UFC Vegas 124 Preview: Old Guys, Short Notice, and a Hip Bone Nobody Will Ever Forget

UFC Vegas 124 Preview: Old Guys, Short Notice, and a Hip Bone Nobody Will Ever Forget

The UFC’s final APEX Fight Night of 2026 took a hit before fight week even started. Sean Brady’s knee went bad, the Bonfim fight evaporated, and the matchmakers did what they always do in a crisis: called two heavyweights and handed them five rounds.

I’m not mad about it.

Bonfim vs. Brady was a great fight on paper, but there’s a very real chance we would’ve spent 25 minutes watching Brady sit on someone’s back. Waldo vs. Walker has a much better chance of something stupid and violent happening, which is really all I ask for on a Saturday night at the Apex.

Beyond the main event, we’ve got a strawweight title eliminator, a beloved gatekeeper facing the toughest prospect he’s seen in years, two Contender Series guys I’m extremely high on, and some of the worst heavyweight and featherweight slop you’ll see all year.

Something for everyone. Mostly degenerates.

Let’s get into it.

Main Event: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker

Johnny Walker: Chaos in a Human Body

Johnny Walker has always been the most entertaining question mark in the UFC.

At light heavyweight, he was a highlight reel waiting to happen, and also a guy who could lose to absolutely anyone on any given night. Flying knees, spinning elbows, front kicks to the face, ridiculous celebrations. When it clicks, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, he looks like somebody handed a giraffe a pair of four-ounce gloves and told it to improvise.

The numbers back up both halves of that. Eighteen of his 23 wins have come by knockout, and only two of his wins have ever gone to the judges. But six of his 10 losses have also come by KO/TKO, and he only avoids about 45 percent of the significant strikes thrown at him, which is below average for a guy who fights almost entirely on the feet.

The move to heavyweight looks like it might have breathed new life into him.

He walked into his heavyweight debut at UFC 332 and flatlined Mick Parkin with a flying knee, and all of a sudden everyone remembered why they fell in love with Johnny Walker in the first place.

At heavyweight, he’s no longer giving up strength or size the way he sometimes did at 205, and his speed and length become even more dangerous against the bigger, slower guys in the division. At 6’6” with an 82-inch reach, he’ll have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Waldo.

But the same questions follow him wherever he goes.

His fight IQ comes and goes. His chin has failed him many times before. And when the first plan doesn’t work, Johnny has a tendency to start overthinking things.

A guy who wins on instinct is at his most dangerous when he’s not thinking at all. Unfortunately, Johnny sometimes takes that philosophy a little too literally.

He’s also turning around barely a month after the Parkin fight, which is the shortest notice either of these guys has had for a five-round fight.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: The Heavyweight Who Fights Like a Middleweight

Waldo is the opposite of Johnny in almost every way.

He’s not flashy. He’s not going to throw a spinning anything. He’s a true heavyweight who wins by doing the fundamentals more often, and more consistently, than the guy standing across from him.

His biggest weapon is volume.

Waldo lands roughly five and a half significant strikes per minute, which is nearly double the heavyweight average of about 2.8. He works behind his jab, digs to the body, keeps his feet underneath him, and keeps touching you until you start to break.

He has some pop in his hands, with nine of his 17 wins coming by knockout, but his real power comes from accumulation. He wears you down until it feels like you’re fighting a man who forgot he’s supposed to get tired.

And unlike half the heavyweight division, Waldo doesn’t need an oxygen tank and a folding chair after throwing a six-punch combination. The man tied the UFC record by fighting five times in 2025, and this will be his fourth fight of 2026. His last one, against Curtis Blaydes, was barely eight weeks ago.

He also has the frame and durability of a legitimate heavyweight. He’s never been finished in 21 pro fights. Walker will be the faster, longer athlete, but Waldo should be the thicker, sturdier man in there.

Now the honest part. Waldo is coming in on a two-fight skid, dropping decisions to Alexander Volkov and Blaydes. Neither man finished him, but neither man had much trouble with him either once they figured out how to manage the volume. He came into the year on a heater, knocking out Derrick Lewis in January, and now he needs this one badly.

How It Plays Out

Every path to victory for Johnny Walker runs through the first 10 minutes.

He needs to find that moment. Maybe it’s a counter knee as Waldo walks in. Maybe it’s a big right hand over the jab. Whatever it is, Johnny needs to make something happen before this turns into a prolonged boxing match.

