The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, which usually means one of two things. Either we’re getting a card that feels like it was assembled by throwing darts at a roster sheet, or we’re getting one of those sneaky good Fight Nights that nobody is talking about until it’s halfway over.
Thankfully, this one falls into the second category.
While UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi may not have the star power of some of the bigger numbered events we’ve seen recently, like last Sunday at the White House, it’s loaded with intriguing prospects, divisional dark horses, and a main event between two of the best flyweights on the planet.
Nearly a decade after their first meeting in Japan, Manel Kape gets a chance to avenge a loss to Kyoji Horiguchi in a fight that could have serious title implications at 125 pounds. Beyond the main event, we get another look at rising names like Navajo Stirling, Vinicius Oliveira, Andre Lima, Bia Mesquita, and Murtazali Magomedov as they continue their climb up the UFC ladder.
Let’s break it all down.
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi
Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi
This is a great main event for an Apex card. These are two of the best flyweights in the world and two fighters who could very well find themselves one win away from a title shot by the time Saturday night is over.
Horiguchi is fast. Really fast. He makes fast people look not fast. If you know, you know.
This is actually a rematch from 2017 when the two met in Japan nearly a decade ago.
A lot has changed since then.
Kape has developed into one of the most dangerous strikers in the flyweight division. He’s become more patient, more calculated, and more complete.
I truly believe we’re watching Manel Kape enter the prime of his career. The speed of Horiguchi will create problems early, but Kape is a far more complete fighter today than he was in 2017.
The smaller Apex cage should help him close distance and force exchanges.
Horiguchi is still one of the best flyweights in the world, but at this stage of their careers I believe Kape is the sharper and more dangerous fighter.
Kape gets his revenge and moves one step closer to a title shot against the winner of Van vs Pantoja 2.
Prediction:
Manel Kape
Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling
Ion Cutelaba is a kamikaze pilot.
He comes in off a win against perennial bed shitter Oumar Sy. He got Sy to tap on a choke that wouldn’t make your grandmother tap, but credit to Cutelaba for earning the win.
The move to Xtreme Couture may have helped elevate his game, but Saturday represents a massive step up from the Oumar Sy, Modestas Bukauskas, and Philipe Lins level of opposition.
City Kickboxing prospect Navajo Stirling looks like he could be a legitimate contender in a light heavyweight division that desperately needs new blood.
He’s excellent at working behind the jab and following it with something heavier. He’s defensively responsible and continues to improve every time we see him.
I think Stirling runs through Cutelaba on Saturday and moves to 5-0 in the UFC.
Prediction:
Navajo Stirling (Leaning Decision)
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili
We see the debut of Vinicius Oliveira at featherweight. A move that’s been necessary for some time now, and no better time to change something than coming off a loss.
At 135 pounds, Oliveira looked dead on the scales. Completely drained, exhausted, and frankly unhealthy. This move was inevitable.
Vini is electric. He’s awkward, quirky, explosive, and a freak athlete. Last time out against Mario Bautista, we learned after the fight that he was competing with a fractured forearm, a slight rotator cuff tear, and a meniscus tear.
The question now becomes how healthy is he just four months later?
If it’s all systems go, he’ll be a difficult out at 145 pounds.
Andre Fili is a jack of all trades and an ace of none. He can strike from both stances, grapple when necessary, and has a dangerous guillotine, but nothing about his game truly jumps off the page.
Coming off a loss and fully aware of what a second straight defeat could do to his career trajectory, I have to believe Oliveira is showing up motivated and healthy.
He has the frame and build to support the move up, and this should only help his durability. At 135 pounds he looked completely drained on the scale. At 145, we may finally get to see the best version of Vinicius Oliveira.
Prediction:
Vinicius Oliveira by Finish
Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez
This is a fight between two guys heading in opposite directions from where they expected to be a year ago. Hyder Amil entered 2026 undefeated before dropping back-to-back fights, while Christian Rodriguez has lost three of his last four. That record can be a little misleading though, as Rodriguez has consistently fought some of the better prospects the division has to offer.
