There are Sundays when the NFL makes sense. The favorites take care of business, the good quarterbacks play like good quarterbacks, and by the time the late window rolls around, you can almost convince yourself you know what you're doing.
This does not feel like one of those Sundays.
We've got Joe Burrow taking his show overseas, Tom Brady returning to Foxborough with a microphone instead of shoulder pads, a couple of backup quarterbacks being asked to save entire franchises, and a Philadelphia Eagles team that apparently decided winning football games was optional this season.
And somehow, I'm backing that Eagles team.
Welcome to Week 9.
Seven plays on the card. Six that I actually believe in, and one Costanza special, where we identify the logical side, acknowledge that it makes perfect sense, and then bet the exact opposite because George Costanza might have understood football better than half the people getting paid to analyze it.
And before anybody starts questioning the strategy, the Costanza play is sitting at 5-0-1. Apparently, doing the opposite of what makes sense is a legitimate handicapping system.
We start with breakfast football at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, work our way through a Sunday afternoon full of potential disasters, and finish under the lights at Soldier Field.
The Steelers and Titans are on bye, which means two fewer teams capable of ruining your afternoon.
Let's get into it.
BENGALS VS. FALCONS: OVER 52
Madrid | 9:30 a.m. ET
The pick is the over, because Joe Burrow is playing the best football in the league and Atlanta's defense isn't equipped to do much about it.
Cincinnati comes in at 5-2 after a 43-36 overtime track meet with Tennessee. Burrow leads all quarterbacks in passing yards per game (302.1), completion percentage (73%), and touchdowns (20), and he's third in the MVP market at +500.
The Bengals rank third in weighted offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak. That's an offensive machine.
Atlanta is the other half of the equation.
The Falcons just got shut out 16-0 by Tampa Bay in a monsoon, completing eight passes in the process. I'm willing to throw most of that performance in the garbage because the weather was ridiculous. But in a dry stadium, Atlanta is still bringing a defense that has regressed since September against an offense that specializes in punishing exactly that.
Here's the angle I don't think the 52 fully accounts for.
Cincinnati ranks sixth in opponent rush success rate, and Atlanta's offense has struggled against good run defenses all season. Take away the run and the Falcons have to throw.
Throwing means incompletions. Incompletions mean clock stoppages. Clock stoppages mean additional possessions.
And additional possessions with Joe Burrow on the other sideline are generally a terrible idea.
Michael Penix Jr. ranks 32nd of 35 starting quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected. Some of those Atlanta possessions are going to end quickly. But even that can work in our favor if it means Burrow gets the football back.
The trends agree. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams and 3-0 in Cincinnati's last three games.
The concern: If Penix spends the morning throwing footballs into the Spanish countryside and Atlanta goes three-and-out for four quarters, Cincinnati could win 31-13 and leave us staring at the scoreboard wondering what happened.
I need the Falcons to get into the 20s. Against Cincinnati's average-at-best defense, I think they can.
The Pick: Over 52
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS: PATRIOTS -3
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
I'm laying the field goal with New England because this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot disguised as a coin flip.
Both teams are 5-3. Both have efficient quarterbacks, questionable offensive lines, and running games that aren't exactly keeping defensive coordinators awake at night.
On paper, they're remarkably similar.
But the market is treating recent results like they're permanent personality traits.
Green Bay has covered five straight games. Everybody loves the Packers.
New England is 0-3 against the spread in its last three. Everybody has suddenly decided the Patriots aren't very good.
Perfect. Give me New England.
And this isn't just a contrarian play for the sake of being difficult. There's a legitimate matchup advantage here.
Micah Parsons is on PUP and isn't walking through that door. Green Bay's offensive line has been one of the worst in football, and Jordan Love, averaging 280.8 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns, has been asked to carry the entire operation.
That's a lot to put on one guy, especially on the road.
Meanwhile, New England ranks sixth in offensive EPA per play compared to Green Bay's 12th. The over has hit in five consecutive Patriots games.
This offense is moving the football and putting points on the board.
And then there's the Tom Brady factor.
Brady is scheduled to call his first game at Gillette Stadium, which means Foxborough is going to be an absolute zoo. The greatest player in franchise history is coming home, the cameras will be everywhere, and the crowd will be ready to lose its collective mind.
Does that affect offensive EPA? No.
Do I want to be on the wrong side of that atmosphere? Also no.
The concern: Green Bay's defense has been the better unit, ranking seventh in EPA compared to New England's 16th. A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry, and TreVeyon Henderson are all questionable, and if two of those three can't go, the Patriots' offensive advantage gets considerably smaller.
Watch the injury report.
And remember, we're laying exactly three. A field-goal victory gets our money back, not a winning ticket.
