UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Halloween at the Apex
Nothing scarier on Halloween than a bad parlay, a questionable judging decision, or watching your under 2.5 get murdered with three seconds left in the round.
The UFC returns to the Apex on October 31, and while this card isn't exactly overflowing with household names, there's plenty to work with. We've got a veteran main-eventer trying to derail a rising prospect, a couple of live underdogs, some promising newcomers, and one final appearance from an Apex legend who has made a career out of turning perfectly normal fights into absolute chaos.
We've also got a longstanding rule here at Mentally on IR: We fade every fighter named Cody. No exceptions, no appeals, and absolutely no refunds.
Twelve fights. A few tricks. Hopefully more treats.
Let's get into it.
RENATO MOICANO VS. TOM NOLAN
Tom Nolan is good. He's doing exactly what he's supposed to do, and he's earned himself a ranked opponent. But here's the question: How legit is he, really?
Because when you actually look at his UFC résumé, those wins have aged like milk.
Victor Martinez, Alex Reyes, Viacheslav Borshchev, Charlie Campbell, and Fares Ziam. That's not exactly a murderers' row.
The Ziam win is what really built the hype. Ziam came in ranked No. 15, riding a six-fight winning streak, and closed as a -325 favorite. Nolan walked in as the underdog and beat him. Impressive at the time, absolutely. But since then, Ziam has turned out to be a total fraud, and suddenly Nolan's signature win doesn't look nearly as impressive.
Now compare that with Moicano.
Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar, Cub Swanson, Jai Herbert, Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Benoit Saint Denis. That's a real résumé against real fighters. Moicano has been in there with killers, and he's beaten plenty of them.
This is a massive step up in competition for Nolan, but it's a step down for Moicano.
That's an important distinction.
Moicano has spent years sharing the Octagon with some of the best fighters in the world. Nolan has been building his record against opponents who aren't remotely on that level. One guy is getting the biggest test of his career. The other is getting a less proven opponent after years of fighting killers.
The striking numbers reveal another problem for Nolan. He lands 5.9 significant strikes per minute, which is excellent, but he absorbs 4.7. Moicano absorbs just 3.5. Nolan's offense is impressive, but he's leaving the front door wide open.
And we've already seen what happens when somebody finds his chin. Nikolas Motta knocked him out just 63 seconds into his UFC debut.
The supposed size advantage isn't nearly as significant as it sounds, either. Nolan stands 6'2" with a 73-inch reach. Moicano is 5'11" with a 72-inch reach. Three inches of height, but only one inch of reach.
Now, there is one legitimate concern: Nolan's grappling.
He's a BJJ black belt, he got the better of Ziam on the mat, and his takedown defense sits at 71%. He's not some helpless striker waiting to be submitted.
But defending a takedown and surviving a scramble against Renato Moicano are two completely different things.
Moicano doesn't need to blast through a double-leg. He needs one sloppy exchange against the fence, one lazy sprawl, or one moment where Nolan gives up his back. Once that happens, Moicano turns into a human backpack, and getting him off is a nightmare.
He finishes 62% of his wins for a reason.
And then there's the five-round format, which I believe is another significant advantage for Moicano.
Nolan has never been scheduled to go 25 minutes. Moicano has already been through the grind of UFC main events against elite competition. That's a completely different kind of experience.
You can look great for 15 minutes against lesser opponents, but maintaining that same pace, discipline, and composure over five rounds against a veteran like Moicano is another story.
The longer this fight goes, the more I favor Money Moicano.
I wouldn't be surprised if Nolan wins the opening round with volume and activity. But as the fight progresses, I expect Moicano's experience to take over. He'll find his counters, force Nolan into uncomfortable exchanges, and eventually get this fight into the positions where he's most dangerous.
But here's the thing: Moicano might not even need all five rounds.
Nolan's defensive openings are real, and Moicano doesn't need 25 minutes to find his back. One bad scramble, one sloppy takedown defense, and suddenly Nolan is fighting for his life with a Brazilian submission specialist wrapped around his neck.
Five rounds give Moicano more time to expose Nolan's weaknesses. They don't mean he'll need all five to finish the job.
Nolan has the talent. Moicano has the experience, the résumé, and the better answers when things get ugly.
Give me Money Moicano.
Pick: Renato "Money" Moicano
RANDY BROWN VS. JACOBE SMITH
Jacobe Smith is the real deal.
Three first-round knockouts in the UFC against Preston Parsons, Josiah Harrell, and Bruce Whitehead, plus a second-round submission of Niko Price. He's not just winning fights. He's running through people.
