UFC Vegas 122 Preview: Allen vs. Duncan, Career Crossroads, and the Niko Price Retirement Tour
Twelve fights. One Apex. Several careers hanging on by dental floss.
We’re back at the Apex, where you can hear every punch, every corner instruction, and Dana White contemplating which regional promotion he’s going to raid for next month’s card.
The main event is actually a good one. Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan are both riding winning streaks, both looking to climb the middleweight rankings, and both have flaws that make this matchup far more interesting than it might initially appear.
Below that, we’ve got veterans fighting for their careers, prospects trying to prove they belong, a few guys who should probably have their résumés updated, and Niko Price returning from retirement because apparently getting beaten up four consecutive times wasn’t enough.
There’s also a heavyweight fight featuring somebody I genuinely believe might be the worst fighter currently employed by the UFC.
What a time to be alive.
MAIN EVENT: BRENDAN ALLEN VS. CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN
Brendan Allen enters at 27-7, ranked fourth in the division and riding a three-fight winning streak. Across from him is Christian Leroy Duncan, 15-2, ranked tenth, and winner of five straight.
On paper, this is a fascinating matchup between an accomplished grappler and a dangerous kickboxer. Unfortunately for Allen, the biggest obstacle standing between him and another victory might be Brendan Allen himself.
I’ve never seen somebody so talented be so committed to making his own life difficult.
Allen has rebuilt himself following consecutive losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, picking up victories over Marvin Vettori, Reinier de Ridder, and Edmen Shahbazyan.
Good for him. Seriously.
But can we stop pretending that RDR victory was some incredible accomplishment?
De Ridder looked like he had spent the entire week trapped inside a sauna against his will. The man had absolutely no business cutting to 185 anymore. He looked like a hostage who had just been rescued from a basement.
I’m not taking the victory away from Allen. It counts. But beating somebody who looks like he needs an IV and a sandwich isn’t exactly the defining moment of a championship résumé.
Here’s what makes Allen so frustrating: he’s actually a very good grappler.
His ability to scramble, chain together positions, and take the back is legitimately impressive. When he commits to wrestling, he can make life miserable for almost anybody in the division.
Unfortunately, somewhere along the way, Brendan Allen convinced himself he’s an elite kickboxer.
And that’s where the circus begins.
His striking has improved, absolutely. But there’s a difference between becoming a competent striker and deciding you’re the second coming of Anderson Silva.
Allen seems completely unaware of that distinction.
He’ll have a perfectly reasonable path to victory staring him directly in the face and decide he’d rather stand in the pocket exchanging punches like somebody offered him a bonus for ignoring his coaches.
It’s genuinely remarkable. The man has a Swiss Army knife of grappling tools and keeps trying to open everything with a butter knife.
Against Christian Leroy Duncan, that’s a particularly stupid way to approach a fight.
Duncan is a long, switch-stance striker with a 79-inch reach, four inches longer than Allen’s. He controls distance well, throws dangerous knees, and punishes opponents who come forward without setting up their entries.
His recent victories over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier showed a more composed, disciplined version of CLD.
Granted, Cannonier is 42 years old. Beating him is impressive, but it’s a little like beating your father at pickup basketball. Nice accomplishment, but nobody’s ordering championship rings.
Duncan has his own weaknesses. Dolidze managed to control him for extended stretches, and Gregory Rodrigues showed that making the fight ugly can disrupt his rhythm.
That’s exactly where Allen should be looking to take this fight.
Wrestle. Scramble. Make Duncan work. Drag him into deep water.
It’s not rocket science.
But asking Brendan Allen to consistently follow an intelligent game plan feels like asking a golden retriever to file your taxes.
He might get lucky and press the right buttons, but I wouldn’t build my financial future around it.
And while we’re discussing questionable decisions, can somebody explain why Brendan Allen is apparently Brazilian now?
The man is from Beaufort, South Carolina.
South Carolina.
Home of sweet tea, barbecue, and college football.