If he lands clean, this thing could be over in a hurry.

Waldo’s game plan is simple, and that’s what makes it scary.

Stay in Johnny’s face. Don’t give him room to load up the ridiculous stuff. Keep the jab working. Make him fight every single minute.

Don’t expect anyone to change levels, either. Both guys average well under half a takedown per 15 minutes. This is a stand-up fight, period.

Johnny has never looked particularly comfortable when a fight turns into a long, ugly grind. Heavyweight cardio is rarely pretty, and Walker hasn’t been tested deep into a fight at this weight.

Waldo isn’t Mick Parkin. He’s not going to give Walker the same wide-open, chin-up, forward-charging looks that Johnny needs to produce another highlight.

Here’s what makes the over interesting. Waldo has never been finished, while Walker has a documented history of getting knocked out but also possesses the kind of one-shot power that can end a fight instantly.

Either Johnny lands something spectacular early, or Waldo’s volume drags this into deep water.

The books opened Waldo around -300 with Walker near +250, and the early money has come in on Johnny. I get it. I’m still not paying that price for the side.

I think we get some tense exchanges early, a couple of moments where Walker lands something clean, and then Waldo’s pace starts taking over from the middle rounds onward.

The Pick: Over 2.5 rounds. Lean Waldo.

Co-Main Event: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba

This one has title implications written all over it.

Suarez comes in ranked No. 2, Jandiroba at No. 3, and the winner has a legitimate argument for a title shot. Suarez is 12-1, Jandiroba is 23-4, and between them they have 20 submission wins.

Just don’t expect a striking clinic. Neither woman has much interest in standing and trading any longer than absolutely necessary.

Tatiana Suarez: The Human Weighted Blanket

At her best, Tatiana Suarez is as suffocating as anyone in the history of the division.

She leads all active strawweights in control-time percentage at 58.6 percent, and she owns the division record for significant strike accuracy at 59.7 percent. That second stat isn’t because she’s a sniper. It’s because most of her strikes come from on top of you, where it’s very hard to miss.

She gets you to the fence, gets in on your hips, takes you down, and then lies on you until you start reconsidering your career choices.

Her wrestling is elite. She was a Pan American wrestling gold medalist before she ever set foot in a cage. Her top pressure is suffocating. Her ground-and-pound isn’t particularly spectacular, but it’s constant enough to keep opponents from getting comfortable.

Here’s my issue with Tatiana.

Let’s talk about that Loopy Godinez fight.

Loopy was handling Suarez. She was getting the better of the exchanges, making Tatiana uncomfortable, and showing that the supposedly unstoppable wrestling machine could absolutely be beaten.

Then Loopy did what Loopy does best.

She made one of her patented dumbass mistakes.

Instead of continuing to do what was working, she put herself in a terrible position and ended up underneath a much bigger Tatiana Suarez.

Congratulations. You just handed one of the best top-control wrestlers in women’s MMA the exact position she wanted.

And once Suarez got on top, the size difference became a massive factor. Loopy wasn’t getting out from underneath her, and the entire complexion of the fight changed.

That’s what frustrates me about using that win as evidence that Suarez is back to her dominant best. She wasn’t dominating Loopy. Loopy was having success until she made a completely unnecessary mistake and gave Suarez the opportunity to impose her biggest advantage.

And the striking still hasn’t progressed. She lands about 2.3 significant strikes per minute for her career. She’s a wrestler first, second, and third. When the takedowns aren’t coming, there’s not much of a Plan B.

She also turns 36 in December, and her injury history is long enough to have its own Wikipedia page.

Virna Jandiroba: The Grappler Who Isn’t Afraid of Her Back

Virna is one of the best pure grapplers in the division, and that’s exactly why I love this matchup for her.

Fourteen of her 23 career wins come by submission. And here’s a fun one: it’s actually Virna, not Tatiana, who holds the record for most total control time in strawweight history, at 1:14:52. She’s not just a guard player. She’s a top player who happens to be comfortable on her back too.

Most women who end up underneath Tatiana Suarez are just trying to survive. They accept bottom position, defend the ground-and-pound, and pray for the referee to stand them up.

Virna isn’t one of those women.

She’s extremely comfortable off her back, but more importantly, she’s dangerous from there. She averages roughly twice as many submission attempts per 15 minutes as Suarez does.

