CFB Week 11 Picks: Double Costanza and Saturday Chaos

November college football is a beautiful disaster.

We’ve got coaches who look like they’re actively negotiating their own buyouts, quarterbacks who have forgotten which color jersey they’re supposed to throw to, defensive coordinators getting publicly humiliated, and undefeated teams trying to survive another Saturday without stepping on a landmine.

The College Football Playoff picture is getting tighter, the pressure is getting heavier, and somewhere in America, a fanbase is about to spend its entire Saturday screaming at a 19-year-old kid who has a chemistry exam on Monday.

We’ve got nine plays on the regular card, a few programs in complete disarray, and something we’ve never attempted before at Mentally on IR.

The first-ever DOUBLE COSTANZA.

George is taking over the operation this weekend. God help us all.

Let’s get into it.

Auburn -2.5 at Mississippi State

Let me make something perfectly clear. This is not an endorsement of Auburn football. I’m not suddenly under the impression that the Tigers are some sleeping giant ready to steamroll the SEC.

This is a straight fade of a Mississippi State offense that apparently needs Kamario Taylor to remember what a touchdown looks like.

Taylor is dealing with a foot injury, and without him, the Bulldogs offense has all the explosiveness of a wet bag of cement. I’ve seen more offensive creativity from a guy trying to parallel park a U-Haul.

The receipts are downright offensive.

Mississippi State has lost five straight games:

25-23 to Vanderbilt. 31-3 at Texas. 23-15 to Oklahoma. 31-0 at LSU. 56-23 to Alabama.

Three points in Austin. A big fat donut in Baton Rouge.

You could’ve bet Mississippi State under 3.5 points in two of those games and actually had to sweat it out. That’s not an offense. That’s a hostage situation.

Now, Auburn isn’t exactly rolling out the 1985 Chicago Bears, but the Tigers do two things Mississippi State has struggled with: protect the football and take it away.

Auburn has 14 takeaways and a plus-3 turnover margin. Mississippi State has eight takeaways and sits at minus-4.

And unlike Mississippi State, Auburn has actually demonstrated the ability to win a difficult road game, beating Georgia 27-24 in Athens.

This isn’t complicated. I don’t need Auburn to put on an offensive clinic. I don’t need trick plays, flea-flickers, or some inspirational halftime speech worthy of a Disney movie.

I need Auburn to score a few touchdowns, avoid doing anything catastrophically stupid, and let Mississippi State continue doing whatever the hell it has been doing offensively.

The number is under a field goal. I’ll take my chances.

Ring those cowbells, Starkville. They don’t score touchdowns either.

Northwestern at Ohio State: Under 44

First, let’s establish something before the Ohio State fanbase starts throwing furniture.

Luke Fahey is not the problem in Columbus.

The kid has been doing his job, and Ryan Day is sticking with him over Tavien St. Clair for a reason. If Buckeye fans are looking for someone to blame for the recent collapse, they should probably direct their attention to the other side of the football.

More specifically, a man named Matt Patricia.

Remember when Patricia was a genius?

A year ago, his 2025 Ohio State defense ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring and total defense. Ryan Day called him a home run hire. People were practically ready to build the guy a statue.

Fast forward to November 2026, and the Buckeye defense looks like one of Patricia’s old Detroit Lions teams.

Ohio State has dropped two straight, losing 30-18 to USC before blowing a 14-0 lead against Oregon and eventually losing 41-28.

Those were the defense’s two worst performances of the season. Back to back.

The USC game was particularly embarrassing because Patricia had TWO WEEKS to prepare.

Two weeks!

That’s enough time to learn conversational Italian, assemble a complicated piece of IKEA furniture, and get halfway through a divorce. Somehow, it wasn’t enough time for Ohio State to figure out how to cover a seam route.

And the pass rush? Historically bad by Ohio State standards.

Dylan Raiola even said he saw “seams everywhere” on film.

When opposing quarterbacks are publicly reviewing your defensive coverage like disappointed Yelp customers, something has gone horribly wrong.