Still, this feels like the right spot to buy New England while everybody else is busy buying Green Bay.
The Pick: Patriots -3
JETS AT CHIEFS: CHIEFS TEAM TOTAL OVER 27
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
I'm not interested in laying 9.5 points with Kansas City.
I am, however, very interested in betting that Patrick Mahomes and company score against a Jets defensive front currently being held together with duct tape and positive thinking.
Start with the injuries, because that's the entire foundation of this play.
Defensive tackles T'Vondre Sweat and David Onyemata are both on injured reserve. Harrison Phillips missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury.
That's three interior defensive linemen either unavailable or potentially compromised.
The Jets' best defensive characteristic this season has been their ability to stop the run, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry.
Well, when you start removing the guys responsible for that number, it becomes a lot less impressive.
New York already ranks 21st in opponent weighted EPA per play. This isn't some elite defense that can afford to lose half its interior rotation.
Now look at Kansas City.
The Chiefs are 5-2 but have dropped consecutive games to Seattle and Denver. Kenneth Walker was completely bottled up in both, averaging 2.6 and 3.3 yards per carry.
Those are two of the better defensive fronts in football.
The Jets, in their current condition, are not.
Andy Reid coming home after two consecutive losses, staring at a depleted defensive interior, feels like the kind of matchup where Kansas City remembers how to score touchdowns.
And the number makes sense.
Kansas City is favored by 9.5 with a game total of 46.5. That implies roughly 28 points for the Chiefs.
We're getting over 27.
In other words, our number sits a point below the market's own projection.
The Jets' offense might actually help us here, too.
They just scored a season-high 33 points against the Raiders. If Geno Smith can keep New York remotely competitive, Kansas City has a reason to keep attacking rather than shutting everything down with a big lead.
And if Garrett Wilson can't clear concussion protocol, shorter Jets possessions could mean more opportunities for the Chiefs.
Either scenario works.
The concern: Kansas City's receiving corps is among the weakest in the league, and Walker has shown that this running game can disappear against the wrong opponent. The Chiefs are also just 3-5 ATS.
But we're not asking Kansas City to cover a big number.
We're asking them to score four touchdowns against a defense missing a significant chunk of its interior.
I'll take my chances.
The Pick: Chiefs Team Total Over 27
BRONCOS AT PANTHERS: PANTHERS +3
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
This has letdown written all over it.
Denver is 6-2, sitting atop the AFC West, and coming off an emotional comeback victory over Kansas City.
Division rival. Defending champions. Fourth-quarter comeback. Everybody celebrating.
Beautiful.
Now get on a plane, fly across two time zones, and play a 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff against a Carolina team with a losing record.
That's 11 a.m. according to Denver's body clocks.
Nothing says peak athletic performance quite like asking a team to wake up early, travel across the country, and manufacture enthusiasm for the Carolina Panthers.
Meanwhile, Carolina has had extra time to prepare after playing Thursday night in Week 8.
That's a mini-bye for a roster that desperately needed one.
The Panthers are 3-4 but still hold a half-game lead in the NFC South. They're not playing out the string. They're playing meaningful football, and Bryce Young has this offense ranked inside the top 15 in EPA per play.
Now let's talk about Denver's offense, because that's where the Broncos become a lot less intimidating.
Bo Nix has looked better over the last two games against Arizona and Kansas City. Credit where it's due.
But two good performances don't erase a season of inconsistent quarterback play.
The running back situation isn't helping either.
RJ Harvey, Tyler Badie, and Pat Bryant are all on injured reserve, leaving rookie fourth-rounder Jonah Coleman as the lead back.
That's a lot of responsibility for a young player in a difficult road environment.
The total is 43.5, and both teams have leaned under this season. Denver games are 5-3 to the under, while Carolina games are 4-3.
That suggests a lower-scoring, possession-by-possession game.
And in those games, three points are worth their weight in gold.
Three is the most common final margin in the NFL. If Denver wins by a field goal, we push.
The concern: Denver has been a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS and a perfect 4-0 as a favorite. Their defense ranks inside the top 11 in EPA per play despite facing Mahomes twice, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence.
That's legitimate competition.
Carolina also has serious injury issues. Taylor Moton and Jaycee Horn are on IR, Ikem Ekwonu is on PUP, and Jaelan Phillips is questionable.
The Panthers rank 28th in yards per carry allowed, so Coleman could absolutely have a big afternoon.
But this is the kind of spot where I want the rested home underdog, not the road favorite coming off its biggest win of the season.
Denver might be the better football team.
That doesn't mean Denver is the right side.
The Pick: Panthers +3
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS: CARDINALS +8.5
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Eight and a half points?
With Drew Lock starting at quarterback?
Against a division rival?