Not São Paulo. Not Rio de Janeiro. Beaufort, South Carolina.
And now he’s walking out under the Brazilian flag.
Listen, I understand training in Brazil. I understand loving the culture. I understand appreciating the people who have helped develop your career.
But this is one of the funniest identity crises I’ve seen in professional sports.
Brendan Allen went on a training trip and apparently came home with a new nationality.
Most people visit Brazil and bring back a souvenir. Brendan Allen brought back a flag and an entirely new personality.
And that’s what concerns me about his fight IQ.
If this man can wake up one morning and decide he’s Brazilian, what’s stopping him from waking up Saturday and deciding he’s Alex Pereira?
Somewhere in South Carolina, there’s probably a confused high school geography teacher wondering where everything went wrong.
I can already picture it. Allen gets tagged with a clean right hand, his corner starts screaming for a takedown, and Brendan decides this is the perfect opportunity to demonstrate his improved boxing.
Because why win a fight the easy way when you can lose it doing something that looks cooler?
And that’s ultimately why I’m picking Duncan.
I actually think Allen has the more reliable path to victory. If he wrestles consistently, forces extended scrambles, and makes Duncan fight off his back, he could absolutely win this fight.
But I don’t trust him to make those decisions for 25 minutes.
Duncan is the cleaner striker, the longer fighter, and the more dangerous man at distance. If Allen starts getting comfortable trading punches, CLD has the tools to punish him.
And knowing Brendan Allen, getting punched in the face will probably only convince him that he’s winning the striking exchanges.
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan by KO
Brendan Allen has the skills to win this fight. Unfortunately, Brendan Allen is the one holding the controller, and I wouldn’t trust him to press the right buttons.
MATHEUS CAMILO VS. JAI HERBERT
We’ve got a 25-year-old Brazilian prospect taking on a 38-year-old Englishman whose chin has been involved in more unfortunate incidents than a Spirit Airlines customer service desk.
Matheus Camilo is coming off an impressive TKO victory over Nazim Sadykhov in June, his second straight win after dropping his UFC debut.
He’s primarily a wrestler, averaging 4.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, but his hands are becoming a serious problem for opponents.
That’s what makes him dangerous. When you’re constantly worried about defending a takedown, your hands start dropping. And when your hands start dropping against somebody who can crack, bad things tend to happen.
Jai Herbert, meanwhile, is a long, rangy kickboxer with a 77-inch reach, giving him an eight-inch advantage over Camilo.
Herbert can absolutely win exchanges at distance. He’s experienced, throws good volume, and has the tools to make this competitive if he can keep Camilo away.
But there’s one small problem.
His chin.
Ilia Topuria famously sent Herbert into another dimension, and while getting knocked out by Topuria isn’t exactly embarrassing, Herbert has shown vulnerability to big shots throughout his career.
At 38, that’s not something that magically improves.
A chin is like a used car. The mileage only goes in one direction, and eventually something expensive stops working.
I don’t even think Camilo needs to wrestle much here. He just needs to make Herbert respect the possibility.
Show the takedown, get Herbert reacting, and bring something heavy over the top.
Pick: Matheus Camilo by KO
This is my most confident pick on the main card. I think Camilo makes a statement.
LOOPY GODINEZ VS. KETLEN SOUZA
Ah, Poopy Loopy.
One of the more frustrating fighters on the UFC roster, and somebody who has personally convinced me that having good wrestling and actually using good wrestling are two entirely different skills.
Godinez is coming off a loss to Tatiana Suarez, which I’m not going to hold against her too much. Losing a grappling battle to Suarez is less of a sporting failure and more of a natural disaster.
On paper, Godinez has everything you want from a pressure wrestler. She throws volume, has good takedown defense, and can make fights miserable when she commits to her grappling.
Unfortunately, she has a habit of treating her wrestling like the expensive dishes your grandmother keeps in the cabinet.
They’re there. Everybody knows they’re there. Nobody’s allowed to use them.
