2026 US Open Women’s Draw Preview
The final Grand Slam of the year is here, and if there’s one thing I learned while going through this women’s draw, it’s that I have absolutely no idea what the hell is about to happen.
And I mean that in the best way possible.
Aryna Sabalenka is the world No. 1, but she hasn’t looked like the world No. 1 in months. Elena Rybakina enters Flushing Meadows with major questions about her health. Meanwhile, Jessica Pegula is playing some of the best tennis of her career, Iga Swiatek is lurking, Coco Gauff is rolling, Amanda Anisimova is back with her old coach, and there are dangerous players scattered throughout seemingly every section of the draw.
There’s no dominant favorite here. There’s no player I’m looking at and saying, “Yep, nobody is beating her.”
That makes this thing a hell of a lot more fun.
So, let’s go quarter by quarter through the 2026 US Open women’s draw and try to figure out who the hell is still going to be standing two weeks from now.
Q1: The Sabalenka Quarter
Nothing has changed with the world No. 1 since our Wimbledon preview. There’s still something going on with Aryna Sabalenka.
She’s playing like shit.
She’s played like shit since sweeping the Sunshine Double, and now she shows up in Flushing Meadows sitting in one of the toughest quarters in this year’s draw.
This quarter features Diana Shnaider, who knocked Sabalenka out of the French Open in comeback fashion, including handing her a third-set bagel. There’s Barbora Krejcikova, a multiple-time Grand Slam champion who is never somebody you want to see across the net at a major. There’s Marta Kostyuk, in the middle of a breakout season and looking for her third consecutive Grand Slam semifinal. And then there’s Linda Noskova, the reigning Wimbledon champion.
So, yeah. Good luck, Aryna.
In Sabalenka’s current form, I’m not even convinced she gets far enough for us to start worrying about some of those names. I can legitimately see her losing as early as the third round to Krejcikova.
Ultimately, I think Q1 comes down to a potential fourth-round matchup between Kostyuk and Noskova. Both are playing tremendous tennis, both are having career years, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner of that match eventually take the entire quarter.
I lean Kostyuk.
Q1 Pick: Marta Kostyuk
Q2: Pegula’s Quarter to Lose
There’s plenty of talent in Q2, but unlike Q1, I think this one is pretty simple.
This is Jessica Pegula’s quarter to lose.
Pegula should cruise through the top half of Q2. I just don’t see anybody there representing anything close to the type of threat necessary to send Jess packing early.
The bottom half is a different story.
Karolina Muchova, Elina Svitolina and Emma Navarro are the names that stand out as the biggest potential threats. All three are capable of making a run and giving Pegula problems if they meet her later in the tournament.
But I keep coming back to the same thing: this feels like Pegula’s best chance to finally win a Grand Slam.
She’s in raging form, she’s performed extremely well at the US Open over the last few years, and perhaps most importantly, her kryptonite, Aryna Sabalenka, is nowhere near the form necessary to take down a player like Jess right now.
The opportunity is sitting right there.
Jessica Pegula is my pick to win Q2, and I think she goes all the way and finally takes home her first Grand Slam title.
Q2 Pick: Jessica Pegula
Q3: A Hungry Anisimova
The more I go through this draw, the more I realize just how wide open these quarters are.
Q3 certainly isn’t lacking talent.
French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, Amanda Anisimova, Iva Jovic, Alexandra Eala, Sara Bejlek and Coco Gauff all loom large in what should be a fascinating quarter.
Coco probably has the clearest path of anybody in Q3, but a potential matchup with either Jovic or Eala isn’t exactly a cakewalk. Both had Coco on the ropes this season, and Eala was dominating her at Indian Wells this spring before Coco was forced to retire from the match with an injury.
That being said, the Coco Gauff we’re seeing now is a much different player than the one we saw during the early part of the season. I think she ultimately proves to be too much for either Jovic or Eala.
The top half of Q3 should see Mirra Andreeva cakewalking her way into the fourth round, where I have her slated to meet Amanda Anisimova.
Amanda has a lot riding on this tournament. She has a ton of points to defend at the US Open, and an early exit could send her free-falling down the rankings. She’s also reunited with Rick Vleeshouwer, the coach she worked with last year and earlier this season, following their brief split.
I think Amanda, especially back on the hard courts in Flushing Meadows, finally makes the run we’ve been waiting all year to see from her.
She’s also had success against Coco Gauff throughout her career, which becomes awfully interesting if those two eventually meet in the quarterfinals.
Give me the hungry Anisimova.
Q3 Pick: Amanda Anisimova
Q4: Iga, Osaka and a Question Mark Named Rybakina
Much like Q1, Q4 features one of the highest-ranked players in the world who nobody seems particularly afraid to play right now.
Elena Rybakina is playing about as well as Sabalenka at the moment, which is to say, not very well.
The difference is that Rybakina’s problems appear to be physical.
She retired during her quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati. Before that injury, it actually looked like getting back onto the hard courts might have been exactly what Rybakina needed to get her season back on track. She made a run to the final in Canada before Cincinnati and appeared to finally be finding something.
Now, all of that momentum may be for naught.
There were even rumors that Rybakina could pull out of the US Open altogether. As of now, she remains in the draw, but her health is obviously something to watch.
Healthy Rybakina or not, I still think this quarter runs through two women: Naomi Osaka and Iga Swiatek.
I think that quarterfinal matchup is inevitable. Well, as inevitable as anything can possibly be in women’s tennis.
And when we get there, I’m taking Iga.
That sets up a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final between Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek, this time with a trip to the US Open final on the line.
But this time, I think Amanda gets her revenge.
I’ve got Anisimova taking down Iga and punching her ticket to an all-American US Open final against Jessica Pegula.
Q4 Pick: Iga Swiatek
My Semifinalists
Marta Kostyuk vs. Jessica Pegula
Amanda Anisimova vs. Iga Swiatek
From there, I have Pegula taking care of Kostyuk and Anisimova getting some revenge against Iga in a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final.
That leaves us with an all-American final in Flushing Meadows.
My Final
Jessica Pegula vs. Amanda Anisimova
And I’m riding with Jess.
Pegula has been knocking on the door at the US Open for years, and this feels like the best opportunity she’s ever had to finally kick the damn thing down. The form is there. The draw is there. And some of the women who have made her life miserable at majors aren’t exactly entering New York firing on all cylinders.
Jessica Pegula is my 2026 US Open women’s champion.
Will this bracket survive the first week? Considering it’s women’s tennis, probably not.
But that’s a problem for next week.