She’s constantly hunting sweeps, reversals, and submissions. And she’s not just throwing up desperate attempts to make something happen. She’s genuinely excellent at creating those opportunities and converting them into dominant positions.

That’s a massive difference.

Getting taken down by Suarez is one thing. Being able to threaten her position once you’re on the mat is something entirely different.

Virna has the technique, timing, and instincts to make Suarez work for every second of control. She doesn’t panic underneath opponents, and she’s very good at turning what looks like a bad position into an advantageous one. She also stops about 73 percent of takedowns against her, while Suarez finishes about 46 percent of the ones she attempts. Something has to give there.

Her striking isn’t some massive weapon either, but she’s more willing to work on the feet than Suarez, and I trust her gas tank more.

That matters a lot in a fight I expect to go the full 15 minutes.

And for what it’s worth, Virna already beat Loopy Godinez too. She just did it over three rounds without needing Loopy to hand her anything.

How It Plays Out

This fight goes the distance. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t.

Suarez is an elite wrestler, and pretending she won’t get Virna down would be ridiculous. But there’s a difference between securing a takedown and controlling someone who knows exactly what she’s doing off her back.

Virna doesn’t accept bad positions. She attacks wrists, creates angles, and constantly looks for ways to reverse the situation. And unlike most women who find themselves underneath Suarez, she actually has the grappling ability to make those attempts successful.

That’s what makes this matchup so interesting.

Every scramble forces Suarez to work. Every time Virna escapes, Tatiana has to start the process all over again. And against someone with Virna’s gas tank, that’s going to become exhausting.

The Loopy fight showed that Suarez can struggle when she isn’t dictating the action. Godinez was having success until one of her patented dumbass mistakes landed her underneath a much bigger woman.

Virna isn’t likely to give Suarez that same gift, and Tatiana won’t have nearly the same size advantage to fall back on.

I expect Suarez to have success early, but as the fight progresses, the scrambles get longer, the takedowns become harder to finish, and Virna starts taking over.

Rounds 2 and 3 belong to Jandiroba.

The Pick: Jandiroba by decision.

Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith

This is the one that hurts to write.

Davey Grant: The Bouncer of the Bantamweight Division

Davey Grant might be one of my most profitable fighters on the entire UFC roster.

I’ve done extremely well reading his fights for years, and the man has completely embraced his role as the gatekeeper of the division.

More importantly, he’s thrived in it. He’s won three of his last four, including an April win over Adrian Luna Martinetti.

Some prospect shows up with a shiny record, a couple of highlight-reel finishes against regional competition, and absolutely no real explosiveness?

Davey takes him out back and teaches him what the UFC actually is.

He’s tough as nails. He’s durable. He hits harder than people expect. And he never, ever stops coming.

He’s at his best in ugly, gritty fights against guys who look the part but don’t actually have the tools to back it up.

That’s how he’s made a living exposing frauds.

At 18-8, with this being his 17th trip into the Octagon, he’s been through just about every kind of fight imaginable. Nothing rattles him, and nothing comes easy against him.

Unfortunately, there’s a problem this weekend.

Elijah Smith: The Real Deal

Elijah Smith isn’t a fraud.

At 10-1, with eight straight wins and a 3-0 UFC record that includes a knockout, a submission and a decision, he’s quick, explosive, and athletic in all the ways Davey’s usual victims are not. He also finished Toshiomi Kazama with a powerbomb, which is the kind of thing that tells you a guy is not physically intimidated by anybody.

He puts combinations together beautifully and throws in bunches, which is exactly the kind of thing that gives aging veterans problems.

He doesn’t just throw one shot and reset. He keeps you under fire, makes you defend multiple attacks, and doesn’t give you much time to breathe.

He also has a major advantage in his corner: his father, Gilbert Smith, who had a strong MMA career of his own, including a run on The Ultimate Fighter and in the UFC.

You can see that influence in Elijah’s preparation.

He’s composed, he fights with a plan, and he doesn’t make nearly as many of the stupid young-fighter mistakes that Davey usually capitalizes on.

This isn’t some undefeated kid who knocked out three Uber drivers and suddenly thinks he’s the next world champion.

This kid can fight.

How It Plays Out

We’ve seen this movie a hundred times.

The old guy faces the young guy with a double-digit age gap, and everything goes great for the old guy.

Right up until it doesn’t.

And when it stops going great, it usually stops all at once.

The double-digit age gap here is 16 years. Davey is 40. Elijah just turned 24 in September.