Instead, Loopy frequently decides she’d rather stand in the pocket and trade punches, even when doing so makes absolutely no sense.
Enter Ketlen Souza.
Souza is riding a two-fight winning streak, including an impressive knockout of Ariane Carnelossi. She’s a sharp, accurate striker who does her best work when opponents are willing to exchange with her.
Her grappling isn’t particularly impressive, and Godinez should have a meaningful advantage if this fight consistently hits the mat.
But that requires Loopy to remember that wrestling is legal.
I’ve watched enough of her fights to know that trusting her to follow the obvious game plan is a dangerous way to live.
I see Godinez getting drawn into another unnecessary striking match, Souza landing the cleaner shots, and Loopy finally remembering she can wrestle sometime around the final two minutes.
Pick: Ketlen Souza by decision
ANDRE FILI VS. KAI KAMAKA III
Two guys who desperately need a win, which usually means we’re either getting a great fight or 15 minutes of two men terrified of making a mistake.
Andre Fili has been around forever. This will be his 28th UFC appearance, and he’s coming off consecutive losses in 2026, most recently getting stopped by Vinicius Oliveira.
Fili has always been a talented fighter. He’s got a good jab, solid wrestling, plenty of experience, and the occasional spinning strike that makes you remember why people were excited about him in the first place.
But the mileage is adding up.
Twenty-eight UFC fights is a lot of time spent getting punched in the face for a living.
Kai Kamaka III returned to the UFC after spending time in Bellator and PFL, and he’s also coming off a stoppage loss.
Kamaka isn’t exactly reinventing mixed martial arts. He likes to move forward, trade punches, and mix in some wrestling. He’s aggressive, physical, and generally willing to make things uncomfortable.
Fili is probably the more technically polished fighter. He has the experience advantage and should be better at managing rounds.
But at some point, you have to start wondering how much Andre Fili has left.
Kamaka’s willingness to pressure and trade could be enough to expose that mileage.
I’m not pretending to have some incredible read here. This is one of those fights where I could make a convincing argument for either guy and still feel uncomfortable about it.
Pick: Kai Kamaka III by decision
A coin flip. Somebody has to win.
MALCOLM WELLMAKER VS. OTARI TANZILOVI
I owe Malcolm Wellmaker an apology.
Not because I was wrong about him.
Because I believed in him.
A year ago, I was fully aboard the Wellmaker hype train. Contender Series knockout artist, explosive hands, legitimate power, and the kind of finishing ability that gets people excited about a prospect.
I had my ticket. I had my seat. I was ready for the ride.
Then he lost a unanimous decision to short-notice newcomer Ethyn Ewing at UFC 322.
Okay, bad night. It happens.
Then Juan Diaz II submitted him in May.
And that was enough for me.
I’m officially off the bandwagon. I didn’t jump off while it was moving. I just quietly gathered my belongings and got out at the next rest stop.
Wellmaker has legitimate power, but his game is painfully limited when opponents don’t cooperate.
He likes to plant his feet, load up, and look for something devastating. When it lands, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, he spends an awful lot of time waiting for another opportunity.
And his wrestling defense has been terrible.
I love that he’s moved to American Top Team. That’s exactly the kind of gym where he should be training if he wants to develop a more complete game.
But let’s be serious.
You don’t fix years of questionable wrestling in one summer in Coconut Creek.
That’s not how this works.
Otari Tanzilovi is a dangerous Georgian with seven knockouts in ten victories, and he has shown an ability to mix wrestling into his striking.
That’s a horrible matchup for somebody like Wellmaker.
Tanzilovi doesn’t have to dominate him on the ground. He just needs to make Wellmaker think about the possibility of getting taken down.
Once that happens, Wellmaker becomes hesitant to plant his feet and load up, which takes away the most dangerous part of his game.
Could Wellmaker catch him with something ridiculous? Absolutely.
But I’ve already paid for that ticket twice, and I’m not buying another one.
