UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Full Card Preview and Predictions
Two title fights, undefeated prospects, questionable chins, and 14 picks for a loaded Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
Two title fights in Abu Dhabi this Saturday, and I think the public has gotten a little too comfortable with the narratives surrounding both of them.
We’ve got a 38-year-old featherweight legend trying to hold off an undefeated wrestling machine, and a bantamweight trilogy where everybody seems to have forgotten that the guy they’re burying was a 4-to-1 favorite against this exact opponent less than a year ago.
Apparently, one loss is all it takes to go from unstoppable champion to washed-up bum. Sports fans have the memory of a goldfish with a gambling account.
And the rest of this card? Absolutely loaded. Dangerous prospects, aging veterans, guys fighting for their jobs, and a few matchups that should probably come with a warning from the athletic commission.
We’ve got wrestlers who refuse to wrestle, strikers who can’t take punches, and a couple of guys whose cardio would struggle to get them through airport security.
Fourteen fights. Fourteen breakdowns. Fourteen picks.
Let’s get into it.
MAIN EVENT: ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI (C) vs. MOVSAR EVLOEV
Featherweight Championship
Prime for prime, Alexander Volkanovski is the better fighter. It’s not particularly close. Better striker, better fight IQ, more well-rounded, and one of the greatest featherweights to ever walk into the Octagon.
But we’re not getting prime Volk on Saturday.
We’re getting a 38-year-old movie star.
One Foot Out the Door
Between the acting, cooking videos, and food collaborations, Volk has a lot more going on outside the cage than he did during his championship prime. That doesn’t automatically mean he’s neglecting training, but it does raise a fair question about how much longer he wants to do this.
He’s essentially said that if things go terribly wrong Saturday, he’s done. If he walks out without significant damage, he’ll keep going.
That’s a fighter who’s thinking about the finish line.
And the damage he’s already absorbed isn’t imaginary.
Islam Makhachev head-kicked him unconscious in the first round. Four months later, Ilia Topuria flattened him in the second. Two consecutive knockout losses in your mid-30s don’t just disappear because you took some time off and started winning again.
The Lopes Mirage
“But he’s 2-0 since the knockouts!”
Sure. Against Diego Lopes, who shit the bed twice.
In their first fight, Volk outlanded Lopes 158-63 in significant strikes. Lopes had the height, the finishing ability, and the opportunity to turn the fight into chaos. Instead, he spent most of 25 minutes waiting for something to happen.
The rematch was more of the same. Volk outlanded him 98-70 and won on scorecards of 49-46, 49-46, and 50-45.
And Lopes finished that fight with two broken feet.
After a checked kick, he started limping late, needed his coaches to help him leave the Octagon, and eventually had his injuries documented from the hospital.
So Volk’s latest title defense came against a guy who couldn’t properly plant, push off, or pressure during the later stages of the fight.
Then Lopes made his priorities pretty clear. He made weight twice in one day as a backup for the White House card, knocked out Steve Garcia, and announced he was moving to lightweight.
Maybe that explains some of what we saw. Maybe it doesn’t. But the Lopes who fought Volk twice wasn’t exactly the terrifying finisher we were promised.
And here’s the part that concerns me most.
Lopes dropped Volk in Round 2 of their first fight and again in Round 3 of the rematch. Volk also admitted afterward that he wanted to wrestle Lopes but couldn’t consistently get him down because Lopes was too strong.
Think about that.
Volkanovski couldn’t impose his wrestling on Diego Lopes.
Now he’s supposed to keep Movsar Evloev off him for 25 minutes?
Good luck with that.
The Murphy Problem
Now, if Movsar fights Volk the way he fought Lerone Murphy, he’s fucked.
Through the opening two rounds in London, Evloev landed just 28 total strikes and attempted zero takedowns.
Zero.
An undefeated wrestler voluntarily decided to kickbox with Lerone Murphy. Michael Bisping had Murphy winning the first three rounds on commentary, and for a while it looked like Movsar was about to throw away his undefeated record trying to prove he was entertaining.
Then Murphy hurt his hip, the wrestling finally arrived, and everything changed.
Evloev completed nine of ten takedown attempts over the back half of the fight, started ragdolling Murphy, and escaped with a majority decision despite a fourth-round point deduction for low blows.
Why spend the opening ten minutes striking?
My theory is that Movsar felt pressure to make himself more marketable.
The UFC has made it increasingly clear that winning boring fights isn’t always enough. Wrestlers are being encouraged to stand and trade, and fighters who don’t produce entertaining performances aren’t necessarily rewarded for their records.
Whether that actually influenced Evloev is impossible to know, but the tactical change was obvious.
Now there’s a championship on the line.
I don’t see Movsar sacrificing the biggest opportunity of his career because somebody wants more spinning elbows.
He’s already told Volk that he’ll take him down as many times as necessary for all 25 minutes.
I believe him.
The Path to Victory
Evloev averages 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, the highest rate among active featherweights.
Volkanovski’s takedown defense sits at 69%, which is excellent until you consider the volume coming his way.
If Movsar attempts 12 takedowns, that defensive percentage would translate to roughly three or four successful shots. And even the failed attempts force Volk to defend against the fence, fight for underhooks, and burn energy.
That’s a miserable assignment for a 38-year-old.
And Movsar’s striking has become more dangerous.
Against Murphy, he landed a huge overhand right late in the third, followed with a flurry that opened up Murphy’s face, and continued finding success with his right hand in the fourth.
He’s not suddenly Alex Pereira, but he’s dangerous enough to make Volk respect the punches.