For Rodriguez, he’s at his best when he can be the hammer in the fight. When he’s the nail, you know he’s in for a long night, or I guess a short one by octagon time standards.
Hyder Amil is very good at bringing forward pressure. The problem is he’s not always very calculated in bringing that pressure and can leave himself wide open to a counter or an exit shot when breaking from the clinch.
We also saw Amil struggle with the wrestling in his last fight against Jamall Emmers. Christian Rodriguez doesn’t really look for takedowns, averaging just 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing only about 40% of them.
Because of that, I expect this fight to take place primarily on the feet.
If Amil can bring that pressure and avoid getting clipped on the counter, I think he’s very live to pull off the upset here against Rodriguez and that’s the side I’ll lean.
Prediction:
Hyder Amil
Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas comes in off a loss to exciting prospect Imanol Rodriguez in Rodriguez’s UFC debut. It was a fight in which Borjas rocked and dropped Imanol twice before eating an overhand right that put him down and ended his night.
Borjas was a big dog in that fight and fought in Rodriguez’s native Mexico, so he wasn’t supposed to win. I saw a lot of positives despite the defeat. His willingness to hang in the pocket and throw hard, and his ability to throw complete combinations.
The problem is he’s always searching for that check hook. He leaves his lead hand in his pocket and his chin wide open.
Andre Lima is 4-0 in the UFC and undefeated as a professional. We haven’t seen him in about 15 months. In his last fight against Barez we saw him spam low kicks, do a lot of damage to the legs, and eventually find the finish on the mat.
He’s a versatile striker who mixes kicks and elbows well while maintaining a high guard. He comes forward and brings the same type of pressure that Imanol Rodriguez brought and I think that’s the biggest difference in this fight.
I think we see Lima keep his 0 and I think he finds a finish here.
Prediction:
Andre Lima by Finish
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov
Magomedov has a high guard and good movement. He likes to take some time to calculate his opponents and is selective. He waits for his opening and counters. He’s also a very good grappler with 5 submission wins in his professional career, ahead of his UFC debut Saturday night.
Melsik is a kickboxer who likes to work to the body. We last saw him over a year ago against Jean Silva. Silva knocked him out, but that loss aged just fine.
There are two major concerns with Melsik. The first being he has 5 fights in the UFC and 7 cancelled fights in the UFC, 5 of which were due to him withdrawing because of injuries, including a broken hand and a torn labrum before the Silva fight.
The other issue is when he goes to the ground, he seems content to let the fight stay there. That’s never a good quality, especially when you’re facing someone named Magomedov that’ll take you down, press you against the cage, and swarm you like a dog on a bone.
This will be Melsik’s downfall in this fight and the reason I will be on the Magomedov side here.
Prediction:
Murtazali Magomedov
Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins
I’ll keep this one short and sweet.
Bia Mesquita is the real deal. She’s as dangerous for a finish as any woman on the active UFC roster. Her jiu-jitsu is world class, her submission game is lethal, and once she gets a fight where she wants it, things tend to unravel very quickly for her opponents.
Melissa Mullins is a solid fighter, with a low fight IQ at times, and this feels like a matchup that plays directly into Mesquita’s strengths. If this fight hits the mat for any meaningful amount of time, I expect Bia to have a massive advantage.
I’d love to see Mesquita get a step up in competition after this one. Ultimately, I think she’s worthy of a Top 10 opponent and a legitimate push toward title contention. A matchup with Ailin Perez would be a fascinating test and tell us exactly where she stands in the division.
All that said, I think Bia handles business on Saturday night. She’s simply too dangerous on the ground and I think she finds another finish.
Prediction:
Bia Mesquita by Submission
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
I think this one is Nascimento all day.
Mitch Raposo just doesn’t do enough for me. He’s low volume, doesn’t put together much offense, and too often finds himself giving rounds away waiting for something to happen instead of making it happen himself.
Nascimento is a massive flyweight and at times has even had a difficult time making the 125-pound limit. Once he gets into the cage though, that size advantage becomes very apparent. He’s one of the bigger and more physically imposing fighters in the division and that gives opponents problems from the opening bell.
