Set your alarms. Or don’t.
This card has all the ingredients of a Saturday morning Fight Night. A top heavy main card, a bunch of names you’ve never heard of, and enough regional tape to make you question whether half these fights actually happened.
That usually means one of two things. Either we’re in for six hours of absolute misery, or the card completely overdelivers and everyone pretends they knew these prospects were future contenders all along.
Let’s hope it’s the second one. If not, at least we’ll get to laugh at the heavyweight division for a couple of hours. Let’s get into it.
Absolutely. Here’s your copy with only those small edits made. I didn’t change your analysis, jokes, or overall voice.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov steps in here on short notice to face Ank. I’m not the biggest Ankalaev fan in the world, because he isn’t the most personable or exciting fighter the UFC has to offer, but his pure MMA skills and well-rounded game are hard to deny. He’s shown he has the cardio and ability to go five rounds with the best the division has to offer. At this point, with Alex Pereira moving up to heavyweight and Carlos Ulberg expected to be sidelined with a serious knee injury, Magomed Ankalaev may very well be the best light heavyweight in the world.
Now, we were fed excuse after excuse following his loss to Alex Pereira about how he went into that fight injured and sick. Was it true? Who knows. But we heard similar excuses from Poatan’s camp after he lost the first fight with Ankalaev, and I think the rematch proved there may have actually been some truth behind both sides. The difference in body language from fight one to fight two was impossible to ignore.
Bogdan Guskov isn’t nearly as well rounded. He likes to sit heavy on his back foot and throw absolute bombs. He was originally scheduled for a rematch with Jan Blachowicz next week. In their first fight, it took two judges scoring Round 2 a 10-8 just for Guskov to escape with a draw.
I respect Guskov’s power and the danger he presents, but Ankalaev is simply on another level from an overall MMA standpoint. I think we see him put on a clinic over five rounds on Saturday and remind everyone why he’s currently the best light heavyweight in the world.
Prediction:
Magomed Ankalaev by Decision
Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov
Erceg wheels back quickly for this one while Temirov returns from a PED suspension.
Erceg is coming off a convincing decision win over Tim Elliott. Elliott was one of the trendy underdogs that week and took money from just about everybody. Erceg may not be the flashiest or most popular guy in the flyweight division, but the résumé speaks for itself. After coming up short against Alexandre Pantoja in his title fight back in 2024, he dropped two more against Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno before getting himself back on track with consecutive wins.
While Erceg is the more technical striker, Temirov is the more explosive and dynamic athlete. He throws with serious power and speed early, but I think that’s where this fight changes. Erceg is the cleaner boxer, manages distance better, and has proven he can keep a steady pace for all three rounds. I think this fight comes down to survival. If Steve Erceg can survive the early storm, he’s live to pull off the win. I think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but I’m pretty confident we see this one hear the final horn.
Prediction:
Fight Goes the Distance / Over 2.5 Rounds
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman
The corpse of Wellington Turman has been dug up and reincarnated to serve as a sacrificial lamb for Islam Dulatov.
We haven’t seen Turman in nearly three years, and after Dulatov gets through with him on Saturday, we may never see him again.
Dulatov has a vicious stand-up game. He mixes things up beautifully with knees, kicks, elbows, and combinations, and he carries legitimate finishing power. We haven’t seen much of his grappling yet, but I don’t think it’s going to matter here. Turman has always been hittable, and after such a long layoff, asking him to survive against someone this dangerous feels like a brutal assignment.
I think it’s Dulatov, and I think it’s Dulatov early.
Prediction:
Islam Dulatov by 1st Round KO
Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki
Damian “The Butcher” Rzepecki makes his UFC debut against one of last year’s most anticipated DWCS graduates, John Pork Zaynukov.
“The Butcher,” from what I’ve gathered watching tape on the regional scene, is a capable striker, but he doesn’t really put together the extended combinations or output you’d like to see from someone who relies so heavily on his striking.
That’s the biggest difference in this matchup. Volume.