Pick: Otari Tanzilovi by decision
JULIUS WALKER VS. GERALD MEERSCHAERT
Welcome to the Loser’s Bracket Invitational.
Gerald Meerschaert is 38 years old, riding a five-fight losing streak, and moving up to light heavyweight after missing weight by four pounds in his last appearance.
Julius Walker is 1-3 in the UFC and has been stopped twice this year, including an eight-second knockout against Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
Eight seconds.
I’ve spent more time waiting for my microwave to beep after the food was already done.
GM3 is one of the most accomplished submission artists in UFC history. The man has 29 career submission victories and can find a neck from positions where most fighters would be thinking about how to get home.
If this fight goes to the ground and Walker gets careless, Meerschaert is absolutely capable of submitting him.
But Gerald has a problem that has followed him around for years.
His chin is made out of fine china.
He’s been knocked out so many times that I’m surprised the Nevada commission doesn’t make him fight with a pillow.
And now he’s moving up to 205 pounds.
Moving up a weight class with a questionable chin is like putting a bigger engine in your car while refusing to fix the brakes.
Walker, for all his flaws, is a big, athletic light heavyweight who can hit hard.
He’s only 27, and despite his recent struggles, he has the physical tools to make this a very unpleasant night for Meerschaert.
The key is simple: don’t wrestle him.
There is absolutely no reason to voluntarily enter a grappling exchange with a guy who has spent the better part of two decades strangling people.
Stay upright. Use the size advantage. Throw punches.
I know that sounds incredibly simple, but considering the decision-making we’ve seen from some fighters on this card, apparently it needs to be said.
Pick: Julius Walker by KO
If Walker shoots a takedown and gets submitted, I reserve the right to throw something at my television.
PRELIMS
FRANCISCO PRADO VS. ISMAEL BONFIM
This has all the makings of a pink-slip fight.
Ismael Bonfim has lost three straight and sits at 2-4 in the UFC. Francisco Prado hasn’t won inside the Octagon since July 2023.
Somebody is leaving this fight with a victory. Somebody else might be leaving with a very polite email from human resources.
Bonfim is the more established striker. He’s got good power, throws with accuracy, and has the kind of nickname you want in a fight: Marreta, meaning Sledgehammer.
Unfortunately, he’s been swinging that sledgehammer into absolutely nothing lately.
Three consecutive losses are concerning, especially for a fighter who once looked like he might develop into a legitimate lightweight prospect.
Prado is only 24, trains at American Top Team, and is moving back down to lightweight after competing at welterweight.
He’s younger, taller, and still has room to improve.
He’s also extremely hittable, absorbing around five significant strikes per minute, which isn’t ideal when your opponent’s nickname is literally Sledgehammer.
But I think Prado’s size, pace, and youth will become increasingly important as this fight progresses.
Bonfim has the tools to win, but the trajectory of his career is heading in the wrong direction.
Prado isn’t exactly setting the world on fire himself, but I’d rather back the younger fighter with room to grow than the guy who looks like he’s running out of answers.
Pick: Francisco Prado by decision
NIKO PRICE VS. LEON SHAHBAZYAN
Ladies and gentlemen, he’s back.
Niko Price retired after getting submitted by Michael Chiesa in 63 seconds.
Six months later, he’s decided retirement wasn’t for him.
Apparently, spending your Saturday nights getting strangled in front of millions of people is a difficult habit to break.
Niko has lost four straight fights, and the way he’s losing is becoming increasingly concerning.
I’ve been fading Niko Price for what feels like several presidential administrations.
At this point, it’s one of the most dependable relationships in my life.
But there’s a problem this weekend.
His opponent might actually suck just as badly.
Enter Leon Shahbazyan.
Leon is the brother of Edmen Shahbazyan, and his UFC debut lasted 23 seconds before Levan Chokheli knocked him out.
Twenty-three seconds.
That’s not a debut. That’s a free trial.
And somehow, after watching that performance, we’re supposed to confidently pick this man to win a UFC fight?
