Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado Preview and Predictions
I’m usually the first person to tell you when the UFC hands us a pile of shit and expects us to spend six hours watching it.
This is not one of those weeks.
I fucking love this Noche card.
No, it isn’t UFC 300 on paper. But start going fight by fight and there’s something interesting almost everywhere you look.
Jean Silva gets five rounds to make his case for a featherweight title shot. Brandon Moreno might be fighting to prove his days as an elite flyweight aren’t over. Alexa Grasso is a former champion sitting there as a sizable underdog. We’ve got prospects I’m ready to buy stock in, Mexican fighters getting their moment on Noche, live dogs, violent matchups and a bunch of fights where I actually have a strong opinion.
Even the prelims have shit I want to see.
Of course, the UFC couldn’t resist throwing Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes in there to keep us humble, but nobody’s perfect.
I think this card delivers.
Let’s get into it.
Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
I really don’t give Jose Miguel Delgado much of a chance in this fight.
He’s just up against it. It’s a lot to ask of him to step in on short notice against a fighter as talented and dangerous as Jean Silva. This is a huge step up in competition for Delgado, who I actually think has looked to regress a little bit in his last couple of fights.
He struggled mightily with Andre Fili in a fight where I thought he should have steamrolled him. Then, against Austin Bashi, there were times where Delgado didn’t look great. Bashi was actually able to hurt him a few times and do damage on the feet in a fight where Delgado should have had a huge advantage.
Now you’re asking him to deal with Jean Silva?
I think Silva is going to piece Delgado up on the feet, and honestly, he can win this fight in just about any fashion he wants. Silva does everything well, and I think he’s next in line for a title shot in the featherweight division with another big performance here.
One thing we learned in Silva’s last fight against Arnold Allen is that he doesn’t have to be finish-or-bust.
That was only a three-round fight, but cardio was absolutely not an issue. Silva had plenty of gas left in the tank at the end of three rounds, and more importantly, he showed that he can be cerebral. He doesn’t have to recklessly hunt a highlight-reel finish to get the job done.
Even in his loss to Diego Lopes on Noche last year, I thought the tide was really starting to turn in Silva’s favor. It looked like he was getting ready to take over that fight before he made a boneheaded mistake, rushed in with his head down and got caught by Lopes.
Now he gets five rounds.
I will give Delgado this: he’s tough. He’s not going to quit. He’s got that Mexican grit and toughness, and fighting on Noche is obviously a huge deal for him. I don’t expect him to just fold the first time Silva hits him with something big.
The problem is that there is just way too much of a disparity in skill and talent here.
Make no mistake about it: Jean Silva is going to beat the shit out of Jose Delgado.
The only question is whether Delgado is tough enough to survive all 25 minutes.
He might be tough enough to take two, three or maybe even four rounds of a beating before the accumulation of damage finally becomes too much. I also wouldn’t be completely shocked if Delgado’s toughness carries him all the way to the scorecards, where Silva would pick up a convincing decision.
But for the sake of making a prediction, I think the damage eventually becomes too much.
Prediction: Jean Silva by late finish
Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales
If Brandon Moreno still has another run left in him, this is the fight where we need to see it.
It’s kind of now or never for the former champion.
Moreno hasn’t looked great in his last two fights. Against Tatsuro Taira, he got himself into a terrible position. Taira took his back, flattened him out and was basically wailing on him until the referee had no choice but to step in.
Then Moreno fought super prospect Lone’er Kavanagh in Mexico City, and Kavanagh just looked faster, sharper and crisper in every facet of the game.
Moreno tried to push the wrestling in that fight and had basically no success with it, which became even more concerning after watching Brandon Royval dominate Kavanagh in the wrestling and grappling department before eventually choking him out.
Moreno just looked slow.
That being said, Joseph Morales is a pretty significant step down in competition for the former flyweight champion.
Morales is good, and believe it or not, he’s actually the same age as Moreno despite having far fewer fights on his résumé.
But should Joseph Morales really be favored in this fight?
Why?
