GAME OF THE NIGHT: GONZAGA -4.5 VS. PURDUE
Hall of Fame Series | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas | 7:30 ET | TNT
I’m not going to waste your time. This is my favorite bet on the board tonight, and it’s not particularly close.
College basketball is back, and we’re opening the season by laying a short number with a team I believe belongs in the top five. The voters have Gonzaga somewhere in the teens. The voters are wrong. Give it a month.
Meanwhile, Purdue is getting respect based on the name stitched across the front of its jerseys rather than the guys actually wearing them.
Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn are gone. That’s not just losing three players. That’s losing the engine, the transmission, and most of the damn car.
What’s left is one of the least experienced groups Matt Painter has ever coached, and their last tune-up was a 76-53 beatdown at UConn in which they shot a breathtaking 2-for-25 from three.
Two. For. Twenty-five.
That’s not a cold shooting night. That’s a team still trying to figure out where the hell its points are supposed to come from.
And Gonzaga is about the last team you want to face while figuring that out.
THE X’S AND O’S
1. Make the 7-4 guy run.
Everyone is talking about Daniel Jacobsen like he’s some kind of cheat code.
And maybe he is, provided the game is played entirely in the half court and he’s allowed to set up camp in the paint like he’s got a 30-year mortgage.
Here’s an idea: Don’t let him get comfortable.
Xaivian Lee is a jet. Mark Few himself called him “very, very fast,” and Purdue is going to miss shots. A lot of them.
Those missed threes create long rebounds, and long rebounds create transition opportunities. Lee gets the ball, puts his head down, and suddenly Jacobsen has to sprint 94 feet to protect the rim.
I don’t care how tall you are. A 7-4 center isn’t winning a footrace against Xaivian Lee.
Every transition layup is two points Jacobsen never had a chance to defend. Every possession Gonzaga pushes the pace is another possession Purdue can’t dictate the terms.
Make the big man run. Then make him run again.
2. Pull Jacobsen away from the rim.
Now let’s say Purdue actually manages to get back on defense.
Fine. Gonzaga has an answer for that, too.
Braden Huff doesn’t need to spend the night wrestling Jacobsen on the low block. Put Huff at the elbow, let him face up, and force Jacobsen to make a decision.
Step out to contest Huff, and Diop dives behind him for the high-low pass.
Stay home to protect the rim, and Huff gets a clean look from 15 feet.
Bring Izan Almansa into the equation, another 6-10 big with shooting ability, and now Purdue has to decide which Gonzaga big man it’s willing to leave open.
There isn’t a particularly good answer.
Huff also has the footwork to put Jacobsen in uncomfortable positions defensively. Get the big fella reaching, get him moving laterally, and see how long it takes before the whistles start coming.
Two early fouls on Jacobsen would be an absolute disaster for Purdue.
Suddenly the guy everyone spent the offseason talking about is sitting next to Matt Painter, watching Gonzaga score from the bench.
Some cheat code.
3. Purdue has a massive problem replacing Braden Smith.
For years, Purdue’s offense had a simple solution whenever things got uncomfortable.
Give Braden Smith the basketball.
He could run the pick-and-roll, manipulate defenders, find shooters, create something out of nothing, and generally prevent possessions from turning into complete disasters.
That security blanket is gone.
And while Painter is an excellent coach, he can’t magically manufacture years of chemistry and playmaking experience overnight.
Who’s creating the offense when the first action gets blown up? Who’s breaking down a defender with eight seconds on the shot clock? Who’s consistently getting the ball to the right guy in the right spot?
Those are enormous questions to be answering in your season opener against Gonzaga.
The Zags have the personnel to make life miserable. Diop gives them a 7-1 shot blocker protecting the rim, and the defensive game plan practically writes itself.
Wall off the paint. Force Purdue to create off the dribble. Make them settle for contested jumpers.
And if a team that just went 2-for-25 from three wants to beat me by making outside shots, be my guest.
I’ll live with that.