So why am I betting an under involving a defense I’ve just spent five paragraphs burying?

Because Northwestern is exactly the opponent Patricia needs.

The Wildcats aren’t built to exploit a struggling secondary with explosive downfield passing. They want to run the football, shorten the game, control possession, and turn Saturday afternoon into a four-quarter dental appointment.

And I expect Patricia to throw everything he has at them.

He’s publicly taken responsibility for the defensive struggles, and there’s nothing more dangerous than a proud defensive coordinator who’s spent two weeks getting roasted by the entire state of Ohio.

Well, except maybe Matt Patricia with two weeks to prepare. We’ve already seen how that goes.

On the other side, Ohio State doesn’t need Fahey to throw for 400 yards. Run the football, protect possession, avoid mistakes, and let the defense regain some dignity.

Northwestern will happily chew clock. Ohio State should be perfectly content winning an ugly game.

Noon kickoff. November in Columbus. One team trying to turn the game into a wrestling match and another desperate to stop the bleeding.

I’m seeing something in the neighborhood of 24-13.

Matt Patricia gets to keep his job for another week, Ohio State fans get to lower their blood pressure, and we cash an under.

Everybody wins.

Duke +14 at Miami

Duke has spent the last two weeks beating opponents like they personally owe the university money.

The Blue Devils dismantled NC State 41-3 and followed that up by beating Boston College 47-2.

That’s a combined 88-5.

Boston College scored a safety.

A SAFETY.

Their entire offensive contribution was watching somebody else get tackled in the wrong end zone. Congratulations, fellas. Put it on the recruiting brochure.

Now, before we start fitting Duke for a national championship ring, there’s an important caveat.

Their strength of schedule ranks 111th in FBS.

They’ve been feasting at the kids’ table. Beating up on bad teams doesn’t automatically make you a great team.

But here’s the thing: Miami’s defense hasn’t exactly been inspiring confidence either.

The Hurricanes just lost 31-24 at Notre Dame after surrendering 35 points to both North Carolina and Florida State.

Giving up 35 to North Carolina should be grounds for an emergency faculty meeting in Coral Gables.

Then we have the subplot that makes this game especially interesting.

Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is facing his former team.

Normally, that’s the kind of revenge narrative television producers spend an entire week drooling over. The quarterback returns to face the program he left. The emotional buildup. The dramatic music. The obligatory interview about how it’s just another game.

Except Duke knows this guy.

They’ve seen his tendencies, his habits, his strengths, and his weaknesses. And this isn’t some defense held together with duct tape and positive affirmations.

Duke ranks 17th in EPA per pass and 10th in EPA per rush.

That’s a legitimate defense.

I’m not saying Duke walks into Miami and wins outright. The Hurricanes have more talent, and the Blue Devils are stepping up significantly in competition.

But two touchdowns?

That’s a lot of points against a team playing this well defensively, especially when Miami has shown a remarkable ability to make life unnecessarily difficult for itself.

Duke doesn’t need to win.

It just needs to make Miami uncomfortable for four quarters.

And something tells me the Hurricanes are perfectly capable of helping with that.

Give me the Blue Devils and the two touchdowns.

Oregon -10 vs. Michigan

There are disappointing football seasons, there are disastrous football seasons, and then there’s whatever the hell is happening in Ann Arbor.

Michigan has gone from “we’re rebuilding” to “please make the bad man stop hurting us.”

And somehow, the drama off the field has become more entertaining than the actual football.

When Kyle Whittingham arrived, it looked like a perfect marriage.

A tough, no-nonsense program builder. A man who’d spent years establishing a culture at Utah. Someone who could bring discipline, physicality, and stability to one of college football’s most recognizable programs.

Nine games later, he looks like a guy sitting by his phone praying for someone to tell him he’s been fired.

At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he walked into the locker room every morning looking for a red tag on his locker.

Michigan is 5-4, and last week’s loss to Michigan State might have been the moment the entire operation officially went off the rails.

The Wolverines entered as heavy favorites and somehow handed their in-state rivals their first Big Ten victory of Pat Fitzgerald’s first season.

