UFC Edmonton Preview: Canada vs. The World, and I’m Not Singing O Canada
The UFC heads back to Rogers Place in Edmonton on Saturday, October 17, and apparently someone in the matchmaking department watched the Winter Olympics and decided we needed a little more international competition. Every single fight on this 13-fight card features a Canadian. Thirteen opportunities for the home crowd to lose its collective mind, and thirteen opportunities for me to ruin somebody’s Saturday night.
I have nothing against Canada. Beautiful country. Nice people. Hockey, maple syrup, and I absolutely love Canadian women. Frankly, the women alone have done more for Canada’s international reputation in my eyes than anything else the country has produced. It’s just their mixed martial artists I seem to have a problem with this weekend.
Unfortunately, none of those things help you defend a double leg or survive a left hook.
The UFC clearly wants a big night for the hometown fighters, but looking at some of these matchups, I’m starting to wonder if the matchmakers have something personal against the Canadian people. We’ve got aging veterans, questionable UFC-level talent, a couple of genuinely exciting prospects, and at least one fight that should probably be taking place behind a Buffalo Wild Wings instead of inside an NHL arena.
I’m not here to wave the maple leaf or make friends with the Edmonton crowd. I’m here to pick winners, and if that means spending Saturday night rooting against an entire country, so be it.
Thirteen fights. Thirteen Canadians. One very uncomfortable night for the national anthem.
Let’s get into it.
MAIN CARD
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
I don’t like Malott’s cardio over five rounds, and this is a five-round main event. This is only Malott’s second UFC headliner, and the first one ended in Round 3, so the championship rounds are uncharted territory. The one time a veteran dragged him deep and refused to go away, Neil Magny came back and stopped him in the third round at UFC 297.
Credit where it’s due: Malott is on a four-fight win streak, and in April he retired Gilbert Burns, dropping him twice before the Round 3 stoppage. But look at how he won. He stuffed all seven of Burns’ takedown attempts and didn’t try a single one of his own. That’s the point. Malott doesn’t chain wrestle. He’s a BJJ grappler who takes what’s there, not a guy who’s going to pin you to the fence and grind for 25 minutes.
And that’s the only thing that’s beaten Buckley lately. His two losses came to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, both by decision, both against guys who wrestled him into the mud for the full distance. Before that he’d won six straight, including a third-round stoppage of Colby Covington. Malott is not a Usman- or Brady-level wrestler, and he doesn’t wrestle in that style. Buckley is very, very hard to finish, he has the athleticism to scramble out of whatever Malott throws at him on the mat, and he brings a 76-inch reach to Malott’s 73.
Malott may look good early. He might even bank a round or two with the crowd behind him. But Buckley takes over as the gas tank drains, and I think he gets the finish. I love Buckley in this spot.
Prediction: Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO
Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Stylistically, this reminds me a lot of the Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson title fight from this summer. Both of those women are high-level wrestlers and grapplers, but one had a significant edge on the feet. Dern outstruck Robertson, took her down four times, nearly choked her out in the first round, and cruised to a lopsided decision. In this fight, Erin Blanchfield is playing the Dern role.
Blanchfield (14-2) has won two straight since the Manon Fiorot loss. She beat Rose Namajunas, right here in Edmonton in November 2024, and then Tracy Cortez. Jas (15-4) has been excellent too. She’s 6-1 in her last seven, the lone loss also coming to Fiorot, and she’s coming off a clean decision over Karine Silva in Winnipeg. But here’s a common opponent worth noting: Cortez beat Jas by decision in 2023, and Blanchfield beat Cortez.
Erin also has a huge edge in the intel department. Her right-hand gal, Fatima Kline, has already spent 15 minutes in the Octagon with Jas. Kline took that fight on about 10 days’ notice, in her UFC debut, up a weight class from strawweight. She lost all three rounds on the cards, so let’s not pretend it was close. But she dropped Jas to a knee at one point and survived 15 minutes of Jas’s top game. That’s a full scouting report from someone who’s felt the pressure firsthand, and it’s sitting in Erin’s camp.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Erin touches Jas up on the feet a little, gets this to the mat, and finds a finish there. Fair warning: the Dern-Robertson template went 25 minutes, so a decision is very much live. Either way, it’s Blanchfield.
Prediction: Erin Blanchfield
Cristian Perez vs. Kyle Nelson
I think this is another Canadian ass kicking. Kyle Nelson is done.
