College Football Week 0 Preview 2026
WE. ARE. FUCKING. BACK.
After months of pretending baseball can fill the void, college football is finally back in our lives. Week 0 isn’t exactly the main course, but I don’t give a shit. There are point spreads, questionable quarterbacks, coaches at new schools and grown men convincing themselves that a team they’ve never watched before is absolutely mispriced. That’s college football, baby.
We’ve got four games I’m attacking on Saturday, starting bright and early with Bill Belichick and North Carolina taking on TCU in Dublin. Then Lincoln Riley and USC get a chance to hang a 50 burger, Stanford begins a new era under Tavita Pritchard, and we’ll close out the night with Memphis and UNLV.
We’re starting the season with a couple of dogs I think can win outright, my favorite play of Week 0 and a USC offense that I fully expect to commit a felony against the scoreboard.
The offseason is over.
Let’s break down some football.
North Carolina vs. TCU
We’re heading to Dublin for the first game of the day, and I’m taking the points with North Carolina +9. I’m also going to sprinkle the money line because I think UNC has a legitimate chance to win this game outright.
I know exactly what everyone is going to say. TCU played North Carolina last year and absolutely embarrassed them, 48-14 in Chapel Hill. It wasn’t remotely competitive. TCU outgained them 542-222 and ran for 258 yards.
But that was last year, and these are two very different football teams.
The biggest reason I can’t lay this kind of number with TCU is the quarterback situation. Josh Hoover is gone to Indiana, and TCU is replacing him with Jaden Craig, a transfer from Harvard who has never taken an FBS snap.
Now, I don’t want to make it sound like Craig can’t play. He was really good at Harvard. He threw for nearly 2,900 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season and was a Walter Payton Award finalist.
But personally, I want my lawyer coming from Harvard, not my quarterback.
Going from Ivy League football to making your Power Four debut in Dublin against a Bill Belichick defense is a pretty significant jump.
TCU is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Gordon Sammis. So now I’m laying nine points on a neutral field with a new quarterback, playing in a new offensive system, in the first game of the season?
I’m good.
North Carolina obviously has plenty of questions themselves. They went 4-8 in Belichick’s first season, the offense was terrible, and there has been a massive amount of roster turnover. They have 60 newcomers, including 40 true freshmen.
But here’s where I’m willing to buy into North Carolina a little bit.
This is Year 2 of Bill Belichick.
Last year was his first season ever coaching college football. It was an entirely different world for a guy who spent decades in the NFL. Recruiting, the transfer portal, NIL, developing younger players, roster turnover, everything was different.
Now he’s had a full season to learn it.
I’m willing to bet that one of the greatest football coaches of all time learned something from a pretty shitty first season. I’m not expecting North Carolina to suddenly turn into the New England Patriots, but I do expect them to be better coached, better prepared and much more comfortable with what Belichick wants to do in Year 2.
I also really like the addition of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator.
North Carolina’s offense desperately needed a change after last season, and whatever you think about Petrino, the guy knows how to coach offense. His Arkansas offense last year averaged over 450 yards per game despite the team being terrible overall. That’s a pretty significant upgrade for a UNC offense that couldn’t consistently move the football last season.
Billy Edwards Jr. has officially won the quarterback job. He barely played last season at Wisconsin because of a knee injury, but he’s a sixth-year player who has legitimate Power Conference experience from his time at Maryland. I don’t need him to be a superstar here. I need him to take care of the football and let Petrino put him in manageable situations.
There’s also the Steve Belichick situation. He’s away from the program on medical leave, which obviously isn’t ideal for the defense. But if there is one situation where I’m not going to completely panic about losing a defensive coordinator, it’s when the head coach is Bill fucking Belichick. He’s called defenses at the highest level of football for decades. If he needs to become more involved defensively, I’m pretty comfortable with that.
And then there’s the number.
I simply don’t believe TCU should be a nine-point favorite over North Carolina on a neutral field. This isn’t Fort Worth. Both teams are flying across the Atlantic and playing in Dublin. Give me nine points in a weird Week 0 game with a six-time Super Bowl champion on one sideline and a quarterback making his first FBS start on the other.
There’s also the revenge factor. I normally don’t put a ton of weight into revenge narratives, but getting embarrassed 48-14 on your own field in Belichick’s first game at North Carolina isn’t something anybody in that building forgot.
TCU is probably the better team on paper. I’m not arguing that.
