The UFC has put on events in just about every venue imaginable.
Sold-out arenas.
Football stadiums.
Fight Island.
The Sphere.
And now, the South Lawn of the White House.
If that sounds ridiculous, that’s because it is.
But if you’re going to put on a card at the White House, you’d better make it feel like a big deal. To the UFC’s credit, they did exactly that.
We’ve got legends trying to hold onto relevance, rising stars looking to break through, former champions trying to reclaim glory, and one man attempting to become the UFC’s first-ever three-division champion.
This card isn’t perfect. No card ever is.
But from top to bottom, it’s loaded with recognizable names, compelling storylines, and fights that should deliver violence.
Let’s get into it.
UFC FREEDOM 250: Preview, From The White House-
The card we’ve all been waiting for is just days away.
Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes
These are two guys with very different career trajectories. Diego Lopes is coming off his second title fight against Alexander Volkanovski, another decisive unanimous decision loss to the champ. His days of getting title shots may be over, at least for as long as Volk is holding the belt. So what does he have to fight for? Is the motivation still there knowing that he’s likely done getting title shots for the foreseeable future?
Steve Garcia comes in with all the motivation in the world. He’s been on a sensational run, racking up knockout after knockout, and may very well be one good win away from getting the next title shot after Movsar Evloev. If not, he’s certainly one win away from a fight for the number one contender spot. As far as motivation goes, I think it’s a major advantage for Garcia.
Now let’s talk resumes. The bigger names obviously belong to Diego Lopes. He’s fought and lost to Volkanovski twice. He lost to Movsar Evloev. So what’s his signature win? Jean Silva. A fight where the tides turned drastically before Jean Silva tried to Jean Silva, leaving himself open to an elbow that changed everything. Anybody who knows anything about this great sport also knows who the better fighter was in the octagon that night, and it wasn’t Diego Lopes.
We’ve seen Lopes fade over the course of fights before, but with this being a three-round fight and the stylistic matchup we’re getting, I don’t think the gas tank becomes a major factor. Lopes has long been praised for his dangerous ground game, but when was the last time that was a meaningful factor in one of his wins? He’s turned himself into a striker, and Steve Garcia is not somebody you want to get into a striking fight with.
Garcia is big, awkward, and dangerous. He’s scored knockout wins in six of his last seven fights. Sure, maybe the level of competition hasn’t been as high as what Lopes has faced, and maybe nobody on that list is as durable as Lopes has proven to be, but we’ve seen too many examples of Lopes looking uncomfortable when he’s facing somebody willing to come forward with pressure and volume.
In his last fight against Volkanovski, he was incredibly low volume and hesitant to throw. Knowing that his clearest path to victory was hurting Volk and potentially knocking him out, the fact that he was so gun-shy has to be a concern.
Lopes’ best path to victory here is probably to grapple and lean on offensive wrestling, but he simply hasn’t shown that side of his game in quite some time. The other problem is Garcia isn’t just a pressure striker. He also presents the threat of a takedown, which forces opponents to think about more than just the punches coming their way. That added layer of versatility only makes Garcia’s pressure more difficult to deal with. Lopes can’t simply plant his feet and look for counters when Garcia can change levels and mix in wrestling whenever he wants.
The common thread in a lot of Lopes’ struggles has been opponents who force him backwards and make him uncomfortable. That’s exactly what Steve Garcia does.
I’m pretty high on Garcia in this matchup. If he can stay safe from the inevitable Lopes counters, I think he can overwhelm him with pressure and power, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets him out of there within two rounds.
Prediction:
Steve Garcia
Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus
This is the fight on the card that may be impacted most by the elements of this event taking place outdoors. Whether it’s the chance of rain, the East Coast summer humidity, or simply the heat itself, these conditions could create problems for a fighter whose entire game is built around controlling and holding onto opponents.
Yeah, I know. Nickal is coming off a knockout win over Rodolfo Vieira. Are we supposed to be impressed by that? A knockout over a guy who’s openly admitted he wouldn’t be fighting if it weren’t for the paycheck? Bo Nickal’s striking is still atrocious.