Perez isn’t your typical DWCS debuter. He’s 15-2 with 12 finishes, split evenly between knockouts and submissions, and he’s been around: Combate Global, even a stop in Karate Combat. He’s also 27. Nelson is 35.
Perez got a real education on the Contender Series this summer. Logan Paxton came out swinging and shooting, and Perez faced real adversity in Round 1. He stayed calm, turned the tide, and finished Paxton at 1:06 of Round 2. That was his second trip to DWCS. The first, in 2025, was a loss to Manoel Sousa that has aged like fine wine. Perez was largely controlling the first two rounds before Sousa’s sledgehammer fists caught up with him in the third. You have to wonder: if that’s a regular fight and not a Contender Series audition where you get penalized for not chasing the finish, does Perez win it? I think he might.
He’s a Mexican-style boxer with good cardio who can hang in the wrestling and grappling department too.
Nelson, meanwhile, got smoked by Terrance McKinney in March. Against McKinney the game plan is simple: survive the first three minutes and you’ll get the win. Nelson couldn’t do that. He couldn’t come close. He lasted 24 seconds (head kick, ground and pound, goodnight) and landed exactly one significant strike. He was getting his head punched through the canvas before the fighters were finished being introduced. It isn’t a one-off, either: Steve Garcia stopped him in the first round in 2024.
It’s all Perez here, and Perez finds the finish.
Prediction: Cristian Perez by finish
Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
What is good about Marc-Andre Barriault in the year 2026? He’s lost five of his last six and four straight, including a first-round knockout loss to Dustin Stoltzfus, and he’s 6-10 in the UFC. He’s on his way out. He’s tough and he brings pressure, but at 36 with this kind of mileage, that’s typically the downfall of these guys. The pressure stops being a weapon and starts walking him into the other guy’s offense.
Daukaus comes in off a loss on the front lawn to Bo Nickal at the White House, a first-round TKO where he never got going. No shame in that. Before it, though, he came back to the UFC looking like a different fighter, stopping Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert in under a minute each. He has improved leaps and bounds since returning, and this is a massive step down in competition from a three-time NCAA champion.
When Daukaus can be the hammer and not the nail, he’s very dangerous. Twelve of his 17 wins come by submission (they don’t call him “The D’Arce Knight” for nothing), and Barriault has been submitted before. At this point in their careers, Daukaus is the hammer. He keeps the Canadian shutout going on this main card.
Prediction: Kyle Daukaus
Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba
Finally, a winnable fight for Canada.
I think Louis is the more skilled of the two Jourdain brothers. Big brother Charles has made a living sitting back on the counter and waiting for someone to stick their neck in a guillotine; his last three UFC wins all came that way. Louis doesn’t sit back and wait. He comes in 9-3 on a four-fight win streak. He punched his ticket on the Contender Series with a third-round rear-naked choke of Magno Dias, and he owns an early-career win over Tony Laramie, now a RIZIN contender.
Cuamba kinda sucks. He’s 2-3 in the UFC, and in May he made Bernardo Sopaj look like the next man up for a title shot, getting finished in the second round.
Jourdain’s inactivity worries me. He hasn’t fought since September 2025, so he’s walking into his UFC debut after more than a year off. But looking back at his résumé, 11-plus months between fights is basically his norm. I just think Jourdain is better. I hate to chalk it out, but Jourdain is the lean. Maybe look for unders here.
Prediction: UNDER 2.5, Louis Jourdain (Lean)
Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr
Another winnable fight for the Canadians.
Nallo looked like he had Jai Herbert finished in his UFC debut in Winnipeg back in April, but somehow Herbert survived and stopped him at 2:05 of the first. Herbert put on a good, gritty veteran performance last weekend to back up that win, which is more encouraging for Nallo backers. But this fight really comes down to one thing.
Nate the Train is finished. He’s 38 and has been stopped in three straight. Doo Ho Choi stopped him in the third round, then Morgan Charriere knocked him out 27 seconds into the third. Most recently, 42-year-old Cub Swanson put him away in the first round of Swanson’s retirement fight. Five of Landwehr’s six UFC losses have come by KO/TKO. He still keeps his head on the centerline, but he doesn’t have the durability anymore to stay in the fight until he can turn the tables, which was always the Landwehr formula. Now he’s doing it at 155, against a natural lightweight.
It’s over for Nate. Nallo gets him out of there within two.
Prediction: Mandel Nallo inside two rounds
PRELIMS
Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz
This is a doozy. Both of these guys are terrible. Neither should be in the UFC, but here we are.