Absolutely not.
I originally liked Shahbazyan here, mostly because he’s younger and Niko Price appears to have been running on fumes since approximately 2021.
But the more I think about it, the less interested I am in trusting either one of these guys with my money.
Price has become a walking finishing opportunity. His durability is questionable, his defensive grappling has deteriorated, and every fight feels like another opportunity for somebody to put him out of his misery.
Shahbazyan, meanwhile, managed to get knocked out before most people had finished finding their seats.
This isn’t exactly a matchup between two defensive masterminds.
It’s two guys who have demonstrated an impressive ability to lose fights in a hurry.
And that’s where I think the opportunity is.
Instead of trying to figure out which one of these disasters is going to win, why not just trust that somebody is going to screw up?
Maybe Shahbazyan catches Niko early and sends him back into retirement.
Maybe Price reminds everybody that he can still throw something ridiculous and catches Leon before he has another opportunity to embarrass himself.
Maybe somebody shoots a takedown, leaves his neck hanging out, and gets submitted like he’s attending his first Brazilian jiu-jitsu class.
I genuinely don’t care who wins.
I just don’t trust either one of them to survive very long.
Pick: Under 1.5 rounds
Two fighters I don’t trust, two questionable defensive games, and six minutes and change to find a finish. Somebody please put us out of our misery.
FELIPE FRANCO VS. BRENDSON RIBEIRO
Felipe Franco is an intriguing prospect.
He’s 25 years old, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, a judo brown belt, and has ten first-round finishes on his résumé.
The man does not believe in overtime.
He’s only gone beyond the first round twice as a professional, which is impressive until you start wondering what happens when somebody actually makes him fight for 15 minutes.
Franco made his UFC debut on short notice at heavyweight, weighing just 227 pounds, before dropping to light heavyweight and picking up a victory in July.
He’s clearly more comfortable at 205, where his physical tools and grappling can become major advantages.
Brendson Ribeiro, meanwhile, is stepping in for Alexander Poppeck.
Ribeiro’s 17-11 record isn’t particularly attractive, but he’s experienced, hits hard, and has spent plenty of time fighting legitimate competition.
He’s also the kind of guy who can ruin a prospect’s night with one punch.
And that’s what makes this interesting.
Franco comes out aggressively, looking to finish opponents before they’ve even had time to establish a rhythm.
That’s great when you’re the more dangerous fighter.
It’s considerably less great when you’re charging toward somebody nicknamed The Gorilla who has knockout power.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Ribeiro lands something nasty early.
But Franco has the better overall skill set, and I expect his grappling to be the difference.
Pick: Felipe Franco by first-round submission
I like Franco, but Ribeiro is a lot more dangerous than his record suggests.
ALLEN FRYE JR. VS. RJ HARRIS
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen somebody look more out of place inside a UFC Octagon than Allen Frye Jr.
I genuinely believe Allen Frye Jr. might be the worst fighter currently employed by the UFC. Not the worst heavyweight. The worst fighter, period.
And considering some of the absolute nonsense we’ve seen on recent Apex cards, that is an impressive accomplishment.
Frye is 6-foot-5, has an 80.5-inch reach, and knocked out all six opponents he beat before reaching the UFC.
Sounds promising, right?
Then you actually watch him.
His UFC debut against Guilherme Pat was an absolute disaster. He looked slow, stiff, uncomfortable, and completely overwhelmed by somebody who wasn’t exactly Jon Jones in his prime.
Frye landed just 33 significant strikes over three rounds while absorbing 64.
That’s 15 minutes of professional mixed martial arts where the most impressive thing he demonstrated was his ability to remain employed.
His striking is painfully basic. His movement is awkward. His defensive awareness leaves plenty to be desired, and his grappling is still a major work in progress.
He looks like somebody who was told that being 6-foot-5 automatically qualifies you to fight professionally.