That’s the kind of loss that gets a coach escorted out of the building before the postgame press conference.

But Whittingham wasn’t finished.

On Saturday, he indicated he’d wait until the end of the season before making staff changes.

By Sunday, offensive coordinator Jason Beck was unemployed.

Apparently, “end of the season” means whenever Kyle finishes his morning coffee.

And Beck isn’t exactly leaving empty-handed. His reported buyout is believed to be the largest ever for a college assistant.

Imagine being so bad at your job that your employer pays you a fortune to stop showing up.

That’s not a firing. That’s winning the lottery.

Then, because apparently the Michigan athletic department hadn’t suffered enough embarrassment for one week, Whittingham decided to start taking shots at Oregon.

He complained that the Ducks can “outbid everybody” for recruits, and Dan Lanning wasted absolutely no time firing back.

Brilliant strategy, Kyle.

You’re taking a dysfunctional 5-4 team into Autzen Stadium, your offense is in shambles, you’ve just fired your coordinator, and you decide the best use of your preparation time is picking a fight with the opposing head coach.

Nothing screams “I’m completely focused on Saturday” like starting a public argument with the guy who’s about to try hanging 40 on you.

And the actual football matchup isn’t much prettier.

Michigan ranks 104th in EPA per rush and 90th in rushing success rate.

That’s a serious problem when your entire offensive identity is supposed to revolve around physicality and running the football.

Oregon’s biggest defensive vulnerability is against the run, but Michigan has shown little evidence that it can exploit it consistently.

That’s like finding out your opponent can’t swim when you don’t own a boat.

Meanwhile, Oregon seems to have figured things out.

After losing Dante Moore early in the season, Dylan Raiola needed time to settle in. Lately, he’s looked like a quarterback who finally stopped overthinking everything and started playing football.

He threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern, then followed it up with 257 yards and two scores in Oregon’s 41-28 win over Ohio State.

The confidence is there. The rhythm is there. And most importantly, the offense looks like it actually has a plan.

There are two things that worry me.

First, the total is only 38.5, and the under is 7-2 in Michigan games. Laying 10 points in a game expected to be a rock fight isn’t exactly my favorite hobby.

One meaningless Michigan field goal in garbage time and I’ll be explaining to my television why it owes me money.

Second, Michigan has a new offensive play-caller following Beck’s firing. Sometimes that creates a temporary spark. New ideas, different formations, players suddenly remembering they’re allowed to move forward.

But I don’t think a new guy holding the clipboard fixes everything wrong with this offense.

Not in one week. Not in Autzen Stadium.

And certainly not against an Oregon team that’s starting to hit its stride.

Whittingham looks mentally halfway out the door, Michigan looks completely lost, and Oregon has every reason to make a statement.

Ducks by two scores.

If Kyle gets his buyout afterward, everybody goes home happy.

Indiana -8 vs. USC

I know.

I KNOW.

Before anybody starts yelling at me, I’m fully aware that Indiana is 1-8 against the spread this season.

ONE AND EIGHT.

Betting Indiana this year has been like dating somebody who keeps promising they’ve changed.

You believe them. You give them another chance. You convince yourself this time will be different.

And then three hours later, you’re sitting on the couch wondering how you fell for the same bullshit again.

The Hoosiers needed overtime to beat Michigan and Minnesota in consecutive weeks.

Minnesota!

In overtime!

The defending national champions have spent most of this season treating inferior opponents like annoying chores they don’t particularly feel like completing.

But USC hasn’t exactly been a bettor’s paradise either.

The Trojans are 7-2 straight up but just 3-6 against the spread.

And unlike some of Indiana’s recent opponents, USC has a quarterback who can actually hurt you.

Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,524 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions while completing 66.9% of his passes.

He’s dangerous, he’s experienced, and Indiana’s secondary ranks 28th in opponent EPA per pass.

This isn’t going to be some relaxing Saturday afternoon where Indiana wins by 30 and everybody starts preparing dinner in the third quarter.