That’s what makes the wrestling so effective.
Volk is still the superior striker, landing 5.99 significant strikes per minute compared with Evloev’s 3.91. If this becomes a kickboxing match, I favor the champion.
But Movsar doesn’t need to win a kickboxing match.
He needs to make Volk defend punches long enough to change levels, put him against the fence, and control the fight.
And unlike the Murphy fight, I expect that process to begin immediately.
The Pick
All ten of Evloev’s UFC victories have gone to the scorecards, and I expect another decision here.
Volk is too experienced and too technically sound to be an easy submission victim. But I don’t trust his legs, his age, or his ability to consistently defend wrestling for five rounds.
Every minute spent defending a takedown is a minute he isn’t winning the striking exchanges.
Pick: Movsar Evloev by decision. New champion.
CO-MAIN EVENT: PETR YAN (C) vs. MERAB DVALISHVILI 3
Bantamweight Championship
I cannot believe how quickly people have turned on Merab Dvalishvili.
Less than a year ago, the betting market made him approximately a -425 favorite against this exact opponent.
Now everybody’s acting like he’s a washed-up bum who forgot how to wrestle.
So what’s changed?
Petr Yan had major back surgery.
And Merab finally got some rest.
The Nose
Let’s address the elephant in the room.
Merab needs a nose job in the worst way possible.
That thing looks like it’s been through three divorces and a car accident.
He reportedly broke it again in sparring, this time in two places, and doctors recommended reconstructive surgery. Merab has refused because of the lengthy recovery.
Yan has already promised to break it again.
That’s certainly a concern, but Merab’s nose has looked like a construction site for years.
He fought through it during a 14-fight winning streak and multiple championship defenses. It’s not some brand-new weakness that suddenly appeared after the second Yan fight.
The Redline
Here’s what people are forgetting.
Merab attempted four title defenses in a single calendar year.
Umar Nurmagomedov in January. Sean O’Malley in June. Cory Sandhagen in October, when Merab set a UFC record with 20 takedowns in a five-round fight.
Then Petr Yan just nine weeks later.
Go back to September 2024, and Merab fought five five-round championship fights in approximately 15 months.
And we’re not talking about a guy who stands at range throwing 30 punches a round.
Merab fights like somebody stole his wallet.
Nonstop pressure. Constant takedown attempts. Scrambles, clinches, chain wrestling, and an absurd pace that forces opponents to defend every second.
You cannot run an engine at maximum RPM forever.
Against Yan in December, he looked exhausted compared with the fighter we’d watched dominate the division.
He completed just two of 29 takedown attempts. In their first meeting, he completed 11.
The explosiveness wasn’t there.
Then Yan landed a brutal body kick in Round 3 that appeared to seriously compromise Merab.
Even so, the scorecards were 49-46, 49-46, and 48-47.
An exhausted Merab still made it competitive.
The Entertainment Trap
After the fight, Merab said he had tried to make things more entertaining for the fans.
Sound familiar?
It’s the same concern I have about Evloev’s performance against Murphy.
People will point out that Merab still attempted 29 takedowns, so how could he have abandoned his wrestling?
Because the number of attempts isn’t the issue.
It’s where he attempted them.
Merab spent too much time standing at range with one of the best boxers in the division, then shot from distances that made his entries obvious.
Yan saw them coming.
The Merab who dominated Yan in 2023 didn’t allow him that space. He pressured him relentlessly, forced him backward, and attacked before Yan could establish his boxing.
I expect a return to that approach.
No more trying to win style points.
Just 25 minutes of making Petr Yan miserable.
The Yan Story Nobody Tells
Let’s revisit how Yan got his rematch.
Entering 2024, he’d lost three consecutive fights.
Aljamain Sterling by split decision. Sean O’Malley by split decision. Then Merab by a wide unanimous decision.
He rebuilt with decisions over Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Marcus McGhee.
Good wins, absolutely.
But hardly an unstoppable championship run.
And Yan hasn’t finished an opponent since stopping Jose Aldo in July 2020.
More than six years without a finish.
He got his opportunity because Merab had already cleared out much of the division, and Yan made the most of it.
Credit where it’s due. He fought brilliantly.
But he also caught Merab at the end of an exhausting championship schedule.
The Back
Now the circumstances have flipped.
Yan underwent a lengthy back operation in January to address damaged lumbar discs.
His first fight back is against the man whose entire fighting style involves grabbing opponents, lifting them, forcing them into scrambles, and driving them into the canvas.
For 25 minutes.
That is not the opponent I’d choose for my first fight after major back surgery.
Even Sean O’Malley questioned the decision.
And he’s fought both men.
You can manage certain injuries during training. A surgically repaired back is different when your opponent’s entire game revolves around wrestling exchanges.
Every sprawl, scramble, and takedown defense is going to test it.
The Risk
Yan deserves tremendous credit for the second fight.
He maintained distance, punished Merab’s entries, and fought one of the smartest fights of his career.
Merab’s own coach acknowledged how well Yan performed.
If Yan reproduces that performance, even with the back surgery, this could be extremely competitive.
But I don’t expect the same circumstances.
Last time, a healthy Yan faced an overworked Merab.
This time, a rested Merab faces a Yan returning from major surgery.
That’s a meaningful reversal.
The Pick
Yan hasn’t finished anyone in years, and Merab has never been stopped by strikes.
I expect another decision.
But this time, Merab gets back to his identity. Close the distance, force Yan against the fence, chain together takedowns, and make him carry weight on that repaired back.
Pick: Merab Dvalishvili by decision. Back to the throne.
