UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Coming to America. No Eddie Murphy, no Arsenio Hall, and definitely no McDowell’s. After two straight weeks overseas in Abu Dhabi and Belgrade, the UFC is finally back on American soil at the familiar UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. I gotta say, I’m personally a big fan of the Saturday morning cards. There’s something about rolling out of bed, making breakfast, and watching people beat the shit out of each other before noon. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. This week’s card isn’t packed with star power, but we’ve got one of the UFC’s brightest lightweight prospects getting the biggest opportunity of his career, a handful of intriguing prospects looking to make a name for themselves, and enough heavyweight comedy to remind us why that division is the gift that keeps on giving. Let’s get into it.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld:
The 35 year old Gamrot vs one of the most promising prospects in the UFC. It’s a big step up for Salkilld, but I think he’s up for the task. Gamrot is a pressure wrestler who spams takedowns, but we’ve seen him have a hard time keeping guys down and maintaining that control. Salkilld can be taken down, and he will get taken down, but he’s shown the ability to get right back up. Salkilld is also a very underrated grappler and I think it’ll be a breakout performance for him on Saturday night.
The trajectory of Salkilld’s career and how the UFC is bringing him up the rankings is very reminiscent of how they’re handling Navajo Stirling. They’re kind of similar in their styles as well. They’re viewed as skilled strikers with underrated grappling and wrestling, both are good sized for their respective weight classes, and both are very athletic.
I think we see that five round cardio of Gamrot tested here. Having that five round gas tank as a pressure, spam wrestler, and having it as someone who’s looking to stay on the feet and strike is a whole different ball game. Even with all the fights and experience Gamrot has in the UFC, he’s only gone five rounds one time. Salkilld himself, in a much shorter career, has also gone five rounds once, coming away with a decision win. Yes, it was at a lower promotion and not in the UFC.
Gamrot is going to have his moments early. He’ll get his takedowns and he’ll look good, but around round three, when the takedowns start to get harder to come by and we see that gas tank starting to empty, I think we see Gamrot’s greatest kryptonite tested. His chin. And once a bad chin, always a bad chin.
Prediction:
Quillan Salkilld by finish.
Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo:
What the hell is this for a co-main event? Billy continues to take steps back in his UFC career. Billy Q was once a man with a limitless gas tank, the ability to eat whatever was thrown at him, and he’d just keep moving forward and pressure the shit out of you. How’s that worked out for him lately? He’s finished.
Diego is no spring chicken himself, yet he’s somehow less washed than his younger opponent. The takedowns will be there waiting for Diego. He’ll take advantage of Billy Q’s poor footwork and should have things his way however he likes it. It’s really as simple as Diego Ferreira being the better fighter at this stage of their careers.
The more I think about it, the more I dislike this fight and really have no strong feel for what happens here. It’s gotta be Diego, but I’m most confident in seeing someone get finished.
Prediction:
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance.
Lean Diego Ferreira.
Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle:
del Valle really shit the bed in his last fight. He had no answers for Jordan Leavitt’s takedowns and was dominated in a snooze fest. You have to hope del Valle used that loss as a learning experience and got better because of it.
The good news for del Valle is he gets the 42 year old Darren Elkins in his retirement fight. The last time we saw Elkins he got the shit beat out of him by Julian Erosa. Erosa has that in his bag of tricks where he’s capable of putting a beating on his opponent and Elkins really looked like a finished product. He can’t wear damage well and bleeds with the best of them. His cardio is also gone. That pressure and presence of constantly being in your face, the thing that made Darren Elkins, Darren Elkins, is completely gone.
I don’t see him being able to wrestle here and even if he tries, del Valle has a pretty decent squeeze and dangerous front chokes. Elkins may just be here for one last paycheck, but man does Dulgarian’s case against a federal jury look a whole lot worse after the del Valle-Leavitt fight. Maybe this one’s fixed too? Even if it isn’t, you gotta side with the heavy favorite here. I think whoever is officiating this one will have a short leash.
See you on the other side Darren.
Prediction:
Yadier del Valle by Submission.
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara:
The striker vs the grappler. Lemos can bang. She hits hard and it’s a definite step up in class for Thainara, but I think she’s game for it. Thainara has glaring holes in her game and a lot of areas with room for improvement, but the big thing here is the age gap. Lemos is 39 years old and Thainara is 11 years younger.
While Lemos has the big advantage in the striking and danger department, she’s dumb as a box of rocks. We see her lack of fight IQ in all her fights, especially the ones where she has to defend takedowns and grapple. Her cardio has also started to fade.
I think Lemos has some big moments on the feet early, but the longer the fight goes on, the more things start to shift in favor of Thainara. Her grappling will start to wear on Lemos and I think we see a rare female finish in this one.
Prediction:
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance.
Alexia Thainara by Submission.
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller:
I’m a pretty big fan of Ty Miller. He’s a big 170er and he has a huge physical advantage in this matchup against Goff. Goff’s biggest strength is in the striking department. He has good dirty boxing, but against a skilled and technical boxer like Miller, that strength may be nullified.
