Breeders' Cup Saturday Preview: Bigger Pools, Bigger Prices, Same Old Bullshit
Breeders' Cup Saturday. For the tourists, it's the one day a year they crack open a program and bet their birthday numbers. For the rest of us, it's another day at the office, just with bigger fields, bigger pools, and a whole lot more dead money floating around.
Same process, same handicapping, same refusal to take a short price on a horse I don't trust. Keeneland is hosting, and there's value all over this card if you know where to look.
Fair warning: These picks were made as of Friday night, and Nick Smith and his team of idiot vets will probably scratch another 15 horses by the time I wake up Saturday morning. At this point, I'm half expecting them to scratch the outriders. Check the changes before you bet.
Let's go to work.
R4: BC Filly & Mare Sprint
I like Sweet Azteca in this spot. She's probably 3/5 to get scratched by the state vets based on her history, but it feels like they've been keeping a lid on her to have her at 110% for this spot after she got scratched on Breeders' Cup morning last year.
Her best races are the best in this field. At 8/1, I'm willing to take my chances, assuming Nick Smith lets her leave the barn without a permission slip.
I have a hard time trusting Ways N Means when she hits the road and leaves the state of New York. By no means can you toss her, but I don't trust her as a single, especially at a very short price. She's the kind of horse who can make you look like an idiot for betting against her or an even bigger idiot for taking 4/5.
Foie Gras ran a massive race at Charles Town on CT Classic night and comes in with plenty of rest. But seven furlongs at Charles Town is two turns, which is a completely different ball game. She was also able to run on Lasix there, another factor worth considering.
Sweet Azteca is the price I'm interested in. If she's anywhere near her best, she can win this race. The biggest obstacle might be getting past the veterinarian with the clipboard.
Selections: 9-2-7-11
R5: BC Turf Sprint
This is a really tough race, perhaps the toughest of the entire two days.
There's a ton of speed in here, and since we're not in the state of New York, there may actually be a speed duel and someone might be allowed to win from the clouds. Imagine that. Horses actually competing for the lead instead of everyone politely taking turns.
Bacio looks like a weak favorite to me. He's 6-for-6, I know. But he figures to be a big part of what should be a hot pace, and these horses for Wesley don't always come back from England in the same form they left in. At 5/2, I'm not exactly running to the window to back him. Six-for-six looks beautiful on paper, but they don't hand out Breeders' Cup trophies for having a pretty résumé.
Comanche Brave is the horse to beat, in my opinion. He's handy enough to be wherever you want him, I love the 5.5-furlong distance for him, and I think he'll appreciate the firmer American turf course. He checks a lot of boxes in a race where plenty of others come with questions.
Cy Fair is another one who just didn't seem to care for the course and distance in her last start. That 6.5-furlong configuration at Kentucky Downs is really more of a miler's type of course with all those hills. I think Cy Fair is purely a 5.5-furlong horse, and she loves having a target to run at. She's certainly going to get that here. There should be enough speed in front of her to create a traffic jam on the Long Island Expressway.
Then there's Yellow Card, who's practically a pet of mine at this point. I've done really well with this horse in the past, and he owes me absolutely nothing. He's a cool horse who always comes with a run. I'm not convinced he's good enough to win a race like this, but if the pace melts down the way I expect, he can absolutely get a piece.
This is a race where I want coverage. Plenty of it. If you find yourself singling a short-priced favorite in this field, you might want to have your head examined.
Selections: 7-10-1-6
R6: BC Dirt Mile
I think Further Ado is a single in here.
I love the rail draw, he obviously loves this track, and he's working super coming into this race. More importantly, I absolutely love the Pennsylvania Derby as a prep for the Dirt Mile.
I'm not convinced this horse really wants to go a mile and a quarter, and Brad Cox recognizing that and pointing him here instead is just another example of why he's one of the very best in the business.
Everything about this spot makes sense to me. The distance, the track, the post, the preparation. I don't need to manufacture reasons to beat a horse when I think the right horse is staring me in the face.
For once, I'm not going to overcomplicate something. This is horse racing, so naturally that probably means he'll stumble out of the gate and finish fifth.