And the numbers are ridiculous.
Smith lands 90% of his takedowns and connects on 67% of his significant strikes. Nobody puts up percentages like that by accident. He's operating at a different level from the guys they've put in front of him.
Then there's Randy Brown.
On paper, Brown has everything you could possibly want in a welterweight. He's 6'3", has a 78-inch reach, moves well, and can absolutely strike. Against Smith, who's 5'10" with a 72-inch reach, that's a six-inch reach advantage.
Unfortunately, all those physical gifts are attached to a pea brain.
A smart Randy Brown uses his jab, circles away from the fence, and makes Smith pay every time he tries to close the distance.
The actual Randy Brown throws a beautiful combination, admires his own work, and then backs straight into the cage like it owes him money.
It's infuriating to watch.
And against somebody like Jacobe Smith, it's a death sentence.
Smith averages 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes. Brown averages 0.76. That's more than ten times the wrestling activity, and every time Brown puts his back against the fence, Smith is going to be attacking his hips.
Brown is riding a two-fight losing streak, while Smith has finished 85% of his career victories.
The only legitimate concern is the turnaround. This will be Smith's second fight in less than a month, and that's always worth considering. But he barely took any damage in the first one, so I'm not particularly worried.
Brown has the tools to make this competitive. Unfortunately, having the tools and knowing how to use them are two very different things.
Pick: Jacobe Smith by finish
ODE' OSBOURNE VS. CODY DURDEN
Before we discuss this fight, a reminder of the official Mentally on IR house rule:
We fade every fighter named Cody.
Cody Brundage. Cody Garbrandt. Cody Durden.
Doesn't matter. They all suck.
Now, in the interest of journalistic integrity, I should probably acknowledge that this is more of a Cody fade than an Ode endorsement.
Neither guy has exactly been lighting the world on fire, and the statistical models actually lean slightly toward Durden.
His wrestling out of American Top Team Atlanta is the primary reason. Durden completes 48% of his takedowns, while Osbourne defends 66%. If Durden can consistently get inside, clinch, and accumulate control time, he has a perfectly reasonable path to victory.
But where's the fun in that?
Osbourne has a six-inch reach advantage, 73 inches to 67, and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute, 3.2 compared with Durden's 3.9.
Durden's own takedown defense is just 56%, so it's not as though he's some unstoppable wrestling machine.
And then there's the chin.
Jose Ochoa knocked Durden into another dimension in 11 seconds back in June 2025. Eleven seconds. You barely have time to open your beer before the guy is staring at the ceiling.
Osbourne has legitimate power himself, as he demonstrated when he stopped Luis Gurule early in the second round.
As a southpaw who prefers fighting at range, Ode has the weapons to punish Durden's entries. Every time Cody lowers his head looking for a takedown, there's an opportunity for a knee or a straight left hand.
This also has the distinct smell of a loser-leaves-town fight.
Two struggling fighters, questionable durability, and one unfortunate first name.
You know the rules.
Pick: Ode' Osbourne
YANA SANTOS VS. LUANA SANTOS
Luana Santos is one of my favorites, and she just keeps getting better.
She's won three straight and six of her last seven dating back to August 2023. More importantly, she's developing into exactly the kind of fighter I love backing: a young grappler who knows what she's good at and keeps getting better at imposing it.
Her foundation is judo and top control.
Trips, throws, body locks, and once she gets you on the ground, congratulations, you've just purchased a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Octagon.
Luana averages 8:17 of control time per 15 minutes. Yana averages 4:26. That's almost double.
Her career takedown accuracy of 37% doesn't tell the whole story, either. Those numbers include her earlier UFC appearances, before her wrestling and clinch entries really started coming together.
Against Lisboa, she completed both takedown attempts and controlled nearly eight minutes of the fight. She's landed at least one takedown in each of her last four appearances, and in another recent victory she accumulated more than 12 minutes of control.
That's not a coincidence. That's development.
And this matchup looks tailor-made for her.
Yana is a legitimate volume striker, landing 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy. She's capable of winning exchanges at distance, and she deserves credit for that.
But her takedown defense sits at just 51%.
Luana, meanwhile, defends 85% of takedowns against her.
So Yana isn't likely to dictate where this fight takes place, and her biggest defensive weakness happens to be Luana's greatest strength.
All seven of Yana's UFC victories have gone to the scorecards, too. She's not exactly carrying some devastating one-punch equalizer that's going to rescue her when the grappling starts going sideways.
There's also the age difference.
Luana is 26. Yana is 36.
