2026 Belmont Stakes Preview: Three Horses Can Win This Race
The Triple Crown season comes to a close Saturday at Saratoga, and unlike the Kentucky Derby, this year’s Belmont Stakes doesn’t feature a horse that towers over the field.
That’s good news for bettors.
We’ve got a vulnerable favorite, a Kentucky Derby winner I’m willing to oppose completely, several horses looking to rebound from troubled Derby trips, and one lightly raced wildcard who may still have his best race ahead of him.
After going through the field, I’ve narrowed this race down to three legitimate win contenders, two horses I’ll use underneath, and four runners I’m willing to toss entirely.
Let’s get into it.
#1 Vitruvian Man (30-1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Doug O’Neill sends out Vitruvian Man. Doug has made a career of pulling off major upsets in races where his horses looked like they had no business running. If Vitruvian Man wins the Belmont on Saturday, it may be the biggest upset of O’Neill’s career.
This horse is simply too slow.
He was a well-beaten third in the Santa Anita Derby, and the two horses who finished ahead of him proceeded to run in the Kentucky Derby where they should be crossing the wire any second now.
He doesn’t fit on speed figures. He doesn’t fit on form. He doesn’t fit against this field.
Enjoy the free lunch.
Verdict: Toss
#2 Powershift (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Powershift is one of the more intriguing horses in the field and has generated a bit of buzz coming into this race.
He debuted against fellow Belmont entrant Emerging Market on the Sam F. Davis undercard at Tampa. That race turned into a two-horse affair as the pair finished 13 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Powershift entered with plenty of hype but was run down late by Emerging Market.
Connections clearly thought highly of him, sending him straight into the Tampa Bay Derby despite still being a maiden. That experiment failed, and after doing very little running that afternoon, they regrouped and returned him to maiden company on Kentucky Derby Day where the third time proved to be the charm.
He’s obviously shown enough in the mornings for Todd Pletcher to take a shot here, but this feels like too much, too soon.
Could he improve dramatically? Sure.
Do I think it happens Saturday? No.
Maybe we see him in the Curlin Stakes later this summer with a long-term goal of the Pennsylvania Derby.
Saturday isn’t the day.
Verdict: Toss
#3 Chief Wallabee (3-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Our Kentucky Derby pick returns for another shot in the Belmont.
Chief Wallabee ran a sneaky good fourth at Churchill Downs despite getting caught up in the mid-stretch bumping incident. What stood out to me was that he was the only horse involved who continued to finish with purpose while the others largely threw in the towel.
I’m still extremely high on this horse.
Saturday will be his second start at ten furlongs, and I think we see another step forward. Bill Mott skipped the Preakness and pointed specifically for this race.
Everything sets up beautifully.
Chief Wallabee is once again one of my three win candidates and the horse I’ll be building most of my tickets around.
Verdict: Win Contender
#4 Renegade (2-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
The Kentucky Derby runner-up returns as the likely favorite.
Renegade got a dream trip in Louisville. Despite drawing the rail, Irad Ortiz saved every inch of ground, worked out a perfect trip, and never encountered significant trouble when it came time to make his run.
The bumping noted in the running line was minimal at best and certainly wasn’t enough to cost him the race.
He simply got run down by Golden Tempo.
This is a very good horse, but I don’t think he’s getting the same pace setup on Saturday that he received in the Derby. At what will likely be a short price, I’d rather side with others as win candidates.
Still, leaving him off tickets entirely would be foolish. But at even money or less, which he’ll likely be, I can’t endorse him.
Verdict: Underneath Use
#5 Ottinho (20-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Ottinho is by Quality Road and is a half-brother to Horse of the Year and elite sire Gun Runner.
That’s the sales pitch.
Unfortunately, pedigree doesn’t win the Belmont Stakes.
This horse is simply too slow and appears to be the weakest member of Chad Brown’s trio.
Price doesn’t matter.
Verdict: Toss
#6 Growth Equity (12-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Manny Franco
Growth Equity is one of the more interesting horses in this field.
He’s improved with every start and exploded with a breakout performance in the Peter Pan. Was it the strongest Peter Pan field we’ve ever seen? No. Was it exactly what you wanted to see from an improving colt heading into a race like this? Absolutely.
I love the spacing from the Peter Pan into the Belmont, and I think he’s sitting on another forward move.
The problem is that I prefer three others slightly more when it comes to winning.
Still, he’s absolutely a horse I want on my tickets.
Verdict: Underneath Use
#7 Commandment (6-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
Commandment may have had the worst trip of anyone in the Kentucky Derby.
He broke slowly, raced wide around both turns, and took the worst of the stretch bumping incident.
Prior to Louisville, he’d done virtually nothing wrong, winning four of five starts while sweeping the Gulfstream Park prep series.
I went back and forth between Commandment and Chief Wallabee as my top selection.
If you’re on Commandment instead, I completely understand it.
The addition of Hall of Famer John Velazquez only adds to the appeal.
Expect a much better effort on Saturday.
Verdict: Win Contender
#8 Emerging Market (6-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Three things in life are guaranteed:
Death.
Taxes.
And Flavien Prat giving a horse a perfect ride in a big race.
The more I look at this race, the more I find myself coming back to Emerging Market.
He entered the Kentucky Derby as one of the biggest wildcards in the field due to his lack of experience, and I’m not sure we learned much from that effort. Drawn outside, he may have been used a bit more early than connections would have liked, and when the real running started, he simply had no response.
I’m willing to forgive it.
This horse is still lightly raced, still improving, and still has far more upside than most of the horses in this field.
If he takes another step forward Saturday, he’s absolutely capable of winning this race.
Verdict: Win Contender
#9 Golden Tempo (9-2)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
The Kentucky Derby winner returns.
And I’m fading him completely.
Golden Tempo is a dead closer who benefited from a pace meltdown in Louisville. Smaller fields typically hurt horses with his running style because there are fewer targets and less chaos in front of them.
Drawing outside doesn’t bother me because he’ll be dropping over and trying to save ground anyway.
The pace setup does.
I think he’s a good horse.
I think he’s better than Rich Strike.
I also think he has absolutely zero chance of winning this race.
At a relatively short price, I’ll happily let him beat me.
Verdict: Toss
Win Contenders
- Chief Wallabee
- Commandment
- Emerging Market
Borderline Uses
- Growth Equity
- Renegade
Tosses
- Vitruvian Man
- Powershift
- Ottinho
- Golden Tempo
Suggested Bets ($200 Bankroll)
$26 Exacta Box
3, 7, 8
- Chief Wallabee
- Commandment
- Emerging Market
Total: $156
$0.50 Trifecta
3, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 / ALL
Looking to capitalize if one of my three win contenders gets the job done while still allowing for chaos underneath.
Total: $42
$2 Trifecta
3 / 7 / 8
Chief Wallabee over Commandment over Emerging Market.
A small press in case the race unfolds exactly how I envision it.
Total: $2
Total Investment
$200
Three horses can win this race.
Chief Wallabee.
Commandment.
Emerging Market.
Everybody else is running for a minor award.
Let’s cash one last Triple Crown ticket.
See you all for Saratoga and Del Mar.
