NFL Week 4 Preview: Five Plays, Zero Vibes
We’re three weeks into the NFL season and apparently having a healthy starting quarterback is now considered a luxury.
Every injury report looks like a CVS receipt. Half the league is starting someone they found on LinkedIn. And somehow we’re supposed to confidently bet our hard-earned money on this shit.
Naturally, I found five games I like.
Three of these plays involve backup quarterbacks. Another involves Bryce Young playing on a bad knee behind an offensive line that already struggles to protect him when he has two functioning legs. And then there’s Dallas, whose defense appears to be morally opposed to tackling.
What could possibly go wrong?
Let’s get into it.
Cardinals -2.5 at Giants
Records: ARI 1-2, NYG 2-1
The Giants are 2-1.
I have no idea how. I don’t believe it. I refuse to acknowledge it. As far as I’m concerned, they’re 0-3.
Jaxson Dart is done for the regular season with a knee injury, and since Jameis Winston took over seven snaps into Week 2, the Giants have produced 229 passing yards, zero touchdowns and one interception across basically two full games.
Not zero passing touchdowns.
Zero touchdowns.
They have played almost eight quarters of NFL football without accidentally stumbling into the end zone.
That’s honestly impressive.
Then Brian Burns tore his ACL, because apparently God looked at this roster and decided they still had too much going for them.
Now the Giants are basically waiting around for J.J. McCarthy while Jameis keeps the seat warm and presumably throws a football directly at a linebacker once or twice a game.
Arizona isn’t exactly a wagon. Jacoby Brissett got his ass handed to him by Seattle, Josh Sweat is questionable with a groin injury and still hasn’t recorded a sack this season.
Zero.
Very cool use of money.
But Brissett is at least a functioning NFL quarterback, which in this particular matchup might as well make him Patrick Mahomes.
Rookie RB Jeremiyah Love gives Arizona an actual running game, and the Cardinals are also significantly healthier than the Giants.
The line has moved roughly four points toward Arizona from the opener, while SportsLine’s model likes New York.
That’s fine.
The computer can bet the Giants.
I have enough problems.
There is one thing that scares me here. Andrew Thomas is healthy, the Giants could lean heavily on the run, and Arizona hasn’t exactly been stuffing people. If New York can turn this into one of those disgusting games where both teams seemingly agree beforehand not to entertain anybody, laying road points gets dicey.
Still, I don’t trust this Giants offense to do enough.
Give me Cardinals -2.5.
Texans -3 vs Cowboys
Records: DAL 1-2, HOU 0-3
I know.
Houston is 0-3 and I’m laying points with them.
Just hear me out before you call somebody.
The Texans have lost to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, and the Indy game finished 19-17.
They’re not good enough to be 3-0, obviously, but I also don’t think they’re nearly as bad as their record makes them look.
C.J. Stroud has thrown for 794 yards without an interception, Nico Collins is expected back, and Houston finally gets to face a defense that doesn’t make moving the football feel like filing your taxes.
Dallas has allowed 1,161 yards through three games, including 539 rushing yards at 5.0 yards per carry.
Baltimore ran for 192 on them last week.
At some point you have to stop calling it a bad game and acknowledge that your defense just fucking sucks.
Jerry Jones responded by trading for Joey Porter Jr., which feels a little like realizing your kitchen is on fire and ordering a nicer refrigerator.
I’m sure it’ll help.
Eventually.
The Cowboys’ Over is 3-0 because apparently every Dallas game needs to turn into Arena Football.
And that’s the part that scares me.
Houston’s linebacker room is destroyed. Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o and Jake Hansen are all hurt or out, and Dak still has CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson.
Dallas can score.
They can also give up 30.
So yes, this could very easily turn into complete nonsense.
But if Houston is actually the team I think they are, this is exactly the matchup where they finally get right.
Give me Texans -3.
Jets +3.5 at Bears
Records: NYJ 1-2, CHI 2-1
I cannot believe I’m about to say something positive about the New York Jets.
They haven’t been terrible.
There. I said it.
They lost 20-17 to Green Bay in overtime and then lost 31-24 in Detroit after coming back from 14 down.
Geno Smith went 31-for-37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit. Garrett Wilson had 107 yards. Rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq had 105.
They’re 1-2, but they’re playing competitive football.
For this franchise, they should probably hang a banner.
Chicago is coming off a 27-7 Monday night win over Philadelphia behind Case Keenum.
Case Keenum.
He’s 38 years old.
I’m pretty sure his rookie season was broadcast in standard definition.
He played great.
And naturally, he’s going back to the bench.
Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, so Tyson Bagent is expected to start after dealing with a concussion.
That would give Chicago its third starting quarterback in three weeks.