One is improving rapidly. The other is facing a younger, stronger grappler who wants to spend the entire fight attached to her.
I can see Yana having success early with her output. But once Luana gets into the clinch, the script becomes pretty straightforward.
Trip. Top control. Repeat.
By the third round, I expect Luana to be comfortably in charge.
Pick: Luana Santos
JEAN-PAUL LEBOSNOYANI VS. FARMAN HASANOV
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, or JPL, really impressed me in his last fight.
And that's saying something, because I was high on Seok Hyeon Ko coming into that matchup.
Ko hurt JPL with a left-hook counter, and instead of panicking, Lebosnoyani stayed composed. He defended Ko's judo throw, secured his own takedown, attacked a choke, and ultimately swept the scorecards 29-28.
That's the kind of performance that tells you something about a fighter.
It's one thing to look good when everything is going your way. It's another to get cracked, regroup, and show an entirely different layer of your game.
And that brings us to Hasanov.
He's an undefeated 6-0 wrestler out of American Top Team, with a Master of Sport designation in freestyle wrestling. The pedigree is legitimate.
In his debut against Eric Nolan, Hasanov was able to get his takedowns almost whenever he wanted.
The problem?
He couldn't keep Nolan down, and he didn't accomplish much from top position.
That's a pretty significant issue when your next opponent has been practicing jiu-jitsu since he was three years old.
JPL has five submission victories, three by triangle choke.
Think about that matchup for a second.
You've got a wrestler who can put people on their backs but struggles to control them, going against a lifelong grappler who specializes in attacking from his guard.
Every takedown Hasanov completes potentially puts him directly into JPL's submission game.
And if Hasanov decides he'd rather keep things standing, that's not exactly a comfortable alternative.
Lebosnoyani is the cleaner, more dangerous striker. His Contender Series knockout came from a head kick beautifully disguised behind his jab.
Hasanov is a talented prospect, but this is a nasty stylistic assignment for a wrestler whose top control still needs work.
I like JPL's versatility, composure, and ability to threaten from multiple positions.
Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
FRANCIS MARSHALL VS. DAKOTA HOPE
Here's one of my live underdogs on the card.
Dakota Hope.
And I'll acknowledge right away that this is a contrarian selection.
The models favor Francis Marshall. Marshall has won his last two UFC appearances, while Hope is still searching for his first Octagon victory.
Marshall also has a significant length advantage.
So why am I backing Hope?
Because I think there's more to his debut than the loss column suggests.
Hope stepped in on short notice, fought an extremely competitive fight, and lost a split decision in a bout that could easily have earned Fight of the Night honors.
One judge sees things differently, and we're talking about a 1-0 UFC fighter instead of a guy looking for his first win.
That's how thin the margins can be.
Hope is an aggressive, forward-pressure striker who throws volume and doesn't give opponents much breathing room.
He wants to get inside, force exchanges, and make the fight uncomfortable.
That's exactly the kind of approach that can cause problems for a longer fighter who wants space to operate.
Now, Marshall absolutely has a path here.
If he uses his reach, keeps Hope at the end of his punches, and mixes in his grappling, he can control this fight.
But if Hope closes the distance and turns it into a phone-booth brawl, suddenly that physical advantage becomes much less important.
Hope is stepping in on short notice again, which isn't ideal, but he's already shown he can perform under those circumstances.
He's got nothing to lose, everything to gain, and a style that can make this considerably uglier than the favorite would prefer.
Sometimes the right underdog isn't the better fighter on paper. It's the guy who can force the fight into the wrong kind of fight for his opponent.
Pick: Dakota Hope
RODRIGO SEZINANDO VS. THEODOR BERGGREN
Another plus-money lean.
I'm going with Theodor Berggren.
The 26-year-old Swede fights out of a switch stance and owns a two-inch height advantage and four-inch reach advantage over Rodrigo Sezinando.
His UFC record isn't particularly attractive, but context matters.
Berggren made his debut on short notice against Daniil Donchenko, the TUF 33 tournament winner, and was stopped in the second round.
That's a brutal assignment for your first appearance in the Octagon.
I'm not ready to write somebody off because he lost a difficult fight under less-than-ideal circumstances.
The biggest concern here is Sezinando's wrestling.
He averages more than three takedown attempts per 15 minutes, and Berggren's ability to defend those entries is going to determine whether this pick has any chance of cashing.
If Sezinando consistently gets him down, we're probably in trouble.
But if Berggren can keep the fight standing, I believe he's the better striker.
He has the length, the stance-switching, and the tools to make Sezinando work his way inside.
This time, Berggren also gets a full training camp instead of being thrown into the deep end on short notice.