MAIN CARD
ALEXANDER VOLKOV vs. RIZVAN KUNIEV
Heavyweight
This is an enormous step up for Rizvan Kuniev.
He’s ranked No. 8, Volkov is No. 2, and I don’t think Kuniev has done nearly enough to justify jumping six spots into this matchup.
But that’s the heavyweight division.
Win a couple of fights, remain conscious for three rounds, and suddenly you’re a title contender.
What Kuniev Has Actually Done
Kuniev is 2-1 in the UFC.
His debut came against Curtis Blaydes, and plenty of people thought Kuniev won.
He defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts, landed damaging shots, and 11 of 13 media members scored the fight for him.
But Blaydes was fighting with a serious knee injury.
Then came Jailton Almeida.
LOL.
Kuniev won a painfully uneventful decision by spending much of the fight leaning on Almeida against the fence.
It was the kind of fight that makes you reconsider whether you actually enjoy mixed martial arts.
The UFC released Almeida shortly afterward.
Kuniev finally showed some violence against Tyrell Fortune in July, finishing him with knees in a back-and-forth fight that earned Fight of the Night.
Credit to him.
But that’s his UFC résumé.
A compromised Blaydes, an uninspiring Almeida, and Tyrell Fortune.
Now he’s fighting Alexander Volkov.
Volkov Isn’t Tyrell Fortune
Volkov is 6-foot-7 with an 80-inch reach.
Kuniev is 6-foot-4 with a 76-inch reach.
Three inches of height, four inches of reach, and a massive difference in high-level experience.
Volkov is a technician. He understands distance, controls exchanges, and rarely gives opponents the fight they want.
Against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in May, he landed 88 significant strikes to 54 while connecting at 62% accuracy.
That’s Volkov’s formula.
Jab. Teep. Step back. Repeat.
It’s not always exciting, but it’s extremely effective.
Kuniev has solid wrestling defense, and Volkov isn’t the kind of heavyweight who terrifies opponents with one-punch knockout power.
That gives Kuniev opportunities to pressure.
But pressuring Volkov means repeatedly crossing a dangerous amount of distance.
And if Kuniev can’t consistently get inside, he’s going to spend 15 minutes eating jabs and kicks.
The Robbery Nobody Fixed
Volkov should probably have already received another title opportunity.
Remember his December 2024 fight against Ciryl Gane?
Volkov outlanded Gane 105-48 in total strikes, recorded three takedowns, accumulated more than four minutes of control, and still lost a split decision.
Dana White reportedly told Volkov afterward that he’d been robbed.
Gane moved toward another title opportunity.
Volkov went back to work.
Since then, he’s beaten Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
He’s ranked No. 2, yet somehow he’s fighting the No. 8 contender on his 38th birthday.
Volkov has the misfortune of being an excellent heavyweight who doesn’t generate much excitement.
He doesn’t trash-talk, doesn’t chase viral knockouts, and doesn’t give the UFC much promotional material.
He just wins fights.
Apparently, that’s a problem.
The Pick
Kuniev is promising, but this is the wrong opponent at the wrong time.
Volkov’s length, technique, and experience should allow him to control the striking exchanges without taking unnecessary risks.
It won’t be pretty.
But it should be effective.
Pick: Alexander Volkov by decision.
AARON PICO vs. LOSENE KEITA
Featherweight
This fight is fantastic.
Aaron Pico is the more complete mixed martial artist.
Unfortunately, his striking defense is questionable, his chin has betrayed him repeatedly, and he’s fighting a man who appears capable of knocking somebody unconscious with a stern look.
The Death Touch
Losene Keita is 17-2 with 11 knockouts and previously held championships in two Oktagon divisions.
His latest UFC performance against Muhammad Naimov was terrifying.
He dropped Naimov with a jab.
A jab.
Then he waited for Naimov to recover, measured him, and knocked him unconscious with a looping right hand at 2:54 of the opening round.
Walk-off knockout.
Performance of the Night.
Then he hopped the fence and sat cageside while Naimov was still being attended to.
That’s a different level of confidence.
And Keita has never been stopped by strikes.
His two losses came from a leg injury and a split decision against Nathaniel Wood.
The Pico Problem
Pico has five career losses, three by knockout.
Henry Corrales knocked him out with punches.
Adam Borics finished him with a flying knee.
Lerone Murphy knocked him unconscious with a spinning elbow in Pico’s UFC debut.
At some point, that’s not bad luck.
That’s a pattern.
Pico is aggressive, powerful, and extremely dangerous, but he has a tendency to get reckless when he’s finding success.
He walks forward, plants his feet, and exchanges in the pocket.
Against Keita, that’s a very dangerous habit.
The Murphy Fight
Here’s what makes Pico frustrating.
He was doing well against Murphy.
He pressured effectively, landed body shots, and completed a takedown early in the first round.
Then he chased Murphy toward the fence and walked directly into a spinning back elbow.
Fight over.
That’s Pico in a nutshell.
When he fights intelligently, he’s a nightmare.
When he gets greedy, he’s vulnerable.
The Wrestling Advantage
Pico has elite wrestling credentials.
A U17 world champion and a 2016 U.S. Olympic team alternate, he has the ability to dictate where this fight takes place.
Keita is a dangerous striker, but he doesn’t have Pico’s proven wrestling background.
Pico doesn’t need to stand in front of him and prove he’s tougher.
He needs to establish his striking, change levels, and force Keita to defend takedowns.
Every minute Keita spends defending wrestling is a minute he isn’t trying to remove Pico’s head.