We saw John Pork put on an absolute volume clinic in the fight that earned him his UFC contract. He got caught once, recovered well, and immediately went right back to work. He’s another product of the Khabib and Islam pipeline, so he can seamlessly mix in wrestling alongside that high paced striking attack.
I think John Pork Zaynukov is a legitimate prospect worth keeping an eye on, and I think he gets a finish Saturday night.
Prediction:
Magomed Zaynukov by KO
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune
A couple of ranked heavyweights square off here. If that doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about the current state of the heavyweight division, I don’t know what does.
Both guys come in off absolute snooze fest wins that perfectly define heavyweight MMA these days. Lots of leaning. Lots of inactivity. Plenty of time to scroll Twitter without missing anything important.
Kuniev lost his UFC debut to Curtis Blaydes, a Blaydes who was basically fighting on one knee, mind you. Because of that injury, Blaydes struggled to complete takedowns. Then in Kuniev’s last fight against Jailton Almeida, Almeida seemingly refused to throw a punch all night, which somehow resulted in Kuniev getting the win. That fight pretty much sent Almeida to the shadow realm and, I guess, put Kuniev back on track.
Even Almeida struggled to consistently take Kuniev down. If Tyrell Fortune can’t either, he might as well make other plans for Saturday night.
Fortune relies almost entirely on his wrestling. He picked up his first UFC win over Father Time himself, Marcin Tybura. Fortune isn’t exactly a young prospect either. At 36 years old, if this were almost any other division, he’d probably be teaching P.E. somewhere.
I just don’t think Fortune is good enough to control Kuniev the way he controlled Tybura. That’s a problem because I don’t trust his striking nearly enough to make up the difference.
I don’t see either guy getting finished. I see a lot of fat guys leaning against the fence, failed takedown attempts, and a whole lot of staring. I lean Kuniev, but I think this one comfortably hears the final horn.
Prediction:
Over 1.5 Rounds / Rizvan Kuniev by Decision
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
Abubakar Vagaev makes his UFC debut as a member of Khamzat Chimaev’s training team.
He’s actually a pretty dynamic striker who throws a variety of kicks, spinning attacks, and different looks. Being part of Chimaev’s camp, you’d expect him to have quality wrestling too, and he absolutely does.
He hasn’t fought in nearly a year and a half, but the last time we saw him, he went the full five rounds and earned a unanimous decision victory. That’s something I always like to see because it proves the cardio is there if this fight gets extended.
Saygid comes in off a split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his UFC debut last fall. That fight came after nearly a three year layoff, and it showed. Saygid looked excellent early, controlled large portions of the first half of the fight, and then completely hit a wall. Dalby took over late and stole enough rounds to edge out the decision.
I had no issue with Dalby getting the nod, but had it gone the other way, I probably wouldn’t have complained either.
I think cardio is the deciding factor here. Vagaev has proven he can maintain his pace over five rounds, while we’ve already seen Saygid fade badly. I think Vagaev has the bigger moments on the feet, mixes in timely takedowns, and banks enough rounds to earn the decision.
Prediction:
Abubakar Vagaev by Decision
Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen
An interesting fight for the Middle East. The Brazilian against the American.
Valter Walker comes in off a seriously impressive streak of four consecutive victories by heel hook. Thomas Petersen is an American wrestler. He comes in off a pretty unimpressive win against a total can of a Brazilian “striker” who just doesn’t like to throw punches and completely lacks any sort of killer instinct.
Walker is the bigger fighter, he’s got much improved cardio, and we know he’s nasty with his submissions. Petersen doesn’t exactly believe in striking defense. We see him basically call his own timeout where he’ll just go completely mute and not throw, block, or return any meaningful offense. Against a guy like Walker, you’re asking for disaster.
I think Walker wins, and he’s extremely live to keep that heel hook streak alive.
Prediction:
Valter Walker by Submission
Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said
Muhammad Said makes his UFC debut, and I have to assume he’s a total fraud. It’s very hard to find any kind of tape on him, and you don’t end up in the witness protection program if you’re backed by a series of highlight finishes.
While he does come in undefeated, you have to seriously question the strength of schedule. Dustin Jacoby is a legitimate UFC veteran. He’s lost the fights he was supposed to lose, he’s beat the shit out of the guys he was supposed to beat, and he comes in on a three fight finish streak as well.