I'm willing to give the Swede another shot.
Pick: Theodor Berggren
JULIAN EROSA VS. JEONG YEONG LEE
Ladies and gentlemen, we're witnessing the end of an era.
This is reportedly the final fight of Julian "Juicy J" Erosa's career.
Erosa says he's retiring regardless of the result and heading back to Washington to take over his mother's business.
And you know what? Good for him.
The man has spent years being one of the UFC's great agents of chaos. You never quite knew what you were getting with Juicy J, other than the distinct possibility that somebody was about to get knocked unconscious.
Respect to one of the great Apex chaos merchants.
As for the fight itself, Erosa is absolutely dangerous early.
Before his current two-fight losing streak, he won three straight fights, all inside the first round.
He lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute and has never been shy about turning a fight into a firefight.
Unfortunately, the chin has taken a tremendous amount of punishment.
Eight of his 13 career losses have come by knockout, and Lerryan Douglas stopped him in the first round last March.
At 37, those knockouts don't exactly become easier to recover from.
Jeong Yeong Lee brings legitimate finishing ability of his own.
He has four knockout victories and three submissions by armbar. He's also relocated his training camp to the United States following his losing streak, looking to make the necessary adjustments.
But Lee isn't without problems.
His cardio looked awful against Daniel Santos, and he's been out of action for approximately 18 months.
That's a long time to spend on the sidelines before returning against a guy who fights like he's late for an appointment.
Which is precisely why I like the under.
Erosa needs to make something happen early. Lee would be wise to do the same.
I don't see either fighter particularly interested in a patient, tactical three-round chess match.
Either Juicy J catches him early and rides off into retirement with one last spectacular finish, or Lee starts landing clean on a chin that has already absorbed far too much damage.
I'm leaning toward the latter.
Pick: Jeong Yeong Lee
Total: Under 2.5 rounds
NICK KLEIN VS. JOE KROPSCHOT
Joe Kropschot, better known as "The Land Animal," makes his UFC debut, and I like the matchup he's been handed.
Kropschot earned his contract by upsetting Jon Kunneman as a significant underdog.
What impressed me was how he did it.
Despite being a grappler at heart, Kropschot controlled much of that fight with his jab and front kicks, using his 79-inch reach to manage distance.
A guy who wants to grapple but can also keep you on the outside with competent striking is a difficult problem to solve.
Especially when you're Nick Klein.
Klein is 0-2 in the UFC, and both losses came by second-round stoppage.
He also hasn't fought in the Octagon in approximately a year.
Not exactly the kind of momentum you want heading into a matchup against a hungry newcomer.
Kropschot stands 6'3", compared with Klein at 6'1", and carries the longer reach.
More importantly, Klein likes to grapple.
Unfortunately for him, that means willingly engaging in the area where Kropschot is most comfortable.
So we've got a bigger, longer fighter with strong grappling credentials against an opponent who's been finished in both of his UFC appearances.
Could Klein surprise us? Sure.
But I'm not seeing a compelling reason to back him.
The Land Animal gets his first UFC victory, and I don't think he needs the judges.
Pick: Joe Kropschot by finish
Total: Under 2.5 rounds
TALITA ALENCAR VS. PIERA RODRIGUEZ
This is one of the clearest physical mismatches on the card.
Piera Rodriguez stands 5'3" with a 63-inch reach.
Talita Alencar is 5'1" with a 58-inch reach.
Five inches of reach at strawweight is enormous.
And the striking statistics only make the difference more apparent.
Rodriguez lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy.
Alencar lands 2.9 at 37%.
That's a considerable gap in both output and efficiency.
Alencar's biggest weapon is her submission game. She's dangerous on the ground and absolutely capable of capitalizing on a mistake.
The problem is getting the fight there.
Her takedown accuracy sits at just 26%, while Rodriguez defends 81% of takedown attempts.
Good luck consistently getting that fight to the mat.
And here's the kicker: Rodriguez averages 4.04 takedowns per 15 minutes herself.
So not only is she the longer, more effective striker, but she's also capable of dictating where the fight takes place.
That's a terrible combination for Alencar.
I don't see Rodriguez needing to do anything particularly spectacular here.
Use the length. Win the striking exchanges. Stuff the takedowns. Mix in her own wrestling when the opportunities present themselves.
One important note: all five of Rodriguez's UFC victories have gone to the scorecards.
I'm not going to force a finish prediction when her history tells us otherwise.
Sometimes a comfortable decision is perfectly acceptable.
