UFC Fight Night Sacramento: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Full Card Preview and Predictions
The UFC heads to Sacramento this Saturday night for a Fight Night card that, on paper, actually has a little bit of everything. We’ve got some legitimate prospects, a few fun matchups, some absolute slop in the heavyweight division, and a couple of fights where I genuinely have no idea how some of these people are still employed by the UFC.
At the top of the card, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez returns against Gregory “RoboCop” Rodrigues in a main event that should be absolute chaos for however long it lasts. You’ve got RoboCop trying to take Fluffy’s head off before his gas tank disappears, while Fluffy should be looking to survive the early storm and turn this thing into the kind of miserable pressure-wrestling fight he thrives in.
There are also a few fighters on this card that I’m genuinely excited to watch. Lerryan Douglas gets another chance to show off that ridiculous power, Anthony Wint makes an insanely quick turnaround after his Contender Series win, and Marcio Barbosa appears to have been given a human sacrifice in Ryan Kuse.
Is this the greatest Fight Night card the UFC has ever put together? Absolutely fucking not. There are going to be moments Saturday night where you question why you chose to spend your evening watching two grown men lean against a cage instead of doing literally anything else with your life.
But there are enough good fights sprinkled throughout this thing to make it worth watching, and the main event alone has the potential to turn into a complete shitshow.
Let’s get into UFC Fight Night Sacramento.
Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez vs. Gregory “RoboCop” Rodrigues:
This is great matchmaking by the UFC. You have a guy in RoboCop who is a headhunter. He throws big and hard and looks to take your head off with every punch, but his cardio is extremely questionable. Fluffy is a slow starter with a great chin and tremendous cardio. His weakness is that he’s so soft to the body and can be hurt there badly.
This would be a no-brainer pick with Fluffy had I not watched him go two and a half rounds against Sean Strickland and not try to wrestle. Fluffy is a great pressure wrestler, he’s dangerous on the mat, and that’s clearly his best path to victory against anyone he fights. It’s concerning that he abandoned that strategy in his last fight.
We’ll know early what we’re in for here. If Fluffy can weather the early storm, I think he’ll finish RoboCop. If Fluffy decides he wants to strike again, he’s just been exposed too many times to the body for me to trust him to survive RoboCop’s power.
Fluffy spent his fight camp training with Sean Strickland, so we know he spent a lot of time sparring and building his cardio and endurance, which has never been an issue for him. It just makes me wonder how much he really worked on getting the wrestling back involved in his game plan.
I think the best move in this fight is to play an under and, if Fluffy survives the first round, hop in on him live. RoboCop is extremely dangerous, but his chin sucks and his cardio is worse. He cuts a lot of weight to make 185, which helps explain those two gaping holes. Those weight cuts only get more difficult as you get older and the more times you go to the well.
Prediction:
Under 3.5 Rounds
Live: Anthony Hernandez if he survives R1.
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Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino:
More of heavyweight’s finest. It seems there’s a theme in this division. You can either be a fat shitbag who can fight a little bit and has no gas tank, or you can look like you were made in a lab but ooze more estrogen than Manny Ramirez trying to beat a PED suspension.
Petrino looks the part, but he’s pretty soft. He has the power and the ability, he just lacks the killer instinct. He has decent wrestling and grappling, but his biggest strength is his pure athleticism.
Spivac fits the mold of the former. He’s the fat shitbag who can fight a little bit. This is a big step up in the grappling department from what Vitor Petrino just faced in Steve Asplund. Spivac doesn’t have the same power, but he has a good enough jab to earn respect. If he can get on top of Petrino, he has a decent ground-and-pound game.
I think this is a fight we see make it to the final horn. Neither of these guys really screams finish here. If I had to pick a fighter, I’d lean Spivac. I just don’t like how mentally soft Petrino is and how he lacks that killer instinct.
Prediction:
Fight Goes the Distance/Over
Lean: Serghei Spivac
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Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze:
A couple of guys moving up to light heavyweight here, but for different reasons. RDR makes the trek up in weight to try to make a career resurgence. The cut down to 185 was really starting to wear on him, and it was apparent in his fights.
Dolidze seems to be taking the leap because he thinks it’ll be easier competition. I can’t say I disagree with him there. The light heavyweight division is brutal, but I’m not sure how much Dolidze really has to offer anymore in the UFC.
I think RDR moving back up will really do a lot for his career. He was a huge middleweight, he has the right frame for 205, and I think he can go on a bit of a run here and get his career back on track. RDR does really well with his knees in the clinch, and he has an unorthodox style with his striking. It was just the weight cuts that were killing him.