Boser is 5-6 in the UFC and hasn’t looked like a UFC fighter in years. His last win came over Aleksa Camur in August 2023. Then he disappeared from the promotion, came back in Winnipeg this April, and got stopped in the second round by debuting Gokhan Saricam. That’s two TKO losses in his last three, the other coming against Ion Cutelaba. He’s a volume kickboxer who never shoots, averaging zero takedown attempts per 15 minutes, so don’t expect any wrestling to bail him out.
Diniz isn’t much better. He’s a 35-year-old former kickboxer who is 3-2 in the UFC, both losses by TKO, including his most recent fight against Mario Pinto last October. What he does have is real kickboxing pedigree, a 6’4” frame and a 79-inch reach. Neither guy wrestles, so this is a guaranteed kickboxing match between two heavyweights with glass you can see through.
When you’re picking between two bad options, take the guy with the longer arms and the better technical striking background. Diniz by KO, and somebody is going to sleep. Probably.
Prediction: Jhonata Diniz by KO
Nick Galanti vs. Julien Leblanc
Galanti really impressed me with his power in his DWCS win. All I heard coming in was that he’s a pure pressure wrestler with no power and no finishing upside. Then he had his first takedown stuffed, broke off the clinch, cracked Carlos Petruzzella with a right hand, and finished him with ground and pound in 35 seconds. So much for no power.
The wrestling is still the base. Galanti is 8-1, rides a six-fight win streak, holds the CFFC middleweight title, and has four submission wins. He’s 28, with power he can fall back on when the takedowns aren’t there.
Julien Leblanc isn’t UFC level. It seems like they keep him around special for a Canada card. He made his UFC debut in Winnipeg this April and got submitted by Robert Valentin in 2:22 of the first round. He’s 34 and has zero UFC wins, and the reward for that performance was another Canadian card. The locals love him for whatever reason, but he has no talent. If Valentin could find his neck in under three minutes, a CFFC champion wrestler who lives on top position will have no trouble doing it.
Prediction: Nick Galanti by submission
Joel Faglier vs. Javad Mahjoub
To the eye, Faglier looks like an unathletic fat shit, and on the eye test alone Mahjoub is the more impressive physical specimen. But we’re not buying yearlings at the Keeneland September sale. We’re breaking down a fight, which ultimately comes down to skill, using that skill, and using it with some semblance of intelligence.
Faglier is 6-0, a 25-year-old who weighs in around 266 and has finished five of his six wins, half of them by submission. He replaced Louie Sutherland on short notice and is the more complete, more active fighter.
Mahjoub may be the worst fighter in the promotion that we refer to as an Olympian. He’s an Olympic judoka who turned pro in 2022 and has fought only five times since, including a two-year gap between 2023 and 2025. He’s 34, and his 5-0 record came against regional competition. He has good judo, but how far does judo alone get you in men’s MMA? If the judo throw isn’t there, there isn’t much else.
I think we see Faglier break Mahjoub down over 15 minutes with low kicks and his natural athleticism. The nine-year age gap won’t hurt either.
Prediction: Joel Faglier
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Mackenzie Stiller
How is this fight happening? How is Mackenzie Stiller getting a UFC fight? And why the fuck is Katlyn Cerminara coming back to fighting after having a baby?
Cerminara, formerly Chookagian, was a legit flyweight for years. She’s a karate- and boxing-based point fighter with a jab-heavy, kick-at-range style. She’s also 37, and she’s not a title contender by any stretch of the imagination. She hasn’t won a fight since May 2022. Her last outing was a decision loss to Maycee Barber in March 2024, and she gave birth to her daughter in August 2025. That’s two and a half years out of the cage, two straight losses and a pregnancy since her last win.
We’ve seen what this kind of comeback can look like, and not from just anybody. A literal champ, Mackenzie Dern, came back from having a baby and dropped a decision to Amanda Ribas, the first loss of her career, looking nothing like herself. Dern figured it out eventually, but that first one back was ugly.
Stiller is 27, 6-1, and a pure submission hunter: five of her six wins came by tapout, with some fun and flashy ones in the LFA. Her loss on TUF wasn’t outlandishly bad. She wasn’t finished or embarrassed, but I don’t think that plays at the UFC level.
I have no idea what to do here. I’m definitely not backing Katlyn after everything she’s been through and the layoff to get back here. If you’re forcing me, it’s the younger, more active fighter. It’s dog or pass based on price alone. Please go for a walk or use this time to get some food or a beer.