The Resume
Pico also has the stronger overall résumé.
He’s beaten Patricio Pitbull, Henry Corrales, Pedro Carvalho, and Leandro Higo.
Keita has tremendous potential, but his UFC résumé is still developing.
And while Keita has the most dangerous single weapon in this matchup, Pico has more ways to win.
The Pick
This is a fight Pico can absolutely lose by making one mistake.
But if he stays disciplined, his wrestling and overall experience should be enough.
He needs to resist the temptation to turn this into a bar fight.
Pick: Aaron Pico by decision.
LONE’ER KAVANAGH vs. RAMAZAN TEMIROV
Flyweight
Somebody needs to have a conversation with whoever is managing Lone’er Kavanagh’s career.
This kid was supposed to be a future championship contender.
Instead, they’re matching him like a cheap claiming horse whose trainer is trying to squeeze one more paycheck out of him before somebody notices the limp.
He’s in danger of losing three of his last four fights.
And he’s only 27.
The Moreno Win Isn’t What It Looks Like
Kavanagh’s breakthrough came against Brandon Moreno in Mexico City.
Beating a former two-time champion in his hometown sounds incredible.
But which Brandon Moreno did he actually beat?
Moreno was coming off a stoppage loss to Tatsuro Taira and had already been struggling to recapture his championship form.
Kavanagh also didn’t dominate him.
He had an excellent second round, hurting Moreno with combinations, but faded as the fight progressed.
Moreno finished with 7:20 of control time, and two judges scored the fight 48-47.
Credit to Kavanagh for winning on short notice, at altitude, in his first five-round main event.
But let’s not pretend he destroyed a prime Brandon Moreno.
The Schedule Is Insane
Four and a half months later, Kavanagh fought Brandon Royval in a three-round war.
Fight of the Night.
He was eventually submitted in the third.
Now, approximately 15 weeks later, he’s facing one of the division’s most dangerous punchers.
That’s nearly 40 minutes of high-level cage time against Moreno and Royval since February, followed by another ranked opponent on a short turnaround.
Where’s the time to recover?
Where’s the time to improve?
Where’s the time to address the problems that got him finished?
They’re treating a promising young fighter like a 35-year-old gatekeeper.
The Killer
Ramazan Temirov is 20-3 and undefeated through three UFC appearances.
He’s explosive, aggressive, and carries serious knockout power for a flyweight.
His performance against Steve Erceg was frightening.
Despite giving up height and reach, Temirov immediately attacked, dropped Erceg twice, and finished him with a right hand late in the first round.
He landed 27 significant strikes in 4:21.
And that came after a lengthy layoff following a doping suspension.
No ring rust.
Just violence.
The MMA Math
Here’s an interesting connection.
Charles Johnson knocked out Kavanagh in August 2025.
Temirov defeated Johnson by unanimous decision.
Now, MMA math is about as reliable as a three-leg parlay involving heavyweight favorites, but it’s worth considering.
Kavanagh has been finished twice in five UFC fights.
Temirov has the power to punish defensive mistakes.
That’s a dangerous combination.
Where Kavanagh Can Win
Kavanagh is the cleaner technical striker.
He’s 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach, compared with Temirov’s 5-foot-4 frame and 63-inch reach.
If he controls distance, works behind the jab, and makes Temirov miss, he can force the power puncher into uncomfortable exchanges.
Temirov’s cardio is still a legitimate question.
But Kavanagh’s late-round performances haven’t exactly inspired confidence either.
Both fighters have weaknesses that the other can exploit.
The Pick
This might be the most volatile fight on the card.
Two dangerous strikers, questionable durability, and uncertain cardio.
I don’t love either man to survive a prolonged firefight.
The under is my preferred angle.
If I have to pick a winner, I’ll take the fresher fighter with the heavier hands.
Pick: Ramazan Temirov by KO. Betting lean: Fight under.
PRELIMS
DOMINICK REYES vs. AZAMAT MURZAKANOV
Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov is coming off the first loss of his professional career.
And I think people are overreacting.
The Costa Loss
Paulo Costa had success early against Murzakanov, landing damaging leg kicks, dropping him, and opening a cut.
But Murzakanov recovered and started finding success of his own.
He attacked the body, pressured Costa, and appeared to be building momentum.
Then Costa threw a head kick that Murzakanov blocked with his arm.
The arm appeared to suffer a serious injury.
From there, Murzakanov struggled to defend himself, and Costa capitalized with repeated head kicks before earning the third-round stoppage.
That’s not necessarily evidence that Murzakanov was exposed.
It’s evidence that a fight can change dramatically when somebody loses the use of an arm.
Before that defeat, Murzakanov was undefeated and had established himself as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers.
Reyes’ Durability Problem
Dominick Reyes has been stopped four times in his last eight fights.
Jan Blachowicz.
Jiri Prochazka.
Ryan Spann.
Carlos Ulberg.
That’s an ugly list.
The Reyes who arguably beat Jon Jones in 2020 is a distant memory.
He’s still talented, still powerful, and still dangerous.
But his ability to absorb clean shots is a major concern.
And Murzakanov is not the opponent you want to face when your chin has become unreliable.
The Matchup
Reyes has advantages in height and reach.
At 6-foot-4 with a 77-inch reach, he can make Murzakanov work to close distance.
He’s also a dangerous southpaw who can counter aggressive entries.
But Murzakanov pressures relentlessly and throws with serious intent.
He doesn’t need many clean opportunities to finish a fight.
Reyes is most vulnerable when opponents get inside his reach and force exchanges.