Selections: 1-5-10-3
R7: BC Filly & Mare Turf
This is another very tough running of the Filly & Mare Turf, and I actually think the Americans hold a stronger hand than they usually do in this race.
Kathynmarissa has turned into an absolute monster since making the move to the Chad Brown barn. Whatever they've figured out with this filly, it's working, and she's become a serious player at this level.
Precise and Blue Bolt are obviously very strong contenders as well, and I consider both must-uses on my tickets.
There's enough quality in this field that I don't see much reason to get married to one horse. The Americans are legitimate, the international runners demand respect, and this feels like the kind of race where getting too cute can send you home early.
Chad Brown showing up with a monster in a turf race is about as surprising as finding a $19 beer at the Breeders' Cup.
Selections: 5-11-12-14
R8: BC Sprint
Obviously, Englishman is the horse to beat.
He's been sensational for Cherie DeVaux, and on his best day, he's probably the most brilliant horse running at Keeneland this entire weekend.
But there's just something about him that doesn't pass the sniff test.
Should he have opted for the Dirt Mile? Is he physically at his best for this start? This is the first time he's really going to be tested at a true sprint distance, and I have questions about how everything sets up for him.
The horses who finished behind him in the Allen Jerkens have come back to throw absolute stinkers. Was it just chasing Englishman that took so much out of them? Maybe. But it's another thing I can't completely ignore.
I have a lot of questions and not nearly enough answers. Basically, I'm handicapping this horse like a detective investigating a murder where everybody has an alibi and nobody has a motive.
I think you're crazy to leave him off your tickets entirely because his talent is undeniable. But something about this spot just doesn't sit right with me, especially if you're being asked to take a short price.
Then there's T O Elvis, who hasn't been seen since the Derby Day CAW scandal.
Nobody on planet Earth could've beaten Elvis that day. Nobody.
My problem is simple: Where the hell has he been since May? Why no prep race? Why are we showing up in the Breeders' Cup Sprint off that kind of layoff?
Another horse with a ton of questions, and somehow even fewer answers than Englishman.
This is one of those races where the two most obvious horses might be the two I'm most uncomfortable trusting. Wonderful. Exactly what you want when you're trying to stay alive in a Pick 5.
R9: BC Turf Mile
I've always been a huge fan of Deterministic. I just think he's better going a little bit farther.
Notable Speech is 7/5 on the morning line, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's closer to even money or 4/5 by post time. He certainly looks like the horse to beat, but you're not exactly discovering buried treasure by landing on him.
Brilliant Berti keeps burning my money. At this point, I should probably be listed as a minority owner considering how much I've invested in his career. But they hung him at 30/1, and that price may be too tempting to pass up again. Some people never learn. I'm some people.
The last horse I'll mention is the #5, Ask Ikigomi. He's a lightly raced 3-year-old coming off a layoff, and these are exactly the types of horses who can come back and fire a career-best effort when everyone else is focused on the obvious contenders.
If he takes that next step forward, he belongs right there with anybody in this field.
Notable Speech is the logical horse, but there's enough going on underneath to make this race interesting from a wagering standpoint. And yes, I'll probably find a way to lose more money on Brilliant Berti.
Selections: 8-5-1-13
R10: BC Distaff
This race has been absolutely decimated by scratches.
I really liked Splendora in this spot. Gone.
Scottish Lassie was an intriguing 15/1 shot. Gone.
At this rate, I'm surprised they haven't scratched the starting gate.
I was against Nitrogen coming into this race, but now she may just have things her own way on the front end and walk around the track. That's what happens when half the horses you wanted to bet against suddenly disappear.
Still, I just don't like what I've seen from her in her final prep. The Whitney was a reverse burial effort, and I have a hard time getting excited about taking a short price on a horse whose preparation didn't impress me.
I guess that leaves me on Fully Subscribed.
Not exactly the kind of ringing endorsement you'd expect in a Breeders' Cup preview, but that's where we are. Sometimes handicapping is about finding the horse you love. Other times it's about finding the last horse standing after the veterinarians finish their morning rounds.
Selections: 4-7-2
R11: BC Turf
I'm willing to completely forgive the poor effort from Burnham Square at Kentucky Downs last time.
