US Open 2026 Men’s Preview: With Jannik Sinner Out, the Door Is Wide Open
Well, things just got a whole lot more interesting in Flushing.
Jannik Sinner is officially out of the 2026 US Open, and just like that, the entire complexion of this tournament has changed. One of the biggest favorites to win the whole damn thing is gone before the first ball is even struck, and suddenly this draw feels a hell of a lot more wide open.
Instead of spending the next two weeks wondering who can possibly stop Sinner, we’ve got legitimate questions in every quarter. Alexander Zverev is now the No. 1 seed. Novak Djokovic is still the GOAT, but basically plays tennis by appointment only these days. Carlos Alcaraz is coming back from a wrist injury and nobody really knows how close to 100% he actually is. Taylor Fritz has a knee that we’ll be monitoring every time he changes directions. And behind them is a group of young guys who have been waiting for exactly this type of opportunity to kick the door down.
This is what makes Grand Slams fun. The favorite is gone, the draw is loaded with landmines, and there are legitimate paths to the semifinals for guys we probably wouldn’t have been talking about nearly as seriously if Sinner were here.
So with Sinner sitting this one out, let’s break this draw down quarter by quarter and figure out who the hell is making it to the final four.
Quarter 1
This is a very fun quarter.
Alexander Zverev is the No. 1 seed overall, but if he wants to make his way into the semifinals, he’s going to have to earn it. Guys like Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur, and Rafael Jodar are all lurking in his path, and I think Jodar is particularly dangerous in Q1.
The only real question with Jodar is whether his body can hold up over the course of another Grand Slam. We saw him fall apart a little bit physically at Wimbledon, but since returning to the hard courts, he’s been absolutely firing. If the body cooperates, I think he can make some serious noise in Flushing.
Musetti is another guy to watch. If he can rediscover the form we saw from him the last time he played a hard-court Slam before the groin injury that basically cost him his entire season, he has the type of forehand and all-around game that could give Zverev some legitimate problems.
There are a few other interesting names scattered throughout this quarter. Casper Ruud is here, although he’s struggled to consistently find his best tennis on anything that isn’t clay over the last couple of years. Zizou Bergs continues to be a player on the rise, but his path to daylight in this quarter is absolutely brutal. Then there’s Luciano Darderi, who could have either Arthur Fery or Musetti waiting for him in Round 3.
Zverev is obviously the favorite, but where’s the fun in picking the No. 1 seed?
I’m going back to the well with Jodar. I love the way he’s playing on hard courts, and if his body holds up, I think he’s capable of beating anybody in this section.
Q1 Pick: Rafael Jodar
Quarter 2
I genuinely can’t decide which quarter is tougher between Q2 and Q4, but this might be the official Quarter of Death.
Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jakub Mensik, Taylor Fritz, Flavio Cobolli, and Learner Tien all have legitimate chances to come out of this thing.
Of that group, Fritz has the cleanest path to the quarterfinals. Flavio Cobolli is the biggest obstacle standing in his way, and on a hard court, Fritz is simply the superior player.
With Taylor, it really comes down to one thing: How healthy is that knee?
He’s been nursing the chronic knee issue since the end of last year, and over two weeks of best-of-five tennis, that matters. But if the knee holds up and Fritz is anywhere close to 100%, this is his quarter to lose.
FAA or Mensik would likely await him in the quarterfinals. We keep waiting for Mensik to make that massive breakthrough and establish himself as a legitimate Grand Slam winner, and I still believe it’s coming. FAA, meanwhile, made the semifinals here last year and obviously knows how to win on these courts.
But on American soil, in front of that New York crowd, I’m taking Fritz over both of them.
Just keep that damn knee together for two weeks.
Q2 Pick: Taylor Fritz
Quarter 3
Now this is where things could get weird.
Daniil Medvedev has shown us time and time again over the last two years that he simply cannot be trusted at a Grand Slam. And if his match gets to a fifth set? Forget about it. Start looking for the exits.
I think we see yet another early departure from Medvedev.
He’s still waiting to find out who his qualifier opponent will be in Round 1, but it doesn’t get much easier after that. A potential showdown with Raphael Collignon in Round 2 or Arthur Rinderknech in Round 3 are both matches I could very easily see Medvedev losing.
