CFB Week 9 Picks: Halloween Horrors & the Costanza Special 🎃

CFB Week 9 Preview: Halloween Edition 🎃

It’s Halloween weekend. Grown men in face paint, kids begging strangers for candy, and me begging a 19-year-old kicker to miss a field goal so I can cover. Same energy.

Eight plays this week. Four dogs, two unders, one favorite I’m nervous about, and one Costanza special. Some of these numbers are downright terrifying, but that’s what Halloween is for.

Let’s get spooky.

Florida +11.5 vs. Georgia (Atlanta)

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is now the World’s Largest Indoor Cocktail Party with a $17 beer. The game moved to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta this year while Jacksonville’s stadium gets renovated. Rough for the Jacksonville RV crowd, great for anyone who enjoys air conditioning.

Let’s be honest about Georgia. Kirby Smart is going for his sixth straight win in this series. The Bulldogs own this rivalry like a landlord owns your security deposit.

But 11.5 points in a rivalry game with a split crowd and two weeks of hype? That’s a lot of points.

There was buzz all offseason that Florida could shock some people under Jon Sumrall, and Georgia’s road schedule includes trips to Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. That makes this a sneaky trap spot sitting right in the middle of a gauntlet.

Now, the red flag. South Carolina walked into Gainesville earlier this month and beat Florida 38-19. So yes, this Gator team is perfectly capable of getting punched in the mouth.

But we’re talking about No. 3 vs. No. 17. A ranked team getting double digits, plus the hook past 10 and 11, in a rivalry game? I’ll take the points and say a little prayer to the Swamp gods.

Georgia probably wins. Covering is a different story.

The Pick: Florida +11.5

Minnesota +21 at Indiana

College GameDay is in Bloomington, which still sounds like a sentence from a fever dream.

Indiana is the defending national champion, and Curt Cignetti’s guys are rolling again. Josh Hoover has 18 touchdown passes, tied for ninth nationally, with an 84.6 QBR.

Nobody is arguing that Indiana isn’t the better football team. I’m arguing about the number.

Here’s the math that makes me want to row the boat with P.J. Fleck.

The total is 41.5. If this game lands somewhere around 42 points and Indiana has to win by 22, you’re looking at something like 32-10. That’s a full-blown beatdown with absolutely zero garbage-time drama.

Minnesota plays the slowest, grindiest, most “let’s run it on 3rd-and-9” football in America. They’re coming off a 13-10 game, and frankly, that’s their love language.

Fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for Indiana to stack touchdowns. It’s not complicated.

Now, the honest edge check. One model projects Indiana winning 32-11, which lands right on the number. Indiana’s 9.4 yards per pass attempt also dwarfs Minnesota’s 6.7. There’s a very real talent gap here.

But this isn’t a bet on Minnesota being better. It’s a bet on how the game unfolds.

GameDay crowd, massive spread, low total, and an opponent that wants to shorten the game until everyone in the stadium falls asleep.

I’ll take three touchdowns and hope Fleck remembers how to run a clock.

The Pick: Minnesota +21

BYU vs. Arizona State: Under 49

BYU is fresh off a heartbreaker, a 39-31 double-overtime loss at UCF.

Overtime points inflate a final score like a fantasy football waiver claim inflates your ego. People see 70 combined points and immediately start thinking shootout.

I see a BYU defense that was choking people out before that game.

The Cougars allow just 18.6 points per game. At home this month, they beat Iowa State 24-10 and Notre Dame 28-24. This is a defense that can control a football game.

Arizona State throws for 267 yards per game, but the Sun Devils also allow 29.9 points per contest. So yes, there’s some over risk here. ASU got absolutely torched 55-19 by Baylor and 53-25 at Texas Tech.

But BYU doesn’t play like Baylor or Texas Tech.

The Cougars are laying 15.5 at home, and big favorites with good defenses generally have a pretty simple formula. Get up two scores, establish the run, and let the clock eat.

Kalani Sitake isn’t going to suddenly turn into Mike Leach just to embarrass Arizona State.

Provo in late October, a pissed-off home defense, and a game script that should turn into a second-half nap.

Give me punts, running clocks, and a whole lot of absolutely nothing.