And the most concerning part is that he’s already 27. This isn’t some 19-year-old prospect who’s been training since childhood and needs time to develop. He’s a former basketball player who picked up MMA in 2021.
There’s nothing wrong with that career path, but the UFC isn’t supposed to be a recreational sports league where everybody gets a chance to try something new.
Now, before I spend the entire section burying Frye, let’s talk about RJ Harris, because I actually think there might be something here.
Harris is a former football lineman who reportedly dropped from 315 pounds to around 258 to pursue MMA. He’s 6-0 professionally, has a wrestling background, and has shown a willingness to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground.
His UFC debut against Alvin Hines lasted just 100 seconds, with Harris getting the knockout.
And unlike Frye, Harris actually looks like he belongs in a cage with other professional fighters.
He’s explosive for a heavyweight, carries legitimate power, and has enough grappling ability to give opponents multiple things to worry about.
I’m not ready to declare him the next heavyweight champion. Let’s not get carried away.
But I do think there’s some upside here.
Harris moves well for a big man, seems comfortable in exchanges, and doesn’t look like he’s trying to remember what his coaches told him five minutes before the fight.
Against Frye, he should have opportunities everywhere.
On the feet, I think Harris is quicker and more dangerous. In the clinch, he’s more physical. And if he decides to wrestle, I have absolutely no faith in Frye’s ability to defend himself consistently.
Frye’s biggest advantage is his length, but having an 80-inch reach doesn’t do you much good if you don’t know what to do with it.
It’s like giving somebody a Ferrari when they haven’t figured out how to parallel park.
The only thing that concerns me is heavyweight MMA being heavyweight MMA. These are enormous men, and sometimes one completely undeserved punch lands and ruins 15 minutes of perfectly reasonable analysis.
But outside of that possibility, I don’t see many reasons to favor Frye.
Harris is the better athlete, the more complete fighter, and, from what I’ve seen, the guy with the considerably brighter future.
Pick: RJ Harris by Finish
I think Harris has a chance to make a statement here. And if Allen Frye somehow wins this fight, I’ll personally apologize to the entire town of Mineola.
ALICE PEREIRA VS. DARYA ZHELEZNYAKOVA
I’m officially pumping the brakes on the Alice Pereira hype train.
Pereira is only 20 years old, has some legitimate physical tools, and is coming off a highlight-reel knockout of Hailey Cowan.
Beautiful knee. Spectacular finish.
But can we talk about what happened before that?
Because apparently everybody watched the knockout, immediately forgot the previous nine minutes, and decided Alice Pereira was the second coming of Amanda Nunes.
I watched that fight, and I wasn’t particularly impressed.
Hailey Cowan was hanging with Pereira in the striking exchanges. Hailey Cowan.
A woman who entered that fight without a single UFC victory.
And not only was Cowan competitive, she was finding success, hurting Pereira, and getting her to the ground.
Then Pereira landed a miracle knee, Cowan went to sleep, and suddenly we’re supposed to pretend we witnessed the arrival of the next great bantamweight prospect.
I’m not buying it.
Credit to Pereira for capitalizing on the opportunity. A knockout is a knockout, and the knee was gorgeous.
But one spectacular finish doesn’t erase everything that happened leading up to it.
And let’s not forget Pereira lost her UFC debut to Montserrat Rendon.
You know who beat Montserrat Rendon?
Darya Zheleznyakova.
Now, MMA math is usually a wonderful way to lose money, so I’m not suggesting that automatically means Darya wins this fight.
But it certainly doesn’t make me any more interested in backing Pereira.
Darya is a good striker. She’s got a sharp jab, puts together nice combinations, and has a much more polished striking game than I think she’s getting credit for.
She understands how to work behind her jab, manage distance, and put together the kind of clean, technical exchanges that should serve her well in this matchup.
My biggest concern with Darya is that she doesn’t wear damage particularly well.
Some fighters can eat a clean shot and look like they’re waiting for their Uber. Darya gets touched and suddenly looks like she’s just survived a hostage situation.