This is a get-right spot for RDR, and I think he gets right. Dolidze may be tough enough to survive to the final horn, but I don’t see him giving RDR a whole lot of trouble.
Prediction:
Reinier de Ridder by Decision
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MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones:
This is one of the better fights slated for this Sacramento card. These are two guys who like to march forward and bring pressure. They just do it at different levels.
I think Mason Jones will take one to give one, but the one he gives just seems to be better and more effective. He put an absolute beating on Axel Sola for three rounds in his last fight, while Mederos initially lost when he first left the Octagon, only for them to realize the fight was actually a draw. That means if it weren’t for a nut shot by Mederos in the third round, he actually would’ve gotten his hand raised. I didn’t think that was the case watching it, and I had backed Mederos live.
Ultimately, I think this comes down to Mason Jones having the bigger and flashier moments. I don’t think he finds a finish because Mederos is tough, and he will have his moments landing his own fair share of shots, but Jones just does it better.
Prediction:
Mason Jones by Decision
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Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves:
Carli Judice has a clear advantage on the feet in this one. Her close decision win over Juliana Miller last time out has aged quite nicely after the dominant BJJ display Miller put on Ravena Oliveira a couple of weeks ago.
Judice won’t be faced with that kind of grappling threat here against Chaves. Chaves is okay. She’ll continue to improve and may be a solid fighter down the road, but I think Carli will be too much for her Saturday night. The pressure and striking should overwhelm Chaves, and I think Judice is live to find a finish.
Prediction:
Carli Judice by KO
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Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman:
Wint said he wasn’t leaving Vegas until the UFC booked him a fight, and he got his wish. Just 10 days removed from his first-round DWCS win, Wint will be back in the cage against Terrance Chatman.
Where the fuck did they find this guy? It’s like Dana White sent one of his minions to the local buffet, told him to find the fattest guy there, and ask if he wanted to step into the Octagon for a quick payday.
Is Wint going to be a champion? Probably not. He’s small for the division, he’s not that young after pursuing a pretty successful football career, and he hasn’t fought anything worth a shit in his MMA career. That trend continues Saturday night.
I think Wint takes care of business rather easily. One takedown, one flurry of ground and pound, and this fight is history.
Prediction:
Anthony Wint R1 Finish
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Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas:
Lerryan Douglas is one of the more exciting prospects at 145 lbs. He has dynamite in his fists and power you don’t really see at these smaller weight classes.
Jamall Emmers is a journeyman. He’s coming off a win against Hyder Amil, which hasn’t aged very well, in a fight where he just wrestle-fucked Amil. Watching it, you would’ve thought his name was Jamall Emmersov.
I don’t think that game plan will work against Douglas. Douglas is always walking forward and looking to knock your head off your neck. It’s near impossible for Emmers to shoot while being constantly walked down and forced onto his back foot.
I think this is another building block for an exciting UFC prospect who can be built up and fast-tracked to bigger and better things.
Prediction:
Lerryan Douglas by KO
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Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev:
Two of the finest the heavyweight division has to offer. Isn’t that unfortunate?
These guys are pretty low level and cannot be trusted in the Octagon. The UFC tried hard with Shamil. They wanted him to be a big name in the heavyweight division, and he just dropped the ball. Whether it was his cardio or his durability, something was always failing him, and now he’s just another fat guy in the heavyweight division.
Kennedy Nzechukwu. What a disaster. He has the physical tools necessary to be a contender in the heavyweight division, but man, is he impossible to trust. I guess he’s the more skilled fighter here, but I see this being a greasy slop fest in the heavyweight division. Lots of leaning and cage pushing. You can probably take the dog out for a walk and not miss a whole lot.
The bottom line is neither of these men can be trusted.
Prediction:
Over 1.5 Rounds
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Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast:
Chris Padilla was pretty underwhelming last time. I thought he did enough to beat MarQuel Mederos, but apparently he got very lucky to get kicked in the nuts in that third round and get out of there with a draw.
Nasrat has one of the best-aging losses in the UFC to Quillan Salkilld. He was actually doing pretty well in that fight for two minutes before his head met Salkilld’s foot and he was brutally KO’d. I like that he’s taken his time coming back from that vicious of a knockout.
