UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa: The Apex Special Nobody Asked For
There are UFC cards you circle on the calendar.
There are UFC cards where you text the group chat three weeks in advance.
And then there are cards like this weekend’s.
The kind where you look at the lineup, squint a little, and wonder whether Dana White owed somebody a favor.
Welcome to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa: The Apex Special Nobody Asked For.
Now let me be clear.
This card isn’t good.
Which means it’ll somehow deliver.
Because combat sports has a funny way of working like that.
The cards everyone hypes up somehow end with a bunch of staring contests and weird scorecards, while the cards everyone trash all week suddenly turn into complete chaos.
Some random prelim guy nobody has heard of lands a spinning elbow from another planet, somebody gases out after six minutes despite looking like a Greek god at weigh-ins, and before you know it we’re all tweeting:
“Okay fine, that was way better than expected.”
Don’t get me wrong.
The main event?
Actually really solid.
After that though?
Buddy..
This thing feels like the UFC saw the giant names (albeit we are in the year 2026) on the Netflix card, Saturday night and basically said:
“Best of luck Arnold Allen.”
Half the card is short-notice replacements, regional scene survivors, or guys potentially fighting for their employment status by Monday morning.
And yet, we’ll all still be watching.
Because if you’re willingly tuning into an Apex card in 2026, congratulations.
You’re one of the sickos.
So let’s talk about it.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa
This is actually a really fun main event.
Melky Costa comes into this fight looking like one of the hotter rising names in the division after back-to-back head kick knockouts over two notoriously durable fighters.
And no, you don’t accidentally do that.
The kicks are legit.
At all levels too.
Body kicks. Calf kicks. Head kicks.
The guy is dangerous everywhere, and if Arnold Allen isn’t careful with his movement, it could become a real issue.
Because Allen circles really well defensively and has great footwork, but against a dangerous kicker, circling the wrong way can literally walk you right into something nuclear.
Just ask the last two guys Melky fought.
Allen is still the more proven guy.
He’s defensively sound, has the massive strength of schedule edge, and is coming off a close loss to Jean Silva, who I’m personally very high on.
He’s got five-round experience.
Costa doesn’t.
And that matters.
Especially because Melky has shown a tendency to fade a little late in fights, and when you factor in the absurd amount of activity and weight cuts he’s had over the last year, you have to wonder what Rounds 4 and 5 look like if this thing gets extended.
Then again, Costa has a good and dangerous guard too.
If Allen does try to wrestle, Melky is dangerous off his back. He does a really nice job setting up up kicks and leg kicks from guard and creating offense even when grounded.
This feels like one of those fights where I keep going back and forth.
Allen probably wins a lot of minutes.
Costa probably has the bigger moments.
And the more I break it down, the less conviction I have on a side and the more I think this thing probably goes all 25 minutes.
Prediction: Fight Goes the Distance
Lean: Melquizael Costa
Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos
Daniel Santos comes in riding a four-fight win streak.
Sounds impressive.
Then you actually look at who he beat.
Yeah.
Still, stylistically, this fight is a little more interesting than it looks at first glance.
Santos is actually very good at switching stances, changing looks, and throwing punches from weird angles. He’s tricky. Makes reads hard. And he does enough little things well to make fights ugly for opponents.
Then there’s Doo Ho Choi.
Still massive for the weight class.
Still has really good boxing.
Still throws nice combinations.
And honestly, one thing that stood out in his last fight against Nate The Train was the grappling looked better than I expected.
His striking also has this weird way of making opponents uncomfortable. He doesn’t overwhelm you with volume, but he finds openings and strings together really nice combinations.
Now , do I think this should be a co-main event?
Absolutely not.
This honestly feels like the UFC saw the giant Netflix combat sports card on Saturday night and basically said:
“Yeah, the main event should be able to carry this.”
Still, this feels like one of those weird, technical fights where neither guy completely opens up.
Competitive?
Sure.
Fun?
Let’s not get carried away.