What are we doing here?
Seattle is being priced like a juggernaut despite playing like a perfectly ordinary .500 football team.
The Seahawks are 4-4, just 3-5 against the spread, and coming off a loss to Chicago in which they were thoroughly outplayed.
Now Sam Darnold is unavailable, and Drew Lock gets the keys.
Even with Darnold, Seattle's offense was largely Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a prayer. The running game has been inefficient, the offense has struggled to find consistency, and now the backup quarterback is being asked to win by more than a touchdown.
I'm not buying it.
Arizona, on the other hand, might have accidentally found something.
Gardner Minshew came off the bench against Dallas and went 17-of-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns, leading the Cardinals to an overtime victory.
Jacoby Brissett is headed to the bench, and the mustache is officially in charge.
Never underestimate the power of a quarterback who looks like he should be selling used Camaros but somehow keeps winning football games.
And Minshew has a legitimate weapon in Trey McBride, who has a very strong argument as the best tight end in football.
Give a quarterback like Minshew a reliable security blanket, and suddenly an offense that looked completely lifeless starts moving the chains.
Arizona's 3-5 record doesn't tell the entire story, either.
The Cardinals have faced the second-toughest schedule in the league and still rank 13th in offensive success rate.
That's not a terrible football team.
It's certainly not one that should automatically be catching 8.5 points against Drew Lock.
The concern: Arizona's defense is bad. Bottom 10, with an argument for bottom five. Kendrick Bourne is out, and several other contributors are questionable.
The history is ugly, too. Seattle is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
And Minshew is still Gardner Minshew. There's always the possibility that the mustache turns back into a pumpkin.
But I'm getting more than a touchdown against a backup quarterback leading an offense that already had problems.
I'll gladly take the points.
The Pick: Cardinals +8.5
BUCCANEERS AT BEARS: BEARS -6
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just won a professional football game without completing a single pass.
Zero.
Not one.
And now we're supposed to trust them to keep pace with a 6-2 Chicago team on the road in prime time?
Good luck with that.
Yes, Tampa's 16-0 victory over Atlanta came in a monsoon. I'm not pretending the weather had nothing to do with it.
But there's a difference between struggling to throw the football in bad weather and completely abandoning the concept of the forward pass.
Bucky Irving has essentially become Tampa Bay's entire offense.
He's rushed for 728 yards at 5.0 yards per carry, with performances of 165, 106, and 170 yards in the Buccaneers' three victories.
When Irving runs wild, Tampa wins.
When he doesn't, the entire operation starts looking like a high school offense trying to survive without its starting quarterback.
And at this point, I'm not sure anybody knows what Baker Mayfield's arm looks like.
Including Baker Mayfield.
That's a serious problem when you're getting six points on the road.
If Chicago jumps out to an early lead and forces Tampa Bay to throw, what exactly is the backup plan?
More Bucky Irving?
The Bears are 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. They just went into Seattle on Monday Night Football and knocked off the defending champions.
This isn't some cute little early-season story anymore.
Chicago is a legitimate football team.
They're at home, under the lights, at Soldier Field in November, against an opponent whose passing game has apparently been discontinued.
The concern: And this is a real one.
Tampa Bay's defense is outstanding, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate.
The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and 4-2 in their last six meetings with Chicago.
The Bears are also coming off an emotional Monday night victory on a short week, which creates its own potential letdown situation. Cole Kmet is on injured reserve, too.
And if Irving runs for another 150 yards, Tampa can absolutely keep this game inside a touchdown.
But I'm betting Chicago gets ahead, makes Tampa abandon the run, and forces the Buccaneers to do something they haven't demonstrated they can do consistently.
Throw the football.
The Pick: Bears -6
COSTANZA PLAY OF THE WEEK (5-0-1):
EAGLES +3.5 VS. GIANTS
1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Every logical instinct says take the Giants.
Which means, naturally, we're taking the Eagles.
George Costanza built an entire philosophy around the idea that every instinct he'd ever had was wrong. And if you've watched enough NFL football, you've probably considered adopting that philosophy yourself.
So here we are.
Give me Philadelphia, give me the hook, and give me Bazooka Joe.
The Eagles have decided that six consecutive losses are enough and are benching Tanner McKee in favor of Joe Milton III.
This isn't an injury replacement.
This is a franchise looking around the room, realizing the season is slipping away, and deciding to throw a grenade into the quarterback room.
Two days before the change, Nick Sirianni was publicly backing McKee.
Then he apparently changed his mind.
Funny how six consecutive losses can do that.
Milton is now on his third team in three years, having spent time with Tennessee and Dallas before landing in Philadelphia.
He's a former Volunteer, a former Cowboy, and now the man responsible for saving the Eagles from themselves.