So why lay eight?

Because 1-8 against the spread isn’t a permanent personality trait.

It’s a streak.

Indiana has been playing down to its competition all season, and eventually that catches up with a team. But this is different.

USC is a legitimate opponent. There’s national attention, conference positioning, and College Football Playoff seeding hanging in the balance.

Nobody in that Indiana locker room needs to be reminded that this game matters.

For once, the Hoosiers have an opponent worthy of their full attention.

And I think that’s exactly what they need.

There’s also something to be said for a defending national champion that’s spent weeks hearing how overrated it is, how lucky it’s been, and how the magic is finally wearing off.

At some point, somebody gets tired of hearing it.

At some point, the regression gods show up with a check.

I’m betting that happens Saturday in Bloomington.

Indiana finally plays like the team everybody expected to see all season.

Eight points is a substantial number against a dangerous USC offense, but I’m willing to pay it.

Just don’t make me regret trusting you again, Indiana.

We’ve been through enough together.

Texas +4.5 at LSU

This is less a bet on Texas and more a bet that LSU has completely checked out.

And based on what we’ve seen lately, I’m not exactly taking a gigantic leap of faith.

The Tigers have spent the last month looking like a football team that would rather be doing literally anything else.

They lost 35-34 in overtime to Kentucky on October 10.

Kentucky.

Then Alabama rolled into Death Valley last week and beat them 31-13 in a game that somehow felt even uglier than the final score.

LSU went 0-for-4 on fourth down, 5-of-14 on third down, and managed 77 rushing yards on 33 carries.

That’s 2.3 yards per attempt.

I’ve seen grocery carts move more efficiently through a crowded parking lot.

Even Lane Kiffin sounded like a man updating his LinkedIn profile, explaining afterward that you have to score touchdowns in the red zone.

Groundbreaking analysis, Lane.

Next week he’ll explain that teams generally prefer having more points than their opponents.

And then there’s Sam Leavitt.

My God, Sam.

What happened to you?

Two years ago, Leavitt dragged Arizona State to a Big 12 championship and the College Football Playoff as a redshirt freshman.

He went toe-to-toe with Texas in the CFP and looked like one of the next great quarterback prospects in college football.

The arm talent was there. The confidence was there. The future looked ridiculously bright.

Now?

He looks like somebody learned how to play quarterback from a Madden tutorial with the sound turned off.

The injuries have piled up, including right foot Lisfranc surgery, and the decision-making has deteriorated right along with his health.

By mid-October, he had thrown an FBS-worst eight interceptions in six games.

He threw three against Louisiana Tech.

LOUISIANA TECH.

That’s not a quarterback stat line. That’s a cry for help.

And now he’s dealing with a hamstring injury suffered against Texas A&M.

As if the situation needed another complication, Leonard Fournette has already weighed in, saying he doesn’t believe Leavitt is the answer.

When one of your program’s most beloved former players is publicly questioning whether you’re the guy, the honeymoon is officially over.

Now Leavitt gets to face a Texas defense allowing just 20.3 points per game.

Wonderful.

A quarterback struggling with turnovers, playing on a bad hamstring, against a defense that can generate pressure.

What could possibly go wrong?

Every third-and-long feels like a coin flip between a sack and an interception, and the Texas pass rush is going to spend Saturday night calling heads.

Meanwhile, Texas is 7-2, has won three straight, and just beat Missouri by 14.

Arch Manning returns to Louisiana with more than 2,000 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

And you know there are going to be people in that stadium watching him and wondering what life would’ve looked like if he’d chosen purple and gold.

Arch doesn’t need to be spectacular.

He just needs to be the better quarterback on the field.

And right now, that bar isn’t particularly high.

My one legitimate concern is Texas’ 14 turnovers this season. The Longhorns have shown they can get careless, and there’s no faster way to keep a struggling opponent alive than handing it extra possessions.

But I’m getting 4.5 points with the team that’s trending upward against a team that looks like it’s already planning its offseason vacations.

I’ll take that every time.