Because he submitted the corpse of Matt Schnell, who at this point had absolutely no business being in the UFC? Is it the submission win over Alibi Idiris?
These aren’t exactly ringing endorsements on a résumé.
Morales also won a split decision in The Ultimate Fighter semifinal against Imanol Rodriguez, who does look like a nice prospect with a ton of power, but again, we’re talking about Brandon Moreno here.
Moreno has championship experience. He has fought the best of the best in this division for years.
And while this fight isn’t taking place in Mexico, it is Noche. This night means something to the Mexican fighters, and Moreno has been one of the faces of Mexican MMA for years.
I think Moreno’s experience is the biggest edge in this fight.
More than picking a side, though, I really like this fight to go the distance. I don’t see either guy finding a finish here.
For the sake of making a prediction, I’ll lean toward the former champion getting it done.
Prediction: Brandon Moreno by decision
Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki
Someone is getting the shit beaten out of them in this fight.
Possibly both of them.
Both of these guys crash the pocket, both bring volume and both are there to get hit. McMillen probably pushes the pressure more, while Rahiki is a little more of a sniper.
As much of a Tommy McMillen hater as I am, what he did in his last fight against Montes was very impressive. He brought the pace from the opening bell until the referee eventually had to step in and stop it.
Rahiki has shown that he packs a serious punch. Everything he throws is crisp and has weight behind it. He’s a very dangerous striker.
The problem is that he also takes a ton of damage.
In his first two UFC fights, Rahiki faced some pretty terrible competition, and even those guys were able to land clean on him. There were moments where you wondered whether Rahiki was even going to get out of there alive, let alone win.
Ultimately, though, he found his shot, showed off that serious power and prevailed.
That’s what makes this such an interesting fight. Both guys have that style where they’ll give one to take one, or take one to give one.
I just think McMillen’s volume is eventually going to become too much for Rahiki.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see McMillen use some of his wrestling here and show that he’s not just a one-trick pony.
As much as it pains me to say it, I think McMillen finds the finish.
Prediction: Tommy McMillen by TKO
Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso
I don’t understand this line.
Alexa Grasso is a former UFC champion, she’s coming off an extremely impressive performance, and we’re getting her as a pretty sizable underdog?
Manon Fiorot comes in off a knockout win over Jasmine Jasudavicius last fall. She entered that fight coming off her title loss to Valentina Shevchenko, which was a close but convincing decision for Shevchenko.
Fiorot is 36 years old now, and her chances at getting another title shot are probably behind her.
Now she’s fighting a very dangerous former champion in Grasso.
Grasso was champion at one point after submitting Shevchenko. It came after Shevchenko threw a sloppy kick, Grasso caught it, found her back and ultimately submitted her.
Those days looked like they might be long behind Grasso until her last fight against Maycee Barber.
Grasso looked crisp on the feet. She was sharp, put Barber’s lights out, and then on the way down to the ground somehow snagged a pretty vicious choke too.
She basically had a knockout and a submission in the same fight.
Now Grasso is a pretty big underdog here, and I really can’t justify that number.
Grasso has just as much big-fight experience as Fiorot, and I think she’s the more well-rounded fighter. She’s more dangerous on the feet and, frankly, I think she’s just the more dangerous fighter in general.
If Fiorot wins this fight, I think it’s by decision.
I definitely don’t want to lay a big number with Fiorot against somebody as experienced, dangerous and well-rounded as Grasso.
To me, this is dog or pass.
Prediction: Alexa Grasso
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes
Welcome to our weekly heavyweight dog shit bout.
These guys suck.
They’re underwhelming, they always seem to disappoint and leave you wanting more, and I’m not particularly impressed with what either of them has done lately.
Waldo Cortes Acosta comes in off a decision loss to Alexander Volkov at UFC 328. He was just so low-volume that night. I thought it was possible he might have done enough to get the decision, but he basically fought Volkov’s fight: low-volume striking at range.
Volkov’s length and kicks ultimately got him the win, but Waldo really didn’t do much of anything.
