One more.
Just one more Apex card standing between us and the absurdity that is UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn next weekend. Yes, that’s a real sentence. Yes, it’s actually happening.
But before we get title fights, fireworks, and whatever insanity Dana White has planned for Washington, we’re stuck spending one final Saturday inside the Apex.
And man, this card is rough.
The main event between Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim is solid enough. Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan is interesting. Fares Ziam continues his march toward contender status. After that? You’re asking a lot from me.
We’ve got a collection of low-level women’s fights, Junior Tafa attempting to convince us he knows what wrestling is, Matt Schnell somehow still collecting UFC paychecks, and enough short-notice replacements to make this card look like it was assembled in the UFC parking lot on Tuesday afternoon.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made or fights worth talking about. It just means we’re going to have to work a little harder to find them.
Let’s get through this one together and then turn our attention to the card everybody actually cares about.
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza
A rematch from 2019 that took place before either of these women made it to the UFC.
This is a very low-level fight. They’re both pretty brutal and nowhere near as respectable inside the Octagon as their records might suggest. Carnelossi is painfully slow on the feet, both women are bad off their backs, and neither has a gas tank worth writing home about.
What they do have is power.
Both girls throw hard and are willing to stand in the pocket longer than they probably should. The betting line feels a little wide considering how low-level and volatile this matchup really is.
That being said, Souza is the better fighter. I think a rare women’s MMA finish is very live here, and if one of them finds it, I’d trust Souza to be the one landing the shot.
Pick: Ketlen Souza
Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben
Jeisla Chaves throws everything with bad intentions.
She’s not the most cerebral fighter. She’s not looking to set traps or build combinations. Every punch she throws looks like she’s trying to remove her opponent’s head from their shoulders.
Normally that’s not the best long-term strategy, but it might be enough against someone like Yuneisy Duben.
We already saw Duben get flatlined by Carli Judice in her UFC debut. I’m not comparing Chaves to Judice, but getting knocked unconscious by a single kick isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of your durability.
Another women’s fight where I think the finish is very much in play.
Pick: Jeisla Chaves by KO
Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt
Joanderson Brito is a fun fighter, but he’s dumb as a box of rocks.
He’s going to try to kick the wrestler and eventually end up on his back, where the round will probably end. Brito is the more talented and dangerous fighter, but his fight IQ is so low that he simply can’t be trusted.
I think we could see a similar Jordan Leavitt performance to the one we saw against Yadier Del Valle. A veteran giving a younger fighter a lesson in experience and decision-making. Brito will have moments because he always does, but I trust Leavitt to keep dragging him into the kind of fight he wants.
This fight going the distance feels very likely, and I think Leavitt is extremely live to pull off the upset.
Pick: Jordan Leavitt
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler
The theme of low-level women’s fights continues.
Man, are these two bad.
Priscila Cachoeira has never once been accused of believing in defense. Her preferred method of stopping incoming punches is absorbing them directly with her face.
That brings us to Chelsea Chandler, who might actually be halfway decent if she cared enough to maximize her abilities. She’s a habitual weight misser, never seems particularly dialed in for camp, and has spent most of her UFC run underachieving.
The good news for Chandler is that she’s facing Priscila Cachoeira.
The bad news is she’s still Chelsea Chandler.
Neither woman is especially technical, but Cachoeira does possess legitimate power and she’s always willing to make things ugly. Against a fighter who constantly leaves questions about her preparation and professionalism, that might be enough.
I can’t believe I’m picking Priscila Cachoeira to win a UFC fight in 2026, but here we are.
The UFC finally found someone she can beat.
Pick: Priscila Cachoeira
Edgar Chairez vs. Bruno Silva
Bruno Silva was robbed in his last fight against Charles Johnson.
There is no way anybody with half a brain scored that fight for Johnson. The kind of decision that makes you lose faith in the humanity of MMA judges.
Edgar Chairez comes in off a disappointing performance of his own, failing to find a finish against Felipe Bunes. That said, Chairez has a sneaky good resume. His recent losses came against current champion Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, who just fought Van for the title. There is absolutely no shame in either of those defeats.
Silva’s losing resume is equally respectable, having dropped fights to Van and Manel Kape.
This feels like one of those fights where the records don’t tell the whole story. Both guys are better than their numbers suggest. Chairez probably has the edge technically, but Silva is the more dangerous fighter minute-to-minute.
Pick: Bruno Silva
Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis
This is a clash of strikers.
John Yannis is the more technical striker, but Marcus McGhee is far more creative and unorthodox. He’ll throw spinning attacks, attack from weird angles, and create exchanges that most fighters aren’t comfortable dealing with.
McGhee did manage to take a round off Petr Yan in his last fight. He wasn’t competitive enough to win the fight, but he survived well, avoided major damage, and showed that he belongs at this level.
