CFB WEEK 10 PREVIEW: THE SATURDAY WHERE NOBODY GETS TO HIDE
Six top-25 games, the first College Football Playoff rankings that already have half the country filing complaints, and a betting board full of numbers that look like the sportsbooks were guessing just as much as the rest of us.
November football is here. The excuses are running out, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and every team still pretending to be a contender is about to find out whether it actually belongs.
Nine plays on the card. Favorites, dogs, a couple of unders, and enough questionable quarterback situations to make an offensive coordinator consider a career in real estate.
Letās get into it.
MIAMI at NOTRE DAME | Irish -6.5
This number was sitting around 4.5 to 5 until Wednesday, when Miamiās best player decided to turn an ankle in practice. Malachi Toney hasnāt officially been ruled out, but heās still being evaluated, and this isnāt some replaceable receiver weāre talking about.
Toney isnāt just Miamiās WR1. Heās the entire damn engine.
The numbers are ridiculous: 73 receptions, 1,027 yards, and 13 touchdowns. That accounts for 35.1% of Miamiās receptions, 38.6% of its receiving yards, and 46.4% of its receiving touchdowns. Nearly half the teamās receiving touchdowns belong to one guy.
Take him away, or even limit what he can do, and the entire offense changes.
Notre Dame can start cheating a safety into the box against a Miami rushing attack that ranks 10th nationally at 5.49 yards per carry. Thatās a dangerous luxury to give a defense, especially at home.
On the other side, the Irish passing game gets a favorable matchup. Miamiās secondary ranks 81st nationally in opposing passer rating, and CJ Carr is more than capable of exploiting it.
Yes, weāre paying a premium for the injury news at 6.5. I get it. Nobody loves showing up late to a party after the line has already moved.
But a limited Toney is essentially a decoy, and Miami hasnāt been tested like this all season.
A revenge game in South Bend, a top-ranked opponent potentially missing its most important offensive weapon, and an Irish team with every reason to make a statement.
Iāll lay it.
PICK: Notre Dame -6.5
PENN STATE at WASHINGTON | Nittany Lions +3
Matt Campbellās first season at Penn State has been a rollercoaster with no seatbelts, but this is exactly the kind of buy-low spot I like.
Washington comes in riding a two-game āwinning streak,ā and Iām putting that in quotation marks for a reason.
That Nebraska win was smoke and mirrors.
The Huskies scored two touchdowns in the final 90 seconds, including a pick-six, to make the result look a hell of a lot prettier than the actual performance. Their offense managed just 267 total yards and 32 on the ground.
Thirty-two rushing yards. You could accidentally fall forward for more than that over four quarters.
Elijah Brown was pulled for Williams in the second half, which means Washington is now dealing with a quarterback controversy heading into arguably its biggest home game of the season.
Not exactly the atmosphere you want in the quarterback room.
The line opened Washington -2.5 with a total of 44.5, essentially telling us these teams are equal on a neutral field.
I donāt buy that.
Penn State has the better offensive and defensive lines, and Washington has shown absolutely no ability to establish a running game. Thatās a problem against a team that wants to make everything physical and ugly.
The cross-country travel is a legitimate concern, but Campbell has spent the better part of a decade finding ways to win games that look like they should come with a warning label.
Give me the better team getting a field goal.
PICK: Penn State +3
KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE | Vols -6
Kentucky might be the story of the entire college football season.
Will Stein has the Wildcats sitting as co-leaders of the SEC, which is a sentence I wouldāve laughed at in August before asking what somebody slipped into my drink.
But here we are.
And as impressive as Kentucky has been, I think this game means considerably more to Tennessee.
The Volsā margin for error disappeared with that upset loss at South Carolina. They canāt afford another slip if they want to stay in the playoff conversation.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has some breathing room. The Wildcats could lose this game, win out, and still potentially host a first-round playoff game.
Thatās a pretty nice cushion to have in November.
Both teams are coming off a bye, so neither side has a rest advantage. Kentuckyās offensive line is good enough to neutralize some of Tennesseeās defensive front, and I donāt expect the Wildcats to just roll over because Neyland Stadium is loud.
But Tennessee has the edge in the running game and at the skill positions, and desperation matters this time of year.
One team is playing with a cushion. The other is playing with a gun to its playoff hopes.
Give me the desperate team at home.
Neyland can handle the rest.
PICK: Tennessee -6
ALABAMA at LSU | Tide +6
The betting market is pricing Alabama like its offensive line is an active crime scene.
And to be fair, the evidence isnāt exactly helping the defense.