The Pick: Under 49

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Utah

Utah is undefeated, ranked No. 6 in the country, and beat Cincinnati 45-14 last season.

I’m aware. Thank you.

But this is a different Cincinnati team playing at a very different address.

The Bearcats are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, including last week’s upset of Texas Tech. They also knocked off Kansas State 31-26 as 6.5-point underdogs.

Nippert Stadium is turning into a home-dog factory, and I want a piece of it.

Now look at Utah’s last game. A 21-13 win over Houston. That’s an undefeated team that might be coasting a little.

Even more interesting, Utah surrendered three pass plays of 40-plus yards on just 35 attempts last week, the worst rate in the Big 12. Cincinnati averages 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

That’s a matchup the Bearcats can exploit.

Of course, Utah’s resume is no joke. They’ve covered nine of their last 12 games and have allowed scores on only 4% of opposing first-quarter drives, the best mark in the country.

So there’s a legitimate chance Cincinnati falls behind early and I’m staring at my television wondering why I do this to myself.

But that hook at 7.5 is beautiful.

Undefeated team on the road, a home underdog with momentum, and a spread that gives us more than a touchdown to work with.

I like Cincinnati hanging around and making this a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: Cincinnati +7.5

South Carolina vs. Oklahoma: Under 44.5

Last year these two teams played, and Oklahoma won 26-7.

Thirty-three total points.

This year’s Sooners might somehow be even more allergic to scoring.

Oklahoma averages 21.6 points per game and allows just 17.7. Their recent offensive masterpieces include 23 at Mississippi State, 13 against Kentucky, 27 against Texas, and 13 at Georgia.

That’s an offense that punts like it’s getting paid by the yard.

The Sooners average just 3.1 yards per carry. Brent Venables wants a rock fight, and unfortunately for anyone who enjoys entertaining football, he’s pretty good at getting one.

Now, South Carolina does bring some danger to this under.

The Gamecocks lost 35-34 to Kentucky and 41-34 to Mississippi State, and they’re averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If they start ripping off explosive runs, this could get uncomfortable in a hurry.

One model projects Oklahoma winning 26-19, which lands right on top of our number. So no, I’m not pretending this is free money.

But in Norman, against a defense allowing fewer than 18 points per game and an offense that can’t run the football, I’m expecting a whole lot of punts and field goals.

This is the game you watch at 4:15 with a bowl of candy corn, actively rooting for third-and-long.

Nothing says Halloween like celebrating a six-yard completion on 3rd-and-12.

The Pick: Under 44.5

Ohio State -6.5 at USC

This is the scariest pick on the entire card, which seems appropriate for Halloween.

Julian Sayin is out indefinitely, and Ohio State is preparing for the possibility that he misses the rest of the season. Ryan Day still hasn’t named a starter between freshman Luke Fahey and sophomore Tavien St. Clair.

Fahey’s last appearance? An 0-for-2 passing performance featuring an intentional grounding penalty and a 10-yard sack at Indiana.

That’s not a debut. That’s a blooper reel.

So naturally, I’m laying almost a touchdown with Ohio State on the road.

What could possibly go wrong?

First, the Buckeye roster is still the Buckeye roster. The plan is to lean heavily on an elite secondary and Jeremiah Smith, and when your WR1 is a future top draft pick, the offensive game plan can be as simple as “throw it somewhere in his zip code.”

Fahey also brings some mobility and the ability to extend plays. And for the Mission Viejo kid, this would be a homecoming.

Then there’s USC.

The Trojans are 2-6 against the spread this season. That’s a team that disappoints you like a full-size Snickers that turns out to be fun-size.

But here’s what worries me.

USC’s season, and possibly its coach’s job, is riding on this game. Desperate teams at home can be dangerous, especially against a favorite dealing with major quarterback uncertainty.

The line opened at seven and has drifted down, so the market isn’t exactly lining up to crown the Buckeyes either.

Still, I’m trusting Ohio State’s defense, overall talent advantage, and Jeremiah Smith to do enough against a USC team that has made a habit of disappointing people.

Do I love laying 6.5 with a quarterback situation that looks like a preseason depth chart?

Absolutely not.

Am I doing it anyway?

Unfortunately, yes.

The Pick: Ohio State -6.5

Fresno State +6.5 vs. Oregon State

The nightcap.