Here’s the stat that keeps this interesting: Davey actually lands more than Smith per minute for his career, about 5.1 significant strikes to Smith’s 4.2. But Davey also eats about 3.8 per minute to Smith’s 3.0. That’s Davey Grant in two numbers. He’ll out-throw you, and he’ll let you hit him to do it.

I think Smith looks fantastic through the first two rounds. His speed, athleticism, and combination punching are going to be a serious problem for Davey early.

Davey will eat shots, keep walking forward, and do what Davey Grant does.

And because he’s Davey Grant, I fully expect him to find something in the third round and make things uncomfortable.

The kid is going to have to dig in.

But I think Smith banks enough in rounds 1 and 2 to survive the late push and take a clear decision.

Sorry, Davey.

It’s not you. It’s Father Time.

The Pick: Elijah Smith by decision, 29-28.

Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando

Billy Elekana: Big Tools, Shaky Chin

Billy Elekana has a lot of what you want physically.

He’s big, strong, athletic, and capable of making life miserable for opponents when he’s coming forward and dictating the pace. He’s 3-1 in the UFC and riding a three-fight win streak, with three knockouts and three submissions on his record.

The problem is what happens when he’s not.

He submitted Junior Tafa in the second round of his last fight, but Tafa hurt him badly along the way, and that exposed the biggest hole in his game.

His defense while backing up is still a work in progress, and once he gets touched clean, the durability becomes a serious question.

All the athleticism in the world doesn’t mean much if somebody can turn your lights off.

Lucas Fernando: The Better Fighter

Fernando is simply the sharper, more complete fighter.

He’s a former two-division LFA champion, he’s won five straight with three consecutive stoppages, and eight of his wins have come by first-round stoppage. In his UFC debut in August, he battered Rafael Tobias for two rounds and finished him 70 seconds into the third.

He has better shot selection, he’s more patient, and he understands how to punish mistakes when opponents make them.

He doesn’t need to get into a firefight with Elekana.

He just needs to find the openings, stay composed, and land clean on a guy whose chin has already shown some cracks.

And I think he’s more than capable of doing exactly that.

How It Plays Out

I don’t expect the judges to be needed here.

Elekana’s size and strength give him a chance to make things uncomfortable early, particularly if he can bully Fernando against the fence.

But the moment this becomes a striking exchange, the advantage shifts.

Fernando is the more disciplined technician, and Elekana’s tendency to leave himself exposed while retreating is exactly the kind of flaw a patient counterstriker can exploit.

He doesn’t need to chase the knockout. He just needs to let Elekana make the mistake.

And I suspect that mistake is coming sooner rather than later.

Fernando finds the chin, Elekana finds the canvas, and we move on with our evening.

The Pick: Fernando by KO/TKO.

Nina Milosevic vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Nina Milosevic: Doing What She’s Supposed To

Yes, I know.

Beating Hailey Cowan should be taken with the smallest grain of salt you can possibly find.

But Nina did exactly what she was supposed to do, cutting Cowan down with body shots, and in this sport, that counts for something. That’s nine straight wins since she lost her pro debut.

She’s faster, cleaner, and the better athlete in this matchup.

She should have the hand-speed and footwork advantages, and she has the tools to pick Priscila apart from the outside.

Priscila Cachoeira: A Brand That’s Expiring in Real Time

Priscila’s entire reputation was built on one thing.

You can’t hurt her.

She’d walk through fire, eat three shots to land one, and try to drown opponents in chaos.

That was the deal.

Unfortunately, that deal is falling apart faster than a used BMW after the warranty expires.

She’s lost three straight, and this is her 15th trip into the Octagon. That’s a lot of mileage on a style built around getting hit.

She’s slow, her cardio is bad, and the durability that carried her through much of her career appears to be fading.

Klaudia Syguła busted her up badly, and Klaudia hits like she’s wearing oven mitts.

If Klaudia can do that kind of damage, imagine what a faster, sharper striker can do.

How It Plays Out

Priscila is going to march forward because that’s the only gear she has.

Nina is going to circle, counter, and make her pay every time she steps into range.

By the second round, Priscila’s face should be telling the story, and her gas tank will probably be running on fumes.

The price is likely too wide to get particularly excited about, but the fight itself shouldn’t be close.

The Pick: Milosevic, comfortably.

Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli

Marcos Degli: He Made Me Look Stupid

Full transparency.

I had my doubts about Degli heading into his Contender Series fight.