By the fourth quarter, I expect a decent portion of the LSU crowd to be heading toward Chimes Street.

At least the bars know how to finish a drive.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech: Over 73

If you enjoy defense, discipline, field position, and the beautiful art of a perfectly executed punt, I strongly recommend finding something else to watch Saturday night.

Because this game has the potential to be absolute offensive pornography.

Oklahoma State is playing football like somebody accidentally changed the difficulty setting to Rookie.

The Cowboys average 43.9 points per game, third in FBS.

Last week, they scored FOUR touchdowns in the first quarter against Kansas State.

They led 49-14 at halftime.

FORTY-NINE TO FOURTEEN.

And eventually won 66-28.

Kansas State was down 35 at halftime and probably spent the entire break asking whether the team bus could leave early.

At that point, the coaching staff should’ve just handed everybody a juice box and told them they tried their best.

But here’s the beautiful part about Oklahoma State.

Its defense is almost as entertaining as its offense.

The Cowboys allow 27.2 points per game, ranking 92nd nationally.

These guys don’t stop opponents. They simply try to score so many points that it stops mattering.

Their 51-49 loss at Iowa State looked like a basketball game where somebody forgot to turn on the shot clock.

And now Texas Tech comes to town.

The Red Raiders average 37.6 points per game and have plenty of reasons to play desperate football.

They entered the season as the Big 12 favorite, but now the conference race is tightening, with five teams sitting just one game behind them.

Another loss could be devastating.

So let’s review.

One offense averaging nearly 44 points per game.

Another averaging almost 38.

A defense that treats tackling like an optional extracurricular activity.

Conference championship implications.

And a 9:30 p.m. kickoff in Stillwater, where the crowd will have had approximately 12 hours to prepare itself for complete insanity.

Seventy-three is a big number.

I understand that.

But Oklahoma State has already demonstrated that it can put up 49 points before most people finish their halftime bathroom break.

If both offenses show up, this thing could turn into a track meet before the second quarter.

Bring popcorn, a calculator, and maybe a backup calculator.

We’re going over.

Alabama Team Total Over 33.5 at Vanderbilt

Alabama is No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, fresh off walking into Baton Rouge and beating LSU 31-13.

Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes, the defense handled business, and the Crimson Tide left Death Valley with another important victory.

Now comes Vanderbilt.

And I think this is the week Alabama’s running game finally remembers it’s Alabama’s running game.

For much of the season, the Tide backfield has looked like a waiting room at an orthopedic surgeon’s office.

Injuries have piled up, the offensive line has dealt with its own issues, and the rushing attack hasn’t consistently looked like the dominant force Alabama fans have come to expect.

But reinforcements are arriving.

Five-star freshman EJ Crowell is listed as probable, along with offensive lineman William Sanders.

Kalen DeBoer has already acknowledged how much getting players back helped the offense last week.

And a healthier Alabama offensive line with a talented young running back behind it is a pretty terrifying thought for opposing defensive coordinators.

Especially Vanderbilt’s.

Because once Alabama can establish the run, everything else becomes easier.

Linebackers start creeping toward the line of scrimmage. Safeties get nosy. Defenders start biting on play-action.

And suddenly Keelon Russell is throwing to receivers running around uncovered like it’s a seven-on-seven tournament in June.

The Tide also welcomed captain Germie Coleman-Williams back from a two-game absence, giving Russell another weapon.

And then there’s the revenge factor.

The last time Alabama visited Nashville, Vanderbilt fans tore down the goalposts and threw them into the river.

THE RIVER.

You don’t think Alabama remembers that?

You don’t think there are players in that locker room who would enjoy returning the favor by putting 40 on the scoreboard and making sure those goalposts remain firmly attached to the ground?

This isn’t just another conference game.

It’s a business trip with a side of payback.

Now, there is one concern.

Russell is dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as probable.

If that ankle becomes a problem and Austin Mack has to enter the game, the passing offense could lose some of its rhythm.

That’s worth monitoring.

But assuming Russell is healthy enough to operate the offense, I love the setup.