Before that, he knocked out Derrick Lewis, if you want to call it a knockout. Lewis seemingly found himself in the second round of a fight and decided it was time to hit the quit button.
Then there was that bizarre Ante Delija fight last fall.
Delija knocked Waldo out, or so we thought. Delija jumped on top of the cage and celebrated with his team before they went to the tape, ruled that there had been an eye poke and made him come back out and continue fighting.
When you have an adrenaline dump like that, it usually doesn’t end well.
Waldo eventually won, but I think you have to put an asterisk next to that one.
I’ll give Curtis Blaydes some credit. He was able to last in the cage last time against Josh Hokit, who brought nonstop volume for 15 straight minutes. Blaydes was also coming back from a serious knee injury after fighting Rizvan Kuniev basically on one knee and still walking out with a split decision.
But Blaydes is known for his wrestling, and we saw basically none of it with any success against Hokit.
Hokit stuffed the takedowns and, despite looking like he was on pretty tired legs after his first flurry, just kept coming forward. He never fell victim to anything Blaydes tried to throw at him in the wrestling department.
It was a great and exciting fight, but when a guy like Blaydes suddenly decides he doesn’t want to wrestle anymore and is going to stand and strike, it’s usually a recipe for disaster.
Picking a side here is tough.
If you forced me, I guess I’d lean Waldo simply because he’s a little fresher and hasn’t taken as much damage.
But ultimately, I think this fight goes to decision, and I have a feeling we’re going to be pretty underwhelmed by it.
Prediction: Fight to go the distance
David Martinez vs. Dan Ige
Dan Ige is dropping down to bantamweight after getting brutally knocked out by Melquizael Costa in his last fight.
That’s a major concern.
When older fighters start dropping down a weight class, it’s usually not a great sign. Going from featherweight to bantamweight concerns me a little less than when we see guys do it in the heavier divisions because the power doesn’t necessarily translate the same way, but it’s still something you have to consider.
Ige has 30 professional fights now, and that granite chin he used to have might not be there anymore after getting knocked out.
David Martinez, meanwhile, is a prospect on the rise.
He was supposed to fight Umar Nurmagomedov a few weeks ago but had to pull out with some kind of injury, allegedly. It kind of seemed like they wanted to get Song Yadong onto that card in China, let him fight in his home country and potentially set him up for bigger things in the bantamweight division if he pulled off the upset, which he did.
Now Martinez lands on Noche instead, which actually works out pretty well for him considering he’s Mexican and this is a big night for the Mexican fighters.
Martinez comes in off a pretty boring decision win against Chito Vera, but that’s just what Chito Vera fights have become.
You can’t really knock Martinez for it. He did what he was supposed to do and got the job done.
It wasn’t ultra-impressive. It was just a very workmanlike effort.
Now he gets Ige coming down in weight.
The one thing Martinez really needs to worry about is avoiding that big right hook from Ige. If he can do that, I think he should coast to victory.
This is another fight where I have two guys who I don’t really see finding a finish.
Prediction: David Martinez by decision
Tim Elliott vs. Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez should probably be a much bigger favorite here.
And the fact that he isn’t is a little concerning.
Tim Elliott just isn’t very good anymore.
He finds his random submission wins here and there, but whenever he faces better competition, they usually find a way to beat him.
In his last fight against Steve Erceg, Elliott made it to the final bell, but neither guy was ever really in much danger of being finished. I just came away from that fight thinking Elliott is probably on his way out.
He’s 39 years old now. He’s no spring chicken.
Chairez is 30, he’s Mexican and he’s tough. The last time he fought on a Noche card, he was in an absolute banger against Joshua Van, who is now the flyweight champion.
The problem with Chairez is that every time you think he’s finally turning the corner and is ready to put his name into the mix as a serious title contender, he does something to drop the ball or underperforms against somebody he should be killing.
That’s the cause for concern here.
However, I still think Chairez wins this fight. I would just be cautious in this spot.