So what has Bo Nickal really accomplished in the UFC?
He beat Cody Brundage. Everyone beats Cody Brundage.
He beat Paul Craig during a stretch where Craig was losing to just about everybody put in front of him.
And in between those wins, he got repeatedly kneed in the face by Reinier de Ridder until the referee finally stepped in and saved him.
Kyle Daukaus is far from a great fighter in his own right, but since returning to the UFC for his second stint, we’ve seen less than two minutes of total cage time and two knockout victories. Sure, one came against Gerald Meerschaert, who may have one of the worst chins on the entire roster. And yes, Michel Pereira has a long history of looking for the exit door the second things get uncomfortable. But this line is simply too wide.
Now let’s go back to the outdoor factor because I think it matters here more than almost any fight on the card. Wrestlers want control. They want to get their hands locked, press opponents against the fence, secure body locks, finish takedowns, and maintain top position. All of those things become more difficult when both fighters are drenched in sweat or dealing with moisture from the elements.
A slippery opponent is harder to grab ahold of, harder to drag to the mat, harder to keep pinned against the cage, and harder to control once the fight hits the ground. If you’ve ever watched high-level grappling after both competitors are soaked with sweat, you know how quickly dominant positions can disappear.
That’s especially important when talking about Bo Nickal because wrestling is still his A-game. If conditions make it even 10% harder for him to secure takedowns and maintain control, that’s a significant factor. Meanwhile, Daukaus is the kind of fighter who only needs a small opening. A failed shot, a scramble, a neck left exposed for half a second, and suddenly you’re defending a choke.
Especially if Bo Nickal decides to do that thing elite wrestlers love doing lately, where they spend an entire fight trying to prove they can strike.
Even if Nickal comes in with the smart game plan and wrestles, there are still concerns. Daukaus is dangerous in scrambles, and if he’s able to stuff a few takedowns, his front choke game becomes a very real threat. That’s not a position Nickal wants to spend extended periods of time in.
The more tape I watch on Bo Nickal, the more holes I find in his game. He looks like a different fighter every time out, and not always for the better. It’s difficult to trust him because it’s impossible to know which version of Bo Nickal is going to show up on fight night.
At the current number, it’s dog or pass for me.
For the sake of making a prediction, I’ll take Kyle Daukaus to pull off a second consecutive upset and start this card with absolute chaos.
Prediction:
Kyle Daukaus
Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
Michael Chandler. Somehow, still in the UFC.
What was left of his post-legendary Bellator career was largely wasted chasing Conor McGregor around like a toxic college ex that couldn’t take a hint. Years passed, opportunities disappeared, and now Chandler finds himself 40 years old having lost five of his last six fights.
Michael Chandler could have died a hero, but he lived long enough to see himself become the villain. The same guy who was once one of the most exciting and respected fighters outside the UFC has spent the latter stages of his career getting into wars he had no business getting into and watching his legacy take hit after hit.
And now he has to stand across from one of the most dangerous strikers the lightweight division has to offer.
This fight feels like sending a cow off to slaughter.
The blueprint for Chandler is obvious. Wrestle. Grapple. Make it ugly. Force clinches. Get on top and stay there. The problem is we’ve been saying that for years now and Chandler never seems interested in following the script. Instead, he insists on standing in the pocket and trading bombs with younger, faster, more technical strikers.
That’s a terrible idea against Mauricio Ruffy.
If Chandler decides to stand and bang, I don’t think this lasts very long. Ruffy is faster, cleaner, more accurate, and far less damaged. At 40 years old, after all the wars, damage, and knockouts he’s been involved in, it’s hard to have much confidence that Chandler can absorb the type of shots Ruffy is going to be throwing back at him.
Maybe Chandler can survive a round or two if he commits to wrestling. Maybe he can force some ugly grappling exchanges and slow the fight down. But if this turns into the striking battle Chandler always seems determined to make it, he’s going to be in serious trouble.