I thought he was a flashy striker who looked fantastic on tape against guys who didn’t fight back.

He made me look stupid. He submitted Paris Moran in the second round.

Respect.

What impressed me most was that he showed he’s much more than just a striker.

His back takes are excellent. His positional grappling is legitimate. And when he gets into a finishing position, he has the squeeze to make opponents pay.

He transitions between striking and grappling smoothly, which is what separates legitimate prospects from guys who just look good in a highlight package.

He’s a complete fighter, and he’s far more experienced than his UFC record would suggest. He’s a former LFA champion riding a 13-fight win streak.

Mitch Raposo: Waiting for a Mistake That Won’t Come

Mitch Raposo’s entire game seems built around survival.

Hang around. Stay in the fight. Wait for the other guy to get impatient or make a mistake. Then try to capitalize.

The record tells you exactly that. He’s 11-3, and all four of his UFC fights have gone the distance: two split-decision losses, then two decision wins over Azat Maksum and Allan Nascimento.

That can work against inexperienced prospects who panic when things don’t go their way.

Here’s the problem.

Degli doesn’t panic.

And he doesn’t seem particularly interested in making the mistakes Raposo needs him to make.

He’s too skilled, too composed, and too dangerous in too many areas.

How It Plays Out

Raposo’s best chance is to turn this into a slow, frustrating fight where Degli gets impatient and starts forcing things.

Unfortunately for Mitch, that’s not the fighter I saw on Contender Series.

Degli showed patience, positional awareness, and the ability to transition between striking and grappling without forcing anything.

Raposo can survive for stretches, but surviving isn’t winning.

And while nobody has submitted Raposo in the UFC yet, Degli has the tools to change that. The longer this fight goes, the more opportunities he’ll have to establish control, work toward the back, and hunt a submission.

Eventually, I think he finds it.

The Pick: Degli by finish.

Nakamura vs. Schmid

The Battle for Who’s Less Bad

Nakamura isn’t very good.

Lucky for him, Schmid is worse.

I still don’t understand how Schmid got a UFC contract in the first place. Somebody in the matchmaking office has some explaining to do. His one UFC appearance was a short-notice fill-in against Marwan Rahiki back in May.

He doesn’t do anything at a particularly high level, and he’s going to be overmatched even against a guy who isn’t exactly setting the world on fire himself.

Nakamura is very lightly seasoned for a 37-year-old, and it shows.

But he does have the cleaner tools and better instincts of the two, and the Szalay win is a nice line on his résumé. He rallied for a late third-round TKO to win the Road to UFC featherweight tournament, and that was his eighth straight win and seventh finish.

That’s about as much praise as I’m willing to hand out for this fight.

How It Plays Out

Neither man has shown much interest in the concept of defense, which should make this entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Schmid is going to give Nakamura openings. Lots of them.

And while Nakamura isn’t exactly a future contender himself, he’s at least capable of recognizing a gift when somebody hands him one.

This feels like a fight where both guys spend the opening minutes exchanging mistakes until one of them makes the final, fatal contribution.

I don’t think we’re going to need the judges, and I doubt we’re going to need much of the clock either.

The Pick: Nakamura by finish. Stone-cold under.

Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço

Ladies and gentlemen, your low-level heavyweight fight of the week.

Please keep your expectations somewhere beneath sea level.

Thomas Petersen: I’m Still Looking for the Good Part

Petersen is stepping in on short notice after Alvin Hines pulled out.

Which is great, because now he gets to be bad AND out of shape.

He’s supposed to be this decorated wrestler, and he never wrestles.

That’s the most frustrating thing about him.

He has the one tool that could actually make him competitive at this level, and he apparently treats it like an emergency exit. Only to be used if absolutely necessary.

He’s not dangerous on the feet. He’s slow. He’s not particularly athletic.

I’ve watched the tape, and I’m still looking for the good part.

Maybe it’s hidden somewhere in the third round of a regional fight from 2019. I don’t know.

The one thing I can tell you is that he’s alternated wins and losses through all seven of his UFC fights, and the last one was a first-round submission loss to Valter Walker. So by the pattern, he’s due. That’s the most optimistic thing I’m going to say about Thomas Petersen.

Gabriel Lorenço: Better, Not Good

Lorenço comes in off a solid Contender Series win, and he’s the more active, more dangerous fighter of the two.

To be fair, he’s won eight straight, and his win over Charlie Cleveland was his fourth consecutive first-round finish.

