College Football Week 2 Preview
Week 2 is here, and we’re officially at the point of the college football season where one bad Saturday apparently means everything we thought we knew all offseason belongs in the garbage.
Team looks good in Week 1? National championship contender.
Team looks bad? Fire everybody, bench the quarterback, shut down the program and start scouting the 2027 recruiting class.
Naturally, the betting market gets dragged into the insanity too.
I’m not going to force 10 picks onto the card just because there are 10 games on TV worth watching. Four games jumped out to me this week, and if I don’t have an opinion on the rest, I’m not going to pretend I developed one after staring at the spread for six minutes.
We’ve got a Friday night rivalry, a massive overreaction in Ann Arbor, an Iowa-Iowa State line that looks like somebody accidentally added a touchdown, and Texas getting another crack at Ohio State.
Let’s get into it.
Friday Night: Missouri -5.5 at Kansas
I’m laying the 5.5 with Missouri on Friday night, and a big reason why is Austin Simmons.
I’ve been intrigued by Simmons for a while.
Remember, this is the guy who originally won the starting quarterback job at Ole Miss over Trinidad Chambliss. Lane Kiffin and that staff had both quarterbacks in the building every single day. They watched every practice, every rep, every meeting and probably knew what these guys ate for breakfast.
If Simmons initially did enough to win that competition, they clearly saw something in him.
And I can see why.
The arm talent is there. Simmons can push the ball vertically, attack outside the numbers and give Missouri an offense that doesn’t have to live on eight-yard completions and hope somebody eventually falls down.
I’m not asking him to look like prime Joe Burrow here. It’s a rivalry game on the road. Be composed, protect the football, hit the throws that are there and let the better roster take over.
Kansas should make this uncomfortable early because that’s what rivalry games do. Weird things happen, crowds lose their minds and somebody inevitably commits a personal foul after a four-yard run.
But over four quarters, I trust Missouri more.
If Simmons gives them a clean game, I think the Tigers eventually create some separation.
The Pick: Missouri -5.5
Michigan +5.5 vs. Oklahoma
This is my favorite betting spot of the week.
Not necessarily my favorite team.
Not necessarily the team I think is going to look the prettiest.
My favorite number.
There’s a difference.
A week ago, on the look-ahead lines, Michigan was close to a field-goal favorite in this matchup.
Seven days later?
Michigan +5.5. At home.
Excuse me?
Did Bryce Underwood lose an arm? Did half the offensive line get suspended? Did the NCAA discover Connor Stalions hiding in Oklahoma’s practice facility wearing a fake mustache?
No.
Michigan just looked like absolute garbage last week.
And apparently that was enough for the market to swing this matchup by essentially a touchdown.
I’m not buying it.
There were no major injuries that fundamentally changed Michigan’s roster. There was no off-field disaster. Nothing happened that should make Michigan this dramatically worse relative to Oklahoma than they were one week ago.
It was an ugly performance.
That’s it.
And frankly, the scare might have been the best thing that could have happened to Michigan this early in the season.
Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in college football. If there are issues to fix, I trust him to identify them. If guys walked into Week 1 thinking everything was going to be easy, I’m guessing that problem has been addressed too.
Bryce Underwood is the key.
The talent is obvious. What Michigan needs now is consistency. Make the routine throws. Stay on schedule. Don’t turn every third-and-six into an adventure.
Oklahoma’s defense is good, and I expect them to make Underwood uncomfortable. But that’s also why I like having 5.5 points.
This has all the ingredients of a tight, physical game where neither offense is consistently marching 80 yards down the field.
Oklahoma might win.
But are they suddenly more than a touchdown better relative to Michigan than the market believed they were one week ago?
I don’t see it.
Sometimes Week 1 gives you important new information.
Sometimes Week 1 gives you an overreaction.
Give me the overreaction.
The Pick: Michigan +5.5
Iowa State +14.5 vs. Iowa
Fourteen and a half points.
In Iowa-Iowa State.
What are we doing here?
Yes, Matt Campbell is gone. I understand that Iowa State is entering a different era.
But Jimmy Rogers is no slouch, and unless the rules of the Cy-Hawk game have suddenly changed, I’m pretty sure both teams are still required to drag us into three hours of football that looks like it was filmed in 1947.
This rivalry is notorious for being close.
Field goals matter. Field position matters. Punting somehow becomes appointment television. Every first down feels like somebody just completed a 70-yard touchdown pass.
And now you want me to lay 14.5 points?
No thank you.
Iowa can absolutely be the better team. They can control the line of scrimmage, win the turnover battle, win the field-position battle and walk out with the trophy.
They can also do all of those things and win 20-13.
That’s the beauty, or depending on your perspective, the psychological torture, of Iowa football.
Getting more than two touchdowns in this rivalry is simply too much for me to pass up.
Iowa State doesn’t have to be great.
They just have to keep this thing ugly.
Thankfully, they’re playing Iowa.
The Pick: Iowa State +14.5
Texas -1.5 vs. Ohio State
Revenge game?
How about double revenge.
Two years ago, Ohio State knocked Texas out of the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Then came last year’s season opener, when these two teams gave us one of the most disgusting and underwhelming 60 minutes of football I can remember watching between two supposed national-title contenders.
If you enjoyed that game, there’s a good chance you also enjoy airport delays.
Now we head to Austin.
Ohio State is loaded. There’s really no intelligent argument against that. They have future NFL players everywhere, stars at premium positions and first-round talent throughout the roster.
There’s just one problem.
So does Texas.
When the talent gap is basically nonexistent, I start looking for the smaller things that can separate two teams.
Home field matters.
Quarterback play matters.
And a healthy Arch Manning matters a lot.
We started to see Manning really click late last season, and this feels like the year where the flashes need to turn into something more consistent.
The arm has never been the concern. We know he can make throws.
What makes him particularly dangerous in this matchup is his mobility. Against a defense as talented as Ohio State’s, the original play isn’t always going to work. There will be pressure. Receivers will be covered. Drives are going to come down to third-and-seven when everything breaks down.
That’s where Manning’s legs can become a major factor.
Sometimes the difference between beating a defense like Ohio State and punting six times is your quarterback turning a dead play into eight yards.
I expect this game to be extremely close. I don’t think Texas is substantially better than Ohio State, and I definitely don’t think Ohio State suddenly forgot how to recruit five-star football players.
But this time the game is in Austin.
Texas has comparable talent throughout the roster. Manning appears healthy. He looked increasingly comfortable late last season. And after losing to Ohio State in consecutive seasons, I don’t think anybody in that building needs a motivational speech.
At -1.5, we’re basically being asked one question:
Who wins?
I’m taking Texas.
And hopefully this time these two teams remember they’re allowed to score touchdowns.
The Pick: Texas -1.5
Final Thoughts
That’s it.
Four games.
No 14-leg parlay. No “official lean” on the Louisiana Tech team total because I got bored Thursday night. No pretending I have a strong opinion on every game from noon until Hawaii kicks off at 11:59 PM.
These are simply the four numbers that stood out to me the most.
Missouri is a bet on Austin Simmons and a roster I trust to eventually separate from Kansas.
Michigan is almost entirely about buying an absurd Week 1 overreaction.
Iowa State +14.5 is a bet that Iowa-Iowa State continues to look like two teams fighting over the last available generator after the apocalypse.
And Texas -1.5 is my bet that a healthy Arch Manning, home field and two years of Ohio State-related frustration are enough to finally get the Longhorns over the hump.
Four games.
Four plays.
Now all we need is for college football to behave normally for one Saturday.
Enjoy the games
