UFC Vegas 121 Preview
Normally, this is the part where I tell you to cancel your Saturday night plans, order some food, plant your ass on the couch and prepare for a full night of fights.
This Saturday? Maybe go outside.
UFC Vegas 121 is an absolute slop fest on paper. Outside of a few intriguing matchups, this feels less like a UFC card and more like the matchmakers realized they had a bunch of contracts they needed to clear before the end of the year.
We’ve got aging veterans, fighters coming off major injuries, TUF finalists, questionable UFC-level talent and betting lines that make absolutely no fucking sense. Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos is our five-round main event, and somehow Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black might be the fight I’m most excited to watch.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
Usually, I’d recommend dropping whatever you have planned to kick back and watch the fights. This Saturday may be the rare night where I recommend taking a step away. Go to dinner. See some friends. Spend time with your family. Remind yourself what life was like before you developed an unhealthy attachment to watching unranked fighters beat the shit out of each other at the UFC APEX.
But if you’re like me, none of that matters.
We’re going to watch this slop anyway.
So let’s try to find some winners.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
Not the main event we wanted, but the main event we needed.
Raoni Barcelos has been the gift that keeps on giving during this win streak, winning fight after fight at dog odds. He has a frying pan for a head, and I’d love to know his “vitamin” regimen so I can follow it myself. I mean, the guy is a real-life Benjamin Button.
That being said, I haven’t been able to scroll through my Twitter timeline without seeing everyone and their mother on Barcelos in this fight.
At first glance, it looks clear and obvious. I’ve never really been a Raul Rosas Jr. guy in the UFC. If he can’t get the takedown, he shits himself and has no idea what to do. Barcelos should be able to frustrate the much younger Rosas.
We’ve seen Barcelos go against fighters with much greater skill sets than Chiwiwis, and he just takes it to them and gives them a good schooling.
The overwhelming Barcelos love from the public masses is really the only thing preventing me from going all-in on him here. Instead, I think the better option is taking the points with Barcelos, especially against a fighter with zero five-round experience like Rosas.
Prediction: Raoni Barcelos +5.5
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek
This line makes no sense to me.
Vieira seems like he wants no part of fighting anymore, yet he’s north of a -160 favorite at the time of me writing this. Even stranger, there’s been plenty of Vieira money coming in despite Bryczek being a popular public dog pick, and for good reason.
This is a major step down in class for Bryczek after getting dominated by Cam Rowston in Australia in his last fight.
Vieira is getting older, and it feels like he’s losing his heart and desire to do this. Bryczek is a low-volume, technical boxer with terrible takedown defense.
So, naturally, this is another fight that makes my head hurt.
I see clear paths to victory for both guys, which usually means it’s a spot to hold off on and watch the fight for a few minutes before jumping into the deep end.
If Bryczek can stuff the takedowns, he should coast. If Vieira can land them without breaking a sweat, he should coast.
Watch for that.
For the sake of making a prediction, it’s dog or pass on the side again, but I think the better angle is for this thing to get beyond the opening round.
Prediction: Over 1.5 Rounds
Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek
The men’s TUF final.
I think Osmanli has a pretty significant advantage in this matchup.
On the feet, it’s no contest. Osmanli is a flashy, dangerous striker, while Akylbek has legitimate chin concerns. He’s been knocked out in back-to-back fights, and a chin is one of those things that never actually improves.
Akylbek will obviously try to get this thing to the mat, but we’ve already seen what Osmanli can do against a pure wrestler.
In the semifinal against Christian Strong, Strong got the fight to the mat and was on top, only for Osmanli to finish him with an extremely rare buggy choke from the bottom.
That told me a lot.
I think Osmanli has a big future in the UFC, and I think he gets it started by putting Akylbek away.
Prediction: Mehemmedeli Osmanli by KO
Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black
How sad is it that this might be the fight I’m most looking forward to on the entire card?
This is the women’s Ultimate Fighter championship fight, and this is another line I simply do not understand.
Tina Black is the more experienced fighter and has a nice stand-up game. She’s a good striker and does good work in the clinch. I just think she has a major hole in her game when it comes to grappling and stuffing takedowns.