But let’s not start pretending we’re looking at the next heavyweight champion.

I’m not convinced he’s anything special.

He’s benefiting from a matchup against a guy who’s arguably worse than anyone he faced on that DWCS card.

Being the better fighter in this matchup is not exactly a lifetime achievement award.

How It Plays Out

Short-notice heavyweight.

A decorated wrestler who apparently considers wrestling beneath him.

A Contender Series graduate who hasn’t seen a second round in his last four fights.

What could possibly go wrong?

Petersen is taking this fight on short notice with an already questionable gas tank. Lorenço doesn’t need to be particularly special to capitalize on that.

If Petersen can’t establish his wrestling early, he’s going to spend the rest of the fight trading punches with a younger, more active opponent while his cardio slowly files for bankruptcy.

And if he does decide to wrestle, there’s no guarantee he can sustain it.

I hate this fight.

You should too.

Grab a snack, take the under, and pray for violence.

The Pick: Lorenço if you’re forcing a side, it’s dog or pass. The under is the play.

Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes

Gabriella Fernandes: Which Version Shows Up?

Gabriella Fernandes might have one of the most confusing résumés in the UFC.

She has big, legitimate wins over Carli Judice and Wang Cong. The Wang Cong win was a technical submission over a recent title challenger. Those are the kinds of wins that make you think you’re looking at a real contender.

Then she goes and gets chinned by Casey O’Neill.

Casey is a very good fighter, but nobody has ever accused her of having knockout power.

That’s like getting knocked out by your accountant.

At her best, Fernandes is a forward-moving volume fighter who drags opponents into a pace they can’t sustain.

At her worst, she’s vulnerable in exchanges and can make some absolutely baffling decisions.

So which Gabriella Fernandes are we getting?

Nobody knows.

Including Gabriella Fernandes.

For now, the good version is on a three-fight win streak.

Karine Silva: Running Out of Answers

Karine Silva might just be washed.

Her entire game was built around finding the finish, particularly through her front-headlock attacks and guillotine.

When those attacks work, she’s one of the more dangerous submission threats in the division. She opened her UFC run 3-0 and was flying up the rankings.

The problem is what happens when they don’t.

She’s now gone five fights without a finish and has lost three of her last four.

When the submission isn’t there, she doesn’t have much of a Plan B.

She doesn’t throw enough volume to consistently win rounds on the feet, and her striking isn’t good enough to bail her out when opponents survive the early grappling exchanges.

That formula has been exposed repeatedly.

How It Plays Out

Silva comes in ranked No. 11 and Fernandes No. 14, but those rankings don’t tell us much about this matchup.

We’re looking at two fighters headed in uncertain directions, and I’m not entirely sure either one knows where she’s going.

If Silva catches a neck early, she wins.

If she doesn’t, Fernandes should be able to use her volume and pace to start taking rounds.

I lean Fernandes, but this is exactly the kind of fight where I’d rather sit back, watch, and let somebody else donate money to the sportsbook.

The Pick: Fernandes. Dog or pass on the side.

Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov

Jose Delano: Clean Hands, Relentless Pace

I’m a big, big Jose Delano guy.

He’s won five straight, most recently a unanimous decision over Robert Ruchala in April, and he’s 11-1 over his last 12 fights.

His striking is crisp, clean, and technical.

He puts punches together beautifully, he’s accurate, and he doesn’t waste much movement.

But what really separates him is the pace.

Delano keeps coming. And coming. And coming.

He makes opponents fight every second of every round until they start breaking, and most guys simply can’t sustain that kind of pace for 15 minutes.

His takedown defense is also much better than you’d expect from somebody who strikes at his level.

That’s going to be a huge factor in this matchup.

Murtazali Magomedov: Cool Debut, Questionable Competition

Murtazali won his UFC debut with a Scottish twister.

Which, to be fair, is about as cool as a submission gets.

It was also against a complete low-level bum.

Let’s not get carried away.

That said, he’s 11-0 and has finished every single one of those 11 opponents. You don’t do that by accident, even against regional competition.

He’s a chain wrestler with legitimate submission threats, and he’s going to come out looking to put Delano on the mat early.

When he gets top position, he’s dangerous.

But we haven’t really seen him against someone who can consistently defend takedowns, force him to work, and make him pay for failed entries on the feet.

That’s a very different assignment. He’s also never seen a third round as a pro, and that’s exactly where Delano lives.

