definitely the hotter fighter.
Hit me up, Casey.
I just think we’ve seen Moura begin a pretty quick decline. She looked like she had Cong Wang in some trouble last time out, but she simply didn’t have the gas or the squeeze to finish it.
I think Casey runs through Moura here as she continues to put that knee injury further and further into the rearview mirror.
I would not be surprised at all to see Casey end up on top of a completely gassed Moura and find a finish. In fact, I think that may be the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Casey O’Neill by Finish
Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito
Joanderson Brito has so much talent and ability.
He’s also dumber than a box of rocks.
A literal dumb fuck.
He fights like it’s Opposite Day. He is constantly doing the exact thing he shouldn’t be doing.
If Brito had an IQ that started with a positive number, the price he’s listed at would probably be a major discount. Unfortunately, it starts with a negative, so we’re left with a decision to make.
Fortunately for Brito, Giga is just washed.
Giga still looks okay when he can use his length, stay at range and dictate the terms of the fight. But the second somebody rushes him and crowds him, he turns into a vegetable.
Brito has advantages all over the Octagon. The one clear disadvantage is size, but I don’t think that’s enough to give Giga much of a chance here.
As long as Brito doesn’t decide to fight like an absolute moron, which admittedly is asking a lot, I think he gets Giga out of there.
Prediction: Joanderson Brito by Finish
UFC 331 is exactly the kind of card I love breaking down. There are some spots that look almost too obvious, some where I’m probably walking directly into a trap, and a main event where I’ve changed my mind about 15 times and somehow ended up right back where I started.
On paper, I feel pretty damn good about this card. Of course, MMA has a funny way of making you look like an idiot the second you start feeling that way.
That’s the beauty of this stupid sport. You can spend an entire week watching tape, comparing matchups and convincing yourself you’ve figured everything out, then somebody slips on a banana peel 30 seconds into the first fight and the whole night goes to shit.
Hopefully UFC 331 gives us violence, a few cashes, and significantly fewer freak elbow dislocations than the first Van-Pantoja fight.
Enjoy the fights.
