It’s International Fight Week.
The UFC’s biggest week of the year deserves a card worthy of the occasion, and I’d say they delivered.
After five years away from the Octagon, Conor McGregor finally makes his return to headline UFC 329 against Max Holloway in one of the biggest fights the sport has seen in years. Whether you’re rooting for one last legendary run or hoping Max sends him right back into another five-year hiatus, this is the type of fight that gets even casual fans tuning in.
But this card is about a lot more than just Conor. We’ve got one of the toughest fights to handicap all year between Benoît Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett, a rematch seven years in the making between Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista, Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson making one of the most highly anticipated UFC debut of all time, and plenty of rising prospects looking to steal the spotlight on the sport’s biggest week.
Let’s break down every fight on the card.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway II
Main Card
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
Well, we’ve all had our calendars marked for the day Conor McGregor would finally make his return to the UFC, and now we’re just days away. McGregor vs. Holloway II. A fight that’s bigger in name value than what I think we’ll actually see inside the Octagon on Saturday.
Conor is one of the most polarizing figures in UFC history, maybe even all of sports. He’s done more to bring fans into the UFC than almost anyone, and a huge percentage of those fans are still around today. The problem? He hasn’t fought inside the Octagon in five years.
Anybody telling you Conor McGregor has a real shot in this fight is either lying to you or lying to themselves. The amount of money pouring in on McGregor isn’t just ludicrous, it’s flat out foolish.
Is Max Holloway starting to decline? Yeah, he is. But he’s been declining against UFC greats and former champions who’ve held belts a hell of a lot more recently than Conor has even stepped foot inside the Octagon.
This fight is lined similarly to how Holloway vs. Oliveira was just a few months ago. Are you seriously telling me Conor McGregor and Charles Oliveira belong in the same conversation at this stage of their careers?
C’mon, people.
Let’s get into the X’s and O’s.
I’m all for a Conor comeback, but throwing him in there with a striker as technical as Max Holloway is just unfair. He needed a Michael Chandler-type matchup. Someone with a recognizable name, someone who’d be looking to wrestle first, and someone who’s far less dangerous on the feet than Holloway.
Not that Max is some one-punch knockout artist, but he can absolutely piece up anyone willing to stand and trade with him. Conor isn’t a threat to wet blanket him for five rounds, and that’s exactly why I love Max here.
Conor is fighting the exact fight Max Holloway wants him to fight.
Even during the prime of his career, cardio was never Conor’s biggest strength. Most of the time it didn’t matter because he was so dangerous early that opponents never got the chance to expose it. But when fights dragged on, it became a massive issue.
The fact that this fight is taking place at 170 pounds is interesting. There are a few ways to interpret it, but while all these training videos on social media make it look like Conor is living in the gym, don’t be fooled.
To me, 170 feels like the easy way out for someone who no longer wants to put in the extra discipline it takes to make 155.
Ironically, I think that benefits Max more than Conor. Max’s biggest issue throughout his career has been brutal weight cuts. Taking that out of the equation only helps him.
Conor’s best, and really only, path to victory is to empty the gas tank in the first three or four minutes and hope he catches Max with something huge. Max has shown a little more vulnerability lately than he did during his prime, but asking Conor to land that one perfect shot after five years away is a massive ask.
If Conor decides to wrestle, you can probably cut that cardio in half. Wrestling has never been his bread and butter, and trying to grapple a guy like Max for extended stretches isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
I just don’t see it.
I think Conor comes out fast, has some success early, Max survives the storm, and by the end of Round 2 or early Round 3, Conor has absolutely nothing left.
Prediction: Max Holloway by TKO
Benoît Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett
This may be the best fight on the card when it comes to trying to pick a winner.
These are two tough sons of bitches who simply don’t know how to quit.
I’d call BSD the more dangerous fighter. He only knows one speed, and that’s full gas. The downside is he eventually starts to fade, and we already know Paddy has proven five-round cardio.
His loss to Justin Gaethje has actually aged like fine wine.
I also truly believe the eye pokes Paddy took in that fight, even after multiple warnings, played a much bigger role than people give them credit for.
