UFC Fight Night 280: Fiziev vs. Torres Preview & Predictions
Set your alarms, we have ourselves a Saturday morning UFC card.
The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this weekend for UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres. On paper, this isn’t the deepest card we’ve seen lately, but there are still plenty of interesting storylines throughout. We get the return of hometown hero Rafael Fiziev, Shara “Bullet” Magomedov looking to put on another show, and several prospects with a chance to make a name for themselves.
There are a few fights I think the betting market has completely wrong, some fighters getting enormous class relief, and a handful of locals who will have the crowd behind them every step of the way. Whether that’s enough to cash tickets or just create some memorable moments, we’ll find out soon enough.
Let’s break down every fight on the card.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres
Clash of two very different types of strikers. Fiziev is incredibly technical, while Torres swings for the fences every time he steps into the cage.
Vegas sees this fight as a coin flip, but I don’t. Torres is dangerous and has legitimate knockout power, but Fiziev is simply the better and more accomplished fighter, and he’s getting enormous class relief here. This isn’t the champion, Justin Gaethje, or fast-rising sniper Mauricio Ruffy standing across from him. Torres is no slouch, but he’s the definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter, only hearing the judges’ scorecards once in his 20-fight professional career.
Stylistically, I hate that matchup for someone facing a counter striker as dangerous as Fiziev.
I also think Fiziev will be able to change things up and throw off Torres’ timing by mixing in his wrestling. Torres fought a pure wrestler in Grant Dawson his last time out, but as we found out after the fight, Dawson was coming off neck surgery. A wrestler coming off neck surgery? You might as well have thrown me in there against Torres that night.
Dawson doesn’t have the striking to fall back on when his wrestling isn’t at 100 percent. Fiziev does.
The biggest thing Fiziev needs to be aware of is the range. Torres is huge for lightweight and does his best work when opponents stay in the pocket too long. If Fiziev manages the distance, picks his shots, and forces Torres to overextend, I think he’ll make him pay.
This is also a five-round fight. Not that I necessarily expect it to go 25 minutes, but if Torres comes out guns blazing like he usually does and can’t put Fiziev away early, he’s completely fucked. Fiziev has championship-level cardio experience, five-round experience, and another huge advantage that can’t be ignored.
Home-field advantage.
This fight is in Fiziev’s native Azerbaijan.
Prediction:
Rafael Fiziev
Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira
Michel Pereira is quickly fading away.
He’s shown a lack of desire to be in the Octagon over his last few fights, and I think the biggest reason is that he’s lost his flair. The backflip knees, the spinning attacks, the crazy creativity that made him must-watch TV, we just don’t see it anymore.
His last fight against Zach Reese honestly set this sport back ten years with how boring it was. Yes, the two were former training partners and knew each other well, but there were too many moments where Pereira had that look in his eye and that body language of wanting out.
You can’t fight like that. Hell, you shouldn’t have that mentality in any professional sport, but especially not fighting. This isn’t baseball or basketball. There’s another guy standing across from you trying to knock your head into the third row.
Unfortunately for Michel, that other guy is Shara Magomedov.
We’ve all seen Sean Strickland joking around in the gym trying to mimic Shara’s spinning attacks and flashy kicking game. The problem is, you can’t really mimic Shara’s speed, timing, creativity, or explosiveness. His offense comes from angles most people simply don’t see.
And Michel doesn’t have that same spark anymore to match it.
I really struggle to find a path to victory for Pereira here. If this turns into a technical kickboxing match, Shara is cleaner. If it turns into chaos, Shara thrives there too.
I think he eventually finds Pereira’s questionable chin with something spectacular.
A spinning elbow sounds about right.
Prediction:
Shara Magomedov by KO
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo
Camilo is a very technical striker. There’s not a ton of flash or flair to his game, but he’s fundamentally sound on the feet. Wrestling isn’t really his strength, although he’s still young enough to improve.
Training out of Xtreme Couture is always a positive. Those guys consistently make adjustments, fix weaknesses, and seem to come back better after every setback.
Standing across from him is Serra-Long product Nazim Sadykhov.
Nazim is patient. At times maybe too patient, but more often than not it works in his favor. Against Fares Ziam, though, I thought he let a very winnable fight slip away because he simply waited too long to get going.
One thing you can never question with Nazim is his toughness.
He loses moments in fights, but he never checks out mentally or physically. Serra-Long fighters always seem to make the right adjustments as fights progress, and Nazim fits that mold perfectly.
Experience and toughness are the biggest advantages in this matchup.
After the Ziam loss, I expect to see a more active version of Sadykhov, and I think that’ll be enough to edge Camilo.