And if you've never watched Joe Milton throw a football, allow me to explain.
Imagine a quarterback who can stand flat-footed, flick his wrist, and launch a football approximately 60 yards without appearing to exert any physical effort whatsoever.
That's Joe Milton.
Accuracy? Sometimes.
Decision-making? We'll find out.
Arm strength? Enough to throw a football through the Liberty Bell.
The guy has an absolute cannon, and the locker room is already rallying around him.
Sometimes a team doesn't need a perfectly polished quarterback. Sometimes it needs a lunatic with a rocket launcher who hasn't been beaten down by six consecutive losses.
Now look at the alternative.
Philadelphia started 2-0 and has lost six straight. Since Jalen Hurts landed on injured reserve, the Eagles have lost by 11, 17, and 17 points.
They're 1-7 against the spread.
Absolutely disgusting.
Meanwhile, the Giants are 4-2-1, 5-2 ATS, and somehow the only team in the NFC East with a winning record.
They're coming off a bye after upsetting Houston, and seemingly every preview this week has New York winning this game.
Which is precisely why I don't want them.
The Giants have been without Jaxson Dart for two months, and credit where it's due. They've managed to keep the season alive despite playing with a backup quarterback.
But let's not pretend this is some offensive powerhouse.
They're still a team playing with spare parts, now being asked to lay more than a field goal on the road in a division rivalry.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve, Cam Skattebo is questionable, and the backfield is looking awfully thin.
That's not the kind of situation where I'm excited to lay 3.5 points in Philadelphia.
And then there's the total.
39.5.
That's a low number, and low totals make every point of the spread more valuable.
We're getting three and a half points in a game projected to produce fewer than 40 total.
That hook is enormous.
If this turns into the 20-17 rock fight the total suggests, we cash even if the Giants win.
But I'm not interested in sweating out some miserable backdoor cover.
I want the full Costanza experience.
I want Bazooka Joe launching footballs into the Philadelphia night. I want the Linc losing its collective mind. I want a quarterback nobody trusts leading a team nobody believes in to a win that makes absolutely no sense.
The Eagles beat the Giants twice last season.
Let's make it three straight.
The concern: Milton's arm is incredible, but there's a reason he's on his third team in three years.
Some of those deep balls might end up in the Delaware River.
And if Malik Nabers, who has 48 receptions for 605 yards, starts carving up Philadelphia's secondary, this could get ugly in a hurry.
But that's the entire point of the Costanza play.
We're not here because the numbers make perfect sense.
We're here because sometimes the NFL rewards the exact opposite of common sense.
The Costanza Pick: Eagles +3.5
THE WEEK 9 CARD
Seven plays. Six convictions. One complete violation of common sense.
Bengals/Falcons Over 52 | Sunday, 9:30 a.m.
Joe Burrow is playing MVP-caliber football, and Atlanta's defense isn't built to stop him. Give me points with breakfast.
Patriots -3 | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Buy low on New England, sell high on Green Bay, and let Foxborough welcome Tom Brady home.
Chiefs Team Total Over 27 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Kansas City gets a depleted Jets defensive interior after consecutive losses. Four touchdowns shouldn't be asking too much.
Panthers +3 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
A rested home underdog against a road favorite coming off its biggest win of the season. Classic letdown territory.
Cardinals +8.5 | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Gardner Minshew and the mustache against Drew Lock and an offense that consists primarily of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Give me the points.
Bears -6 | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Tampa Bay apparently forgot the forward pass exists. Chicago should remind them why that's a problem.
Costanza Special (5-0-1): Eagles +3.5 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Bazooka Joe. The Linc. A six-game losing streak. A quarterback with a cannon and absolutely nothing to lose.
What could possibly go wrong?
FINAL THOUGHTS
The beautiful thing about the NFL is that you can spend an entire week studying matchups, analyzing injuries, digging through advanced statistics, and convincing yourself you've found seven excellent opportunities.
And then some backup quarterback you've spent three paragraphs insulting throws for 350 yards and makes you question every decision you've ever made.
That's Sunday.
I like this card. I like the spots, I like the numbers, and I particularly like the idea of backing teams the public has already decided are dead.
But if there's one thing I've learned, it's that the NFL has absolutely no respect for how much time you spent preparing.
So we'll start the morning in Madrid with Joe Burrow, spend the afternoon hoping Drew Lock doesn't suddenly become Dan Marino, and finish the night asking Chicago to remember that throwing the football is still legal.
Somewhere in the middle of all that, Joe Milton is going to attempt a pass that either wins Philadelphia a football game or lands in New Jersey.
Either way, I intend to enjoy it.
Seven plays. One Costanza special. A full Sunday of questionable emotional investments.
See you on the other side