Prediction: Edgar Chairez by submission
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Muslim Salikhov
For about five minutes, Muslim Salikhov scares the shit out of me if I’m holding a Bahamondes ticket.
After that?
Not so much.
Bahamondes is moving up to welterweight for this fight, and I think it’s a much-needed move. He was just huge for lightweight.
He’s coming off two straight decision losses, but that doesn’t tell the entire story of his last fight against Tofiq Musayev.
Bahamondes got totally hosed in that fight.
He was beating the shit out of Musayev until a blatant fence grab went uncalled. That completely changed the position, allowed Musayev to end up on top and led to him landing a nasty strike that cut Bahamondes wide open.
I mean, I’ve never seen so much blood in my life.
Bahamondes showed how tough he is and hung in there, but the cut was so bad that he couldn’t really do much afterward. Ultimately, I think he lost that fight because of the fence grab.
Muslim Salikhov is very dangerous in the first round, and I think that’s his only real path to victory in this one.
He needs to come out and jump Bahamondes early before Bahamondes can settle into the fight.
I think the move up to 170 will help Bahamondes’ durability and make him tougher to get out of there. If he can survive that early storm from Salikhov, I think the fight starts to swing heavily in his direction.
Bahamondes can start attacking the body, wear Salikhov down and eventually find what’s becoming a glass chin of Salikhov.
Survive the first round, and I think Bahamondes takes over and gets him out of there.
Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes by finish
Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos
I’m buying the Yousri Belgaroui stock.
He has really burst onto the scene since his Contender Series win and has looked better and more impressive with every fight.
Maybe all of those wins haven’t aged particularly well, but they were still big wins at the time.
More importantly, when you watch the tape, you can see the transformation he has made as an MMA fighter.
He has really figured out how to use his length and his sharp kickboxing to become a serious threat.
He’s dangerous.
Djorden Santos steps in for Kelvin Gastelum, who had to back out of this fight.
Santos has a cinder block for a head. He’s extremely difficult to finish. He’s not particularly skilled, but the guy can take a beating.
And I think that’s exactly what we’re going to watch him do on Saturday.
I expect Belgaroui to unload on him, out-skill him and kick his ass for three rounds.
Santos is tough enough to survive it, but I don’t think he’s good enough to win it.
Prediction: Yousri Belgaroui by decision
Drakkar Klose vs. Tommy Gantt
This feels like a changing-of-the-guard type of fight.
Drakkar Klose is 38 years old now, and we haven’t seen him since last August.
He took Edson Barboza to a decision in that fight. Barboza just retired after his last fight a few weeks ago, and we learned that he had been blind in one eye for quite some time.
So I don’t know how impressed we’re supposed to be with beating that version of Barboza.
Before that, Klose got knocked out by Joel Alvarez, who we’ve seen underperform and underwhelm since moving up to welterweight.
There’s really no point in going much further back than that.
That was then. This is now.
Tommy Gantt is a Daniel Cormier disciple. Cormier loves this kid, trains him and trains with him.
Gantt is a very impressive wrestler. He found a finish a few months ago in his UFC debut after earning his contract with a submission win over his arch nemesis Adam Livingston on Dana White’s Contender Series.
I think Gantt is going to use that wrestling against Klose on Saturday.
He also has a massive six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and I just think he’s going to have his way with Klose.
Maybe he has to wear him down for a round before finding the finish in the second or third, but I think this is Gantt’s fight.
Prediction: Tommy Gantt by finish
Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu
This might be one of the toughest fights on the entire card to call.
Rafa Garcia has really turned a corner in his last couple of fights. He trains with Cub Swanson at Bloodline MMA, and that gym is starting to look like the new Fighting Nerds.
Everybody they send out seems to perform well. Their fighters are displaying high IQ, and you can see improvement in every area of their craft.
Rafa Garcia is a prime example because of how good he has looked in his last two fights.
Rongzhu comes in off a finish against Victor Garcia on Road to UFC. I don’t know how impressed we’re supposed to be by that.
Before that, he fought Austin Hubbard, who is no longer in the UFC and lost a ton of fights.