Also lurking in the top half of this quarter is Frances Tiafoe, who is playing extremely good tennis right now, along with Valentin Vacherot, who we’ve already seen go on stretches where he looks capable of beating just about anybody in the sport.
And then we get to the bottom half.
The GOAT.
Novak Djokovic basically plays tennis by appointment only at this stage of his career. He’s earned that right. The man has accomplished everything there is to accomplish in this sport about 14 times over. But the lack of consistent match play has also come back to bite him in the ass.
By name, Djokovic has a favorable draw. In reality, I’m not convinced it’s quite that simple.
Brandon Nakashima potentially awaits in Round 4, and with the way Nakashima has been playing over the last few weeks, I absolutely believe he can send the GOAT packing.
Djokovic could also have to deal with Matteo Berrettini, who showed some signs this summer of rediscovering that old form, and young wildcard Martin Landaluce. Landaluce has already shown the ability to beat some of the top men on tour. His problem is that you never know which version of him is going to show up.
To me, Q3 is the chaos quarter.
Give me an Arthur Rinderknech vs. Brandon Nakashima quarterfinal, and with a spot in the US Open semifinals on the line, I’ll ride with the American on home soil.
Q3 Pick: Brandon Nakashima
Quarter 4
And here comes the other absolute gauntlet.
Of course, all of this might mean absolutely nothing if Carlos Alcaraz comes back and is actually 100% healthy.
The problem is, how the hell are we supposed to believe that he is?
Carlitos has missed significant time with a wrist injury, and wrist injuries scare the shit out of me when we’re talking about tennis players. They can be devastating. He was fortunate enough to avoid surgery, and I genuinely hope he’s 100% or at least somewhere close to it because there is nobody in this sport more electric or more talented than Carlos Alcaraz when he’s healthy.
Yeah, you heard me, Sinner.
Fuck you.
Anyway…
This quarter is absolutely loaded.
Ben Shelton. Arthur Fils. Jiri Lehecka. Alexander Bublik. Tommy Paul. And that doesn’t even include dangerous guys like Tomas Machac and Hubert Hurkacz.
This is going to be fun.
Fils is a top-five talent in this sport when he’s healthy, and after the biggest tournament win of his career in Cincinnati, where his body finally held together long enough for us to see just how brilliant he can be, he comes into New York with an enormous amount of momentum.
Then you have Bublik, who has shown that when his head is screwed on straight, he’s one of the most naturally talented players on tour. That serve alone gives him so many free points that when the rest of his game is clicking, he’s a nightmare to deal with.
And then there’s American sensation Ben Shelton.
Shelton has had a brutal year at the Slams, with a first-round departure at the French Open followed by a second-round exit at Wimbledon. The draw should allow him to cruise into the fourth round here, but if Arthur Fils is standing on the other side of the net when he gets there, we could have a problem.
So Q4 really comes down to Alcaraz.
If Carlitos is healthy, he’s the best player in this quarter and I expect him to get through it.
I just don’t trust that he’s there yet.
So screw it. We’re taking a swing.
Fils just won the biggest tournament of his life in Cincinnati. He’s healthy, he’s confident, and we finally got a glimpse of what this guy looks like when his body lets his talent do the talking.
Let’s see if he can carry it from Cincinnati all the way to Flushing.
Q4 Pick: Arthur Fils
Sinner being out completely changes this tournament, and I fucking love the chaos it creates.
We’re looking at a US Open where the No. 1 seed isn’t exactly unbeatable, Djokovic is showing up for his quarterly tennis appointment, Alcaraz is coming back with a wrist that we’re all just supposed to trust, and half the field feels like they have a legitimate argument for why they can make a run.
My four semifinal picks are Rafael Jodar, Taylor Fritz, Brandon Nakashima, and Arthur Fils. Is that what the oddsmakers are expecting? Absolutely fucking not. But picking Zverev, Djokovic, Alcaraz, and calling it a day isn’t why we’re here.
Give me the young guys. Give me the Americans feeding off a completely unhinged New York crowd. Give me some five-set disasters at 1:30 in the morning. Give me somebody we never expected playing the match of his life on Arthur Ashe.
The men’s draw just got blown wide open.
Time to see who has the balls to walk through it.
