UFC Fight Night China: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Full Card Preview and Predictions
Set your alarms, fight fans. We’re kicking things off at the beautiful hour of 3 AM EST for UFC Fight Night in China.
Honestly, if you’ve been waiting for permission to sleep through a UFC card, this is probably the one. This card is brutal. We’ve got massive favorites, questionable UFC-level talent, and a few fights that might have you questioning why you sacrificed a perfectly good night of sleep for this.
But I love this sport way too damn much to miss one, so naturally I’ll be awake at 3 AM watching two guys I’ve barely heard of fight in an empty arena halfway across the world.
At least the main event gives us something to look forward to. Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Song Yadong in a legitimately interesting matchup at the top of an otherwise rough card.
Get the coffee ready, question your life choices, and let’s break this thing down.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong:
Umar comes in off a snoozer against Figgy, but he does what Team Khabib does…..wins fights. He’s not flashy, he’s not exciting, but he’s so good technically and he just knows how to win fights.
Song comes in off a more exciting win over the same Figgy, but Song found a choke in the 2nd round and ended things right there. It wasn’t exactly the most extreme or aggressive-looking guillotine, but ultimately got him to tap.
Song is a good fighter with a really good skill set, but this is another guy with a lot of cage time racked up and this is his third fight this year.
I don’t want to endorse a -600 dog, but I think Umar makes this look rather easy. I don’t think Umar finishes this thing and with that lack of finishing threat, you definitely don’t want to lay that number. Umar by decision at -170 is a good option or the fight to go at -225.
Prediction:
Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes:
This is the toughest fight of the night to call. Where has Yan been? She’s spent a lot of minutes in the octagon over her career and all of a sudden she wants to be inactive? It smells like shit in Denmark.
Gomes is far from a world beater, but Yan can be taken down and Gomes has a good grappling game.
Yan may be the beneficiary of some home cooking from the judges and for that reason I’m going to stay off picking Gomes in this one. Yan is also the better and obviously way more accomplished fighter here. She’s fought and beaten some of the best this division has to offer, but the inactivity worries me.
I don’t think we see a finish. I know, shocker. A women’s fight going to decision. But I think we see it again.
Prediction:
Fight Goes the Distance
Lean Yan.
Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura:
We’re going to see a standing clash in this one and for me, it’s very, very simple.
Kai Asakura is the better fighter in every tangible and intangible measurement. He’s the better striker, he’s the faster fighter, he’s younger, he’s bigger, and he’s more dangerous.
I am very confident Asakura gets it done in this one and I think he gets the stoppage earlier rather than later.
Prediction:
Kai Asakura R1-2 KO
Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji:
These guys are back for take two.
Supposedly, Alex Perez won Round 1 on the judges’ scorecards before getting blitzed by Sumudaerji in Round 2. I mean, the momentum of this fight couldn’t have been going better for Su before a nut shot ended things.
I hate to call bullshit on a nut shot, but bullshit.
Realistically, how much could Alex Perez have changed and adjusted in just three months? Did he become a cardio machine with elite wrestling in three months? I highly, highly doubt it.
I think we see Alex Perez come out strong like usual, and fade like usual. Su just needs to weather an early storm, which we saw him do in take one of this matchup, and I think we see it again.
Prediction:
Sumudaerji
Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.:
Would it be a UFC card without two big low-level guys facing off?
Ce has a Junior Tafa-level ground game. He can’t stuff a TD. He can’t get up off the mat when he’s taken down. But his striking on the feet is OK. It’s slow, but somewhat effective.
Levi Rodrigues is trash.
If he can land a takedown and grapple, he’ll win this fight with ease. It’s dog or pass, but I highly recommend pass.
Prediction:
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas:
Bilal “The Indoninja” Hasan makes his long-anticipated debut. Not really. About 17 days.
He won his fight on Week 1 of DWCS about as quickly as a flyweight could win a fight.
Hasan is another guy who’s -600 and it seems wide. Rojas is not bad at all. He’s a lot better than the can Hasan just finished on Contender Series.
Rojas has a chin on him and has the striking to earn the respect of any opponent lined up across from him.
This is a big step up in competition for both of these guys, but I think we see a war. Hasan should win, but the number is too wide.
Prediction:
Over 1.5 Rounds
Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima:
Batbayar throws bombs. He’s definitely dangerous on the feet and isn’t afraid to come forward, but he’s really just a bad fighter.
If he doesn’t find that one punch or catch his opponent putting their neck on a silver platter for him to squeeze, he’s useless.