I don’t believe in MMA math, but I do believe Marcus McGhee is a legitimate UFC-caliber fighter. I’m still not entirely convinced Yannis is. Yes, he won his UFC debut impressively, but I’m not sold on the level of competition he beat.
This fight should stay standing, and if that’s the case, I trust McGhee’s experience, durability, and overall activity level.
Pick: Marcus McGhee by Decision
Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
Why is Matt Schnell still in the UFC?
Costa steps in on short notice and honestly, I don’t think there’s much to break down here. Alessandro Costa is a legitimate UFC fighter. Matt Schnell looks completely cooked.
Schnell has always been tough and willing to fight through adversity, but at some point durability becomes damage accumulation, and it feels like we’ve reached that point.
Costa is younger, faster, more athletic, and frankly better everywhere.
No need to overcomplicate this one.
Pick: Alessandro Costa by Finish
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa
As much as I hate Junior Tafa as a fighter and think he sucks, this isn’t a great matchup for Iwo on paper.
Iwo hits like a truck and pushes a tremendous pace, but he also gets hit. The one thing Tafa brings to the table is legitimate one-shot knockout power. If he lands clean, anybody can go to sleep.
The problem is that’s basically all he brings.
If you get Junior Tafa to the ground, the fight is essentially over. His grappling is horrific. Like, he thinks the word wrestle is spelled with an R.
In Iwo’s brief professional career we haven’t really seen much of his wrestling yet, but he does own submission victories on his record. If that’s a real part of his game, this should be a very favorable matchup for him.
I have confidence in Iwo weathering whatever brief storm Tafa brings before eventually dragging this thing to the mat and exposing the massive hole in Tafa’s game.
Pick: Iwo Baraniewski by Submission
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna takes this fight on short notice. He comes in undefeated and is an Olympic-level wrestler. His striking is improving and he uses it well to set up his takedowns.
Bryce Mitchell has found new life as a bantamweight. He’s awkward, relentless, does good work in the clinch, and looked surprisingly good in his last outing against Said Nurmagomedov.
Luna hasn’t faced anything quite like Mitchell in his young career. The wrestling exchanges should be fascinating, but this feels like too much too soon.
Without a ton of confidence, I’ll side with the veteran.
Pick: Bryce Mitchell by Decision
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan is a solid fighter. He’s dangerous. Unfortunately for him, he’s fighting Fares Ziam.
Ziam looks like a legitimate lightweight contender. He’s long, technical, disciplined, and his size largely neutralizes Nolan’s biggest advantage, which is usually being one of the biggest lightweights in the division.
I think we see another clinical performance from Ziam.
Pick: Fares Ziam by Decision
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Brendan Allen comes into this fight off a win over the ghost of Reinier de Ridder.
Allen has a significant advantage in the grappling department and may also have the better cardio. But I think we’re finally starting to see Edmen Shahbazyan turn a corner.
The power has always been there. The striking has always been there. The questions surrounding Shahbazyan have always been his cardio and defensive awareness.
I think we’ve seen real improvements in both areas.
Brendan Allen also suffers from what I call Randy Brown-itis. Every time it looks like he’s about to position himself for a major title opportunity, he completely shits the bed.
The fact that this fight is only three rounds is another checkmark in Shahbazyan’s favor.
I think Edmen comes out aggressively, wins the early striking exchanges, and puts Allen in a position where he needs a finish late.
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim
The main event features two fighters I’m not particularly high on.
Belal Muhammad may very well be the least physically gifted welterweight champion we’ve ever seen. What made Belal successful was always his cardio, durability, pressure, and fight IQ.
Unfortunately, the physical tools appear to be trending in the wrong direction.
Gabriel Bonfim’s record is more impressive than the actual names on it, but he’s dangerous. He throws excellent front kicks and knees, attacks the legs well, and is constantly threatening submissions.
Most importantly, he’s simply the more dangerous fighter.
Belal may still be the smarter fighter. He may still be the tougher fighter. But if you’re asking me which fighter is more likely to create finishing opportunities, hurt his opponent, or produce the bigger moments, the answer is Bonfim.
I think the wrong fighter is favored.
Pick: Gabriel Bonfim
That’s it for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim.
Not the greatest card we’ve ever seen. Not the worst either. Somewhere in that sweet spot where half the fights look terrible on paper and somehow we’ll end up with three Fight of the Night candidates because MMA makes absolutely no sense.
We’ve got a few prospects worth keeping an eye on, a couple of live underdogs, and at least one fighter on this card who probably shouldn’t be in the UFC anymore. So naturally he’ll probably go out there and win.
As always, these are just my opinions. If you tail the picks and lose your mortgage payment, that’s on you. If we cash tickets, however, I will be accepting full credit.
Enjoy the fights, good luck with your bets, and most importantly, survive one more Apex card.
Next stop: UFC Freedom 250 at the White House.