They’re also on a short week and missing Braxton Jones, Kyler Gordon, Noah Sewell and Shemar Turner.
At some point you stop calling it “next man up” and start asking if anybody in Section 312 brought cleats.
And Chicago is still laying 3.5.
That’s the bet for me.
The Jets are banged up too. Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham are out, and Sadiq is questionable.
Their running game has been shit.
And somehow the Jets defense has gone 20 consecutive games without an interception.
Twenty.
You could throw the ball underhand directly at a Jets corner and there’s a decent chance he’d knock it down.
That might be the most Jets stat I’ve ever heard.
Ben Johnson also knows how to make backup quarterbacks look competent, so there’s absolutely a world where Tyson Bagent ruins my Sunday.
Still, give me Jets +3.5.
Buccaneers +3.5 vs Packers
Records: GB 1-2, TB 0-3
Alright.
Here comes the one that makes you question why you gamble.
Tampa Bay +3.5 with Jalon Daniels starting at quarterback.
I know.
Trust me.
I fucking know.
Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb, which means the undrafted rookie is making his first NFL start.
Daniels has attempted three passes in an NFL regular-season game.
Three.
One went to his own team.
One went to the other team.
I don’t know what happened to the third one, but hopefully it was incredible.
The market moved about five points toward Green Bay after the Baker injury, and basically everyone is looking at this game and saying the same thing:
“How the hell can you bet Tampa?”
Easy.
Because I don’t think Green Bay is good enough to be laying this number on the road.
The Packers have scored 22, 20 and 14 points. They rank 28th in EPA per play. They’re 0-3 ATS. They just lost at home to Atlanta.
And now Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are both out.
So we have a bad Green Bay offense going on the road and being asked to win comfortably with an offensive line that already treats protecting Jordan Love like an optional part of the job description.
No thanks.
Todd Bowles’ defense has not been Tampa’s problem. Daniels can move, he has a big arm, and maybe Bowles can design a game plan where the rookie only has to make a handful of throws and spend the rest of the afternoon trying not to shit his pants.
That’s really all I’m asking.
Because yes, there is an extremely obvious downside here.
He’s an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start behind an offensive line that has already allowed 13 sacks.
If he turns the ball over twice in the first quarter, please do not screenshot this article and send it to me.
I already know.
Rueben Bain Jr. and Benjamin Morrison are out too, which doesn’t help.
This is not me planting my flag and telling you Jalon Daniels is the future of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I don’t even know if he’s the future of next week.
I’m fading Green Bay.
That’s it.
Give me Buccaneers +3.5.
And may God have mercy on all of us.
Lions -3.5 at Panthers
Records: DET 2-1, CAR 1-2
Sunday Night Football
The Carolina Panthers injury report currently reads like the opening credits of a movie.
Jaycee Horn is on IR.
Mike Jackson is on IR.
Xavier Legette is out.
Damien Lewis is out.
Jalen Coker is questionable.
Monroe Freeling is questionable.
Bryce Young is playing on a bad knee.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
And this is a particularly bad week to have offensive line problems.
Cleveland pressured Bryce Young on 26 of his 50 dropbacks last week.
Fifty-two percent.
Basically every other time he dropped back, somebody was trying to kill him.
Carolina ranks 25th in pass block win rate.
Now Detroit comes to town after recording five sacks and 24 pressures against the Jets, with one of the best pass rushes in football.
So we’ve got a quarterback playing on one good knee behind an offensive line that couldn’t protect him when he had two good knees.
Awesome.
Bryce might want to wear two helmets.
Then Detroit gets the ball.
Jahmyr Gibbs just went for 164 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets, Jared Goff has protected the football, and Carolina is missing both starting corners.
That feels problematic.
Detroit’s secondary does scare me a little. They’ve been leaky, and Carolina can attack the middle of the field with the tight ends.
But matchup for matchup, this is my favorite play on the card.
Give me Lions -3.5.
Card Summary
Kickoff
Play
The Short Version
Sun 1:00
Cardinals -2.5
The Giants are 2-1. I reject reality.
Sun 1:00
Texans -3
Dallas couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
Sun 1:00
Jets +3.5
I hate that I like the Jets.
Sun 1:00
Buccaneers +3.5
Absolutely disgusting.
Sun 8:20
Lions -3.5
Bryce Young may need two helmets.
Five games.
Two favorites I actually like, two underdogs catching points, and one Buccaneers bet that I fully expect to make me question every decision that led me to this point in my life.
Check the inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, especially Josh Sweat, Jalen Coker and whoever Chicago decides is playing quarterback this week.
And if Tampa is down 17-0 after the first quarter, this website will temporarily be unavailable for maintenance.