The biggest concern with Nascimento has always been his gas tank. It’s fair to wonder how much the difficult weight cuts contribute to that. We’ve seen him slow down in fights before, particularly as they get into the later rounds.
Even if that happens here, I just don’t believe Raposo has the volume, power, or urgency on the feet to make Nascimento pay for it. Nascimento has shown an ability to land takedowns, control positions, eat minutes, and bank rounds when necessary. Against a fighter like Raposo, that style should be more than enough.
I think Nascimento is simply the better fighter everywhere this matchup goes. He’s the bigger man, the better grappler, and the more dangerous submission threat.
This is Nascimento all day and I think he’s very live for a finish.
Prediction:
Allan Nascimento by Submission
Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell
This is a pretty simple breakdown. Gaston Bolanos is terrible. Michael Aswell is pretty good.
Bolanos had the hype of being this big-time striker, but he’s got a terrible chin and gets exposed on the feet. Aswell is much better in every respect of MMA and I think the wide line is justified here.
This might be the biggest mismatch of the week on paper. Aswell actually looked pretty decent against Luke Riley in his last fight. This is a huge step down in competition.
Michael Aswell finds Bolanos’ chin and earns himself a bonus Saturday night.
Prediction:
Michael Aswell by KO
Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos
This is a pretty good matchup here from a talent perspective. It’s hard to split these two on talent and both have paths to victory.
Rosa does her best work when she can be a physical bully and control things from on top. Santos may have the better grappling and I think she’s more dangerous with her submissions. Santos is also the younger fighter who continues to improve from fight to fight.
Rosa has the edge in resume, but I think Santos is a tough matchup for her. If Luana can get takedowns, she’ll win this fight. I see her finding that success and winning minutes in this one, and I think she’s very live to find a submission too.
When she can find an arm or angle, look out.
Prediction:
Luana Santos by Submission
Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli
A showdown between two guys making their UFC debut. Leon Shahbazyan, big brother of Edmen Shahbazyan, comes into this matchup with a 12-4 professional record, and he couldn’t be more different than his brother.
Leon is a submission artist with a nasty guillotine, and he has no chin.
Chokheli is a solid fighter with a good enough resume in lower promotions. He dropped a couple of fights to respectable veterans, but overall I think he’s the superior fighter in this matchup. He’s the better striker and he’s the better wrestler. If he can keep his neck out of harm’s way, I think he’ll roll through Leon here.
Can’t trust that chin.
Prediction:
Levan Chokheli by KO
Shane Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi
Otari Tanzilovi fought Musasas on DWCS, and lost a split decision. It was a pretty disappointing effort, just underwhelming. He’s a good striker who had a tendency to overthrow with his punches, and when you swing and miss, it really takes a toll on your gas tank and that’s what we saw in that DWCS loss.
Shane Collins comes into this one undefeated in 7 professional fights. He’s a very calculated technical striker. He sets up his combinations well and sets up his power punches very well. He manages his distance while he knows how to stay safe during exchanges in the pocket.
I think the difference in this fight is the fight IQ and understanding of being calculated during exchanges. I think we see Shane Collins come out on top and I think it’s by decision.
Prediction:
Shane Collins by Decision
No, this isn’t UFC Freedom 250 at the White House.
There won’t be a sitting President cage side. There won’t be multiple title fights. There won’t be the same star-studded lineup that had everyone counting down the days last week.
But not every event needs to be a spectacle to be a good card.
This one feels like the type of Fight Night that quietly over delivers. The main event has legitimate title implications at flyweight, there are several intriguing prospects throughout the card, and stylistically there are a lot of fights that should produce action.
Whether it’s Navajo Stirling continuing his climb at light heavyweight, Bia Mesquita making another statement in the women’s divisions, Andre Lima keeping his undefeated record intact, or Manel Kape taking another step toward a title shot, there are plenty of storylines worth following on Saturday night.
Sometimes the cards with the fewest household names end up being the most entertaining.
This may not be the biggest event of the year, but it looks like a promising card and a fun night of fights.
Enjoy the event.