Miller starts patiently, but once he gets his range and timing down, his high volume output really gives his opponents trouble. Miller is a two time Golden Gloves winning boxer. But he’s truly well rounded and has the secondary weapons of wrestling and grappling to make Goff’s night a living hell.
The biggest thing here is just the physical edge for Ty Miller. He also fights very smart and just has unbelievable instincts in the cage. This just seems like Billy Goff being thrown to the wolves and a way to clear a roster spot just in time for DWCS prospects. Ty Miller will come out patient, but he’ll turn up the heat when he knows it’s time and the damage will build until the ref steps in and stops it.
Prediction:
Ty Miller by KO.
Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat:
This is a matchup between two very different types of striker. Guilherme Pat by definition is probably the more polished and technical striker, but he’s patient to a fault. We just saw him fight Steve Asplund’s main training partner, Thomas Petersen, and man was that a boring and brutal fight. Petersen, a pure American wrestler, was able to land some pretty good shots on Pat and between his time landing shots, he was able to stand or lay on the mat without really taking any pressure or anything dangerous coming back his way.
Steve Asplund on the other hand is a pressure machine. Don’t be fooled by his physique. He will walk forward and throw bombs for as long as the fight lasts. He’s got a hole in his grappling, but he doesn’t really have to worry about that with Pat.
I think we see Asplund walk Pat down, back him up against the cage and throw everything he’s got at Pat until Pat quits or the ref steps in and stops it.
Prediction:
Steve Asplund by TKO.
Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Bruno Lopes:
These guys both suck. I refuse to pick one of these. Where do I start with Diyar? His wrestling? Stinks. His grappling? Sucks. His striking? What’s worse than sucks? And his fucking tick drives me nuts. I’m not making fun of it but holy shit does it make it hard to focus on anything going on in the cage.
Bruno can get some takedowns in this matchup maybe, but he’s dog shit too. His durability is a big problem. This is really a matchup of really bad grappling vs a really bad chin. Which is worse? No clue. I just think we see one of these bozos get finished, somehow, some way.
Prediction:
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance.
I refuse to pick a side in this shit storm.
Louie Sutherland vs. Jose Montanha:
Heavyweight slop fest. Man do these guys suck. But there’s a difference between sucking in the UFC and sucking at the lower regional scene levels. Suck may be a little harsh for Sutherland as his two UFC losses have aged quite well. Valter Walker has proven to be the leg snatcher with his collection of flash foot, heel, and leg submissions and Brando “The Balkan Bear” Pericic looks to be a legitimate ranked contender in the heavyweight division.
The Vanilla Gorilla, Sutherland, did pick up his first UFC win last time out in Perth, where he beat the corpse of Tai Tuivasa. If you haven’t watched the replay of that fight, please don’t. It’s 15 minutes of your life you’ll never get back and the only excitement came from an illegal blow to the head by Tai which lost him a meaningless point in a fight he was already being swept on the scorecards.
As for his opponent on Saturday, I’m not really sure what to call him. He goes by 12 different names, and depending on what site you use to look at his profile he’s somewhere between the age of 29 and 41. Just kidding. ESPN has Sutherland fighting the complete wrong fighter and I will take a jab at that fast fading former “Powerhouse” any chance I get.
Montanha is 29. He’s coming in for his UFC debut on Saturday, and from the limited tape available on this guy, he sucks. His striking is brutal, his wrestling is pretty awful, his cardio sucks, and he just tries to pull guard and win fights off his back. Not exactly a recipe for success in the UFC.
We’ve seen other heavyweights come into the UFC who were also one trick BJJ ponies, but were actually very decorated BJJ specialists, and they flopped. Why is this guy who’s bad at everything else, and has competent BJJ, going to be different? He’s not.
This will be a quick lived experiment. Don’t miss your chance to fade a part time PREACHER. I mean what the fuck are we doing here, UFC? He’ll need more than Jesus here. He’s not even a black belt in BJJ. He just got his brown belt in December. If that’s the best skill on your résumé heading into the UFC heavyweight division, you’re probably in for a rough night.
Prediction:
Louie Sutherland by TKO. Montanha survives about as long as ESPN’s credibility after listing the wrong opponent.
Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda:
This is a fight I’m really looking forward to on this card. Manoel Sousa comes in off a win against Oki in his UFC debut. Sousa throws hard and wild, he’s very dangerous, but he didn’t look all that great to me in that fight against Oki. Yes, he found a very late finish and was on his way to a split decision win, but Richie Miranda is a different beast. The LFA legend comes in on short notice to make his UFC debut. He’s a cardio machine. His chain wrestling gives everyone issues, and he’ll overwhelm opponents with pressure. He can strike at range, he’s not afraid to force a clinch, and his chin is good. He’s similar to a Beneil Dariush before Benny lost his chin. This is the kind of matchup that I think would give Sousa some trouble. Sousa is definitely the more dangerous fighter who hits bigger, but Miranda is so good and well rounded and has an answer for whatever Sousa may throw at him.