How It Plays Out

I actually think Murtazali looks pretty good early.

He’ll get some shots in, maybe secure a takedown, and make the first round interesting.

Then the pace starts kicking in.

Delano’s takedown defense holds up, he begins landing clean in the exchanges, and Murtazali’s shots get slower and more desperate as the fight progresses.

By the third round, I expect Delano to be piling it on.

He’s absolutely live to find a late finish, but even if he doesn’t, I think he gets the job done.

The Pick: Delano, live for a late finish.

Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Andre Petroski

Andre Petroski: You Cannot Be Serious

Mantas is going to put Andre Petroski to sleep.

I don’t know how else to say it.

Petroski isn’t UFC level anymore, and his durability is becoming a running joke. He’s lost three straight for the first time in his career, and five of his six career losses have come by knockout.

The man got knocked out by a hip bone.

A HIP BONE.

Let that sink in for a second.

Not a flying knee. Not a spinning back kick. Not some perfectly timed overhand right.

A hip bone.

Then he went and got finished by Cody Fucking Brundage.

And here’s the part that makes it worse. Petroski was winning that fight. He took the first round on all three scorecards with a takedown and top control. Then one left hook early in the second, and it was over 44 seconds into the round. Brundage was on a three-fight losing streak at the time. Petroski was the -220 favorite.

You cannot be serious.

Petroski is a wrestler at heart, and his only real path to winning fights is getting opponents to the mat and keeping them there.

The problem is that he can’t seem to take a clean shot on the way in anymore.

And that’s a pretty significant issue when your entire game revolves around closing distance.

Mantas Kondratavičius: Power Plus Experience

Some people were disappointed when Mantas didn’t get the finish in his UFC debut.

I wasn’t.

Before that fight, he had finished every single opponent of his pro career, with six knockouts. Going 15 minutes with Antonio Trocoli was the first time anybody made him go the full distance.

Fifteen minutes with a veteran who wanted to grapple, make things ugly, and force him to work taught Mantas more than another 30-second highlight ever could.

He got legitimate cage time.

He dealt with adversity.

He had to solve problems instead of simply relying on his power to bail him out.

That’s valuable experience for a developing fighter. And yes, his gas tank looked shaky late in that fight. Which is exactly why I want him finishing this one early.

And make no mistake, the power is still there.

This guy can end your night with one clean shot.

Now he’s coming into a matchup against a wrestler whose chin appears to have filed for early retirement.

Wonderful.

How It Plays Out

Petroski needs to wrestle to win.

He doesn’t have the chin to survive getting there.

That’s the entire handicap.

The moment Andre starts dropping his level and trying to close distance, Mantas is going to have opportunities to catch him coming in.

And I don’t think Andre can afford to get caught even once.

One clean shot and it’s over.

The Pick: Mantas by KO. Probably Round 1.

Ko Seok-hyeon vs. Wellington Turman

Ko Seok-hyeon: Good Enough to Get the Job Done

I usually love to dunk on the Korean fighters.

Not this guy.

I actually like what Ko brings to the table.

Losing to JPL is nothing to be ashamed of. JPL is a legitimate prospect at 170, and plenty of guys are going to lose to him. And it was a competitive decision, not a beatdown.

Ko is a solid fighter. He’s powerful, well-rounded, strong in the clinch, and dangerous from top position. He’s a former AFC champion at both welterweight and middleweight. I’m not going to pretend he’s some future title contender, but he’s good enough to win fights at this level.

And he’s certainly good enough to beat Wellington Turman.

My biggest issue with his performance against JPL wasn’t that he lost.

It’s that he didn’t fight his own fight.

He got sucked into a style of matchup that didn’t suit him, and he paid for it.

That’s a correctable mistake.

Wellington Turman: Three Years Gone

Turman has been gone for three years and has had who knows how many surgeries. He hasn’t fought since December 2023.

He was supposed to fight Islam Dulatov on the Ankalaev card back in August, so at least he’s been in camp and preparing for a return for months.

That helps with the ring rust.

But let’s be serious.

Even when fully healthy, Turman just isn’t very good.

He’s 3-6 in the UFC, doesn’t carry a ton of danger anywhere, and hasn’t shown much that suggests he’s suddenly going to return as a completely different fighter.

His best weapon has always been the submission, with eight of his wins coming by tap. Unfortunately for him, Ko has never been submitted as a pro.