Pick: Piera Rodriguez
ZACH REESE VS. MICKEY GALL
Zach Reese has lost two straight, but I think the matchup is considerably more favorable this time around.
His most recent defeat came against Ryan Gandra, and his UFC debut was against Cody Brundage.
Yes, Cody Brundage.
And before anybody asks, the Cody Curse remains in effect. We're not revisiting the constitution.
Mickey Gall, however, presents a much more manageable assignment.
Gall's recent situation has been a mess.
He was pulled from a fight against Sedriques Dumas last month because of a medical issue, meaning he's now going through a second training camp and second weight cut in a matter of weeks.
He's also returning from an extended layoff, and this will be his first appearance at middleweight.
That's a lot of uncertainty for a fighter who wasn't exactly setting the division on fire beforehand.
Reese has the physical advantage, standing 6'4" with a 77-inch reach compared with Gall's 6'2" and 74 inches.
The striking numbers are even more favorable.
Reese lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute and absorbs just 3.0.
Gall lands 3.5 and absorbs 4.7.
So Reese is the bigger fighter, lands more offense, and takes considerably less damage.
The grappling statistics don't offer Gall much comfort, either.
Reese completes 58% of his takedowns, while Gall's takedown defense sits at a miserable 37%.
Gall's best chance is probably finding a submission during a scramble, but even there, the numbers aren't overwhelmingly in his favor.
Gall averages 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared with Reese at 1.2.
That's not enough of a gap to make me overlook everything else.
Gall is dealing with a layoff, a new weight class, a disrupted schedule, and an opponent with meaningful physical advantages.
Too many red flags.
Pick: Zach Reese
LUCIA SZABOVĂ VS. TAINARA LISBOA
Let's get something out of the way.
Lisboa sucks.
Now, to be fair, she does have a legitimate combat sports background. She's a two-time Muay Thai world champion in Thailand, and nobody can take that away from her.
The problem is that her credentials haven't translated particularly well to MMA.
She went 0-2 in 2025, losing to Luana Santos by keylock and Melissa Croden by punches.
In one of those fights, she surrendered a takedown in every round and spent nearly eight minutes stuck on her back.
That's not exactly encouraging when you're about to face somebody with legitimate judo credentials.
Lisboa is also 35, and I don't see some dramatic late-career transformation coming.
Meanwhile, Lucia SzabovĂĄ looks like the real deal.
She's undefeated, a former two-division OKTAGON champion, and has already defended a championship against UFC veteran Lucie Pudilova.
That's meaningful experience against legitimate competition.
SzabovĂĄ comes from a Muay Thai and judo background, giving her the tools to compete with Lisboa on the feet and take the fight to the ground whenever the opportunity presents itself.
And unlike Lisboa, she's shown that she can put everything together in MMA.
In April, SzabovĂĄ stopped Leidiane Fernandes in the third round after landing an incredible 143 significant strikes.
That's an absurd amount of offense.
She's younger, more versatile, and entering this fight with considerably more momentum.
Lisboa's Muay Thai pedigree might keep her competitive early, but I expect SzabovĂĄ to take over as the fight progresses.
The striking volume will add up, the grappling advantage will become apparent, and eventually Lisboa is going to run out of answers.
I don't think this one reaches the scorecards.
Pick: Lucia SzabovĂĄ by finish
FINAL THOUGHTS: TRICK OR TREAT?
Halloween at the Apex. Twelve fights, a handful of underdogs, some intriguing prospects, and the final appearance of one of the UFC's great chaos merchants.
What could possibly go wrong?
The main event is the fight I'm most interested in. Tom Nolan has looked impressive against the competition put in front of him, but Renato Moicano represents a completely different challenge. This is Nolan's biggest test by a mile, while Money Moicano gets a step down from the elite competition he's been facing.
And while the five-round format favors the veteran, don't be surprised if Moicano gets the job done well before the championship rounds.
Jacobe Smith and Luana Santos are two fighters I feel particularly good about. Both have clear paths to victory, and neither needs to reinvent the wheel to get there.
Dakota Hope and Theodor Berggren are my underdog swings. They're not without risk, but that's generally why we're getting plus money in the first place.
And then there's Ode' Osbourne.
Is that the most statistically sound pick on the card? Absolutely not.
But some traditions are bigger than statistics.
We're fading Cody Durden because his parents named him Cody, and that's the kind of hard-hitting analysis you've come to expect around here.
Enjoy the fights, try not to let one bad parlay ruin your Halloween, and remember that nothing is truly safe when Julian Erosa steps into an Octagon.
Happy Halloween. Fade the Codys.