Rongzhu did pick up a win against Cody Steele before that, and that one has aged pretty well because Steele looks like a promising prospect.
And before that, Rongzhu was beating Taco Padilla for two rounds before Padilla landed an elbow that opened him up badly enough for the doctor to stop the fight.
Both fighters have plenty to like and a few things to dislike.
Ultimately, I think it’s dog or pass because of how good Rafa Garcia has looked since really starting to work with Cub Swanson.
He’s also a Mexican fighter competing on Noche.
Dog or pass.
I’d probably just pass altogether, but for the sake of making a prediction in this write-up, I’ll take Garcia.
Prediction: Rafa Garcia
Sean King III vs. Jessie Rosas
We have two fighters coming in off facing some of the worst competition and lowest-level MMA you will ever see in your entire life.
So naturally, I have an opinion.
Jessie Rosas is absolutely terrible.
He has no business being in the UFC, and if it weren’t for his brother Raul Rosas Jr., aka Chiwiwis, he would be nowhere near the UFC Octagon.
He’s that bad.
I can’t really speak to how good Sean King III is because he also comes out of fights against some very, very low-level competition.
But he is undefeated, and he has three straight finishes this year, so at least he’s coming into this fight in good form.
According to his nickname, he’s the King of New Orleans.
That’s got to mean something.
He also has a big size advantage over Rosas.
Ultimately, I think King just finds a finish here. I think Jessie Rosas is that low-level.
Despite Rosas being a Mexican fighter on Noche, I think he gets destroyed on the feet and King comes away with a knockout victory.
Prediction: Sean King III by knockout
JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin
I think we might be watching the beginning of something with Regina Tarin.
JJ Aldrich comes in off one of the all-time robbery victories I can remember against Jamey-Lyn Horth, in Canada no less.
I thought it was a clear 30-27 for Horth. Maybe 29-28 if you really wanted to find a round for Aldrich.
Then they read the scorecards, and somehow the only three people in the world who thought JJ Aldrich won the fight were sitting at the judges’ table that night.
Aldrich got the win, but she looked bad.
Horth did a great job managing distance that night and, I mean, she just beat her. I’m still in shock that they gave Aldrich the win.
Regina Tarin, meanwhile, comes in off a very, very, very impressive UFC debut against Ernesta Kareckaite.
Tarin took that fight on extremely short notice. I think it was something like two or three days. She came in, brought pressure for 15 minutes, walked forward and landed shot after shot.
And Kareckaite is no slouch.
She has looked pretty good as a professional and came away with a split decision over Carli Judice in an absolute war on Dana White’s Contender Series. We know how good Judice has become, so that victory has aged extremely well.
Aldrich has always been a fighter who is there to get hit. Her best days are behind her. She doesn’t wear damage particularly well.
She gets beat up, and it looks like she gets beat up.
I think Tarin might be legit.
In a flyweight division with a lot of question marks right now, I think she could become a serious contender.
Tarin is only 21 years old, and I think she has a very bright future in the UFC. I expect her to continue that upward trajectory on Saturday toward becoming a legitimate title contender.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if she finds a finish here.
Prediction: Regina Tarin to win
There are UFC cards where writing the preview feels like homework.
This wasn’t one of them.
The deeper I got into this card, the more opinions I had, and usually that’s a pretty good sign. There are spots where I think the UFC is feeding an old name to somebody younger, spots where I think the betting market has completely lost its mind, and a few prospects I’m probably going to regret becoming emotionally invested in.
Perfect.
Now comes the fun part: watching 13 fights completely destroy the confidence I spent all week building.
That’s why we watch this stupid sport. You can break down every matchup, watch all the tape, convince yourself you know exactly what’s going to happen, and then somebody gets caught with a spinning elbow, grabs the fucking fence, or two judges hand in scorecards from a fight that apparently took place in another dimension.
So the work is done. The picks are in.
All that’s left is to crack a beer, turn on the fights and see how full of shit I am.
Enjoy Noche!
