The UFC heads to Serbia this weekend with one of the more unusual Fight Night cards we’ve seen all year.
The main event between Uroš Medić and Daniel Rodriguez feels like it came out of nowhere, but there are still plenty of intriguing storylines throughout the card. Navajo Stirling gets the biggest opportunity of his career against former champion Jan Błachowicz, Aleksandar Rakić makes his long-awaited move to heavyweight, and several European prospects look to make a statement in front of a home crowd.
Let’s break it all down.
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez Predictions & Full Fight Breakdown
Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez:
The main event. A very strange main event. Not the main event we necessarily wanted, but the one we were given.
Uroš Medić has that God-given death touch. His chin isn’t great, and he struggles fighting off his back foot, but nobody has really been able to expose either weakness in his last few fights.
Daniel Rodriguez has spent eight months in a Mexican prison since his last fight a little less than a year ago. That’s a lot of time to be out of training. He admittedly lost quite a bit of muscle mass, and his age, 39, doesn’t help matters here.
When we saw him last, he pulled off a big upset against Kevin Holland, a fight that looked like Holland had in the bag after a rough start. Then Kevin Holland did Kevin Holland things. He had D-Rod completely gassed and hurt, and he kept trying to land flying knees rather than peppering the body.
Kevin Holland is better known for his grappling and BJJ than his power, and not many possess the power and hand speed that Medić does. D-Rod doesn’t have the wrestling to drag this thing out and wear on Medić, and for that reason I think this thing ends quick.
I know the UFC is giving us five rounds, but this one doesn’t make it out of two. Maybe even one.
Prediction:
Uroš Medić by KO (Round 1)
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Jan Błachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling:
Navajo Stirling comes in undefeated and gets the biggest test of his career on short notice. Jan Błachowicz is a grizzled vet and has some of the heaviest, most damaging leg kicks in the division.
I think Navajo Stirling is legit. He’s a freak athlete for the division, and he’s shown that killer instinct many questioned early on in his UFC career.
There’s a few knocks on Jan coming into this one. The first is the knee surgery he underwent earlier this year that forced him to pull out of his fight against Bogdan Guskov on the UFC 328 card in Newark. A torn meniscus, when you rely so heavily on your kicks and legs, at 43 years old, is very concerning to me.
The other knock is that Jan was the first choice to replace Khalil Rountree last week against Ank, and he was hesitant to accept. In an industry with so much money on the line for the organization, it’s shit or get off the pot, and that level of doubt is not something you like to see from a veteran like Jan.
The right shoulder and the knee are really the big concerns here.
Navajo Stirling, the next big prospect out of City Kickboxing, does a great job mixing things up and is a very technical kickboxer. He sets his shots up with feints and fakes, and he’s so light on his front foot, which should help neutralize Jan’s biggest weapon, those devastating calf kicks.
Ultimately, the age and injuries are just too much for Jan to overcome. Navajo Stirling takes the next step in the UFC and gets his hand raised on Saturday night.
Prediction:
Navajo Stirling by Decision.
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Aleksandar Rakić vs. Marcin Tybura:
This is a loser leaves town game. Tybura is turning 41 this fall, and Rakić makes a desperation move up to heavyweight. Despite the move, Rakić is the taller fighter and has the same reach as Tybura.
From a frame perspective, I like the move up in weight for Rakić. He was massive at 205 and had to cut a lot of weight to get there. That should help his durability and ability to absorb damage.
The biggest difference in this fight comes down to movement and footwork. It’s really no contest, the advantage Rakić has in that department. Tybura is the definition of a slow, plodding heavyweight. He can’t move nearly as well, and he’s nowhere near as athletic.
I think we see Rakić come out fast and on fire, then plead for the wire late.
Prediction:
Aleksandar Rakić by Decision
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Duško Todorović vs. Robert Valentin:
I think Duško is finished. We’ve seen his durability fade quickly. His only win in his last four fights came against a guy who went 0-5 in the UFC, including DWCS, and is no longer on the roster in Jose Medina.
Duško also doesn’t do a good job moving his head off the center line and leaves it there to be smoked.
Robert Valentin finally got off the duck in the UFC. It was a long time coming, but he was welcomed to the promotion with some brutally tough matchups. He’s very unorthodox and unpredictable at times, but in his last fight we saw him get back to the basics against LeBlanc, and it worked for him.
I think we’ll see more of that on Saturday, and Duško will inevitably put himself in a dangerous position to become another victim of Valentin’s power and explosiveness.
Prediction:
Robert Valentin
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Vlasto Čepo vs. Gilbert Urbina:
El Chapo vs. Urbina.
El Chapo comes over from Oktagon for his UFC debut. He’s a high-volume pressure fighter. He’s wild, he’s dangerous, and he wants to brawl.
Urbina is tall and lanky, and I guess the best thing about him is his toughness. He’s moving up to 185 for this one, but ultimately he’s just not very good. His kicks are okay, his front kicks are okay, but overall he leaves a lot to be desired.
El Chapo is going to have him backing up onto his back foot, and I don’t think Urbina has the footwork to handle that kind of pressure.
Can the move up to 185 help his durability? Possibly. But ultimately it should hurt his mobility and footwork, which he’ll need against a barn burner like Čepo.
We’ll see a finish in this fight, and I think it’s a Čepo KO.