The Tide rank 75th nationally in rushing yards created before contact and 105th in pressure rate allowed in passing situations.
Thatās not an offensive line. Thatās five guys politely asking the defense to please stop.
And LSUās defensive front is just about the worst possible matchup for those weaknesses.
But hereās my problem with this number.
Six points?
Weāre talking about an LSU team that still doesnāt have a ranked win, led by a quarterback in Sam Leavitt who has shown a willingness to give the football to the other team.
Alabama, for all its flaws, has two ranked victories.
I understand the matchup concerns. I understand Death Valley. I understand that LSUās playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and Lane Kiffin has to deliver against the program that helped make him who he is.
All of that matters.
But it doesnāt automatically make LSU a touchdown better than Alabama.
The Tide still have enough talent to compete in a physical game, and if they can avoid letting LSUās defensive front completely take over, theyāre more than capable of keeping this inside the number.
This feels like a field-goal game dressed up as a touchdown spread.
Iāll take the six and live with the offensive line giving me heart palpitations for three hours.
PICK: Alabama +6
BYU at UTAH | UNDER 49
The Holy War has never needed much encouragement to turn into an absolute street fight.
You could put these two teams in an empty parking lot with no referees and theyād still find a reason to hate each other.
And this yearās matchup has all the ingredients for an ugly, physical, clock-draining rivalry game.
Both teams are built around strong rushing attacks, excellent offensive lines, and quality defenses. Neither needs to throw the ball 45 times to win.
The difference is how they generate offense.
Utah ranks fifth nationally in plays of 20-plus yards, so the Utes are capable of creating explosive gains and flipping the field in a hurry.
BYU is much more methodical. The Cougars are comfortable putting together long drives, controlling possession, and making opponents earn every yard.
Their defense also forces teams to sustain drives rather than handing out explosive plays.
Thatās exactly the kind of profile I want when betting an under.
One team that can drain the clock, two defenses that tackle well, and a rivalry where both coaching staffs have probably spent the last six months obsessing over every tendency the other side has.
The total is sitting at 48.5 on some boards, so grab 49 if itās available.
I can see Utah winning something like 27-20, with both teams beating the hell out of each other for four quarters and nobody in Salt Lake City complaining about the lack of fireworks.
PICK: BYU/Utah Under 49
NORTH CAROLINA at UCONN | Huskies +7
This is one of those games where I care more about the situation than the names on the jerseys.
North Carolina is coming off a 38-35 loss to Miami, the kind of near-upset that can absolutely drain a football team emotionally.
You spend an entire week preparing for one of the biggest games on your schedule, come within a few plays of pulling it off, and then have to get yourself excited about traveling to Connecticut.
Good luck with that.
Now the Tar Heels get a noon kickoff in East Hartford, 12:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN, against a 4-4 UConn team that just got punched in the mouth by Air Force.
The Huskies have plenty of motivation themselves. A chance to knock off a Power Four opponent at home doesnāt come around every Saturday.
And letās not pretend North Carolina is some unstoppable machine that deserves to be laying a touchdown on the road regardless of the circumstances.
Seven points is a healthy number in a game where one team could be looking ahead and the other has been circling this opportunity.
This is a classic emotional-hangover fade.
Sometimes handicapping isnāt about who has the better recruiting class or the bigger football budget.
Sometimes itās about figuring out which group of 20-year-olds actually wants to be awake and playing football at noon in Connecticut.
Give me the Huskies and the touchdown.
PICK: UConn +7
OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS STATE | Cowboys -6
Eric Morris deserves a hell of a lot more credit than heās getting.
Taking over a program that won one game last season and turning it into a road favorite in Manhattan is one of the more impressive coaching jobs in college football this year.
And the Cowboys arenāt doing it by winning 17-14 rock fights.
Theyāre scoring.
Oklahoma State averaged 40 points per game through its first seven contests, and this offense has shown it can put up numbers against legitimate competition.
Donāt let the two road losses scare you away.
The Iowa State game finished 51-49, and Oklahoma State essentially found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Wyatt Young drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the go-ahead touchdown with under a minute remaining, helping turn what shouldāve been a massive road win into a loss.
Thatās not a team getting outclassed.
Thatās a team finding a creative new way to shoot itself in the foot.
Kansas State, meanwhile, is coming off a loss at Colorado and dealing with uncertainty surrounding Avery Johnsonās injury.
And thatās a major problem.
Without a healthy Johnson, the Wildcats lose a massive part of their offensive identity. His ability to extend plays and create with his legs changes how defenses have to approach Kansas State.
Take that away, and suddenly this becomes a much more manageable matchup for Oklahoma State.