Three years away from the Octagon is a long time.

Three years away when you weren’t particularly good to begin with?

Good luck.

How It Plays Out

If Ko fights his fight, he cruises.

He’s going to be stronger in the clinch, better from top position, and more dangerous on the feet.

I expect him to mix in wrestling, control Turman, and pile up damage without taking many unnecessary risks.

Ko isn’t a huge finisher, and I don’t see that suddenly changing here.

This should be a clean, dominant performance.

The Pick: Ko by decision, 30-27. Korean Tyson finds his way back to the winner’s circle. (He’s officially rebranded himself as “Technical” now, which, given how much of his game is takedowns and control, is honestly more accurate.)

Jonny Parsons vs. Jose Souza

We are truly blessed to be getting this fight.

Not really.

If you’re running 10 to 15 minutes late to your date with the couch on Saturday night, relax.

You’ll be missing this one, and that’s probably a good thing.

Two Kinds of Bad

There are levels to sucking.

There’s sucking because you’re low-volume, refuse to use your tools, and seem completely uninterested in making a fight happen.

And then there’s sucking because you simply don’t have the skill.

This fight is where those two worlds collide.

A real meeting of the minds.

Unfortunately, neither mind appears particularly interested in fighting.

Jose Souza: Tools He Never Uses

On paper, Souza has the length and physical tools to make this a miserable night for Parsons.

The problem is that he never uses them.

He sits at range, throws a fraction of the volume he should, and waits for something to happen.

He’s as fraudulent a 9-1 as you’re going to find in this sport. His last win was a split decision over Ding Meng, which tells you everything about how much separation he creates.

There’s nothing more frustrating than watching a fighter who has the physical tools to be effective but apparently needs a written invitation to throw a punch.

Jonny Parsons: Chaos Is a Ladder

Parsons is far from good.

He doesn’t do anything at a particularly high level, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.

But at least he’s willing to fight.

He’ll make things ugly, chaotic, and messy, and that’s exactly what you need against somebody like Souza, who seems perfectly content to spend 15 minutes doing absolutely nothing.

Sometimes the best weapon against a passive fighter is simply being willing to make him uncomfortable.

And Parsons can do that.

The caveat: he hasn’t fought since he finished Danny Roberts in July 2023. That’s more than three years on the shelf, against a 24-year-old.

How It Plays Out

Souza has the physical advantages to make this a relatively straightforward fight.

Length, range, and the ability to keep Parsons on the outside.

All he has to do is use them.

Which, based on everything we’ve seen, might be asking a little too much.

Parsons isn’t going to give him the luxury of standing around admiring his own reach advantage. He’s going to push forward, make things ugly, and force Souza into exchanges he’d rather avoid.

It’s not a particularly sophisticated strategy, but sophistication is probably wasted on this matchup anyway.

I sincerely hope nobody is using this fight to introduce a friend to mixed martial arts.

In a battle of bad, I’ll take the guy who’s actually willing to fight.

The Pick: Parsons.

Final Picks

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker: Over 2.5 rounds, lean Waldo

Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba: Jandiroba by decision

Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith: Smith by decision, 29-28

Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando: Fernando by KO/TKO

Nina Milosevic vs. Priscila Cachoeira: Milosevic

Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli: Degli by finish

Nakamura vs. Schmid: Nakamura by finish, under

Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço: Under, dog or pass on the side

Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes: Fernandes, dog or pass

Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov: Delano, live for a late finish

Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Andre Petroski: Mantas by KO, Round 1

Ko Seok-hyeon vs. Wellington Turman: Ko by decision, 30-27

Jonny Parsons vs. Jose Souza: Parsons

On paper, this isn’t exactly a card that’s going to sell a million pay-per-views. We’ve got aging veterans trying to hold off Father Time, prospects looking to make a name for themselves, and a couple of heavyweights who might need medical attention after walking up the stairs to the Octagon.

But that’s the beauty of these Apex cards. The ones that look like absolute dogshit on paper somehow end up delivering 10 finishes, three knockouts of the year, and at least one result that makes you question everything you thought you knew about MMA.

I’ve got a few prospects I’m excited about, a couple of veterans I’m ready to send to the retirement home, and absolutely no idea what Johnny Walker is going to do. Which, historically, is when Johnny Walker is at his most entertaining.

Enjoy the fights. And if Andre Petroski gets knocked out by another body part that isn’t supposed to knock people out, somebody please check on the man.