Prediction:
Vlasto Čepo by KO
Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev:
Klein comes back off a nasty leg injury suffered in his last fight, an injury that occurred in the third round after he was putting a beating on Rębecki through two.
Klein managed to stay on bottom and survive to the final bell, getting out of there with a decision win.
These guys are both good strikers. Tofiq being the more dangerous and powerful guy, and Klein being more of a sniper.
Tofiq “won” that last fight against Bahamondes because of one of the most blatant fence grabs I’ve ever seen. A fence grab that completely changed the position and momentum of the fight, leading to Bahamondes going down to the mat and eating a nasty elbow to the forehead that split him open badly and made things look more like a murder scene than an MMA fight. All of it made possible because of the fence grab.
Bahamondes was well on his way to finishing that fight. Really a shame no action was taken for that.
The bottom line in this matchup on Saturday is how healthy that leg of Klein really is. If he’s close to 100%, I’m confident he walks away with a win here.
We saw Klein take a grappling match in May where he claimed to be feeling 100% healthy and that everything was good, so all I can do is take him at his word at this point.
Obviously things change when you’re throwing and absorbing kicks with that leg, but I’ll have faith in modern medicine here.
Prediction:
Ludovit Klein by Decision
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Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira:
Oliveira comes in undefeated off a really nice finish on DWCS, earning him his UFC contract.
Oliveira has heavy hands and dynamic striking skills. His wrestling and grappling are pretty unknown.
Oban Elliott is going to try to grapple here, but I think the physicality and forward pressure from Oliveira will make him tough to take down.
Oban Elliott looked to be in complete control in his last fight against Jonathan Micallef before somehow getting choked out. I think that fight was very telling of what Oban Elliott is.
He’s disappointing.
I think Oliveira can be something serious.
Prediction:
Michael Oliveira by KO
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Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad:
I’ll keep this one short and sweet.
Buzukja sucks.
He’s a nepo baby that ended up in the UFC somehow, and he’s still here somehow.
Grad is far from a world beater in his own right. He looked good in the first round of his last fight against Luke Riley, who I think is a promising prospect. Grad dominated the first round with his grappling before getting caught in the second by a guy who’s simply more talented.
Ultimately, this comes down to Buzukja sucking.
Prediction:
Bogdan Grad
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Mateusz Rębecki vs. Kyle Prepolec:
Rębecki is back on a quick turnaround following his loss to Grant Dawson. He got off to a slow start in that one and really looked to be turning the tables in Round 2 before Dawson took control again and found the submission late.
Kyle Prepolec has really fallen off since returning to the UFC.
Rębecki should cruise to victory here. His only issue is how poorly he wears damage. He’s got Nate Diaz-level scar tissue and starts bleeding if you look at him funny.
Overall, he’s the far better and more dangerous fighter.
Prediction:
Rębecki by Finish
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Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon:
Gugnon is the better wrestler. Milos Janicic has a sparkling record, but he hasn’t fought anything worth a shit to get to this point. I think it’s also pretty telling that no bigger promotion, let alone the UFC, has ever come calling. If this fight wasn’t in Serbia, there’s no chance we’d be seeing him either.
I don’t trust anything in this fight, but I do think Noah Gugnon gets it done in this one.
Prediction:
Noah Gugnon
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Nina Milošević vs. Hailey Cowan:
I think this is the end of the road for Hailey Cowan. The UFC has given her every chance to gain steam and momentum in her UFC career, and time after time she drops the ball.
I think that last fight against Pereira, where she took that nasty knee and got her lights put out, was the nail in the coffin.
She can use her size and be a cage bully, but I don’t think that happens Saturday night to Nina.
Nina isn’t the best fighter in the world, but she’s just better than Hailey Cowan in every aspect of the sport. Nina also has really nice back takes, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her get to the back of a tiring Hailey and end things on the mat.
Prediction:
Nina Milošević by Submission
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Jovan Leka vs. Alexander Poppeck:
You know what you’re getting with Leka. He wants to be a bully, and he understands the assignment. Is it fun and exciting to watch? Absolutely not. But he sticks to what works for him and gets the job done.
Poppeck isn’t a heavyweight and comes into this one making his UFC debut in career fight No. 27. The discrepancy in physicality is big here. The German regional scene is awful as well.
If Leka continues to do what he does, be that cage bully, and get on top once this thing hits the mat, it’s a rinsing.
Prediction:
Jovan Leka
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Marina Spasić vs. Stephanie Luciano:
I’ll keep this one short and sweet as well.
Marina Spasić is the local sacrificial lamb, being sent to slaughter on Saturday.
Luciano is far from spectacular, but she’s UFC level. Luciano has shown flashes of improvement from fight to fight. Her striking has become competent, and I think she gets to take advantage of the lack of UFC-level competition she’s up against.
We may even see the rare women’s finish.
Prediction:
Stephanie Luciano by Submission
This card may not be loaded with title implications, but it’s got plenty of opportunities for fighters to change the trajectory of their careers.
Navajo Stirling has a chance to announce himself as a legitimate contender against a former champion. Aleksandar Rakić gets what feels like one last shot to prove he still belongs among the elite, this time at heavyweight. And for several newcomers making their UFC debuts, Saturday could be the start of something much bigger.
As for the main event, I think the UFC gave us five rounds when they only needed one. Uroš Medić has the speed, power, and finishing ability to make this a short night.
Enjoy the fights, and I’ll see you back here next week.