I’ve seen some people express concern about Ruffy leaving the Fighting Nerds, but I don’t put much stock into it. We just watched him spend an entire camp preparing for Rafael Fiziev alongside Alexander Volkanovski in Australia, away from the Nerds, and turn in one of the best performances of his career.
Ruffy didn’t come out particularly sharp in that fight. Fiziev had success early and it took him a little while to settle in. But once he found his timing and got comfortable, he really started punishing a notoriously difficult guy to finish. That’s what impressed me most. It wasn’t just that he won. It was how quickly the momentum shifted once he found his range.
The age gap, speed gap, athleticism gap, and striking disparity are all pointing in the same direction here.
I think Chandler’s best chance is to wrestle early and often, but history tells us that’s probably not what he’s going to do. More likely, he’ll stand in front of Ruffy trying to prove he’s still got it, and that’s a dangerous game to play against a striker this talented.
I think we see Ruffy get t-rex arms Chandler out of there sometime in the early second round.
And honestly, this feels like it could be the final chapter of Michael Chandler’s UFC career.
Prediction:
Mauricio Ruffy by Finish
Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit
What the hell was that last “effort” from Derrick Lewis?
I mean, he looked like a guy who had absolutely no interest in being inside the octagon that night. The first sign of adversity against Waldo Cortes-Acosta and he was looking for a way out. Whether you agree with the stoppage or not, it certainly didn’t feel like we were watching a fighter who was determined to dig deep and find a way back into the fight.
What makes that performance even more concerning is that the last thing keeping people optimistic about Derrick Lewis was the win against Tallison Teixiera. The problem? That win has aged terribly.
At the time, people viewed it as Lewis turning back the clock and knocking off one of the heavyweight division’s rising prospects. Since then, Tallison has proven to be a total fraud, even by heavyweight division standards. The shine has completely worn off that victory, and when you combine that with what we saw against Waldo, it’s hard to find much evidence that Lewis is still capable of competing with the division’s next generation of contenders.
Josh Hokit is not the type of opponent you want to be facing if you’re carrying that kind of mindset into a fight.
The Incredible Hok brings relentless pressure. He’ll eat one to land two. He doesn’t stop moving forward, doesn’t stop throwing, and doesn’t stop making his opponents work. For a heavyweight, he moves incredibly well, and that’s a dangerous combination when you’re facing a fighter whose best days may be behind him.
We saw Hokit take a tremendous amount of damage against Curtis Blaydes and keep marching forward. While it looked like his cardio was starting to fade at times, one thing never changed. He kept coming. He never stopped forcing the action.
What impressed me most in that fight wasn’t the offense. It was the defensive wrestling.
We haven’t really seen Hokit showcase his offensive wrestling in the UFC yet, but we did watch him stuff takedown after takedown against one of the best wrestlers the heavyweight division has seen in years. That’s not nothing.
Now, I don’t think it would be particularly smart for Hokit to absorb punches against Derrick Lewis the same way he did against Blaydes.
Derrick Lewis hits significantly harder.
In fact, that’s really Lewis’ entire path to victory here.
He catches The Incredible Hok rushing in, lands one of those patented Black Beast bombs, and puts him out cold. Heavyweights only need one shot, and nobody in the division has built a career around that reality quite like Derrick Lewis.
The problem is everything after that.
If Hokit survives the early danger, starts backing Lewis up, and mixes in his wrestling, I think this fight gets ugly very quickly. If he can put Lewis on his back and force him to work, I don’t see Lewis offering much resistance at this stage of his career.
That’s especially true after what we saw in his last appearance.
One thing worth mentioning is the turnaround. This is a relatively quick return for Hokit after the war he had with Blaydes back in April. That’s a legitimate concern. The good news for Hokit is that as a smaller heavyweight, he doesn’t have to endure the brutal weight cuts that so many fighters deal with. That’s one less thing for his body to recover from between fights.
I’m a huge Derrick Lewis fan.