I love this fight to make the judges’ scorecards and I think Miranda is very live to get his hand raised.
Prediction:
Richie Miranda by Decision.
Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas:
Miles Johns against Jessie Rosas wasn’t on my bingo card for matchups we’d see in 2026, but here we are. Miles Johns comes in having lost three fights in a row, but if you read between the lines, it’s really not as bad as it seems. He took the win machine Jean Matsumoto to a split decision, a true split that really could’ve gone either way, and then he was faced with the 18-1 and fast improving Daniel Marcos. Jessie Rosas, the older brother of Raul Rosas, comes in for his UFC debut. Don’t let his record fool you. He’s fought some real garbage cans on the regional scene, including his lone loss by submission to Keenan Lewis, a regional scene journeyman who is 2-5 by submission in his career. Yes, Chiwiwis Sr. made a mistake in that fight that led Lewis to take his back and lock in that choke, and yes he’s young and “improving,” but I need to see it at the UFC level first.
There are two things holding me back from running to the window on Miles Johns here. The first is that Johns is stepping up in weight class and takes this fight at 145. A move I normally wouldn’t mind until I tell you part two of why I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on Johns here, and that’s one of my biggest personal reasons to fade a fighter: he opened his own gym. To me, that’s the telltale sign of a guy who’s moving on to other things in his career, and he’s even on the record saying he doesn’t need to fight anymore, he has his gym and he’s content to teach. Not exactly what you want to hear from a guy before they step into a cage with another man trying to rip their head off.
In terms of pure skills on tape, it’s Johns. He has a load of UFC experience and he’s the better striker. But with the out of the cage stuff, I just can’t get there with conviction.
Prediction:
Fight Goes the Distance.
Juliana Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira:
Killer Miller is back for more. The Season 30 Ultimate Fighter winner will face off with Ravena Oliveira. Killer Miller is 2-3 since entering the UFC. Not the most sparkling record you’ve ever seen, but her three losses came against foes a lot better than Ravena.
In her last fight against Carli Judice, a dynamic striker who was a 6-1 favorite, Miller managed to stay safe and actually find Carli’s back and had everyone holding a Judice ticket shitting in their pants a little bit. That’s what Miller does. She’s a crafty BJJ specialist. She’s a huge threat in that department and that’s the biggest disparity in talent in this fight.
The jiu jitsu of Miller is leaps and bounds ahead of anything Oliveira brings to the table here. Oliveira, 0-3 since entering the UFC, has lost to every kind of fighter you really see in WMMA: the size bully, the grappler, and the pure striker. In what is certainly a loser leaves town fight, I think we see Miller make her way to Oliveira’s back and find a submission here.
Prediction:
Juliana Miller by Submission.
*Late Addition*
Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro:
This was a great addition to the card. A pure BJJ specialist against a pressure striker. I’m confident we see a finish in this one.
Gigi Canuto is the second fighter we’ve seen in the last few weeks make her UFC debut after losing on The Ultimate Fighter. She at least won a fight on the show before falling in the semifinals. Despite the loss, her jiu jitsu is extremely impressive. She locked in a few very, very deep submission attempts, and I think she even broke her opponent’s arm with one of them before completely gassing out. With Gigi, it’s not a lack of talent. It’s the cardio that’s concerning.
She’ll face off with Carol Foro, a prolific striker with a tremendous gas tank. Foro was ultra impressive on last season’s DWCS. She pieced up prized British prospect Shanelle Dyer on the feet and stuffed all 11 of Dyer’s takedown attempts. But that was a bit of smoke and mirrors. Dyer isn’t known for her wrestling, and those takedown attempts were mostly desperation shots while she was getting her ass beat on the feet.
I actually like both these ladies quite a bit, and it’s hard to pick a side. For you degenerates out there who need action on every fight, I’d look at the double method result of Gigi by Submission or Foro by KO. I actually like that quite a bit.
Ultimately, I think this fight ends inside the distance.
Prediction:
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance.
Double Method:
Gigi Canuto by Submission / Carol Foro by KO
At first glance, this card doesn’t exactly jump off the page. There’s no title fight, no former champions, and no massive pay-per-view headliner. But not every UFC event has to be UFC 300 to be entertaining.
Quillan Salkilld gets the biggest opportunity of his young career against a legitimate top lightweight. Richie Miranda finally gets his long-awaited UFC debut. We’ve got a couple of heavyweight train wrecks that are almost impossible to look away from, and a handful of prospects who could be fighting for rankings a year from now.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe this card ends up being a complete dud. But these are usually the cards that surprise everyone. The ones nobody wants to watch somehow end up being absolute chaos.
Enjoy the fights, enjoy having the UFC back on American soil, and I’ll see you all back here next week for the recap. Hopefully ESPN knows who’s actually fighting by then.