That’s exactly where Murzakanov wants to operate.
The biggest concern is Murzakanov’s recovery from the arm injury.
If he’s healthy, I favor him strongly.
The Pick
Murzakanov should be able to close distance, force Reyes into exchanges, and eventually land something significant.
And I don’t trust Reyes to survive those exchanges.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO.
NIKITA KRYLOV vs. ABDUL RAKHMAN YAKHYAEV
Light Heavyweight
This one doesn’t require a doctoral dissertation.
Nikita Krylov has serious durability problems.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes people for a living.
You can probably see where I’m going.
Krylov’s Chin
Krylov’s most recent fight came against Robert Whittaker, a former middleweight champion moving up to light heavyweight.
Krylov found some early wrestling success, but Whittaker eventually began landing clean punches.
In the third round, Krylov appeared to suffer a jaw injury, turned away under pressure, and the referee stopped the fight.
That was his third knockout loss in four fights.
One of those losses came against Dominick Reyes in just over two minutes.
Krylov is still only 34, but he’s absorbed an enormous amount of damage throughout his career.
And now he’s returning relatively quickly after another stoppage.
The Hunter
Yakhyaev is 25 years old, undefeated at 10-0, and one of the most exciting prospects in the light heavyweight division.
His UFC performances have been ridiculous.
A rear-naked choke in 33 seconds.
Another rear-naked choke at 2:52 of Round 1.
Then an eight-second knockout of Julius Walker.
Eight seconds.
That’s barely enough time for Bruce Buffer to finish saying the guy’s name.
Across three UFC fights, Yakhyaev has spent approximately three and a half minutes in the Octagon.
Two submissions and a knockout.
He can finish opponents anywhere.
The One Question
Cardio.
We have absolutely no idea how Yakhyaev looks after ten minutes because nobody has survived long enough to find out.
That’s a legitimate concern against a more durable, experienced opponent.
But I don’t think Krylov is the man to test it.
He’s coming off another stoppage, potentially another serious injury, and his defensive vulnerabilities match up terribly against an aggressive finisher.
The Pick
Yakhyaev is younger, faster, more explosive, and carries a much more reliable finishing threat.
I expect another early highlight.
Pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by first-round KO.
GRANT DAWSON vs. NURULLO ALIEV
Lightweight
Ladies and gentlemen, your official bathroom break fight of the evening.
Two wrestlers.
Fifteen minutes.
Approximately seven meaningful strikes.
Somewhere, a casual fan is already reaching for the remote.
The Styles
Grant Dawson is the more dangerous submission grappler.
He’s 24-3-1 with 14 submission victories and a particularly effective rear-naked choke.
Against Mateusz Rebecki, he accumulated more than seven minutes of control time before finishing him with a submission late in the third round.
Nurullo Aliev is the stronger pure wrestler.
He’s undefeated at 12-0, with four UFC victories, all by decision.
He averages roughly three and a half takedowns per 15 minutes and specializes in controlling opponents from top position.
So we have a submission hunter against a control wrestler.
This should be thrilling for approximately six people.
The Flaws
Dawson’s biggest weakness is his durability.
Bobby Green knocked him out in 33 seconds.
Manuel Torres stopped him in the opening round.
Even Rebecki dropped him before Dawson eventually won.
If you can hit Dawson clean, you can hurt him.
Unfortunately, Aliev isn’t exactly known for separating people from consciousness.
He averages just over two significant strikes per minute and has only two career knockouts.
His game is wrestling, control, and making sure absolutely nothing entertaining happens.
Aliev’s weakness is his limited finishing ability.
But that’s also why he’s difficult to beat on the scorecards.
The Common Opponent
Both fighters have defeated Joe Solecki by decision.
Dawson did it in 2024.
Aliev followed in January 2025.
Not much separation there.
The Abu Dhabi Factor
Aliev has already fought inside Etihad Arena, defeating Mike Davis by unanimous decision.
He understands the environment, the travel, and the atmosphere.
There’s also a ridiculous statistic floating around that fighters with surnames ending in OV or EV are 33-1 against opponents without those endings in the UAE since 2021.
I haven’t independently verified that number, and it’s not a serious handicapping system.
But it’s a pretty funny coincidence.
And Nurullo Aliev certainly qualifies.
The Pick
Dawson has the superior submission game, but I expect Aliev to win enough wrestling exchanges to spend more time in advantageous positions.
This should be an ugly, grinding fight that goes to the scorecards.
Pick: Nurullo Aliev by decision. Begrudgingly.
ABUS MAGOMEDOV vs. CAM ROWSTON
Middleweight
This is one of my favorite fights on the card from a live-betting perspective.
The entire matchup comes down to one question.
Can Cam Rowston survive the first round?
Because if he does, things could change dramatically.
The First-Round Monster
Abus Magomedov is 29-7-1 with 16 first-round finishes.
He’s explosive, aggressive, and extremely dangerous early.
He stopped Dustin Stoltzfus in just 19 seconds in his UFC debut.
More recently, he submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk with a first-round guillotine.
When Abus is fresh, he can overwhelm opponents with striking, wrestling, and submission threats.
But the key phrase is when he’s fresh.
The Cardio Problem
Abus has a history of slowing down as fights progress.
Sean Strickland stopped him in Round 2.
Joe Pyfer submitted him in Round 2.
Caio Borralho outworked him over three rounds.
The pattern is hard to ignore.
He starts like a man trying to catch the last flight out of the country.
Then the second round arrives, and suddenly he’s moving like the airport escalator is broken.