But are they nine points better on a neutral field with a quarterback making his first FBS start and a brand-new offensive coordinator?
I don’t think so.
Give me the nine points, and I’m absolutely putting a little something on North Carolina to win the damn game.
The Play: North Carolina +9
Money Line Sprinkle: North Carolina
Prediction: North Carolina 23, TCU 21
San Jose State vs. USC
I’m not going to overcomplicate this one. I think USC hangs a 50 burger on San Jose State.
There’s a ton of hype surrounding USC entering this season, and for once I think a lot of it is justified. Lincoln Riley enters Year 5 with the #1 recruiting class in the country, a veteran quarterback coming back and one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football.
This is starting to look a lot more like what USC is supposed to look like.
Jayden Maiava is back after throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season while leading the country with a 91.2 QBR. He also added six touchdowns on the ground. Now he gets another offseason in Lincoln Riley’s offense and opens the year against a San Jose State defense that is basically starting from scratch.
That’s the part I really want to attack here.
San Jose State went 3-9 last season, and this roster has been completely gutted. The Spartans have 48 new players, and only three projected starters started six or more games for San Jose State last season.
Good luck figuring that shit out in Week 0 against Lincoln Riley.
USC also has legitimate continuity up front. Four starters return on the offensive line, and they have plenty of talent in the backfield. So San Jose State can’t just sit back and hope to prevent Maiava from throwing it all over the field. USC should be able to run the ball down their throats too.
And then there’s that #1 recruiting class. I’m not expecting a bunch of freshmen to walk onto the field and immediately carry USC, but that’s not what they need to do. They’re being added to an offense that already has an established quarterback, experienced offensive linemen and proven weapons.
That’s a pretty nice situation for Lincoln Riley.
Riley also has a history of absolutely beating the shit out of these teams early in the season. USC scored 56 against San Jose State in 2023, 66 against Nevada that same year, then hung 73 on Missouri State and 59 on Georgia Southern last season.
When USC has the opportunity to name its score against an overmatched opponent, Riley generally isn’t shy about doing it.
The full-game spread is enormous, and I don’t really want to screw around with San Jose State potentially scoring something late against USC’s backups. Give me the offense instead.
USC’s team total is 48.5.
I need seven touchdowns.
Against a defense replacing essentially everybody, with Maiava back, Lincoln Riley calling plays and the No. 1 recruiting class in the country making its debut at the Coliseum, I think we get them.
Give me the 50 burger.
The Play: USC Team Total Over 48.5
Prediction: USC 55, San Jose State 13
Hawaii vs. Stanford
This is probably my favorite play of Week 0. Give me Stanford.
There’s been some Hawaii money coming into the market after positive news surrounding Pofele Ashlock and his recovery from a knee injury. That doesn’t really scare me. If anything, I’m happy to take the better Stanford number.
The first thing that jumps out to me is the travel. Hawaii simply has not been a good team when coming to the mainland to play Power Conference competition. The kickoff time actually helps them a little bit because 4 PM in California is 1 PM in Hawaii, but they still have to make that trip across the Pacific and play this game at Stanford.
And Stanford was actually pretty damn good at home last year. They went 4-2 at Stanford Stadium, their best home record since 2018.
Then you look at the roster turnover.
Stanford returns around 60% of its production, while Hawaii has to replace 17 starters across its offense, defense and special teams.
That’s a pretty massive difference for a Week 0 game.
I also really like the Tavita Pritchard hire. This isn’t some outsider coming in who needs to learn what Stanford football is supposed to look like. Pritchard played quarterback at Stanford, coached there for more than a decade and eventually became their offensive coordinator. He was on those staffs during the run where Stanford was consistently winning double-digit games, competing for Pac-12 championships and playing in major bowl games.
He also has one of the more ridiculous pieces of Stanford history attached to his name. His first career start at quarterback came against No. 2 USC in 2007, when Stanford was a 41-point underdog, and he led them to a 24-23 win in one of the biggest upsets in college football history.
After his first stint at Stanford, Pritchard went to the NFL and spent three seasons as the quarterbacks coach for the Washington Commanders. Most notably, he worked directly with Jayden Daniels during his Offensive Rookie of the Year season and Washington’s run to the NFC Championship Game.
Now he comes back to Stanford and gets to work alongside Andrew Luck, which is another relationship that goes way back. These two were literally competing against each other for the Stanford quarterback job before Luck eventually took over. Pritchard then transitioned into coaching and worked with Luck during his Stanford career.