Prediction: Fight Goes the Distance
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Díaz
One of the few fights on this card I’m actually excited for.
I was really high on Malcolm Wellmaker going into the loss to Ethyn Ewing.
And honestly?
That loss has aged pretty damn well.
Ewing looks like a legitimate bantamweight contender, and he took that fight against Wellmaker on just two days notice.
I also think Malcolm learned something in that loss.
Because before that, there were moments where it felt like he was trying to launch everyone’s head into low orbit with every single punch.
The power is real.
Especially that huge right hook from the southpaw stance.
He sets it up beautifully, switches stances really well, and when he lands clean, you feel it.
Juan Díaz is interesting though.
Good left hook.
Likes to work the body.
Won his UFC contract with a Round 2 buzzer-beater spinning elbow knockout and looked good doing it.
But I still have some questions about the level of competition.
His opponent looked about as UFC-ready as your buddy after three beers explaining how he’d “totally survive” in the Octagon.
I think Wellmaker shows growth here.
More variety.
More patience.
Smarter cardio management.
And a much more composed performance.
Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker by Decision
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards
Christian Edwards takes this fight on short notice.
Which feels like half the theme of this card.
Bukauskas looked rough against Nikita Krylov.
Actually, rough may be generous.
He had decent volume, but he was reckless with it. Big looping hooks, constantly leaving himself exposed, and eventually got put to sleep with three seconds left.
Honestly?
Kind of felt merciful at that point.
I really don’t want to pick Bukauskas here.
But Edwards still hasn’t shown enough for me to believe he’s UFC caliber.
Sometimes picking fights comes down to one simple question:
Who do I trust to disappoint me less?
Congratulations, Modestas.
Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas
Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj
This fight actually got more interesting the more I looked at it.
Because on paper, Timmy Cuamba may honestly be the better fighter.
Quick hands.
Good volume.
Good movement.
And importantly, he tends to get better as fights progress.
He also probably has the wrestling advantage here if he wants it.
Sopaj, meanwhile, likes to pressure forward and absolutely spam kicks at all levels.
Head kicks.
Body kicks.
Leg kicks.
He’s constantly throwing.
The issue?
His lateral movement is rough, and defensively there are holes.
But pressure styles can be annoying as hell to score against.
Especially if Cuamba lets Sopaj dictate optics and momentum.
This feels like one of those ugly scorecard fights where Cuamba may honestly win more minutes, but Sopaj steals rounds with pressure and activity.
Not my favorite fight on the card.
But one I weirdly think could be competitive.
Prediction: Bernardo Sopaj by Decision
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams
Nikolay just got the gift that keeps on giving in his last fight against the eternally chaotic Niko Price.
And now we get Khaos Williams.
The Jekyll and Hyde of the division.
Except lately?
Way more Hyde.
This isn’t striker vs grappler.
This is careless vs questionable decision-making.
Stupid vs reckless.
Pick your poison.
Khaos still has fight-ending power, but trusting him to put together a complete performance these days feels like trusting airport sushi.
You can do it.
Doesn’t mean you should.
Nikolay may not be anything special, but at least lately he’s looked like someone trying to win a fight rather than auditioning for a viral knockout compilation.
Prediction: Nikolay Veretennikov by Decision
Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan
Tuco Tokkos stinks.
Respectfully.
He survived an early storm from Junior Tafa, eventually dragging him to the mat where Junior Tafa fights generally go to die.
Meanwhile, Erslan comes in on a three-fight losing streak, but if you actually watch the fights instead of just reading Wikipedia, he’s not quite as bad as the record suggests.
Sometimes losing streaks lie.
This feels like one of those spots.
I think Erslan is the better fighter.
But honestly?
I’m way more confident this thing doesn’t see the judges than I am in trusting either side.
Heavyweights plus low-level chaos usually means violence.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Rounds
Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev
Tommy Gantt is one of Daniel Cormier’s guys.
And historically speaking, the UFC tends to do DC protégés a few favors with matchmaking.