This is one of, if not the hardest fights to pick a side in on this card. Haqparast is a solid striker who brings volume, and he can stuff a takedown. Chris Padilla is very well-rounded. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, ace-of-none kind of fighter. That style can work until you try to climb the rankings. He’s durable, he has a very good gas tank, and he can bring volume and pressure as well.
Skill for skill, I think Haqparast is the better fighter. Padilla is just a junkyard dog who will keep coming at you. This is another one where I have a hard time picking a side, but I don’t think we see a finish here. The lean is Haqparast.
Prediction:
Fight Goes the Distance/Over
Lean: Nasrat Haqparast
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Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse:
I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Ryan Kuse should kiss his wife and kids. He should call his parents, grandparents, and any and all loved ones.
He’s being sent to slaughter.
He sucks. He’s not UFC level. He doesn’t move his head off the center line, and Barbosa swings for the fences.
This one is quick.
Prediction:
Barbosa by KO
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Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil:
This is another close fight. Stan gets the call from LFA to make his UFC debut. This raises the question: Why isn’t he fighting on Contender Series? We saw this a couple of weeks ago with Richie Miranda.
Stan is a big, strong striker. He’s rangy, he just lacks seasoning with only five pro fights and a limited amateur resume. He’s definitely the more dangerous fighter here.
Gauge is going to have to eat damage. The good news is, he’s a tough son of a bitch. Young is a well-rounded guy with solid striking and good enough wrestling. One thing Gauge Young does very well is manage the distance and mix up his looks to land takedowns.
Another really close fight, but I have to lean toward the experience here. I think Gauge will do enough to win minutes, and while Stan may very well have the biggest moments in the fight, I think Young wins more minutes.
Prediction:
Gauge Young by Decision
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Wes Schultz vs. Jackson McVey:
These guys are absolutely terrible.
Wes Schultz’s stand-up game may be the single worst stand-up game in the entire organization. Totally useless on the feet. The fact that he won a fight in the UFC needs to be investigated.
He was getting his ass beat by Ben Johnston in his last fight for two-plus rounds, and then the 35-year-old coming off a two-year layoff just gassed. We all know what happens when a fighter gets tired. They give up their neck. That’s exactly what happened.
Wes Schultz really sucks.
Now to get into Jackson McVey, we’ll go from sucks to stinks. McVey presents the threat to really put Schultz away early, and by default, I think he does. McVey is okay on the feet, especially if he can get into the clinch and throw knees. McVey may even have the better submission game here.
One of these guys is getting finished, and I think it’s likely Schultz.
Prediction:
Jackson McVey by Finish/Under 2.5
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Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed:
In no world should Shanelle Dyer be a 9/1 favorite against anybody. She’s got a good stand-up game, but she’s there to get hit.
Now here’s the problem: Elise Reed sucks.
She’s been finished five times in her nine-fight UFC career. This feels like a lamb being sent to slaughter. Combat sports are more fun when England has a star. Shanelle Dyer is no star, but the UFC is doing all they can to try.
I’m just not buying it. She is too flawed. We saw Carol Foro light her up on the feet and stuff her pathetic takedown attempts at will on last year’s Contender Series, yet somehow she was still awarded a UFC contract. They fed her the worst the UFC has to offer in Ravena Oliveira, and to Dyer’s credit, she found the finish against her.
I don’t want to back Dyer here, especially at -900, but it’s even harder to back Reed. I think we’ll see a finish here.
Prediction:
Under 2.5 Rounds
That’ll do it for UFC Fight Night Sacramento. This isn’t a card I’m going to sit here and try to sell you as some can’t-miss event, because it’s not. There’s some good stuff here, there’s some bad stuff here, and there’s some heavyweight MMA that probably shouldn’t be shown to children.
The main event is easily what I’m looking forward to most. RoboCop is going to come out trying to murder Fluffy, and we should find out pretty quickly whether Hernandez remembered that he’s one of the best pressure wrestlers in the division or if Sean Strickland convinced him that he’s a kickboxer now.
Outside of that, I’m excited to see what Lerryan Douglas can do, Anthony Wint gets thrown right back into the fire just 10 days after Contender Series, and apparently Ryan Kuse did something horrible in a past life because now he has to stand across the cage from Marcio Barbosa.
There are definitely spots to attack on this card, but there are also a few fights where the smartest betting strategy might be keeping your money in your pocket. Not every fight needs action, especially when we’re dealing with some of the characters the UFC has assembled for us Saturday night.
So enjoy the violence, pray the heavyweight fights don’t take 15 minutes off our lives that we’ll never get back, and hopefully we make a little money along the way.
Until next time.