He’s electric, he’s hilarious on the microphone, and he’s given us some of the most memorable moments in heavyweight history.
But the heavyweight division needs Josh Hokit right now.
His antics can be a bit much at times, but he’s talented, he’s tough as hell, and he’s exactly the kind of fresh blood this division has been desperate for. If he’s as good as many people believe he is, this is the type of fight he’s supposed to win.
I think we see another impressive performance from The Incredible Hok.
And I think we see the end of the road for Derrick Lewis.
Prediction:
Josh Hokit by Finish
Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi
This is a tailor-made matchup for the Suga Show.
Zahabi brings very little takedown threat, he struggles with pressure, and he struggles with length. That’s a dangerous combination when you’re facing somebody like Sean O’Malley.
The way the Chito Vera matchup was tailor-made for Zahabi last time out, that’s how I see this one for O’Malley.
And even then, Zahabi managed to make Chito look halfway decent after surrendering the first round, which Chito always does. The reality is Chito Vera has looked terrible for a couple of years now. He’s painfully slow, incredibly low volume, and if it weren’t for his granite chin, I think he’d be out of the UFC. He’s simply not a dangerous fighter anymore.
O’Malley is a completely different problem.
He’s one of the most dangerous fighters in the bantamweight division because of his length and his ability to snipe opponents from the back foot. He can stay outside your range, make you miss, and make you pay for every mistake. It’s a style that has given elite fighters problems for years.
The only thing that’s consistently troubled O’Malley has been wrestling-heavy pressure, and unfortunately for everyone else in the division, Merab Dvalishvili is a complete unicorn in that department. Most fighters simply can’t replicate what Merab does.
What Zahabi does have going for him is one of the best coaching teams in all of mixed martial arts. He’s led by his brother, Firas Zahabi, and has support from one of the undisputed GOATs of the sport, Georges St-Pierre. That’s a tremendous brain trust in his corner.
The problem is coaching can only take you so far.
Zahabi enters this fight riding a seven-fight winning streak, but it’s hard not to notice how perfectly that path has been laid out for him. Jose Aldo in his retirement fight. The shell of Chito Vera. Ricky Turcios. Are those really the wins we’re supposed to be impressed by?
If Sean O’Malley still has aspirations of becoming champion again, this is the kind of fight he’s supposed to dominate.
I also think Petr Yan’s win over Merab did a lot for O’Malley’s mindset. For a while, O’Malley looked a little lost. He seemed uncertain about his path back to the belt and even started publicly questioning his future in the sport. But when Merab finally showed he was human, it reopened the door for everybody at bantamweight.
In his last fight against Song Yadong, we started seeing flashes of vintage O’Malley again. The back-foot sniping, the combination striking, the confidence. Especially in rounds two and three, he looked much closer to the version of Sean O’Malley that captured UFC gold.
Then there’s the age factor.
Zahabi is now 38 years old. As we’ve seen time and time again, age catches up with fighters quickly in the lighter weight classes. The speed starts to go, the reactions slow down, and suddenly the margins that once made you competitive disappear.
And if there’s one fighter you don’t want to lose a step against, it’s Sean O’Malley.
We also have the biggest American star on this card, sorry Justin Gaethje, fighting under the spotlight on the South Lawn of the White House. The UFC would love nothing more than to have O’Malley deliver a statement performance on a stage this big.
I think that’s exactly what happens.
Prediction:
Sean O’Malley by Decision
Alex Pereira vs Cyril Gane
This is a fight many are having a hard time breaking down and coming to a confident prediction on, and this fight is lined accordingly.
To me, I don’t see it that way.
I see a French-style kickboxer who’s been the beneficiary of some helpful judging and a dog shit heavyweight division, facing off against a Muay Thai practitioner and the most dangerous kickboxer on the planet.
I think Cyril Gane is overrated.
To me, his biggest strength is his movement and quickness at the heavyweight division. The problem is I think that’s largely neutralized in this matchup.
