UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Malott – Full Card Preview
Mike Malott vs Gilbert Burns
Mike Malott is a very good fighter. Gilbert Burns is aging and we’re seeing his durability fade before our eyes.
Everybody loves to talk about Malott’s loss to Magny, a fight Malott was comfortably ahead in before getting finished. But that fight was over two years ago now, and a lot has changed since then. Neil Magny is the gatekeeper of the division. We’ve seen plenty of contenders fight Magny and either get totally exposed and fraud checked, or move on and improve. I think we’ve seen the latter with Malott after that fight.
Gilbert Burns is on a 4 fight losing streak against 4 of the best contenders the division has to offer. This is definitely a step down in competition for Burns, but the concussions add up and wear on you. Michael Morales might have caused irreparable damage and I thought that might have been the end for Burns.
Aside from the durability concerns, Burns has also become a lot more hittable in recent fights, which is usually a bad sign when the chin is starting to go. He doesn’t seem to have the same cardio or power anymore either, and that matters against a guy like Malott who can grapple, strike, and wrestle. Malott has shown improved cardio too and he’s come a long way from that Magny fight.
Gilbert Burns is a legend, but the end is near for him. I think it’s Malott and I think he gets the finish against Burns in his home country.
Prediction: Malott by Finish
Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain
Dropping to bantamweight has changed the complexion of Charles Jourdain’s career and he’s really flourished since the move.
Kyler Phillips is flashy and explosive with all the spinning attacks, but he just hasn’t looked that good in quite a while. He’s fun, but he still feels like a guy who can empty the tank early if the fight doesn’t go exactly how he wants.
For Jourdain, the key is surviving round 1. If he can get through that early storm, I think the fight starts to swing hard in his favor. He needs to come out like he did against Davey Grant and apply pressure and output.
Once Phillips starts to slow down, Charles has a huge weapon waiting for him. He has an unbelievable guillotine and tired fighters have a tendency to give up their neck. This feels like one of those spots.
Prediction: Jourdain by Round 2 Submission (Guillotine)
Mandel Nallo vs Jai Herbert
Nallo is a great story. He comes in off a win on DWCS and he’s already 36 years old, so he doesn’t have a lot of time to waste here.
Jai Herbert’s greatest moment in the UFC was dropping a young Ilia Topuria 4 years ago. Well it’s not 4 years ago anymore and he didn’t even win that fight. Since 2022, he’s gotten painfully boring to watch. He spends too much time backing up, circling away, and fighting like a guy trying not to lose instead of trying to win. That’s also a bad look to the judges.
This would normally feel like one of those fights that goes the distance, but Nallo has never seen the scorecards in his 17 fight career. He’s kill or be killed and I think that style is going to find the aging chin of Jai Herbert.
Prediction: Nallo by KO
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Karine Silva
This is going to be a grapple fest and I think Jasmine is the better grappler and wrestler.
She’s very physical, knows how to lead the dance, and is excellent at banking rounds once she gets fights into her kind of pace. Silva was dominated on the ground by Maycee Barber, and although she’s gone the distance in some of her recent fights, she still has a tendency to tire and weaken.
The bottom line here is that Jasmine should be able to spam the takedown and land them at will. Silva is fine on the ground, but she can’t really stuff takedowns, and that feels like the biggest difference in the fight.
This should be a visually appealing performance to the judges, and I think Jasmine gets the job done. I wouldn’t rule out a late finish if Silva fades, but I’ll go with the scorecards.
Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision
Gauge Young vs Thiago Moises
Gauge Young is pretty good. He’s not a world beater or serious contender by any means, but he’s solid enough. The one good name on his résumé is a unanimous decision loss to legitimate contender Quillan Salkilld on DWCS.
Thiago Moises has fought a who’s who of the lightweight division, and while he’s lost almost all of those fights, his 2023 win over Melky Costa has aged very nicely. He’s the more dominant grappler here, he’s live in the submission game, and his leg kicks are something Gauge Young has never faced before.
I don’t love Thiago and I’m not super high on either guy in this one. But experience and résumé do matter in fights like this and I think Moises is the more reliable side with more ways to win.
Prediction: Thiago Moises by Decision
Dennis Buzukja vs Marcio Barbosa
Barbosa has crazy finishing power and makes things quick. This is a bad matchup for Buzukja, who just wants to bite down on his mouthpiece and walk forward.
To me, it looks like the UFC is setting Barbosa up with a win in his UFC debut against a guy who gets hit and hasn’t been seen in close to 2 years. That is a pretty dangerous setup against somebody with this kind of power.
The trouble for Barbosa would come if he can’t put Dennis away in the first round or early in the second, but I think he will. Buzukja’s style just feels like it plays right into the kind of fight Barbosa wants.