Prediction:
Nazim Sadykhov
Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson…
Back for more.
The problem is, which Charles Johnson are we getting?
The guy who looks like he belongs in title contention one night? Or the guy who comes out looking like a deer in the headlights the next?
With Asu Almabayev, you know exactly what you’re getting.
He’s an outstanding wrestler with dangerous submissions and some of the best chain wrestling in the flyweight division. His striking isn’t flashy, but it’s effective because everything he throws is designed to set up his takedowns. He’ll even throw head kicks just to get opponents thinking before changing levels.
Johnson’s biggest weapon is his speed, but Asu has the speed to match him.
The difference is consistency.
Asu’s wrestling is the most reliable weapon either fighter brings into this matchup. Charles is capable of looking phenomenal one fight and completely lost the next, and that’s just too difficult to trust when you’re trying to pick winners.
I think Asu controls enough of the grappling exchanges to bank rounds.
Prediction:
Asu Almabayev by Decision
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira
Brunno didn’t last very long against RoboCop in their rematch, which was the complete opposite of what happened the first time those two fought.
Brunno has some of the weirdest movements and feints you’ll ever see. Honestly, you’d think it’d take someone with the IQ of a house plant to bite on half of it… yet somehow it worked the first time against RoboCop.
I’ll be honest.
I think Brunno is terrible.
Ikram trains alongside Khabib and company, and he’s coming off a fight against another pressure fighter in JunYong Park where we saw his wrestling completely take over.
On the feet, Ikram isn’t the most versatile striker in the world. He’ll spam the same jab and the same kicks over and over.
The difference is that his wrestling makes everything else work.
Brunno is going to march forward and try to blitz him like he always does, but I think Ikram will find the openings for takedowns and spend most of the fight controlling things on the mat.
Brunno’s takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired. His go-to reaction is grabbing at guillotines that rarely materialize, and he often ends up flat on his back with his opponent in dominant position.
We saw it before, and I think we’ll see it again.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Ikram found a submission, but a dominant decision feels like the more likely outcome.
Prediction:
Ikram Aliskerov by Decision
Abus Magomedov vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
A battle between two guys who generally don’t get paid by the hour.
Abus was supposed to be the next big thing at middleweight. He won his UFC debut in just 19 seconds before getting thrown straight into the fire against current champion Sean Strickland. To his credit, Abus had an excellent first round before completely gassing out and getting stopped.
From there, reality started to set in.
He lost to Caio Borralho, picked up a few wins over lower-level competition, and then got submitted by Joe Pyfer his last time out.
At this stage of his career, I think we know exactly what Abus is.
He’s a fringe Top 15 middleweight who can beat the lower tier of the division, but struggles whenever the competition takes a step up. Part of that is physical, but I also think part of it is mental. When things start going sideways, he looks like a different fighter.
Meanwhile, Michał Oleksiejczuk looks like he’s found new life since joining the Fighting Nerds.
He’s no longer just a guy winging haymakers and hoping somebody falls over. He’s become much more disciplined, puts combinations together better, and actually seems to have a game plan every time he walks into the cage.
I fully expect Abus to wrestle early because standing and trading with Michał for 15 minutes feels like a terrible idea.
The question is whether he can keep that pace.
If Michał survives the early grappling exchanges, I think the momentum shifts heavily in his favor as Abus starts to slow down.
I lean toward Michał Oleksiejczuk getting his hand raised.
More than anything, though…
I think this one ends before the judges are needed.
Prediction:
Fight Does NOT Go the Distance
Preliminary Card
Farman Hasanov vs. Eric Nolan
Talk about two misleading records.
Eric Nolan comes in at 8-4, but a couple of those losses have aged pretty well. He dropped his UFC debut to highly touted prospect Baisangur Susurkaev, and he also lost a split decision to Ty Miller, another prospect who has looked every bit the part since making it to the UFC.
Hasanov, meanwhile, is the local prospect making his UFC debut.
He’s 3-0 in LFA, which is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s also worth mentioning that the level of competition wasn’t exactly murderer’s row. His average betting line across those three LFA fights was around -1200. That’s not his fault. He beat everyone the UFC put in front of him, but it’s something to keep in mind before penciling him in as the next big thing.
Training out of American Top Team certainly doesn’t hurt.
Hasanov has legitimate power and can absolutely crack, but I think Nolan is the cleaner, more technical striker. If this fight stays standing, I actually give Nolan the edge.
If it hits the mat?
Different story.
Hasanov is a very dangerous grappler and has the ability to find a finish quickly.