Lima is solid all around. He just can be so lackadaisical and so low-volume that he gets himself in trouble that way, but the bottom line is that he’s a UFC-level fighter.
Batbayar is not.
Prediction:
Andre Lima
Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas:
Rei Tsuruya is a deserved favorite in this fight, but -600 is crazy.
Borjas is a dynamic striker with the power and speed to end a fight with one punch.
This fight is pretty simple to break down, however. The problem for Borjas is Rei is probably just going to grab ahold of Borjas and Borjas won’t be able to do shit about it.
Will Rei be able to take his back and find a submission? I think that’s the most likely outcome.
Prediction:
Rei Tsuruya by Submission
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson:
Jack Jenkins has the better skill set. He has a nasty kick game, but he’s severely undersized in this matchup.
Sean Woodson looks like he’s from another planet. The 6’2 featherweight is just an anomaly.
He was on a really nice UFC run before getting stopped by Dan Ige, but Ige is just better than Jenkins.
Woodson should roll in this matchup so long as he stays safe from those Jack Jenkins calf kicks. That is my major concern from being all in on Woodson in this one because I really do think his size will give Jenkins a world of trouble.
That said, I think Jenkins is tough enough to survive to the final bell in this one, but ultimately think Woodson gets his hand raised.
Prediction:
Sean Woodson by Decision
Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi:
Xiao Long got fucked in his last fight against Cody Garbrandt. He had two points taken for kicks to the balls, but I still thought Xiao did enough to get his hand raised.
Nuzzi is a pure striker. He moves well and is pretty sound defensively in the striking department. His problem is his grappling sucks.
Ironically enough, Nuzzi’s last fight was ruled a NC because of a kick to the balls.
I’m not a huge fan of either of these guys, but I trust Xiao a little more.
Don’t forget your cups.
Prediction:
Xiao Long by Decision
Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago:
Hector Santiago comes in from Money Moicano’s promotion. That’s a new one.
Lawrence Lui is a Road to UFC guy. Not exactly known for producing elite UFC talent.
I thought Lui was lucky to get his hand raised in that split-decision win in his last fight.
These guys are both here in the UFC for a good time, not a long time. I don’t like either of these guys. I’m not sure either is really UFC caliber.
Santiago has a lot of kickboxing and Muay Thai fights on his résumé and he has the power to present the threat of a finish here.
Lui is just way too big of a favorite here. It’s definitely dog or pass for me.
Prediction:
Hector Santiago
Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri:
Jingnan Xiong. Took her until she was 38 years old to get her shot in the big show and it was a disaster.
She got dog-walked by a pillow-fisted fighter in her 40s. How’s that for a UFC debut?
Xiong sucks. She showed absolutely nothing in the fight against Angela Hill and I’m surprised we’re seeing her again, even in China. I’m totally out on her.
Polastri is no world beater, but she has a pretty good strength of schedule. She showed a lack of IQ and judgment in that last fight with Alencar, but she’s at least UFC caliber.
Prediction:
Julia Polastri by Decision
Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson:
Well, if you’re waking up at 3 AM to watch this fight, you may have bigger problems.
Ding Meng has some serious mileage on him with 45 career professional fights already.
To me, this fight ultimately comes down to Cam Nelson just not being UFC quality. He’s pretty bad.
His title fight in whatever bum-fuck regional Canadian promotion he comes from came at welterweight against a guy who was fighting at featherweight and looked it.
Meng isn’t a killer, but he’ll have the home crowd behind him and with a Canada card coming up next month, you’d have to think if Nelson was worth a fuck he’d be fighting on that card instead.
I think the experience and strength of schedule here, while not overly impressive for Meng, is still significantly better than anything Nelson has faced.
Prediction:
Ding Meng
There you have it. Thirteen fights, a handful of ridiculous betting lines, some questionable UFC-level talent, and hopefully a few spots where we can actually make some money.
The biggest theme on this card is pretty simple: don’t pay the tax on these massive favorites. Umar, Hasan and Tsuruya should all win, but laying -600 on anybody in MMA is a great way to turn a three-hour fight card into a three-hour anxiety attack. There are better ways to attack those fights, and there are a few underdogs on this card that deserve a much closer look than the odds suggest.
Asakura is probably my favorite spot of the night, while Sumudaerji is another one I’m willing to trust after what we saw the first time around with Perez. And somewhere along the way, someone is almost certainly getting kicked in the balls. Based on this card’s recent history, that might actually be the safest bet on the board.
It’s not the prettiest card the UFC has ever put together, but ugly cards have a funny way of producing absolute chaos.
See ya next week.