Drew Mestemaker has been excellent, and with Johnsonās status in question, I give the Cowboys a substantial edge at quarterback.
Oklahoma State has the offense, the momentum, and a coach who has completely changed the direction of the program in less than a year.
Six points on the road isnāt nothing, but I think the Cowboys are simply the better team right now.
Cowboys roll.
PICK: Oklahoma State -6
OREGON at OHIO STATE | UNDER 47
When the college football schedule first came out, this was supposed to be THE game.
Oregon at Ohio State. Two national championship contenders, two loaded rosters, and a November showdown in the Horseshoe that looked like it could decide the Big Ten, the College Football Playoff picture, and potentially the No. 1 seed.
Ohio State entered the season ranked No. 1. Oregon was No. 2. Julian Sayin and Dante Moore were supposed to be in the Heisman conversation, and this matchup had all the ingredients of an instant classic.
This was the game you circled on your calendar months in advance. The kind of matchup that wouldāve had College GameDay setting up shop in Columbus before the sun came up.
Now?
Not so much.
Injuries and disappointment have completely hijacked what were supposed to be championship seasons for both programs. Five combined losses, starting quarterbacks on the sidelines, and two fanbases that went from dreaming about national titles to wondering what the hell happened.
Instead of the offensive fireworks we were promised, weāre getting a matchup that might be decided by which backup quarterback makes fewer mistakes.
Ohio State is coming off a loss at USC with freshman Luke Fahey under center. Oregon, meanwhile, has struggled to score consistently all season and only started showing signs of life against Northwestern following an offensive coordinator change.
And now the Ducks get to walk into the Horseshoe against an elite Ohio State defense.
Wonderful.
Weāre talking about two backup-level quarterback situations, one elite defense, and an Oregon offense thatās still trying to figure out its identity in November.
Thatās not exactly the recipe for a 38-35 shootout.
Ohio State should make Oregon work for every yard, and Iām not buying the idea that the Ducks suddenly become an offensive juggernaut on the road because they looked better against Northwestern.
On the other side, the Buckeyes are asking a freshman quarterback to navigate one of the biggest games on the schedule against a defense loaded with talent.
Six months ago, this matchup had all the makings of an instant classic.
Now Iām just hoping both teams can put together a few consecutive first downs without somebody doing something stupid.
Somebody might score 30.
I just donāt think both teams are getting anywhere near it.
PICK: Oregon/Ohio State Under 47
GEORGIA at OLE MISS | Rebels +3.5
Trinidad Chambliss might be the one quarterback in America who sees Kirby Smart on the opposite sideline and starts smiling.
In two career starts against Smart, Chambliss has accounted for 677 yards of total offense and five touchdowns.
Thatās not a fluke. Thatās a guy who clearly has no interest in being intimidated by Georgiaās defense.
And now he gets another crack at the Bulldogs, this time at home, under the lights in Oxford.
Georgia is walking into a miserable scheduling spot.
The Bulldogs are coming off an emotional win over Florida, one of the biggest rivalry games on their calendar, and now have to turn around and travel to Ole Miss for another massive SEC showdown.
Thatās a tough ask, even for Kirby Smart.
The Rebels arenāt without problems.
Their defense is worse than last yearās unit, and the Kewan Lacy injury takes away an important piece of the offense.
But hereās the thing.
That just means more responsibility falls on Chambliss.
And Iām perfectly comfortable with that.
Heās already demonstrated that he can move the football against Georgia, and his ability to create offense when plays break down is exactly what makes him so dangerous in a game like this.
Georgia is the more complete team on paper. Iām not going to pretend otherwise.
But football isnāt played on paper, and laying more than a field goal on the road against a quarterback whoās already given your defense nightmares isnāt something Iām particularly interested in doing.
The hook matters here.
Three points is one thing. Three and a half gives us the ability to lose by a field goal and still cash.
Night game in Oxford, a dangerous quarterback, and a Georgia team coming off an emotional rivalry win.
Sold.
PICK: Ole Miss +3.5
THE CARD
Notre Dame -6.5
Penn State +3
Tennessee -6
Alabama +6
BYU/Utah Under 49
UConn +7
Oklahoma State -6
Oregon/Ohio State Under 47
Ole Miss +3.5
Nine plays. Seven sides, two totals, and an entire Saturday of football that should tell us a hell of a lot about whoās actually built for December.
November is when the playoff contenders separate themselves from the teams that spent September beating up on directional schools and convincing their fanbases they were national championship material.
Somebodyās season is going to take a very ugly turn this Saturday.
Hopefully it isnāt my bankroll.