On top of that, Paddy had about as bad a game plan as you’ll ever see. He completely abandoned his wrestling and grappling and decided to stand and bang with the savage that is Justin Gaethje.
Shockingly…
It didn’t go well.
BSD has never been in a boring UFC fight, and I don’t think he starts Saturday night.
BSD isn’t the same caliber striker that Gaethje is. He wants to wrestle, and he’ll probably get his takedowns because Paddy has never been great at stuffing them.
Ironically, I think BSD’s offensive wrestling forces Paddy into the exact fight he wants.
Paddy is a very good grappler, has excellent back takes, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him end this fight with a rear-naked choke once he gets there.
I lean Paddy as the side in this one, but I think the better bet is this fight ending by submission one way or another.
Prediction:
Fight to End by Submission
Paddy Pimblett by Submission
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
A rematch from seven years ago, where Sandhagen won by submission in Bautista’s UFC debut.
Mario has improved tremendously since that first meeting.
Cory is as solid as they come. He’s an extremely busy striker, he’s technical, and he’s one of the most awkward guys in the division to prepare for. The one thing I don’t think he is, though, is particularly dangerous. Most of his danger comes from the clinch with knees and elbows. In fact, that’s exactly what started the finish in their first fight.
I actually think Mario is the better boxer and the better wrestler here.
Cory is unorthodox and wacky with his striking, but Mario is coming off a win over another guy like that in Vinicius Oliveira. Yes, Oliveira had a rough weight cut and clearly wasn’t himself, but he’s still about as wild and unpredictable a striker as you’ll find.
Another knock I have on Cory in this matchup has nothing to do with his skills.
He just opened his own gym.
Based on everything you see on social media, that seems to be his primary focus these days. He’s teaching classes, building a business, and investing his time into other people instead of pouring every ounce of it into his own career.
Good for him.
Seriously.
It’s a noble move.
I’m just not convinced it’s the best move for his fighting career.
I like Mario Bautista here, and I think he gets it done on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Mario Bautista by Decision
Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Kavanagh is a well-deserved favorite in this fight. He showed a lot in his win over Brandon Moreno in Mexico City just a few months ago.
I think we see a very similar performance here, but here’s the biggest difference. Kavanagh doesn’t have to manage his cardio over five rounds this time around. This is only three rounds, which allows him to push a much higher pace from start to finish.
Kavanagh looks like one of the most technical and polished strikers in the flyweight division, a division currently led by Josh Van.
Ultimately, I think Brandon Royval’s biggest downfall will be his willingness to stand in the pocket and trade.
When Royval first entered the UFC, he built his reputation on his elite jiu-jitsu. Somewhere over the last few years, he’s completely abandoned what got him to the top. Now he wants to prove he’s a striker.
Against Kavanagh, that’s a mistake.
If Royval insists on making this a kickboxing match, he’s playing directly into Kavanagh’s strengths. The gap in striking is simply too wide.
I think Kavanagh cruises to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
This is one I’m sneaky excited for on an otherwise loaded card.
You have Terrance “Twrecks” McKinney, a guy who doesn’t get paid by the hour. He swings for the fences every single fight and hopes for the best. Standing across from him is King Green, one of the slickest mixed martial artists in the division, who somehow makes fighting with his hands in his pockets look normal.
King is riding a nice little win streak, and if he can weather the early storm that is Twrecks, he has a great chance to extend it.
Don’t be fooled when you hear McKinney talking about being more patient on Saturday night.
That’s bullshit.
He only knows one speed, and honestly, that’s what makes him must-watch TV every single time he steps inside the Octagon.
As for Saturday, I think King’s hands-in-his-pockets style finally catches up to him. He gets clipped early, never really recovers, and McKinney finishes the job before this fight ever has a chance to settle down.
Friend of the program gets it done.
Prediction: Terrance McKinney by 1st Round TKO
Preliminary Card
Nikita Krylov vs. Robert Whittaker
Bobby Knuckles makes his light heavyweight debut Saturday night, and I actually think this is a fantastic matchup for the move up in weight.