His skills are legitimate.
His conditioning over extended fights is the concern.
The Battle Giraffe
Cam Rowston is 31, stands 6-foot-3, and has a 78-inch reach.
He’s a rangy City Kickboxing fighter riding a seven-fight winning streak.
And he’s already demonstrated an ability to recover from early adversity.
Against Cody Brundage, Rowston was hurt in the opening round and forced to survive significant pressure.
He recovered, established his range, and finished Brundage with a knee and punches late in Round 2.
That’s exactly the type of fight he needs against Abus.
Survive early.
Make him work.
Take over when the pace drops.
Rowston also demonstrated his ability to go the distance with a unanimous decision over Robert Bryczek.
The Betting Angle
Here’s how I’d approach this fight.
Abus in Round 1 is interesting because that’s where his finishing ability is most dangerous.
But if Rowston survives the opening round, I’d immediately reassess the live market.
If Abus has already expended a significant amount of energy and Rowston is still competitive, Rowston’s live price could become attractive.
The key is not blindly betting the second round just because Abus has a reputation for fading.
Watch the actual pace, damage, and wrestling exchanges.
If Rowston is surviving comfortably while Abus is slowing, that’s the opportunity.
The Pick
I favor Abus to be the more dangerous fighter early.
But if Rowston survives the opening five minutes, I favor him as the fight progresses.
Pick: Abus Magomedov in Round 1. Live-betting lean: Cam Rowston after Round 1 if Abus fades.
JACOB MALKOUN vs. ABUBAKAR VAGAEV
Middleweight
Jacob Malkoun owes UFC matchmaker Mick Maynard the naming rights to his firstborn son for some of the cupcake crumb bums he’s been fed lately.
Andre Petroski.
Torrez Finney.
Gerald Meerschaert.
That’s not a winning streak.
That’s a meal plan.
The Cupcake Tour
Malkoun’s victory over Andre Petroski in March 2024 came after Petroski shot for a takedown and appeared to hurt himself on the entry.
Then came Torrez Finney.
Malkoun dominated, landing 117 significant strikes to Finney’s 27 and winning by lopsided decision.
Credit where it’s due.
But Finney had only one UFC fight entering that matchup.
Then came Gerald Meerschaert.
And this is where I started losing confidence in Malkoun.
The GM3 Performance
Malkoun entered as an enormous favorite against a 38-year-old Meerschaert who’d lost four consecutive fights.
Three of those losses came by finish.
Meerschaert also missed weight by four pounds.
Everything was set up for Malkoun to dominate.
Instead, he struggled through 15 minutes and won 29-28 on all three scorecards.
His wrestling ultimately made the difference, but it wasn’t remotely the performance you’d expect from such a massive favorite.
When you’re favored at better than 10-to-1 against a declining veteran and still need late takedowns to secure the win, that’s a warning sign.
The Holes
Malkoun averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes.
But his own takedown defense sits around 33%.
That’s a concerning number against another strong wrestler.
He’s also not a dangerous finisher.
His lone UFC knockout came against Petroski, and he has no professional submission victories.
If he can’t impose his wrestling, his alternatives are limited.
The Akhmat Wrestler
Abubakar Vagaev is 25-4 and a former two-time ACA welterweight champion.
He’s spent years competing against high-level opposition and has the wrestling background to make this extremely difficult for Malkoun.
In his UFC debut against Saygid Izagakhmaev, Vagaev immediately attacked with takedowns, controlled clinch exchanges, and earned a unanimous decision.
Izagakhmaev is a legitimate grappler.
Vagaev controlled significant portions of that fight.
The Weight-Cut Factor
Vagaev’s debut wasn’t flawless.
He slowed down, absorbed clean punches late, and nearly got caught in an armbar.
But there was an unusual circumstance.
He’d originally prepared for a middleweight matchup before accepting a replacement fight at welterweight.
That required a significant late adjustment.
This time, he’s competing at 185 pounds with a full camp.
I expect his conditioning to benefit from the more manageable weight preparation.
The Tiebreaker
And yes, Vagaev also qualifies for our ridiculous OV/EV statistic.
He’s already won inside Etihad Arena.
Malkoun is coming off an underwhelming performance against a declining opponent.
I’ll take the experienced wrestler with the better recent showing against quality grappling opposition.
The Pick
I expect Vagaev to win enough wrestling exchanges, control the clinch, and neutralize Malkoun’s primary offensive weapon.
Pick: Abubakar Vagaev by decision.
ASAF CHOPUROV vs. COLBY THICKNESSE
Bantamweight
I think Asaf Chopurov is the real deal.
And I think Colby Thicknesse is about to have a very unpleasant introduction.
The Prospect
Chopurov is 24 years old, undefeated at 11-0, and has finished ten opponents.
He’s the UAE Warriors bantamweight champion and has already defended that belt twice.
But his professional record doesn’t tell the entire story.
He reportedly went 34-1 as an amateur.
That’s an extraordinary amount of experience for somebody his age.
This isn’t some inexperienced prospect who might freeze under the lights.
He’s spent much of his life competing.
He also trains with Petr Yan, who’s defending his own championship on this card.
Chopurov has been preparing alongside one of the best bantamweights in the world.
And he’s already familiar with Abu Dhabi.
Everything about this situation favors him.
Nothing Special
Colby Thicknesse is 9-1.
And I genuinely struggle to identify one area where he’s exceptional.
He’s not an elite puncher.
He’s not a dominant wrestler.
And his cardio has looked questionable.
He lost his UFC debut to Aleksandre Topuria by unanimous decision.