And in a close fight, appearances matter.
You can be winning exchanges, but if every clean punch you absorb makes you look like you’re reconsidering your career choices, you’re not exactly doing yourself any favors with the judges.
That’s the one thing that gives me pause here.
But I think Darya has the tools to make this fight look decisive enough on the feet that it won’t matter.
I expect her to establish the jab early, control the distance, and consistently beat Pereira to the punch. Pereira is dangerous, but I haven’t seen enough from her technically to believe she’s going to outstrike Darya over three rounds.
And unless Pereira lands another miracle knee, I think Darya’s cleaner work and overall striking advantage will be obvious enough to get the love she needs from the judges.
Pereira might eventually become a very good fighter. She’s young enough to develop into something special.
But we’re evaluating who she is right now, not who she might become three years from now.
And right now, I’m not particularly impressed.
Pick: Darya Zheleznyakova by decision
I’m not letting one miracle knee against Hailey Cowan convince me that Alice Pereira is suddenly somebody I need to fear.
ERNESTA KARECKAITE VS. MELISSA GATTO
We’re closing out the preview with two women who could both really use a win.
Melissa Gatto has had one of those UFC careers where every time you remember she exists, she’s either injured, coming off a long layoff, or changing weight classes.
She’s talented, particularly on the ground, but consistency has been a major problem.
Gatto has legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and enough power to make opponents respect her striking.
The issue is that her career has never developed any real momentum.
Injuries, inactivity, a suspension, and weight-class changes have made it difficult for her to establish herself.
Ernesta Kareckaite is 1-2 in the UFC, with her lone victory coming by split decision over Nicolle Caliari.
Not exactly the kind of résumé that has people lining up outside the arena.
But she’s a disciplined, rangy striker who generally keeps fights competitive.
She uses her length, works from distance, and doesn’t tend to completely fall apart when opponents pressure her.
Gatto has the better grappling credentials, and if she can consistently get this fight to the mat, she could absolutely win.
But I’m not convinced she can do that often enough.
I expect Kareckaite to control distance, land the cleaner strikes, and make Gatto spend too much time chasing her around the cage.
It probably won’t be pretty.
But not every fight needs to be pretty. Sometimes you just need to survive 15 minutes, get your hand raised, and collect your paycheck.
Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite by decision
FINAL THOUGHTS
Nobody is going to confuse UFC Vegas 122 with UFC 300, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend using this card to introduce somebody to mixed martial arts.
But that’s part of the charm of these Apex Saturdays. You tune in expecting absolutely nothing, and three hours later you’re screaming at your television because somebody with a clear wrestling advantage has decided he’s Muhammad Ali.
We’ve got a legitimate middleweight main event, a few prospects worth keeping an eye on, several veterans who might be approaching the end of the road, and Allen Frye Jr. attempting to convince the world that his UFC contract wasn’t issued by mistake.
I’m particularly interested in seeing whether Camilo continues his rise, whether Harris can build on an impressive debut, and whether Malcolm Wellmaker makes me regret abandoning the bandwagon.
As for Niko Price, I have no idea why we’re doing this again, but apparently neither does he.
Twelve fights. Twelve picks. Plenty of opportunities to look like a genius or an absolute moron.
That’s MMA.
PREDICTION RECAP
- Christian Leroy Duncan over Brendan Allen by KO
- Matheus Camilo over Jai Herbert by KO
- Ketlen Souza over Loopy Godinez by decision
- Kai Kamaka III over Andre Fili by decision
- Otari Tanzilovi over Malcolm Wellmaker by decision
- Julius Walker over Gerald Meerschaert by KO
- Francisco Prado over Ismael Bonfim by decision
- Leon Shahbazyan v. Niko Price Under 1.5 rounds
- Felipe Franco over Brendson Ribeiro by first-round submission
- RJ Harris over Allen Frye Jr. by Finish
- Darya Zheleznyakova by decision
- Ernesta Kareckaite over Melissa Gatto by decision