Alabama is favored by 17.5, and I want 34 points.

A spread that large doesn’t guarantee anything about a team total, but the expected game script certainly supports the idea of Alabama controlling the game and getting plenty of scoring opportunities.

And with the running game potentially getting healthier at exactly the right time, I think the Tide can put this one away early.

I’m not looking for a dramatic fourth-quarter touchdown drive.

I want five touchdowns before the fourth quarter even begins.

Give me 35 by the end of the third, let me enjoy the rest of my Saturday, and leave the goalposts alone this time.

North Texas Team Total Over 37.5 at UTSA

Every week, I look for one number that makes me wonder whether the sportsbook fell asleep while putting the board together.

This week, it’s North Texas.

The game total is 75.5, with North Texas favored by 2.5.

That implies roughly 39 points for the Mean Green.

And the team total we’re being offered?

37.5.

Now, I’m not going to pretend the books are handing out free money like Oprah giving away cars. There’s a reason every number exists, and the market usually knows what it’s doing.

But I still like getting a point and a half below the implied total in a matchup that looks built for scoring.

Eight of North Texas’ nine games have gone over.

EIGHT OF NINE.

At some point, that’s no longer a coincidence. That’s a lifestyle.

The Mean Green play fast, throw constantly, and generally treat the idea of a conservative offensive game plan as a personal insult.

Tayven Jackson went 43-of-57 for 483 yards and three touchdowns against Texas State earlier this season.

Fifty-seven pass attempts.

The man throws the football like he’s getting paid by the attempt.

And this isn’t some meaningless November game between two teams counting the days until basketball season.

North Texas and UTSA have legitimate stakes in the American Conference championship race.

Both teams have reasons to be aggressive, and neither can afford to sit around waiting for the other to make a mistake.

That’s exactly the kind of environment I want when I’m betting an offense to reach 38 points.

The one thing I don’t want is North Texas getting overly conservative with a lead. Nothing kills a team-total over faster than a coach suddenly deciding he’s Vince Lombardi and needs to establish the run for 20 consecutive minutes.

But with the way this offense operates, I’m willing to take that risk.

Thirty-eight points.

That’s all I need.

For North Texas, that can be a perfectly ordinary Saturday night.

Give me the Mean Green offense.

And please, Tayven, don’t suddenly discover the joys of handing the football off.

🥨 THE FIRST-EVER DOUBLE COSTANZA 🥨

Ladies and gentlemen, we’re making history.

For those unfamiliar with the greatest betting philosophy ever accidentally invented by a fictional unemployed man, George Costanza once realized that every instinct he’d ever had was wrong.

His solution?

Do the exact opposite.

And somehow, for one glorious episode of Seinfeld, it worked.

A man who couldn’t hold a job, maintain a relationship, or make a decent decision suddenly became a functioning member of society simply by ignoring every thought his brain produced.

It’s beautiful.

It’s idiotic.

It’s the foundation of this entire operation.

And this week, one Costanza isn’t enough.

We’re going DOUBLE COSTANZA.

Two games where every logical instinct is screaming one thing, and we’re marching directly in the opposite direction.

If it fails, I’m moving back in with my parents.

George is in charge.

COSTANZA NO. 1: Texas A&M +3 vs. Tennessee

Every single instinct in my body says Tennessee.

Every. Single. One.

The Volunteers are 7-2.

Texas A&M is 4-5 and a miserable 1-5 in SEC play.

The Aggies just went to Missouri and got their doors blown off 27-6.

Marcel Reed, who was getting Heisman consideration last year, has turned into a quarterback who makes every passing attempt feel like a trust exercise.

He’s thrown for 1,641 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions while completing just 57% of his passes.

He’s been held under 190 passing yards in five of his last six games.

Five of six!

At this point, throwing for 200 yards would probably get him carried off the field like Rudy.

Meanwhile, Tennessee just beat Kentucky 34-6.

The Vols are better on paper. They’re playing better football. They have the better record, the better momentum, and seemingly every reason to cover a field goal.

My brain says Tennessee.