So when I talk about Stanford having a new regime, I don’t look at this like a complete reset. Pritchard knows the school, knows the program, knows what Stanford looked like when it was actually really fucking good, and now he’s coming back with NFL experience under his belt. Add Andrew Luck overseeing the program and I think this is a pretty fascinating combination.
On a neutral field, I rank Stanford significantly higher than Hawaii, and this isn’t a neutral field. This is a home game for Stanford. When I combine that with Hawaii’s travel issues, Stanford’s returning production and the amount Hawaii has to replace, I think we’re getting a pretty favorable number here.
And I don’t want to hear at the end of the season that Hawaii won seven games while Stanford only won four or five, so Hawaii must have been the better team. Strength of schedule matters. Stanford has one of the tougher schedules in college football, while Hawaii’s road is considerably easier.
Stylistically, I like Stanford here too. I expect them to lean heavily on the running game and their defense, control the clock and make Hawaii play Stanford’s type of game. We’ve already seen money come in on the under, and I actually think that fits perfectly with how Stanford wants this game to look.
Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 last year in Honolulu on a field goal in the final seconds. This time Stanford gets them at home, with a new regime, plenty of returning production and a chance to start the Pritchard era with a little revenge.
I think they do exactly that.
The Play: Stanford -4
Prediction: Stanford 27, Hawaii 17
Memphis vs. UNLV
We’re closing out the night with Memphis and UNLV, and I’m going to be on the dog here with Memphis +4.5.
Charles Huff takes over at Memphis after spending last season at Southern Miss, and one thing I really like about this situation is how many of his guys came with him. Memphis brought in a ridiculous 53 transfers, but a good chunk of those players already played for Huff at Southern Miss.
That immediately made me think of what Curt Cignetti did at Indiana when he came over from James Madison. Cignetti didn’t just take a new job and start completely from scratch. He brought a bunch of players with him who already knew how he coached, knew the system and knew exactly what was expected of them. That continuity helped Indiana hit the ground running instead of spending half the season figuring everything out.
I’m not saying Memphis is about to become Indiana overnight, but I love the blueprint. The transfer portal makes it possible for a coach to essentially bring part of his old program with him, and Huff has taken advantage of that.
Huff has also shown he can make you money as an underdog. His teams are 7-2 against the spread as a dog over the last two seasons, and he has 17 wins over that stretch.
Memphis still hasn’t publicly named its starting quarterback, which I actually think is smart. Marcus Stokes appears to have the experience advantage, while Air Noland probably has the higher upside as a passer. They’re different style quarterbacks, and Huff is making UNLV spend time preparing for both of them.
On the other side, UNLV is entering Year 2 under Dan Mullen, but once again they’re breaking in a new quarterback. Jackson Arnold was a highly recruited guy and has played at Oklahoma and Auburn, so there’s obviously talent there. Playing Mountain West defenses instead of SEC defenses should make his life easier, but I’m not convinced this offense is going to be firing on all cylinders immediately.
The bigger problem for me is the UNLV defense. They ranked 113th nationally last season and now have to replace eight starters. Maybe replacing eight starters from the 113th-ranked defense is actually a positive, but either way, there are a lot of new pieces that need to come together quickly.
We’ve also seen UNLV get pushed around physically when they step up against better competition. I think Memphis can give them problems in that department too.
This feels like a game that comes down to the fourth quarter, and I actually think Memphis has a very real chance to win it outright. If Huff can get anything close to the immediate continuity Cignetti created by bringing his guys from JMU to Indiana, Memphis could be much further along in Week 0 than the market expects.
Give me the points, but I think the dog wins outright.
The Play: Memphis +4.5
Prediction: Memphis 27, UNLV 23
And there we have it. Four games, four plays, and for the first time in what feels like six years, we have meaningful college football to bet on again.
I’m planting my flag with North Carolina +9 and sprinkling the money line, asking Lincoln Riley to do what Lincoln Riley does and run up a completely unnecessary amount of points, backing the beginning of the Tavita Pritchard era at Stanford, and closing out the night with Memphis +4.5 in a game I think they win outright.
Is Week 0 the greatest slate we’re ever going to see? Absolutely fucking not. But after an entire offseason, you could put two directional schools on a field at 2 AM and tell me there’s a spread involved and I’d probably watch.
Next week the floodgates open and the real chaos begins.
For now, we’ve got football.
That’s more than enough for me.