People act like Alex is moving up to fight some super athlete. He moved fine at middleweight against guys a lot more athletic than anything the heavyweight division has to offer. Then he moved well at light heavyweight against guys who are also a lot more athletic than most heavyweights. His hand speed has always been efficient and quick regardless of weight class.
Alex is also the more fluid striker.
Another talking point entering this fight is how Pereira will handle carrying the extra weight.
Again, I don’t really buy the concern.
Alex is expected to step into the octagon somewhere around 242 pounds. That’s nothing new for him. He was killing himself to make 205 and routinely stepping into the cage around 235-240 pounds on fight night. This isn’t some massive jump into unfamiliar territory.
There’s also talk about whether his elite power will carry up to heavyweight.
You can poke holes and raise questions in any matchup when you have two guys stepping into a cage trying to kill each other.
To me, this game plan for Alex is simple.
Gane fights with a very wide, almost karate style stance, and that leaves him susceptible to low kicks. We’ve seen him struggle with low kicks before and we’ve seen him react poorly to being kicked. The funny part is that was against a bunch of fat guy, heavyweight strikers who aren’t remotely on Pereira’s level.
Tai Tuivasa had success kicking him.
Tai Tuivasa.
Now he’s facing one of the most devastating kicking arsenals the sport has ever seen.
Against a southpaw like Gane, I think we’ll see Alex do a lot of the hand fighting he likes to use. He’ll spend the early part of the fight gathering information, finding his timing, and looking for openings, while piling up damage to Gane’s legs.
I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Gane look good and win Round 1.
He’s quick. He moves well. He’ll probably win some minutes while Alex is making reads and downloading information. We’ve seen Pereira do this before. Against Khalil Rountree, he spent portions of the early rounds figuring out exactly what was in front of him before really opening up.
But the longer this fight goes, the more I think those low kicks start piling up.
The movement starts slowing down.
The stance starts getting compromised.
The exits aren’t there anymore.
And that’s when things get dangerous.
One of the things that makes Alex so terrifying is how patient he is early. He’s perfectly comfortable gathering information and waiting for the right moment. But once he smells blood in the water, that’s when he starts letting it fly. When he sees an opponent reacting to the leg kicks, slowing down, or making mistakes defensively, he starts hunting for the finish.
The other thing I don’t like for Gane is the way he defends.
He keeps his hands low.
He reaches with his jab.
He pulls straight back with his hands down.
Against most heavyweights, that’s manageable.
Against Alex Pereira, that’s terrifying.
What exactly is Gane threatening here?
He’s not an effective kicker.
He’s not a serious wrestling threat.
He’s not somebody who’s going to force Pereira to constantly think about level changes.
This fight is likely taking place exactly where Alex wants it: a kickboxing match.
And if we’re getting a kickboxing match between Alex Pereira and Cyril Gane, I’m taking Alex Pereira every single time.
Then we get to the resume.
Gane looked good against Tom Aspinall early, but the fight didn’t even last a full round.
I thought he lost the Volkov fight.
His win over Sergei Spivac was fine, but hardly something that moves the needle.
The Jon Jones loss isn’t embarrassing in itself, but the speed with which he tapped certainly wasn’t inspiring.
And before that, he beat Tai Tuivasa in a fight that has aged horribly. Not only has Tuivasa’s stock cratered since then, but people conveniently forget that Tai badly hurt Gane in that fight. The kicks were causing problems and he even dropped him with a clean shot before Gane recovered and eventually got the finish.
I think people have spent years telling us how good Cyril Gane is without enough people asking whether the results actually support the narrative.
Meanwhile, Alex Pereira continues to do things that aren’t supposed to be possible.
I think Gane may have moments early.
I think he wins some exchanges.
I think he’ll have success with movement before Alex gets comfortable.
But once Pereira settles in and starts attacking the legs, I think the fight slowly starts shifting in one direction.
The calf kicks add up.
The movement starts disappearing.
The openings become bigger.
And eventually Pereira takes over.
I think we witness history on the South Lawn of the White House.
I think we see the UFC’s first-ever three-division champion.