4. Davis Fogle is the matchup Purdue can’t solve.
Here’s the guy I think can turn this from a competitive game into a double-digit Gonzaga win.
Davis Fogle.
A 6-7 shooting guard who’s healthy again and presents the kind of matchup nightmare that makes defensive coordinators reconsider their career choices.
John Calipari went as far as suggesting Gonzaga would’ve beaten Arkansas by 20 with Fogle on the floor.
That’s quite an endorsement.
Now Purdue has to figure out who the hell is supposed to guard him.
Put a smaller guard on Fogle, and he can shoot right over the top or take him into the post.
Put a forward on him, and Fogle has the ability to attack off the dribble.
And here’s the real problem: Purdue can’t devote its entire defensive game plan to stopping one guy.
With Lee, Harwell, Fogle, Huff, and Diop sharing the floor, Gonzaga has multiple ways to attack. Help too aggressively on one matchup, and somebody else gets an opportunity.
It’s a pick-your-poison situation.
Unfortunately for Purdue, all the options involve poison.
5. The rebounding battle isn’t the advantage Purdue thinks it is.
Matt Painter teams have historically made a living doing the ugly stuff.
They get bigger than you, beat you up on the glass, grab offensive rebounds, and turn basketball games into 40-minute wrestling matches.
It’s effective. It’s annoying. And when Purdue has the personnel to execute it, it’s incredibly difficult to deal with.
But Gonzaga isn’t showing up with a bunch of undersized guards and a prayer.
Huff, Diop, and Almansa give the Zags legitimate size, length, and physicality. They’re not going to be intimidated by Purdue’s frontcourt.
And that’s a huge part of this handicap.
Purdue needs second-chance opportunities to compensate for its offensive limitations. If Gonzaga can hold its own on the glass and finish defensive possessions with rebounds, those extra possessions disappear.
Now Purdue has to score efficiently in the half court.
Good luck with that.
THE NUMBERS AND THE NOISE
Bart Torvik has Gonzaga ranked eighth and Purdue 29th.
Gonzaga has won 22 consecutive regular-season openers.
And according to the betting split I’m looking at, approximately 98% of spread tickets are coming in on Purdue.
Ninety-eight percent.
Apparently the entire country saw Purdue’s name, remembered the last few years, noticed a 7-4 center on the roster, and decided that was enough research for one evening.
I see something completely different.
Purdue owns a 5-0 record against Gonzaga in the series. Wonderful. Congratulations to everyone involved.
Unfortunately, none of those previous wins are going to suit up and help Purdue handle Xaivian Lee tonight.
History doesn’t play defense.
Neither does name recognition.
And while I’m not blindly fading the public just because the public likes something, I have absolutely no problem standing on the other side when I think the matchup is this favorable.
Let everybody else pay for the Purdue brand name.
I’ll take the better basketball situation.
HOW IT PLAYS OUT
I expect Gonzaga to establish the pace early.
Lee pushes the basketball, Purdue struggles to get organized defensively, and Jacobsen spends the opening minutes trying to figure out whether he’s supposed to protect the rim, chase Huff away from the basket, or call for a substitution.
I’m looking for Gonzaga to attack him early and often.
If Jacobsen picks up a couple of quick fouls, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Purdue will have stretches where the offense completely stalls. Without a proven replacement for Smith’s ability to manufacture good possessions, those scoring droughts are going to be difficult to avoid.
And Gonzaga is exactly the kind of team that can turn a four-point lead into a 14-point lead before the opposing coach can get to the scorer’s table.
By the under-eight timeout in the second half, I expect the Zags to be comfortably ahead, Jacobsen to be exhausted or in foul trouble, and half the people holding Purdue tickets to be checking the UCLA-Arizona line.
That’s usually how you know you’ve made the right side of a bet.
THE PICK: GONZAGA -4.5
I think Gonzaga is faster, deeper, more versatile offensively, and better equipped to exploit the specific weaknesses Purdue brings into this matchup.
Four and a half points isn’t enough.
Gonzaga -4.5. Zags by double digits.
Don’t overthink it.