Prediction: Barbosa by Round 1 KO
Robert Valentine vs Julien LeBlanc
Another fight that lacks quality. I don’t even know where to begin.
I guess Valentine is at least exciting and somewhat tough. LeBlanc is a funky Muay Thai guy who can utilize his kicks and knees decently, but he’s not very physical or aggressive, and he’s a Canadian getting a UFC shot on this card.
This fight really screams to stay far away from.
If you read between the lines, Valentine is probably a little better than his 0-3 UFC record and could’ve had his hand raised against the can that is Torrez Finney. LeBlanc doesn’t have a quality win to his name.
Prediction: Lean Valentine
Tanner Boser vs Gokhan Saricam
I thought we’d seen the last of Boser, but here he is again. Tanner is durable and swings hard, but he’s useless on his back. He also has the strength of schedule edge in this one.
Gokhan comes in to make his UFC debut and just looks like he’ll have more ways to win this fight. He can land a timely takedown to bank a round and he’s not afraid to fight a stand up battle or get the grappling going.
I think both guys have some moments early, but I think the theme of heavyweight fights seeing the final bell continues here. Despite maybe being a little more talented, I think Boser finds his way to victory on the experience edge. And if this turns into a close greasy heavyweight decision in Canada, a little home cooking from the judges can’t hurt either.
Prediction: Boser by Decision
Melissa Croden vs Daria Zhelezniakova
This is a stylistic clash. Daria wants to keep things at range and strike, and Croden wants to use her size and physicality to bully and wear down opponents.
We saw Daria pick apart Melissa Mullins in her last fight because of Mullins’ reluctance to grapple and use her physicality. I don’t think we’ll see Croden abandon her best path to victory here.
I think Croden is physical enough to dictate things and control the fight. If Daria gets taken down, Croden is live for the finish because of Daria’s lack of a ground game. I do think Daria can survive long enough to see the judges, but the fight should still favor Croden if she fights the right fight.
Prediction: Croden by Decision
Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento
I think this one is Nascimento all day. Raposo sucks. He’s low volume and just doesn’t do anything.
Nascimento is a huge 125er and can even have a hard time making the weight, but he’s just a physical specimen when he gets in there against other flyweights. The struggle with the weight likely plays a big role in his biggest concern, which is the gas tank.
Even if he does start to slow down in round 3, I just don’t believe Raposo can do enough on the feet to hurt him or make him pay. Nascimento has shown an ability to land the takedown, eat minutes, and bank rounds when he needs to.
This is Nascimento all day and he’s live for the finish.
Prediction: Nascimento by Submission
JJ Aldrich vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
I think Jamey-Lyn has her way with Aldrich here. Aldrich may be the more technical striker and she’s solid at stuffing the takedown, but Horth comes in off probably her best performance in the UFC and she looked great on the feet.
I think she’ll be able to bully Aldrich in the clinch and against the cage and do enough to win in her home country of Canada.
Prediction: Horth by Decision
John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin
Mark Vologdin comes in off the fight of the year in DWCS in 2025, maybe the best fight of the year in general. It was a total barn burner with nonstop fireworks from the word fight. Any fan of the sport should go back and watch it.
The issue is he still lost a pretty clear unanimous decision.
I’m always wary to back a fighter who was signed based on toughness. That’s how you end up with the Jose Medinas of the world. To Vologdin’s credit, it wasn’t one way traffic. He landed close to 200 strikes over 3 rounds and had his opponent hurt.
The issue in this matchup is the grappling and wrestling. In that DWCS loss, he was taken down 3 times and controlled for almost 4 minutes. Castaneda can probably do the same thing here and he has the reach and size advantage as well.
I don’t think Vologdin is bad by any means, but he may be fighting at the wrong weight class. He may have the skills and toughness to get by a journeyman, but I think flyweight is eventually where he belongs.
Prediction: Castaneda by Decision
Jamie Siraj vs John Yannis
This is just a very low level fight to start the night. To say these guys suck may be an understatement, but we take no weeks off so here we are.
Siraj will be fighting in his home country of Canada, which if this one makes it to the judges, has historically been a big advantage for the Canadians. I think there’s a good chance we see that here.
Siraj wants to grapple, pull guard, and make it ugly. Yannis is incompetent when it comes to stuffing takedowns. I think we see the Canadian work the grappling, land takedowns, and control the fight that way. He may even find his way to Yannis’ back and threaten a finish on the mat.
I’ll hold my nose and take Siraj to win his UFC debut by decision, likely sending John Yannis to 0-2 in the UFC.
Prediction: Siraj by Decision