Whittaker was never the biggest middleweight to begin with. Against Reinier de Ridder, it looked like one of those old-school UFC fights before there were weight classes.
Krylov is also 6’3” and owns a four-inch reach advantage, but he’s nowhere near the same level of danger in the clinch that RDR was. Those brutal knees in close were ultimately Bobby’s undoing.
Krylov is slow on the feet, leaves himself wide open to counters, and his chin is questionable at best.
Actually…
Scratch that.
It’s terrible.
Whittaker still has some of the cleanest footwork and one of the best jabs in the UFC. I think his speed will be the biggest difference in this fight.
I see Bobby picking Krylov apart over three rounds before cruising to a clear-cut decision.
Prediction: Robert Whittaker by Decision
Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison
I’ll keep this one short.
Gable Steveson is viewed by many as the next generational heavyweight talent and potentially the savior of a rapidly declining heavyweight division.
He’s been taken under Jon Jones’ wing, and it seems Gable has become Jones’ number one priority.
Gable is an Olympic gold medalist, about as high an achievement as you can reach in the sport of wrestling.
He’s still young, still learning, and from the tape I’ve watched, he still looks pretty green overall.
Fortunately for him, the UFC couldn’t have hand-picked a bigger can than Elisha Ellison.
Ellison works security and has other responsibilities outside of fighting that don’t allow him to train full-time like most UFC athletes.
If you’re going to beat someone with Gable’s talent, training MMA full-time might be a good place to start.
It’s Gable by destruction.
Prediction: Gable Steveson by 1st Round Finish
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez comes in off one of the biggest judging robberies of 2026. In my opinion, and in the opinion of many others, he beat Ricky Simon pretty handily, yet somehow walked away with only a draw.
Cody Garbrandt got a gift in his last fight after being kicked in the balls on several occasions and his opponent, Long Xiao, having two points deducted in a three-round fight. Even with the deductions, I still had that fight as a draw at worst. But once again, those pesky judges saw it differently.
Here’s the bottom line for Saturday night.
Cody Garbrandt sucks now.
He’s a shell of his former self. The speed advantage that once made him so dangerous is gone. His durability has faded, and somehow his fight IQ seems to have faded right along with it.
Yanez is a dynamic, technical striker. He has great hand speed, legitimate power, a sturdy chin, and the better overall striking game at this stage of their careers.
If Cody is going to have any chance, he needs to wrestle.
Because if this stays on the feet, anything Cody can do, Yanez can do better.
We’ll stick with the tried-and-true Fade Cody strategy.
I think Yanez hurts him badly before eventually finding the finish.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by KO
Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III
I really like this matchup for Luke Riley.
Luke is the far superior technical striker and has lightning-quick hands. Kai Kamaka isn’t a bad striker by any means. He’s active, throws good kicks, and is actually a pretty underrated wrestler. The problem is, his toughness and pride tend to get in the way of him making the smartest decisions.
He’s far too willing to stand in the pocket and bang. He also has a habit of dropping his hands, and his chin can be a little questionable at times.
I think we see more of the same on Saturday.
Kai’s toughness ends up being his downfall because he’s going to stand in front of a guy who’s simply the better striker.
Luke Riley hasn’t shown much ability to stuff takedowns or work his way back to his feet once he’s put on his back. But what he lacks in the wrestling department, he more than makes up for with his striking.
I think Riley puts on a clean striking display and wins a clear-cut decision.
Prediction: Luke Riley
Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong
This is a really interesting matchup between two fighters with completely different styles.
Wang Cong is a very good kickboxer who actually owns a win over Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. Tracy Cortez, meanwhile, is a very good wrestler and grappler, but her striking leaves something to be desired. She’s active with her hands, but there’s almost no power behind them. She really just uses her striking to set up her takedowns.
Her jiu-jitsu is solid, but not in an offensive, submission-hunting kind of way. Tracy wins fights by controlling opponents, banking minutes, and weaponizing her cardio.
Tracy also changed camps for this fight, moving to Mexico City to train at altitude. I like the decision to train at altitude, but I don’t love changing camps this late, especially after the retirement of Santino DeFranco. Granted, Santino will still be in her corner Saturday night, but it’s still an adjustment.
