Future Stars Friday: Breeders’ Cup Picks (If Anybody Actually Gets to Run)
Before we get into it, a quick disclaimer: there’s a decent chance half the horses I’m about to talk about won’t even make it to the gate.
Last year at Del Mar, the vets scratched 13 horses from the Breeders’ Cup cards and everyone lost their minds. This year, they’ve already scratched 25, nearly double, and they haven’t even loaded the gate for the first race. Keeneland’s regulatory team scratched nearly 5% of entries at the spring meet, so they’re clearly in midseason form.
I spent the week handicapping these races. The state vets spent the week deciding which of my horses actually get to run.
Leading the charge is head vet Nick Smith, who’s scratching horses like he gets paid by the head. Smith patrols the backstretch in an Indiana Jones hat, which makes sense, because he treats every barn visit like he’s searching for a lost artifact. Unfortunately, the only thing he keeps digging up is another reason to scratch your horse.
At this point, somebody needs to get the man a desk job. Give him a corner office, a stapler, a nice view of the parking lot, and a hook for the fedora. Anywhere he can’t get within flexion-test distance of a Grade 1 horse.
I could go on and on breaking down pace scenarios, trip trouble, and who’s sitting on a big effort, but what’s the point when these races inevitably get scratched down to three-horse fields? At this rate, the Juvenile is going to be a match race and the trifecta will pay even money.
So I’ll keep it tight. Consider this a list of horses I like, pending regulatory approval. If your pick gets scratched in the post parade, don’t email me. Email Nick.
With that out of the way, let’s get into the races.
R6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
This is a tricky race with all the European invaders, and I think the Americans are holding a pretty weak hand in this year’s running of the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Brickyard Belle is the best America has to offer, and while she can absolutely win this race, I think the value lies elsewhere.
The #6 Velozee is very interesting to me. I think she’ll appreciate the firmer ground stateside, and I love the turnback to 5.5 furlongs. Everything about this spot looks like it should suit her.
The other European invader who has my attention is the #9 Final Objective. Another one who should find 5.5 furlongs hits him right between the eyes. He’s a nicely progressing 2-year-old who looks like he’s sitting on a career-best effort.
I’m siding with the Euros here. I just don’t think the American contingent is anything special, and the prices make the overseas runners even more appealing.
Selections: 9-6-4-3
R7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
This might be my favorite race of the entire weekend, and it’s another one where I think the favorites are vulnerable.
I really like the #3 Foxiest.
The Gun Runner filly is out of a former Breeders’ Cup winner and an absolute freak show. She got the job done at second asking last time out, and everything about her screams two turns.
Jumping into the deep end of the pool off a maiden victory isn’t exactly a Brad Cox move. The fact that he’s doing it with this filly is a pretty big tip of the hand he’s been dealt. You don’t take a shot like this unless you think you’ve got something special.
Underneath, #8 Maunka Honey is an absolute must-include, especially at a ridiculous 10-1. She’s never done anything wrong in her career, keeps improving with every start, and deserves a hell of a lot more respect than that morning line suggests. She’s a serious player in this field.
The #10 Emphatic, the morning-line favorite, is difficult to knock based on her body of work. She’s done everything asked of her. I just don’t believe she’s that much better than the 3 and 8, certainly not at a much, much shorter price.
Same goes for Miss Monica.
California racing has gone to shit. She’s beaten absolutely nothing, and I don’t see any reason to believe she’s better than the first three horses I mentioned. I’m not paying a premium for a horse just because she spent the summer beating up on the same mediocre California competition.
A couple of bombs worth mentioning for underneath in your trifectas and superfectas are the #11 Voyager and #12 Life Changing. Both are worth keeping around if you’re trying to turn a decent opinion into a serious score.
This is a race where I’m more than happy to take a stand against the chalk.
Selections: 3-8-10-11
R8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Sun Goddess is supposed to be the second coming, and based on what we’ve seen, it’s pretty difficult to argue otherwise.
She looks awfully tough to beat on paper, and when Aidan O’Brien says this is his best chance of the weekend, I’m inclined to listen. The man knows a thing or two about bringing European turf horses over here and taking American money.
She’s going to be short. There’s no getting around that.
But not every race needs to be an exercise in finding a vulnerable favorite. Sometimes the best horse is just the best horse, and there’s no reason to get cute.
Sun Goddess looks like a single to me.
Selections: 9-10-6-3-2
R9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
I don’t like Hughes, the even-money morning-line favorite, for the exact same reasons I don’t like Miss Monica.
The California prep races suck.
Yes, Hughes is a perfect 4-for-4, winning those races by a combined 24½ lengths. He’s got the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah on his résumé, and on paper, he looks like a monster.
But let’s look at who he’s actually beaten.
He’s spent four races beating up on the same mediocre horses, and now I’m supposed to take even money against a completely different level of competition? No thanks.
I really like Coach Pope in this spot.
I thought the Breeders’ Futurity was the deepest prep race coming into this year’s Juvenile, and history certainly backs up its importance. Essential Quality, Forte, and Ted Noffey all used that race as a springboard to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile glory.
And in my opinion, Coach Pope ran the best race in this year’s edition.
Coming back just three weeks after a 12½-length maiden romp, he got hooked in an absolute ding-dong suicide pace duel with Q B Rocket.
The fractions tell the story: :23.52, :46.54, and 1:10.52.
Those two were going at each other from the jump, and the whole thing set up perfectly for American History to come flying from last and pick up the pieces.
That’s horse racing. Sometimes the best horse doesn’t win. Sometimes the horse who gets the perfect trip does.
I came away from that race more impressed with Coach Pope than the winner, and I think he’s sitting on a big effort here.
Those two are really the only horses I can see winning this race.
Maybe the #3 Salahudin deserves a look, but he’s going to be coming from off the pace, and that running style doesn’t always play particularly kindly at Keeneland.
I’m taking my chances against Hughes. If he beats me, he beats me. I’m not swallowing even money on a California horse who’s spent his entire career beating up on the junior varsity.
Selections: 7-6-3-1
R10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
I love Folsom Blues in this spot.
Great Barrier Reef is rumored to be the next horse on the state vets’ hit list, and those clueless assholes are undefeated once you’re on their radar.
At this point, you almost have to handicap the veterinarians as much as the horses.
As for the race itself, I don’t think the American contingent is anything special, and you’re not getting nearly enough value on them to make up for it.
I’ll take my chances with Folsom Blues against this group. He’s the horse I want to be alive to in the finale, assuming the regulatory committee allows us to have a finale.
Selections: 10-3-2-5
Wrapping Up Friday
That’s the Future Stars card.
If you’re keeping score at home, I’m against the California chalk, leaning on the Europeans in the turf sprints, and taking a swing with Foxiest and Coach Pope on the dirt.
Sun Goddess is the one favorite I’m not interested in fighting, because sometimes you just let Aidan cook.
The best advice I can give you this weekend has absolutely nothing to do with speed figures, pace projections, or trip handicapping.
Check the scratches before you bet. Then check them again. Then check them one more time in the post parade.
Build your tickets with a little extra coverage, because the horse you single in the morning might be on a trailer back to the barn by lunch.
Saturday’s card is coming next, with the big boys in the Classic, the Turf, and everything else.
Assuming Indiana Smith leaves us enough horses to fill a starting gate, I’ll see you there.