Making your UFC debut in front of your home crowd isn’t always easy, but I think Hasanov will feed off the energy, dictate where this fight takes place, and eventually find the finish.
Prediction:
Hasanov by Finish
Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
Walker sucks.
Abdul looks like the real deal.
He’s dangerous everywhere, has already shown he can fight five rounds if necessary, and his cardio doesn’t appear to be an issue. Not that I think we’ll need to find out here.
Walker would have to survive the early storm first.
I don’t think he does.
I’ll keep this one simple.
Ground-and-pound destruction.
Prediction:
Yakhyaev by Finish, Round 1
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Ruziboev likes to work quickly.
If he can’t get you out of there within the first few minutes, things tend to get sloppy. His pace slows, his technique starts fading, and suddenly a fight that looked over becomes very competitive.
Pulyaev famously survived all 15 minutes with Ateba Gautier.
He lost, but he never got finished.
That matters here because surviving the opening blitz is probably the hardest part of fighting Ruziboev.
If Pulyaev gets through those first few minutes, he’s very live to steal the fight late.
Not a confident lean by any means.
Dog or pass.
Prediction:
Andrey Pulyaev by Split Decision
Kaan Ofli vs. Javier Reyes
Kaan Ofli sucks.
I thought Yizha beat the brakes off him in his last fight, yet somehow Ofli still got his hand raised.
Go figure.
He’s a wrestler with solid cardio, but that only takes you so far.
Javier Reyes can match his pace, but he’s much more dangerous offensively. He’s the cleaner striker, throws with more power, and I think he’s a really awkward stylistic matchup for Ofli.
Reyes isn’t some future world champion.
He’s just better.
Sometimes it really is that simple.
Prediction:
Javier Reyes
Daniil Donchenko vs. Theodor Berggren
Originally, Donchenko was supposed to fight Andreas Gustafsson before Gustafsson had to withdraw because of a heart issue.
Hopefully everything turns out okay there.
Instead, in steps Theodor Berggren.
This should be a fun one.
Two young strikers who aren’t exactly afraid to let their hands go.
Donchenko has shown flaws throughout his young career, but he’s also shown something equally important.
He’s willing to learn.
Each time we’ve seen him, he’s made adjustments and cleaned up mistakes from previous performances.
The betting line tells the story here.
This feels like Donchenko’s fight to lose.
Prediction:
Daniil Donchenko by KO
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto
Jean Matsumoto is 17-2.
His only two losses have both come by split decision, meaning he could very realistically be sitting here undefeated.
Bekzat enters this one coming off what I thought was a pretty gutless loss to Aleks Topuria.
He actually looked good early.
Then he started eating some clean shots and it felt like he packed up his things and mentally checked out.
I think Matsumoto is going to lean heavily on his wrestling here.
Takedown after takedown.
Round after round.
Eventually, Bekzat slows down, and Jean cruises to another decision.
This one may actually end up being more comfortable than some of Matsumoto’s recent wins.
Prediction:
Jean Matsumoto by Decision
Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento
Tahir is another local fighter looking to make the home crowd happy.
He’s undersized, but dangerous whenever he actually lets his hands go.
The issue is that he has a tendency to be overly cautious, which leads to stretches where his output completely disappears.
He’s riding a four-fight winning streak, all by finish, including three straight submissions.
That’s impressive.
I do question the level of competition, though.
Jefferson Nascimento makes his UFC debut here, moving up from lightweight to welterweight.
That’s the biggest red flag for me.
Could this simply be the UFC doing the hometown fighter a favor by finding him an opponent?
Maybe.
Jefferson is the cleaner striker, but when he gets taken down, he’s often too comfortable working off his back instead of fighting to get back to his feet.
Against a submission-minded fighter moving up a weight class, that’s a dangerous game.
The other concern is the turnaround.
Jefferson is coming back in less than a month after a fight where he had to work hard and absorbed a decent amount of damage.
Those things add up.
For those reasons, I’ll side with the hometown fighter.
Prediction:
Tahir Abdullayev
I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll be wrong again. That’s the beauty of this sport. All it takes is one punch, one bad decision, or one perfectly timed submission to make everything we thought we knew completely irrelevant.
That’s why MMA is still one of the best sport in the world.
Not every UFC card needs to be stacked with title fights and household names to be worth watching. Some of the best Fight Nights are the ones nobody talks about beforehand, and this card has a chance to be one of them.
There are veterans looking to prove they still belong, prospects trying to announce themselves, hometown fighters feeding off the energy of the Baku crowd, and a few matchups that could have a much bigger impact on their divisions than people realize.
Whether my reads end up looking brilliant or completely blowing up in my face, that’s why we watch.
Enjoy the fights.
