College Football Week 1 Preview and Predictions: Four Picks for Opening Weekend
College football is officially back for everybody, and Week 1 has given us a four-day buffet of games to celebrate. We start Friday night with Miami flying across the country to play Stanford, get Clemson and LSU fighting over who the real Tigers are on Saturday, and then finish with a loaded Sunday slate.
Naturally, we have found four opportunities to immediately convince ourselves that we understand everything about teams that have either played once or not at all.
We also went 3-1 with our official selections in Week 0, which means we are either completely dialed in or have set ourselves up for a violent correction. There is only one way to find out.
Let’s get into the Week 1 card.
No. 7 Miami at Stanford
Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Miami begins its season as one of the biggest favorites on the board, and it is not difficult to understand why. The Hurricanes played for a national championship last season, enter this year ranked inside the top 10, and added former Duke quarterback Darian Mensah to lead another potentially explosive offense.
Stanford already has one game under its belt and looked much more competent than expected in its 37-27 victory over Hawaii. Michigan transfer Davis Warren completed 22 of 34 passes for 310 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. The Cardinal moved the ball, avoided disastrous mistakes, and gave us at least some evidence that the offense will function under new head coach Tavita Pritchard.
Miami is a completely different test.
Stanford’s offensive line is already banged up, and Miami should be able to make Warren uncomfortable without blitzing everybody in the stadium. The Cardinal moved the ball against Hawaii. Doing it against Miami is another story.
I originally liked Stanford with the points, but taking the under allows us to bet on the same basic idea without relying on Stanford to score enough to cover. Miami should win comfortably, but this is Mensah’s first start in a new offense on the opposite side of the country. The Hurricanes do not need to empty the playbook, play at warp speed, or chase 50 points.
Get ahead, let the defense ruin Stanford’s night, and get back on the plane before Mario Cristobal finds an unnecessary fourth-down decision to overthink.
Stanford struggles to reach the end zone, Miami shuts things down after building a comfortable lead, and this game stays under the number.
The Pick: Under 47.5
Predicted Score: Miami 34, Stanford 10
Clemson at No. 11 LSU
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Lane Kiffin era at LSU begins under the lights in Death Valley, because apparently a calm and uneventful debut would have been too much to ask.
Both programs enter the season with significant changes, but LSU appears much better equipped to handle them. Kiffin inherited one of the country’s most talented rosters, aggressively added to it through the transfer portal, and now gets to unveil his offense in one of the best home environments in college football.
Clemson is trying to recover from a disappointing 7-6 season. Christopher Vizzina will make only the second start of his college career after spending the past three seasons behind Cade Klubnik. He played well in his lone start, but facing LSU in Baton Rouge is a very different assignment.
Dabo Swinney named Vizzina the starter over freshman Tait Reynolds, although he indicated that both quarterbacks could play.
As Nick Saban once said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you got no quarterback.”
At least I think Nick Saban said it. It sounds like something he would say, so we are giving him credit.
Rotating quarterbacks in Death Valley sounds like one of those ideas that seems reasonable during a Tuesday press conference and significantly less reasonable when nobody can hear the play call.
Clemson still has talent. Its experienced offensive line and quality receivers should prevent LSU from completely suffocating the offense. However, the Tigers are asking an inexperienced quarterback, or possibly two of them, to keep pace with a Lane Kiffin offense that should immediately create explosive-play opportunities.
There may be some early sloppiness as LSU adjusts to a new system and a roster assembled from several different places. Once the game settles down, LSU’s offensive talent and home-field advantage should become too much.
A couple of early Clemson three-and-outs could turn this into a long night very quickly. LSU gets rolling, forces Clemson to play from behind, and makes a statement in Kiffin’s debut.
There is only room for one functional group of Tigers in Death Valley.
The Pick: LSU -10
Predicted Score: LSU 38, Clemson 13
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field
Notre Dame and Wisconsin meeting at Lambeau Field sounds like the kind of game that should be played in 10-degree weather with snow falling and both quarterbacks reconsidering every decision that brought them there.
Instead, we are getting it on the first Sunday of September.
Notre Dame enters the season ranked fourth after winning 10 regular-season games in 2025. The Irish return quarterback CJ Carr, one of the country’s most efficient passers last season, along with enough talent on defense to make another serious run at the College Football Playoff.
Wisconsin should be improved, but this is a miserable way to start the season. The Badgers are 20.5-point underdogs and have a team total of 14.5. I am not interested in laying nearly three touchdowns in a season opener, but I am very interested in betting against Wisconsin’s offense.
This is not me declaring that Wisconsin will be hopeless all season. The Badgers may be perfectly respectable once they begin playing teams that are not Notre Dame.
That does not help them Sunday.
The Irish should control the line of scrimmage and force Wisconsin to put together long, mistake-free drives. That means no sacks, no penalties, no turnovers, and no wasted possessions. Asking this offense to do all four against one of the country’s best defenses feels ambitious.
Luke Fickell will probably try to shorten the game, run the football, and avoid turning this into a track meet. That is a reasonable plan if the goal is to avoid public humiliation. It is not especially helpful when Wisconsin needs to reach 15 points.
The Badgers might kick three field goals. They might score one touchdown. I am not convinced they can do both.
Notre Dame handles its business, Wisconsin spends most of the night unsuccessfully attempting to cross midfield, and Lambeau wonders why nobody scheduled this game for January.
The Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Under 14.5
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 42, Wisconsin 9
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET in Nashville
Week 1 closes with its only matchup between two ranked teams, as Ole Miss faces Louisville at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
Louisville has become a trendy upset selection, and I understand it. Jeff Brohm can coach offense, the Cardinals have plenty of talent, and Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz has legitimate upside at quarterback.
He also has 36 career pass attempts and is making his first collegiate start against a top-10 opponent.
Maybe Kienholz is immediately great. Brohm has earned the benefit of the doubt with quarterbacks, and Louisville could absolutely become an ACC contender.
I would simply prefer to see it before trusting a quarterback with 36 career pass attempts against Ole Miss.
The Rebels do not have to imagine what their offense might become. They already know. Trinidad Chambliss returns after leading Ole Miss on a deep playoff run last season. He is accurate, experienced, and dangerous when a play breaks down. Kewan Lacy gives the Rebels a proven running back who can punish Louisville if it becomes too focused on containing Chambliss.
The game being played in Nashville should not create much of a disadvantage for Ole Miss. Its fans will travel, and the offense should be much more comfortable early while Louisville works through the inevitable issues that come with breaking in a new quarterback.
Louisville has become the trendy upset pick because everybody wants to be the person who saw it coming. Sometimes the obvious favorite is obvious for a reason.
Kienholz will make a few plays and give Louisville fans plenty to feel good about. Ole Miss will make more of them.
The Rebels pull away in the second half and send the trendy upset pick home without the upset.
The Pick: Ole Miss -6.5
Predicted Score: Ole Miss 34, Louisville 24
Final Thoughts
Week 1 betting requires more imagination than I would normally prefer. Rosters have changed, quarterbacks have transferred, coaches are installing new systems, and most of our information comes from practice reports written by people who are not allowed to tell us anything useful.
We still found four bets.
We went 3-1 in Week 0. No pressure, but 7-1 would look significantly better.
Official Week 1 Picks
- Miami-Stanford under 47.5
- LSU -10
- Wisconsin team total under 14.5
- Ole Miss -6.5