Minev steps in on short notice, and this feels like one of those “welcome to the roster, thanks for coming” spots.
Nothing flashy.
Nothing overly complicated.
Just feels like smart matchmaking for the UFC and a very manageable debut assignment.
Wouldn’t shock me if this turns into one-way traffic.
Prediction: Tommy Gantt
Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Watching Jacqueline Cavalcanti fight is a little like watching paint dry.
But efficient paint drying.
She wins rounds.
She stays defensively sound.
And most importantly, she makes smart decisions.
Vieira is going to try to grapple, push her against the cage, ugly this fight up and bank minutes.
I’m not convinced she gets there.
Cavalcanti’s fight IQ has quietly been one of her better traits, and I think her volume wins enough moments to edge this one.
Low-key feels like one of those split decision sprinkle spots too.
Not because it’ll be amazing.
Mostly because women’s MMA judges enjoy keeping us humble.
Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision
Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski
I honestly can’t remember the last time I saw a Cody Brundage fight and didn’t immediately circle the other guy without thinking twice.
Progress?
This fight is disgusting.
No finishing upside.
Low-level.
Sloppy.
Messy.
Just two guys trying very hard to convince the UFC they deserve continued employment.
Petroski’s résumé is rough.
Brundage somehow didn’t look completely horrible in his last fight and nearly stole a decision.
He also probably has the striking edge here.
Petroski’s path feels obvious:
Takedowns.
Control time.
Steal rounds.
The issue?
Trusting either of these guys feels deeply irresponsible.
This honestly feels like one of those fights where everyone loses, including the audience.
Prediction: Fight Goes the Distance 🤢
Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari
Very low-level MMA fight.
If Bannon gets the grappling going, she has a chance.
If she decides to strike for prolonged stretches?
God bless.
Caliari has fought better competition, looks physically stronger, and feels like the fighter more likely to have the bigger moments.
Not saying this turns into a masterclass.
Let’s relax.
But I do think Caliari controls enough of the fight and lands the more meaningful shots.
Prediction: Nicolle Caliari by Decision
Polyana Viana vs. Alice Ardelean
Polyana Viana just isn’t UFC level.
I’m sorry.
We have eyes.
Ardelean originally looked like someone who wouldn’t stick around long in the UFC, but she’s improved a lot lately and seems to actually be figuring things out.
Better decision-making.
Better composure.
Better fight IQ.
Meanwhile, Viana has been finished in three straight fights.
In women’s MMA.
That almost deserves an achievement badge.
I think Ardelean wins.
And honestly?
I think she’s very live for a finish too.
Prediction: Alice Ardelean any way she wants
Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule
Keeping with the theme of low-level MMA, we close things out with Barez vs. Gurule.
Gurule has basically been an auto fade since earning his UFC contract via split decision.
Now he gets a 37-year-old kamikaze pilot in Daniel Barez.
This thing probably turns into a war of attrition and gets uglier the longer it goes.
But Barez is the more dangerous fighter.
He comes out winging bombs.
Reckless?
Absolutely.
Effective?
Sometimes.
And sometimes in these low-level fights, being the more dangerous guy matters more than being the more technical one.
Prediction: Daniel Barez by Finish
Look, I’m not going to sit here and pretend this is some elite UFC offering.
Because it’s not.
This card feels like the MMA equivalent of opening your fridge at 1 a.m., seeing leftovers you don’t really want, and eating them anyway because, well… they’re there.
But weirdly enough?
These are the cards that somehow end up overdelivering.
A couple random bangers.
A weird upset.
One bizarre finish.
Somebody screaming into the mic for a ranked opponent they absolutely should not get.
And suddenly we’re all tweeting:
“Okay fine. That was way better than expected.”
Would I clear my Saturday schedule for this?
No.
Will I still be sitting on my couch watching every second?
Unfortunately, yes.
Because if you’re willingly watching Apex cards in 2026, you’re one of the sickos.
And frankly?
So am I.
See you Saturday.