Kickoff is 11 p.m. ET, which means I’ll be sitting on the couch at 1:30 in the morning, eating my kids’ leftover Kit Kats and screaming at a Mountain West punter.

Living the dream.

Here’s what I like about Fresno State. The Bulldogs aren’t getting blown out.

Their two losses were 38-31 to Boise State and 26-23 at San Diego State. That’s a team losing competitive football games, not a team that’s completely cooked.

They also went into Pullman and beat Washington State 26-6.

Now they get Oregon State at home, late at night, with a crowd that loves the opportunity to knock off a recognizable Pac-12 name.

Oregon State is playing good football, riding a four-game winning streak, so I’m not going to pretend the Beavers are walking into some automatic loss.

But one model projects Oregon State winning 31-25 and gives Fresno a 53% chance of covering +6.5.

That’s exactly the kind of game I’m looking for.

Home underdog, two recent close losses, late kickoff, and nearly a touchdown of breathing room.

I don’t need Fresno to win. I just need them to hang around.

And preferably not make me stay awake until 2:30 a.m. for a backdoor cover that never comes.

The Pick: Fresno State +6.5

AND NOW, THE MAIN EVENT…

Oregon -3 vs. Northwestern: COSTANZA PICK OF THE WEEK 🥨

Seven plays down, and they were all the undercard.

Now it’s time for the one we all came for.

Dim the lights. Cue the Seinfeld bass riff.

If you told me back in August that I’d be choosing between a three-loss Oregon team and a ranked Northwestern, I’d have called the authorities.

But here we are.

Oregon entered the season ranked No. 2 in the country and now looks like a team that lost its car keys.

Look at the recent results.

Lost 21-10 at Illinois.

Beat Nebraska 17-14.

Lost 17-15 to UCLA.

That’s 10, 17, and 15 points in their last three games.

That’s not Oregon football. That’s 2009 Iowa.

Meanwhile, Northwestern is actually good.

The Wildcats smacked Penn State 34-13 and lost by just six at Indiana. They’re averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt compared to Oregon’s 7.5.

Everything about this matchup screams Northwestern.

The recent form. The offensive production. The points.

Every instinct in my body tells me to take the Wildcats.

Everybody I know is on Northwestern.

So naturally, George Costanza and I are doing the exact opposite.

We’re laying three with Oregon.

Now, before somebody calls for a wellness check, there is an actual football argument here.

This is Northwestern’s first trip ever to Autzen Stadium, and it happens to be Oregon’s homecoming game.

First trip to one of the loudest stadiums on the West Coast, two time zones away from home, against a team with significantly more talent on paper.

Oregon has been embarrassed lately. And sometimes, when a talented team gets punched in the mouth enough times, it finally decides to punch back.

One model projects Oregon winning 30-21 and gives the Ducks a 62% chance to cover.

Do I trust that model?

Not particularly.

Do I trust Oregon’s offense after watching it spend three straight weeks impersonating a Big Ten team from 2009?

Absolutely not.

But that’s the beauty of the Costanza Pick of the Week.

We don’t need confidence. We don’t need logic. We need every instinct we’ve ever had to be wrong, and then we do the opposite.

As George once said, “My father was a quitter, my grandfather was a quitter, I was raised to give up.”

Not this week, George.

Not this week.

COSTANZA PICK OF THE WEEK: Oregon -3 🥨

THE CARD 🎃

Florida +11.5 vs. Georgia

Minnesota +21 at Indiana

BYU / Arizona State Under 49

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Utah

South Carolina / Oklahoma Under 44.5

Ohio State -6.5 at USC

Fresno State +6.5 vs. Oregon State

Oregon -3 vs. Northwestern (Costanza Pick of the Week 🥨)

Happy Halloween, everybody.

Eight plays, a whole lot of underdogs, two games where we’re actively rooting against touchdowns, and a Costanza pick that goes against just about every reasonable football instinct I have.

What could possibly go wrong?

The only thing scarier than these spreads is my bankroll after a backdoor cover.

Good luck this weekend. And if you see a grown man screaming at his television because a 19-year-old kicker made a meaningless field goal with 14 seconds left, mind your business.

He’s going through something.