Melissa Amaya is the more complete fighter to me.
Amaya is a pretty good striker herself, she’s big for strawweight, and apparently you have to kill her to beat her. In her TUF semifinal against Gigi Canuto, she literally had her arm broken by an armbar, refused to give up and still found a way to win.
That’s fucking insane.
TUF finals are also no strangers to upset winners. Amaya trains with former TUF winner Juliana Miller, who we just watched pull off a really nice submission win last month.
I think this line is way too wide. After watching both semifinals, I actually thought Amaya would be favored in this matchup. I couldn’t believe it when I saw how big of a favorite Tina Black was.
I think Amaya wins this fight by grappling, controlling Tina against the cage and winning minutes on the mat.
Prediction: Melissa Amaya by Decision
Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura
Brady Hiestand is another fighter on this card coming off a serious knee injury.
During his time away, he also picked up a side quest and became a firefighter.
Rinya Nakamura is really good when he doesn’t try to convince himself that he’s a striker. He’s an excellent wrestler, and that should be the entire game plan here.
Brady couldn’t defend a takedown particularly well before ACL reconstructive surgery. What exactly is that going to look like now?
I don’t think Nakamura should have many issues here. It’s really just a matter of how he wins.
The knee injury and long layoff make me lean toward a finish, although I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if we get 15 minutes of control and dominance instead.
Prediction: Rinya Nakamura by Submission
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards
This is another doozy.
Bellato found a miracle shot in his last fight against Luke Fernandez in a fight where he was getting his ass kicked.
Christian Edwards took a very short-notice L in his UFC debut, losing a split decision to Modestas Bukauskas. But I gotta be honest, for a big guy fighting on such short notice, his cardio looked pretty damn good.
Now he gets Bellato with an actual full camp.
Bellato has terrible cardio, while Edwards has now had the opportunity to properly prepare. Those are two things that can only help Edwards in this matchup.
At the end of the day, I don’t think either of these guys is particularly good, which fits the overall theme of this card perfectly.
It’s another dog-or-pass fight because there’s absolutely no chance I’m laying a buck eighty on a guy like Bellato.
I also don’t think we necessarily get the finish everyone might expect from two light heavyweights.
Prediction: Christian Edwards by Decision
Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell
Elves Brener is a dawg.
Is he skilled? Not particularly.
But he’s exactly the type of fighter the UFC keeps around because he never disappoints from an entertainment standpoint.
Josiah Harrell looked pretty bad in his UFC debut, and maybe the Ohio Combat League just isn’t the premier feeder promotion into the UFC.
Harrell is moving down to 155 for this one, and I actually think that could work to Brener’s advantage.
Brener has been in there with some really good lightweights: Myktybek Orolbai, Joel Alvarez before he went soft, and Esteban Ribovics. He lost all three, but Harrell represents a major step down in class from those guys.
I don’t love the long layoff for Brener, although at least he got a grappling match in a couple of months ago and hasn’t been completely sitting around.
This is another clear dog-or-pass situation for me.
Prediction: Elves Brener
Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon
A rematch from 2018.
The last time these two fought, they were on a card where Mighty Mouse was fighting for the title and Cody fucking Garbrandt was fighting for the bantamweight belt.
That feels like another lifetime.
Ricky Simon had a great game plan that night: spam Montel Jackson with takedowns.
The funny part is that Montel’s takedown defense really hasn’t improved much since their first fight. If Simon understands the assignment and comes in with the same blueprint, I think he can beat him again.
Jackson is coming off a close loss to Raoni Barcelos, the man fighting in the main event of this card. Barcelos’ frying pan of a head managed to absorb Montel’s bombs early.
I’m not quite as confident that Ricky Simon can do the same.
So, once again, we have ourselves a shit show.
I guess it’s dog or pass. If Simon can weather the early Montel storm, he should be able to win plenty of minutes with his wrestling and grind out another victory over him.
Prediction: Ricky Simon by Decision
Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez
Finally, one of the few fights on this card that doesn’t make me want to gouge my eyeballs out.
I really like this spot for Ailin Perez.
Norma Dumont has looked terrible in her last couple of fights. She’s so low-volume that watching her can become unbelievably frustrating.