Then he defeated Josias Musasa in a fight where he started strongly but faded as the rounds progressed.
An accidental low blow gave him time to recover, and he eventually secured the takedown that helped him win.
Then came Vince Morales.
Vince fucking Morales.
A veteran who entered on a lengthy losing streak and was fighting for his UFC future.
Thicknesse had opportunities to finish him early but couldn’t capitalize.
By the third round, he was exhausted and getting hurt.
He failed on all six takedown attempts and barely survived to win the decision.
That’s not the kind of performance that inspires confidence against a prospect like Chopurov.
The Matchup
Thicknesse trains with Alexander Volkanovski.
Chopurov trains with Petr Yan.
Both champions are fighting on this card.
That’s a fun subplot.
But the more important difference is talent.
Chopurov has the superior finishing ability, extensive competitive experience, and a style built around pressure.
Thicknesse has repeatedly faded late against opponents who aren’t nearly as dangerous.
If Vince Morales could hurt him in Round 3, I don’t love his chances against Chopurov.
The Pick
Chopurov should pressure Thicknesse from the opening bell, force him to work, and capitalize as his conditioning deteriorates.
I think we’re watching the arrival of a future ranked bantamweight.
Pick: Asaf Chopurov by stoppage.
BOLAJI OKI vs. DANIEL SANTOS
Featherweight
I can’t believe I’m saying this.
But I really like Bolaji Oki here.
The Move Down
Oki spent his UFC career fighting at lightweight.
Now he’s moving to featherweight.
At 5-foot-10 with a 73-inch reach, he’s going to be enormous for the division.
Daniel Santos is a natural bantamweight who’s competed at both 135 and 145 pounds.
He’s 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.
That’s a three-inch height advantage and a six-inch reach advantage for Oki.
And unlike some fighters who move down in weight, Oki has a style that could benefit enormously from that size difference.
He’s a high-volume kickboxer who wants to establish range and overwhelm opponents with output.
The Volume
Oki lands approximately 6.42 significant strikes per minute.
That’s excellent volume.
Against Michael Aswell, he threw more than 300 strikes and landed 136 significant strikes over three rounds.
When he gets to establish his pace, he can bury opponents under constant activity.
And Santos is going to have to repeatedly close distance to land his own offense.
That’s exactly what Oki wants.
Why He’s Lost
Oki has struggled in the UFC, and he’s coming off consecutive defeats.
But look at the opponents.
Chris Duncan.
Mason Jones.
Manoel Sousa.
Those are legitimate, physical lightweights.
Against Jones, Oki scored an early knockdown and nearly finished him before Jones recovered and stopped him with elbows.
Against Sousa, Oki had competitive moments before getting caught late.
He wasn’t simply being outclassed from start to finish.
He was fighting physically demanding opponents who could match or exceed his size and strength.
That changes at featherweight.
The Cardio Concern
The biggest question isn’t necessarily Oki’s chin.
It’s his conditioning.
He fights at an extremely high pace, and his defensive discipline tends to deteriorate when he gets tired.
Against Jones, he expended significant energy trying to finish early.
Against Sousa, he faded late as the pressure increased.
And moving down in weight can make that problem worse.
A difficult cut to 145 could leave him depleted.
That’s the risk.
The Santos Matchup
Santos is tough and dangerous in close exchanges.
But he’s also coming off a stoppage loss to Dooho Choi.
His UFC victories have come against respectable competition, but nobody who represents an overwhelming stylistic advantage against Oki.
If Oki makes the weight comfortably, his length and volume should create major problems.
He doesn’t need to chase a finish.
He needs to keep Santos at range and consistently outwork him.
The Pick
This is the most favorable stylistic matchup Oki has received in the UFC.
He’s bigger, longer, and throws significantly more volume.
If the weight cut goes well, I expect him to win the striking exchanges.
Pick: Bolaji Oki.
KODY STEELE vs. NOAH GUGNON
Lightweight
This is a sneaky good matchup between two young fighters who prefer finishing opponents rather than collecting scorecards.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends early.
The Case for Steele
Kody Steele looked excellent in his last fight.
He submitted Dom Mar Fan with a first-round heel hook at 3:56.
That wasn’t some lucky scramble.
Steele is a legitimate grappler with a wrestling background and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
He’s competed extensively in high-level grappling and has the ability to finish opponents in multiple ways.
He’s 8-1 professionally, with four knockouts and two submissions.
His only defeat came against Rongzhu in his UFC debut.
And even in that loss, he showed tremendous toughness and competitiveness.
The Concern
Steele’s striking defense is questionable.
He’s absorbed more than six significant strikes per minute in his limited UFC sample and lands at approximately 32% accuracy.
That’s not sustainable against better strikers.
He also withdrew from a scheduled August fight against Gauge Young for undisclosed reasons.
We don’t know whether that involved an injury, illness, or something unrelated.
But unexplained withdrawals are worth considering when evaluating a fighter’s preparation.
The Case for Gugnon
Noah Gugnon is 25 years old, 10-2, and riding a six-fight winning streak.
He’s a dangerous finisher with six knockouts and four rear-naked choke victories.
His UFC debut against Milos Janicic lasted just 81 seconds.
But that performance deserves some context.
Janicic appeared to injure himself throwing an early kick that connected with Gugnon’s elbow.
Gugnon capitalized, attacked the compromised leg, and eventually secured the rear-naked choke.
Credit for taking advantage.
But the fight didn’t tell us much about how Gugnon performs against sustained resistance.
The Matchup
Both fighters are dangerous grapplers.