My eyes say Tennessee.

Every reasonable football instinct I’ve developed over years of watching this ridiculous sport says Tennessee.

Which means there’s only one thing left to do.

Take Texas A&M.

Welcome to the Costanza.

Kyle Field is one of the most hostile environments in college football, and Tennessee hasn’t visited College Station since 2016.

That’s a decade.

There are probably Tennessee players who couldn’t locate College Station on a map if you gave them three guesses and a free hint.

The Vols are also dealing with the loss of Tyree Weathersby, another complication heading into a difficult road environment.

And Texas A&M?

The Aggies have absolutely nothing to lose.

Their season has already been a disappointment. The pressure is largely gone. They have a stadium full of people whose favorite recreational activity is screaming at visiting college students.

And somewhere inside Marcel Reed, there has to be one good football game left.

Right?

Please?

I don’t need the Heisman version of Reed. I don’t need 400 passing yards and five touchdowns.

I need him to avoid throwing the football directly to Tennessee defenders and give his team a chance to win at home.

My heart says Tennessee.

My brain says Tennessee.

George says Texas A&M.

And George is in charge.

COSTANZA NO. 2: Arizona +3 vs. Utah

This one might be even more ridiculous.

Utah is 9-0.

NINE AND ZERO.

The Utes are No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings and fresh off a 28-20 victory over BYU in the Holy War.

They’re undefeated, they’re physical, they’re disciplined, and their rushing attack is an absolute nightmare.

Utah averages 41.3 points and 266.3 rushing yards per game.

That’s not a running game.

That’s a construction company.

They show up, tear through whatever is standing in front of them, and leave opposing defensive coordinators staring at the wreckage.

Every logical instinct says lay the three points with Utah.

They’re unbeaten. They’re playing for a national championship. They just beat their biggest rival.

Why complicate things?

Because George Costanza didn’t become a legend by doing what made sense.

We’re taking Arizona.

The Wildcats are 7-2, playing at home in Tucson, averaging 31.5 points per game while allowing just 19.3.

This isn’t some helpless underdog waiting to be sacrificed to the college football gods.

Arizona is a legitimate team.

And the situation is fascinating.

Utah just survived its biggest rivalry game of the season.

The Holy War.

All the emotion, all the buildup, all the pressure of protecting an undefeated record against the one opponent you absolutely cannot stand losing to.

They won.

They celebrated.

They exhaled.

And now they have to travel to the desert for a Saturday night game against a ranked Arizona team that would love nothing more than to ruin their perfect season.

That is a dangerous spot.

Undefeated teams in November are usually one emotional hangover away from disaster.

One slow start. One bad turnover. One missed tackle.

Suddenly the entire season is hanging by a thread, and everybody’s wondering how a three-point favorite got itself into a street fight in Tucson.

Utah might very well be the better team.

In fact, I’m pretty sure it is.

But this isn’t about identifying the better team.

This is about doing the opposite of what every fiber of my being is telling me to do.

George would never lay points with an undefeated team coming off an emotional rivalry victory.

George would take the home underdog, sit in the stands eating a pretzel, and spend three hours explaining why the universe owes him a win.

And frankly, I respect that.

Arizona +3.

The second half of the Double Costanza.

FINAL WORD

Eleven plays.

Nine regular selections.

Two Costanzas.

One Saturday that could either make me look like a genius or have me questioning every decision I’ve made since childhood.

We’ve got Michigan’s coaching staff apparently running a severance-package competition, Matt Patricia trying to remember how defense works, Sam Leavitt attempting to survive another afternoon without throwing the ball to the wrong team, and Alabama heading back to Nashville to make sure the goalposts stay out of the Cumberland River.

And somewhere in the middle of all this, George Costanza is guiding two of our selections.

What could possibly go wrong?

Enjoy the games, enjoy the chaos, and remember: if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.

That’s not gambling advice.

That’s Costanza mathematics.

And if the Double Costanza hits, I’m buying a toupee and demanding George Costanza be named General Manager of the New York Yankees.