She’s not a bad fighter. She just spends way too much time doing absolutely nothing.
And one of the worst stylistic matchups for someone like that is a fighter like Perez, who can wrestle and grapple you, pile up control time and win minute after minute without having to worry about much offense coming back at her.
These are also two fighters heading in completely different directions.
Ailin is riding a six-fight winning streak and has won eight of her last nine. Dumont likely fumbled her opportunity to become a legitimate title contender when she lost to Joselyne Edwards last time out, a fighter Perez has already beaten.
I also think Perez has made the necessary improvements since joining the UFC and continues to get better.
I see her controlling Dumont for the first couple of rounds before Norma eventually decides in Round 3 that maybe it would be a good idea to start throwing something.
By then, it’ll be too late.
Prediction: Ailin Perez by Decision
John Castaneda vs. Alatengheili
World-class matchup here.
Not really.
It’s contract-clearing week for the UFC.
With the exception of a few fights, this entire card feels like the UFC trying to clean house and get some fighters one step closer to their walking papers.
As for this fight?
Who gives a shit?
Neither guy is particularly good, and they have pretty similar fighting styles.
I guess Castaneda is a little bit better, and he’s hung around Syndicate MMA for camp this time, which is at least an upgrade from the Minnesota Academy of whatever the fuck they call it.
That’s enough for me on a fight I have absolutely no desire to overthink.
Prediction: John Castaneda by Decision
Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas
Mickey Gall makes his return to the Octagon after a very long layoff, and waiting for him is one of the middleweight division’s finest: Sedriques Dumas.
Dumas sucks.
He might be the dumbest fighter on the UFC roster, and unfortunately for him, he doesn’t exactly make up for it with overwhelming talent.
If Gall gets this thing to the mat, I think it’s over for Dumas.
If Dumas lands some miracle shot on Gall’s chin, that could obviously change things, but I actually like Gall moving up to 185. Not having to drain himself as much should help with his durability.
I also like the camp change for Gall. At the very least, he’s trying something different to improve his preparation after being away for so long.
I think Mickey gets this thing to the mat and eventually finds dumbass’ neck.
Prediction: Mickey Gall by Submission
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui
Are we fucking serious with this matchup?
Whenever Yazmin Jauregui is a -1000 favorite in a UFC fight, we have a problem.
Jauregui is the much younger fighter and clearly has the better overall skill set, but she’s also returning from a very serious knee injury.
That matters.
Demopoulos isn’t good, and she’s also the older fighter. On paper, Jauregui should beat her.
But laying anything remotely close to this price on someone returning from that kind of injury is insanity.
This is a stinker of a fight and honestly sets the tone perfectly for what this entire card looks like on paper.
I can’t back either woman at these prices, so if I’m getting involved, I’d rather attack the under at a very nice plus-money number.
If staying away from a fight is in your blood, that’s probably the smartest route.
For some of us, it just isn’t.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Rounds
Final Thoughts
I’ve spent way too much time handicapping this card to turn back now.
The funny thing is, for a card filled with fighters I don’t trust, there are actually quite a few spots I like. Barcelos getting points feels safer than joining the entire internet on his moneyline, Amaya is a live dog in a fight where I think the wrong woman might be favored, and Ailin Perez has the exact style to make Norma Dumont spend 15 minutes staring at her while losing rounds.
Then we get into the real sicko portion of the evening. I’m trusting Christian Edwards. I’m going back to Elves Brener. I’m asking Ricky Simon to remember a game plan he used eight years ago. And, perhaps most concerning of all, I have voluntarily placed my faith in Mickey Gall in the year 2026.
These are the decisions we make.
Maybe Raul Rosas Jr. proves me wrong and Chiwiwis his way through a 39-year-old Barcelos. Maybe Sedriques Dumas suddenly develops fight IQ. Maybe John Castaneda and Alatengheili put on a Fight of the Year contender and force me to issue a public apology.
Anything is possible.
But there’s one thing I know for certain: by the time Vanessa Demopoulos and Yazmin Jauregui walk to the cage, I’ll already be sitting on my couch watching.
So much for having plans.