Cong is coming off a win over Eduardo Moura, and I’ll be honest, she made that fight a little closer than I would’ve liked. She was taken down several times and pretty easily at that. She did a nice job getting back to her feet, but Tracy is much better than Moura at holding opponents down once she gets them there.
That said, there’s no question who’s the more dangerous fighter in this matchup.
It’s Wang Cong.
She has legitimate finishing ability, explosive combinations, and real power. Every second this fight stays on the feet heavily favors her. Tracy may very well win a round or two with control time, but she’s going to have to be nearly perfect every time the fight gets back to striking range.
This was one of the tougher fights on the card for me to call, but after going back through the tape, I think I was overthinking it.
Give me the better striker.
Prediction: Wang Cong
Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida was a very decorated kickboxer. He owns a win over Alex Pereira. Granted, it was 13 years ago, but that’s still a pretty nice feather in his cap.
The 38-year-old is still relatively inexperienced in MMA with only five UFC fights under his belt, and he has a glaring hole in his game.
He doesn’t handle being grappled very well.
He was controlled for over 11 minutes in his last fight against Cezary Oleksiejczuk.
Pinas also likes to stand in the pocket and throw down, but he does it with an impressive level of explosiveness. He hits like a truck, he’s an elite athlete, and the upside is obvious.
This feels like the UFC trying to build up a potential new star, and what better way to do that than by feeding him an older, slower version of the type of fighter they hope he becomes?
Pinas is far from a finished product, but the tools are absolutely there.
I think he gets the stoppage.
And I think he gets it early.
Prediction: Damian Pinas by KO
Farid Basharat vs. John Garza
John Garza steps in on short notice to replace Ethyn Ewing. That’s a real bummer because Ewing is one of the more exciting prospects in the bantamweight division.
Basharat enters this one undefeated and is one of the more well-rounded fighters on the roster.
I don’t know a ton about John Garza, but I do know he’s explosive, aggressive, and always looking to make something happen. That said, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired, and that could play directly into Basharat’s strengths.
This is also the final fight on Basharat’s current UFC contract.
I think we see the best version of him because he’s fighting for his next payday.
That new contract isn’t going to come by wrestle-fucking inferior opponents.
Like any athlete in a contract year, he’s got a lot at stake.
I think Basharat pushes the pace a little more than we’re used to seeing. I still think he ultimately wins a decision, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hunted for a finish a little harder than usual.
Prediction: Farid Basharat by Decision
Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese
The fight between Zachary Reese and Michel Pereira last time out was a brutal display of MMA.
As boring and low-level as it was, I actually thought Reese did enough to win, but apparently two of the three judges disagreed.
For Gandra, the path to victory is simple.
Find the knockout early.
Reese has shown he can be hurt, and his chin still leaves plenty of question marks.
Reese is the better grappler, but I don’t know if I trust him to survive Gandra’s early power.
If this fight stays standing in the opening minutes, I think Gandra lands something big and puts Reese away.
Prediction: Ryan Gandra by KO
Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden
Yeah, I know.
Cody Durden won his last fight.
He still sucks.
Alessandro Costa steps in on short notice after Ode Osbourne pulled out for whatever reason he came up with, and he comes into this fight riding a nice little knockout streak.
Durden drops back down to flyweight and faces a much higher-level striker than Filho. Yes, Costa has a knockout loss to Coria, who also took that fight on short notice, but Cody simply doesn’t present the same level of danger that Coria does.
Costa isn’t some unstoppable killer, but he’s more than good enough here.
I’ll stick with what works.
No need to reinvent the wheel.
Fade Cody.
Prediction: Alessandro Costa by Decision
International Fight Week has a way of creating moments we’ll be talking about long after the final horn sounds.
Some careers take off. Others come crashing back to earth.
By the end of Saturday night, somebody’s hype train will be flying down the tracks, somebody’s championship hopes will be very real, and somebody’s fanbase will be working overtime on social media trying to explain away what just happened.
That’s the beauty of this sport.
Enjoy the fights, enjoy the chaos, and thanks for reading Mentally on IR.