Gugnon prefers taking the back and hunting chokes.
Steele has a more established wrestling and submission-grappling background, including dangerous leg locks.
On the feet, Gugnon may be the cleaner striker.
Steele is aggressive but defensively vulnerable.
However, if the fight becomes a prolonged grappling battle, I favor Steele’s experience and technical foundation.
The Pick
Gugnon is dangerous, and Steele’s recent withdrawal adds uncertainty.
But Steele has faced tougher UFC opposition and demonstrated a broader grappling skill set.
Assuming he’s healthy, I favor him.
Pick: Kody Steele.
IASMIN LUCINDO vs. NICOLLE CALIARI
Women’s Strawweight
I like Iasmin Lucindo here.
The moneyline may be too expensive to offer much value, but the talent gap is substantial.
The Level Gap
Lucindo is only 24 years old, but she’s already 18-6 professionally and 5-2 in the UFC.
She’s beaten Marina Rodriguez, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Angela Hill, Polyana Viana, and Brogan Walker.
That’s a respectable résumé.
Before her suspension, she was ranked No. 7 in the strawweight division.
Her UFC losses came against Yazmin Jauregui and Amanda Lemos.
Now compare that with Nicolle Caliari.
Caliari is 1-2 in the UFC.
She lost to Ernesta Kareckaite and Carli Judice before dropping to strawweight and submitting Shauna Bannon.
That’s a completely different level of competition.
The Matchup
Lucindo is the better overall fighter.
She has stronger wrestling, more consistent striking, and superior experience against high-level opponents.
Caliari absorbs approximately 5.6 significant strikes per minute and defends only about half of her opponents’ takedown attempts.
Lucindo absorbs significantly less damage and has a much more effective offensive wrestling game.
She also has a four-inch reach advantage.
And if the fight goes to the mat, Lucindo has proven submission ability.
She finished Polyana Viana with an arm-triangle choke, the same submission Caliari used against Bannon.
The Suspension
This is the one legitimate concern.
Lucindo is returning from a nine-month anti-doping suspension after testing positive for mesterolone.
The investigation attributed the result to a contaminated compounded supplement, and the circumstances supported a reduced sanction rather than a finding of intentional use.
Still, she hasn’t competed since August 2025.
Fourteen months away from the Octagon is a meaningful layoff.
Ring rust is possible.
And we won’t know how sharp she looks until the fight begins.
The Pick
Even accounting for the layoff, Lucindo has too many advantages.
She’s younger, more experienced against elite competition, and better equipped to dictate where the fight takes place.
Caliari can make things uncomfortable, but I expect Lucindo to win the majority of the exchanges.
Pick: Iasmin Lucindo by decision.
UFC 333 QUICK PICKS
Fight
Prediction
Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Evloev by decision
Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3
Dvalishvili by decision
Volkov vs. Kuniev
Volkov by decision
Pico vs. Keita
Pico by decision
Kavanagh vs. Temirov
Temirov by KO, lean under
Reyes vs. Murzakanov
Murzakanov by KO
Krylov vs. Yakhyaev
Yakhyaev by first-round KO
Dawson vs. Aliev
Aliev by decision
Magomedov vs. Rowston
Abus Round 1, live Rowston angle
Malkoun vs. Vagaev
Vagaev by decision
Chopurov vs. Thicknesse
Chopurov by stoppage
Oki vs. Santos
Bolaji Oki
Steele vs. Gugnon
Kody Steele
Lucindo vs. Caliari
Lucindo by decision
FINAL THOUGHTS: TWO NEW CHAMPIONS, ONE VERY LONG NIGHT
I think we’re getting two championship changes in Abu Dhabi, although for completely different reasons.
Volkanovski is still one of the greatest featherweights of all time. Nothing that happens Saturday changes that. But Father Time is undefeated, and asking a 38-year-old with recent knockout losses to defend 25 minutes of relentless wrestling against Movsar Evloev is a hell of an assignment.
I don’t think Volk gets embarrassed. I don’t think he gets finished. I think he gets dragged into the kind of fight where he’s constantly defending instead of attacking, and when the scorecards come out, his championship reign is over.
Merab, on the other hand, is the fighter I think everybody has written off way too quickly.
He didn’t suddenly forget how to wrestle. He ran himself into the ground defending a championship at a ridiculous pace, fought a brilliant Petr Yan, and paid the price.
Now he’s rested, motivated, and fighting an opponent returning from major back surgery.
That’s a completely different situation.
And if Merab wins his belt back, I hope he celebrates by taking six months off and finally getting that nose fixed. The thing looks like it owes money to three different people.
As for the rest of the card, there should be plenty of violence.
Keita might send Pico into another dimension. Temirov and Kavanagh could produce a spectacular knockout. Yakhyaev might finish his fight before the broadcast team gets comfortable. And Asaf Chopurov looks like the kind of prospect we’ll all be talking about a year from now.
Then there’s Dawson versus Aliev, which should give everyone an opportunity to make dinner, walk the dog, file their taxes, and possibly learn a second language.
From a betting perspective, I’m particularly interested in the Kavanagh-Temirov under and the potential live opportunity on Cam Rowston if he survives Abus Magomedov’s early assault. But the number always matters. A good prediction and a good bet aren’t automatically the same thing.
Fourteen fights, two belts, and enough questionable chins to keep the ringside physicians busy.
Enjoy the fights, don’t chase bad numbers, and remember: just because a guy is undefeated doesn’t mean he can wrestle for 25 minutes without putting you to sleep in the process.
See you Sunday.