And I think a new name officially enters the GOAT conversation.
Prediction:
Alex Pereira
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
The main event of the evening.
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight as a massive favorite, and rightfully so.
Justin Gaethje is a legend of the sport. Future Hall of Famer. One of the most exciting fighters we’ve ever seen, they don’t call him “Highlight” for nothing. But he’s overmatched here.
Both of these guys get hit.
The difference is one guy throws a lot more precise, controlled, and effective offense than the other.
Justin is lazy in his striking. He absorbs nearly twice as many strikes per minute as Topuria, he’s the inferior wrestler, and he’s the inferior grappler. He offers no real takedown threat, and he’s getting sloppier and sloppier as his career goes on.
He’s still an animal.
He’s still as tough as tough gets.
But Ilia Topuria is different.
The way he puts together extended combinations. The head movement. The footwork. The fight IQ. The fundamentals in every aspect of MMA are so incredibly sound that it’s difficult to find any real weakness in his game.
It’s hard to pick apart any part of what he does.
Topuria also enters this fight coming off what may be the most impressive three-fight knockout streak in UFC history.
Alexander Volkanovski.
Max Holloway.
Charles Oliveira.
Three sure-fire Hall of Famers.
Three legends of the sport.
And all three were knocked unconscious.
Not only are those bigger wins than anything Justin Gaethje has accomplished recently, I’d argue all three were better all-around fighters than Justin Gaethje. And at the time they fought Topuria, I’d also argue all three possessed better chins than the version of Justin Gaethje we’re getting today.
I know Justin Gaethje has a tremendous record as an underdog in the UFC.
I know he embraces that role.
I know he uses it as motivation.
But he’s never been this big of an underdog before.
Not against Khabib.
Not against Max Holloway.
Not against Dustin Poirier.
Not against Tony Ferguson.
There’s levels to this.
Ilia Topuria is entering his prime.
Justin Gaethje is past his.
Gaethje does have a size advantage, but it’s nothing Topuria hasn’t dealt with before. The size disadvantage he faced against Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira was the same he faces here, and it didn’t stop him from knocking both men unconscious.
People want to point to Gaethje’s kicking game as the path to victory.
Maybe.
The problem is the way Justin throws those kicks.
When Gaethje loads up and fires his kicks, he leaves himself wide open to be countered. Against most fighters, that’s a risk worth taking.
Against Ilia Topuria, that could end the fight.
Topuria is one of the best counter punchers in the sport. His timing is impeccable, and he only needs a split second to make you pay for a mistake.
The other concern for Justin is that he doesn’t really have a Plan B.
He’s not going to wrestle.
He’s not going to grapple.
He’s not going to force Topuria into uncomfortable positions.
He’s going to do what Justin Gaethje always does.
He’s going to walk forward, bite down on his mouth piece, and fight.
Normally that’s enough to make every fight competitive.
I don’t think it is here.
This fight will further prove what most of us already know.
Ilia Topuria is the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.
I think the speed is too much.
I think the accuracy is too much.
I think the technique is too much.
And eventually I think the power is too much.
Gaethje is dangerous enough to make things exciting for a little while, but I don’t think we see the third round.
Prediction:
Ilia Topuria by KO (Round 2 if we want to get specific)
For one night, the most powerful building in the world gets front-row seats to Alex Pereira trying to kick a Frenchman in the leg 200 times, Ilia Topuria trying to remove Justin Gaethje from consciousness, and Michael Chandler making another terrible life decision.
The White House gets a UFC card.
Alex Pereira gets a chance at history.
Ilia Topuria gets another Hall of Famer.
Michael Chandler gets Mauricio Ruffy.
Life comes at you fast.
God, I love this sport.
Enjoy the fights.
Official Predictions:
Steve Garcia
Kyle Daukaus
Mauricio Ruffy by Finish
Josh Hokit by Finish
Sean O’Malley by Decision
Alex Pereira
Ilia Topuria by KO
Official Picks to come Saturday after weigh ins.