That course is such a niche animal that when a horse runs a race that's completely out of whack, for better or worse, I have no problem drawing a line straight through it. Kentucky Downs is basically horse racing on a golf course designed by somebody who hates horses.
Johana Walsh is very intriguing to me as well. Along with Diamond Necklace and Bay City Roller, those are the Europeans to beat in this field.
The ladies hold a particularly strong hand here, and they're obviously taking on the boys because of distance preference. They're getting anywhere from three to seven pounds depending on age, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see one of them win.
I think that's a legitimate angle in this race, and one worth paying attention to when putting tickets together.
The international runners deserve plenty of respect, but I'm not throwing Burnham Square in the garbage because of one race at a course that looks like it was designed by a drunk landscaper.
Selections: 12-13-9-6
R12: BC Classic
And now we arrive at the main event.
Magnitude is out, and that's a bad scratch for me. Not because I wanted to bet him. I wanted absolutely nothing to do with him. But he figured to play a major role in the pace, and his absence changes the entire complexion of this race.
You know how I feel about Golden Tempo. Not a fan, to say the least.
I think The Puma is a far more talented horse, and I like him significantly better in this spot than Golden Tempo. If those two were standing next to each other in the paddock, I'd need someone to explain to me why I'm supposed to prefer Golden Tempo.
This is a wide-open Classic. I can legitimately make a case for just about anybody winning besides T O Password and Golden Tempo. Naturally, now that I've said that, one of them will probably win by six lengths and I'll have to move to another country.
Napoleon Solo needs to improve a ton, but he's probably the biggest beneficiary of the Magnitude scratch. With one of the major pace players gone, the entire race becomes a different proposition for him.
Then there's Bill Mott.
Mott holds a strong hand in this race. Or does he?
Running both Godolphin horses could actually be a sign of weakness. It's an interesting situation, and one that makes me wonder just how confident the barn really is.
I want to poke holes in Sovereignty. Believe me, I do. But Junior Alvarado sticks with him over Knightsbridge, and that tells me something.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with Luis Saez. In fact, I actually prefer him to Junior Alvarado. But you'd have to think Junior had his pick of the two, and he chose Sovereignty. That's not something I'm willing to completely dismiss.
Now, I know Sovereignty is a mediocre work horse in the mornings, so I can't really knock his works for being visually unimpressive. Some horses look like Secretariat at 6 a.m. and run like a refrigerator at 5 p.m. Others look like they're out for a casual Sunday stroll and turn into monsters when the gates open.
Sovereignty has never needed to impress anybody in the morning.
I keep going around in circles with this race.
The pace changed with Magnitude coming out. The favorites have questions. The Mott situation is interesting. The Puma has talent. Forever Young is obviously a major player.
I don't really know what the hell to make of it.
And after all that handicapping, all those replays, all that thinking, and all that time spent trying to outsmart the betting public, I guess that leaves me with Forever Young and The Puma.
Beautiful, isn't it? Hours of work just to arrive at "I guess."
That's horse racing.
Selections: 5-4-7-2
Final Thoughts
That's the card. I've poked holes in half the favorites, questioned a Hall of Fame trainer, and built my Classic ticket around "I guess that leaves me with," which is still a stronger opinion than most of the people betting this race have.
The Breeders' Cup is where everyone suddenly becomes a horse racing expert. Your uncle who hasn't watched a race since the Kentucky Derby has a $200 exacta box, your neighbor likes a horse because of its name, and some guy at the OTB is explaining why a 3/5 shot is the lock of the century.
God bless them all. We need their money in the pools.
There are some vulnerable favorites on this card, some very live prices, and a Classic that could make a genius out of just about anybody. I'm not interested in being right about every race. I'm interested in getting paid when I am.
And hopefully, by the time the first race goes off, Nick Smith and his merry band of veterinarians will have left enough horses in the fields for us to actually have a Breeders' Cup.
Let the tourists hammer the chalk. We'll take the prices.
Bet with your head and not over it, and if Golden Tempo wins the Classic, I don't want to hear about it. Not a word. I'll be unavailable for comment.
Good luck, everybody. Let's cash some tickets.