Prediction: Mackenzie Stiller (Dog or Pass)
Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow
The head scratchers continue. Why is this fight happening? Nobody knows, but here’s my best shot at it.
It’s two guys coming off long layoffs. Anheliger is a 39-year-old striker from Alberta who hasn’t fought since November 2024, when Cody Gibson shut him out on the cards (30-27, 30-27, 30-26) right here in Edmonton. He lands a respectable 3.1 significant strikes per minute, but he’s working with a 64-inch reach, and his takedown defense sits at 38 percent.
Koslow is even rustier. His lone UFC appearance was at UFC 282 in December 2022, nearly four years ago. But look at what he does: all six of his wins have come by submission. He trains at 10th Planet, averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes, and barely bothers striking at under one significant strike per minute. He’s a one-dimensional grappler, and he’s 29.
That one dimension lines up perfectly with Anheliger’s biggest hole. A 39-year-old with 38 percent takedown defense against a 29-year-old who exists only to drag people down and choke them isn’t a great combination. The ring rust is real on both sides, but Koslow’s game is simpler and survives rust better. Koslow gets him down and finds a neck.
Prediction: Steven Koslow by submission
Melissa Croden vs. Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea is a lot of fun. She’s big and throws bombs from all angles and sides. She’s also coming off a first-round armbar of Priscila Cachoeira in June, so she can surprise you. But there doesn’t seem to be any strategy or game plan in her fighting, and that’s the wrong way to approach a striker as clean and technical as Croden.
The numbers back it up. Croden lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy and absorbs just 1.8. Chandler lands 3.5 and eats 4.4 per minute, more than double what Croden takes. Chandler is 3-3 in the UFC, and Joselyne Edwards stopped her in the first round last year.
Croden is 8-3 and currently ranked No. 15 at bantamweight, and she’s coming off a clean unanimous decision over Daria Zhelezniakova in Winnipeg. Usually Chandler is the bigger woman in the cage, but not here: Croden is actually an inch taller, with the same 68-inch reach, so that advantage disappears. Croden also has 66 percent takedown defense, which kills Chandler’s grappling route.
I think this is a striking master class from Croden, and she wins a convincing decision.
Prediction: Melissa Croden by decision
Cody Chovancek vs. SuYoung You
Chovancek is 9-0 and comes out of Niagara Top Team. He wrestled in high school before adding kickboxing, and he does a bit of everything. He won the Unified MMA bantamweight title with a fifth-round calf slicer on a previously unbeaten Gage Gill, defended it over five rounds against Jordan Howard, and then got his contract on the Contender Series. In that fight he was down early against a longer Raphael Uchegbu, built momentum, and ended it with an overhand right 10 seconds into the third round. He has two five-round fights already and comes back from adversity. That’s a prospect.
You (16-4) is a Road to UFC tournament winner. He’s tough and grinds out decisions; all three of his Road to UFC wins went the distance. He started 2-0 in the UFC but is coming off his first loss in the promotion. Chovancek is light years ahead of him as a striker, so You needs to grapple to have a chance.
That’s the problem for You: Chovancek is no slouch on the mat. He has the wrestling base to fight off what You brings, and he’s dangerous enough in scrambles to make You pay for every shot. The only concern is the inactivity. Chovancek hasn’t fought since September 2025, so a little rust early wouldn’t shock me. I still like Cody a lot here.
Prediction: Cody Chovancek
FINAL THOUGHTS
Thirteen fights, thirteen Canadians, and judging by my picks, there’s a decent chance I won’t be welcome north of the border anytime soon.
To be fair, I’m not predicting a complete national disaster. I’ve got a few Canadians getting their hands raised. I’m just not convinced the rest of them should’ve been invited to the party in the first place.
Buckley is my favorite play on the card. I love the matchup, I don’t trust Malott’s gas tank, and I think the championship rounds are going to be a very unpleasant introduction to five-round fighting for the hometown favorite. Perez, Galanti, and Koslow are other spots where I see legitimate finishing opportunities.
And then there’s Cerminara vs. Stiller, a fight so uninspiring that I genuinely recommend using those 15 minutes to accomplish something productive. Walk the dog. Call your grandmother. Check the expiration date on the mustard in your refrigerator. Whatever you choose, I promise you won’t be missing the fight of the year.
The UFC wanted Canada vs. The World. I’m taking the world, with a couple of Canadian exceptions, and I’m fully prepared to be booed out of Rogers Place despite watching from my couch.
Enjoy the fights, enjoy the violence, and to my Canadian readers, I apologize in advance.
See? I’m practically one of you.