Said may be dangerous early fighting on adrenaline, but I think Jacoby survives that early storm and really puts a beating on Said here.
Prediction:
Dustin Jacoby by KO
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson
I’ll keep this one short and sweet.
Draw a line through Sam Patterson’s last fight with his longtime training partner Michael Page. Those two danced for three rounds. You could count the significant strikes on one hand, and it was exactly what I predicted that night, a paid sparring session.
Sam Patterson is a dangerous man in the Octagon. He follows the Terrance McKinney school of MMA and knows he doesn’t get paid by the hour. He wants a firefight, and I think he’s out to redeem himself after that snooze fest with Page.
Ponzinibbio, on the other hand, is 40 years old and wants zero part of a firefight, mainly because he just can’t handle that kind of fight anymore. I think Patterson blitzes the old man, and we’re out of there very early.
Prediction:
Sam Patterson Round 1 Finish
Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola
This is an interesting fight. I think Axel Sola is back real quick after that dogfight with Mason Jones just a few months ago. Sola doesn’t wear damage well at all, and despite the forward pressure that Bonfim has struggled with, it’s not this level of pressure that’s given him problems.
Chris Padilla, Nazim Sadykhov, and Benoit Saint Denis make up Bonfim’s three most recent losses, and those are all guys that I rank well above Axel Sola from a pressure, danger, and overall skill standpoint. Bonfim was also beating Sadykhov until one shot caused the doctor to step in and wave it off.
I think Axel Sola is a pretty sizable step down here for Bonfim.
Fun fact. Ismael Bonfim is also a unicorn. He’s one of the few people to fight Terrance McKinney and actually make it out of the first round.
I’ll take the more skilled fighter, getting class relief as an underdog.
Prediction:
Ismael Bonfim
Magomed Tuchalov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
I’ll keep this one short and sweet as well.
Brendson Ribeiro doesn’t belong in the UFC anymore. His chin is gone, and it isn’t coming back.
This is the UFC trying to build up a star from the Middle East in Tuchalov, who is a serious threat and a very dangerous striker. I think Tuchalov gets him out of there quickly.
Prediction:
Magomed Tuchalov by KO (Rounds 1-2)
Nurullo Aliev vs. Mike Davis
Mike Davis returns to the Middle East after Fume Gate last time. And as ridiculous as that excuse may sound, Mike Davis genuinely looked like he was high off his ass in that fight. Accepting guard and just really not looking himself, with no gas tank whatsoever.
Aliev comes in off a win against that bum Shem Rock, who was already sent packing to the PFL. I put no stock in that win, and to make matters worse, allegedly Shem was dealing with a pretty significant knee injury throughout camp and during the fight. Whether you believe that nonsense or not, Aliev didn’t look like a world beater.
Both résumés leave a lot to be desired, and I don’t think we see a finish in this one. I lean Mike Davis as a dog, and I think it’s telling that he returns to the Middle East after the shenanigans of Fume Gate.
Prediction:
Over 2.5 Rounds
Mike Davis by Decision
Cody Gibson vs. Abdul Hussein
I think we have a fourth Cody to add to the Cody fading superfecta.
Cody Gibson has just hit a wall in his career, and he’s not what he used to be. Additionally, Abdul Hussein is legit. His last loss came in 2021 when he lost a razor thin decision to Muhammad Mokaev, who I believe is one of, if not the best flyweights in the world.
Abdul is dangerous, and I don’t think this one goes the distance.
Prediction:
Abdul Hussein by KO
It’s definitely not the sexiest card the UFC has put together this year, but those are usually the ones that end up producing the biggest surprises. There are plenty of debuting prospects looking to make a statement, a few veterans fighting to keep their jobs, and more than enough opportunities for a handful of these names to leave Saturday looking like legitimate contenders.
Hopefully we survive the heavyweight fights, John Pork lives up to the hype, and by the end of the afternoon we’ve got a few new names to keep an eye on going forward.
Enjoy the fights, and I’ll catch you all next week.
